From
the Paved State
Back to
the Garden State
Mobility without Highways for
New Jersey
Alain L. Kornhauser
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Research Program
Princeton University
Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY
September 16, 2008
Background
• I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years
• In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of
progress:
– A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said:
“Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future…
And Always will be!!!”
• But we have made progress:
– Morgantown has proven that it can be done
– APMs are a standard of every modern airport
– Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous,
reliable and cheap
– There is broad movement towards energy independence and
alternatives to the petroleum economy
September 16, 2008
So…
• Premise:
– NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908
• A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)
September 16, 2008
Looking Back
• let’s look at the automobile:
Daimler, 1888
• In the beginning, it takes a while
September 16, 2008
Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908
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September 16, 2008
Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was paved
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Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908
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Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907
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Finally:
Automobile Congestion 1968 - present
September 16, 2008
Starting to Look Forward
Daimler, 1888
Morgantown, 1973
September 16, 2008
So…
1888
1908
1988
1973
2073
September 16, 2008
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf
September 16, 2008
PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take?
• Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class
(Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years
• Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips
+ access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila
• Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations
all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/
September 16, 2008
Sketch Planning Process
• Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose
• Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide
spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and
Physical constraints
• Manually locate all stations and interconnection
• Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow
the trips on the interconnected network.
• Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection
September 16, 2008
Basic NJ Transport Stats
Element
Value
Population (2006 est.)
8.725 million
Growth rate
3.7% (6.4% nw)
Population density
1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US)
190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps
(Hudson)
Persons < 5 years old
6%
Persons 5-17
18%
Persons 18-64
63%
Persons 65 and over
13%
Total Person trips per day
29.46M
2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by
NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile)
$24B
Source of Electricity Generation
Nuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%;
Renewables: < 0.2%
September 16, 2008
Briefly on Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf
September 16, 2008
OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008
EIA World oil Demand,
September 16, Nov
2008 12, 2008: 85.89 Mbpd
Glouchester County
September 16, 2008
Essex County
September 16, 2008
Middlesex County
September 16, 2008
Morris County
September 16, 2008
Passaic County
September 16, 2008
Sussex County
September 16, 2008
Union County
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Warren County
September 16, 2008
Number of Stations by County & Main Trip End
County
Transp
School
Home
Recre
Office
Industry
Public
Shop
Religious
MultiUse
Other
TOTAL
Atlantic
-
17
-
1
18
114
8
-
3
30
-
191
Bergen
28
217
394
47
81
37
15
32
17
249
-
1,117
Burlington
1
69
24
52
188
76
40
54
2
85
6
597
Cape May
11
30
173
46
17
217
38
18
47
351
28
976
2
37
106
7
68
86
24
27
2
78
-
437
18
30
102
237
9
9
15
92
-
83
-
595
Gloucester
2
103
192
9
20
9
3
13
6
55
-
412
Hudson
7
37
58
154
12
15
7
113
-
64
-
467
Hunterdon
2
39
107
26
21
34
25
44
9
78
20
405
Mercer
5
85
43
18
89
22
21
28
7
89
6
413
Middlesex
11
15
224
16
15
88
-
2
-
70
3
444
Monmouth
31
25
75
27
62
6
8
10
19
66
6
335
Morris
14
125
408
55
50
12
16
16
20
127
15
858
Ocean
11
105
55
60
76
69
52
56
-
42
14
540
Passaic
38
152
285
110
104
65
38
57
71
262
3
1,185
Salem
4
26
45
5
73
27
13
24
1
67
-
285
Somerset
7
39
330
19
31
10
2
23
6
94
7
568
Sussex
3
56
74
68
51
41
16
38
4
37
21
409
Union
16
48
99
112
91
26
45
57
-
83
-
577
Warren
11
42
217
45
55
32
28
20
1
22
11
484
TOALS
222
1,297
3,011
1,114
1,131
995
414
724
215
2,032
140
11,295
Cumberland
Essex
September 16, 2008
County
Atlantic
Bergen
Burlington
Stations
191
1,117
597
Miles
526
878
488
County
Stations
Middlesex
444
Monmouth
335
Morris
858
Camden
Cape May
Cumberland
482
976
437
355 Ocean
497 Passaic
1,009 Salem
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
595
412
467
295 Somerset
435 Sussex
122 Union
Hunterdon
Mercer
405
413
483 Warren
403 Total
September 16, 2008
Miles
679
565
694
540
1185
285
1,166
1,360
772
568
409
577
433
764
254
484
11,295
437
12,261
Bottom Line
Element
Value
PRT Trips per day (90%)
26.51M
Peak hour trips (15%)
3.98M
Fleet size
530K
Fleet Cost $B
$53B @ $100K/vehicle
Stations
11,295
Station Cost
$28B @ $2M/Station
Guideway
12,265 miles
Guideway Cost
$61B @ $5M/mile
Total Capital Cost
$143B
September 16, 2008
Conclusions
• It’s a lot
• It does a lot
• It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility
patterns
• We should be able to do better
• Thank you
alaink@princeton.edu
www.princeton.edu/~alaink
September 16, 2008