U.S.
Super-Regional Testbed for Improving Forecasts of
Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico Coasts
The Role of the SURA Testbed in the
Improvement of U.S. Coastal and
Estuarine Prediction
John Harding, Northern Gulf Institute
Carl Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Rich Signell, United States Geological Survey
Coastal Zone 2011
19 July2011
U.S.
Super-Regional Testbed Goals
1. Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis and
visualization of all ocean model data produced by the
Federal Backbone and the IOOS Regions.
2. Develop skill metrics and assess models in three
different regions and dynamical regimes
3. Transition models, tools, toolkits and other capabilities
to federal operational facilities
4. Build stronger relationships between academia and
operational centers through collaboration
http://testbed.sura.org/
U.S.
IOOS Testbed Team
Structure
Testbed
Management
25 members
Don Wright, SURA
8 members
Testbed Advisory
Evaluation Group
Rich Signell, USGS
Doug Levin, NOAA/IOOS
Liz Smith, SURA
Cyber
Infrastructure
Eoin Howlett, ASA
20 members
21 members
17 members
Estuarine Hypoxia
Shelf Hypoxia
Coastal Inundation
Chesapeake Bay
Gulf of Mexico
Gulf and East Coast
Carl Friedrichs, VIMS
John Harding, NGI
Rick Luettich, UNC-CH
http://testbed.sura.org/
Inundation
Extra-tropical – Gulf of Maine
Tropical – Gulf of Mexico
- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid
- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)
- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment
using existing IMEDS tool
-Extensive observational data sets for historical
storms Ike and Rita in standard formats
-SURA has secured NSF TeraGrid supercomputer
resources
Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay
Extratropical Grid
Domains
CI Challenge (unstructured grids & multi-plots)
Gulf of Maine with high resolution nesting in Scituate, MA
5620 nodes
10 m – 1 km horiz resolution
IMEDS – Interactive Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System
CI Challenge (tools)
•Stand-alone desktop model validation toolkit
•Based on NOAA standards
•Robust error metrics: Erms, bias, Scatter Index, Skill Score
•Explore model errors as a function of time, space, event
Parameters Added To-Date
Winds
Speed, Direction
Waves (Windsea and swell)
Storm Surge
Height, Period, Direction
Water level, High water marks
Statistical Analyses
Error Metrics
Temporal correlation
Quantile-Quantile (distributions)
Peak event (peak over threshold)
RMS Error
Bias, Angular bias
Scatter Index
Circular correlation
Performance (Skill) Scores
April 2007 “Patriot’s Day Storm”
Interesting Science & CI Challenge (multi-plots)
Currents w/o waves
Currents w waves
April 18, 04 AM (GMT)
Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay
1. Estuary:
– 5 Hydrodynamic models (so far)
– 6 Hydro-DO model pairs (so far)
– 2004 data from up to 40 CBP stations
– Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via
target diagrams
2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models
Stratification (dS/Dz)
Std dev of
observations
Dissolved Oxygen
Std dev of
observations
Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!
Observations: S and DO from Up to 40 CBP station locations
CI Challenge (data storage and formats)
Data set for model skill assessment:
~ 40 EPA Chesapeake Bay stations
Each sampled ~ 20 times in 2004
Temperature, Salinity,
Dissolved Oxygen
Map of
Late July 2004
Observed
Dissolved
Oxygen
[mg/L]
(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ChesapeakeBay)
Skill Metrics: Target diagram
CI Challenge (tools)
Dimensionless version of
plot normalizes by standard
deviation of observations
(modified from M. Friedrichs)
Dissolved Oxygen: Top-to-Bottom DS and Bottom DO in Central Chesapeake Bay
Interesting Science & CI Challenge (tools & multi-plots)
ChesROMS-1term
model
- All models reproduce DO better than they reproduce stratification.
- If stratification is not controlling DO, what is?
(by M. Scully)
Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of Mexico
Compare Hydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcast comparisons of hypoxia model
(stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamic models
Evaluate two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)
Assist transition of Navy AMSEAS Gulf Forecasts and NOAA OceanNOMADS data server
Interesting Science & CI Challenge (tools & multi-plots)
HYCOM b.c.
Clim b.c.
Compare
simulated
surface
chlorophyll and
SeaWiFS
climatology
(June example).
IASFNFS b.c.
SeaWiFS
Preliminary analyses indicate no systematic differences among simulations
Clim b.c.
Corr = 0.72
Log(chl) model
IASNFS b.c.
Corr = 0.84
HYCOM b.c.
Corr = 0.71
Courtesy Katja Fennel
Where Does Hypoxic Bottom Water Come From?
Interesting Science & CI Challenge (Lagrangian tools)
1
7
Oxygen (mg/l)
Courtesy Bruce Lipphardt, U. Delaware
Model Evaluations – AMSEAS-GOM – Forecast Days 1 – JUNE 2010
CI Challenge (tools & multi-plots)
Sonic Layer Depth (SLD)
with Temperature and
Salinity
at Surface & 100m
Courtesy Frank Bub, NAVOCEANO
NGI & NCDDC EDAC/ OceanNOMADS
Improve Access to Gulf Data & Predictions
FY11 NODC OceanNOMADS Transition Milestone & CI Challenge (distributed data)
NCEP OPC for Near-Term
Ocean Prediction Access
EDAC for Long-Term
Archive & NCEP Backup
Surface Currents
http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php
U.S.
Super-Regional Testbed Goals
1. Build a common infrastructure for access, analysis and
visualization of all ocean model data produced by the
Federal Backbone and the IOOS Regions.
2. Develop skill metrics and assess models in three
different regions and dynamical regimes
3. Transition models, tools, toolkits and other capabilities
to federal operational facilities
4. Build stronger relationships between academia and
operational centers through collaboration
http://testbed.sura.org/node/429