Central Statistics Office
Conference
2009
“Shipping, the invisible hand moving the Irish
economy around the globe”
Irish Maritime
11th Development
November 2009Office, Ireland
Glenn Murphy,
Director
Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO)
Overview
• Key shipping indicators
• IMDO data analysis.
• Global shipping markets
• Shipping + Port traffic performance
– Lift on/Lift off market (Lo/Lo)
– Roll on/Roll off market (ro/ro)
– Bulk sector
• Trend data.
Analysis
Primary Sources
All Ports on Island
Shipping Lines
Analysis
Department Of Transport
Published data
Shipping Sector
General Public
New Services
academics
•
•
•
•
Annual Irish Transport Economist (Volume 6 – April 2009)
12 Shipping Reviews – Ireland to European Markets (2008)
Quarterly publication of traffic data.
Route and Competition Analysis
Samskip
DFDS
Lys-Line
APL
CMA CGM
Mac Andrews
Coastal Container Line
Xpress Container Line
C2C
BG Freightline
Grace Chruch/Borchard
Lines
MSC
Eucon/Eurofeeder
no. of TEU's/wk
Container Capacity in Market
LoLo capacity per operator
40,000.0
35,000.0
30,000.0
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
H12008
H12009
Container Operators
Container Capacity in the
Irish Market
• 23% reduction in available capacity
compared to same period 2008
GLOBAL SHIPPING MARKET
TOP TRADING
PARTNERS
Ireland's Top 10 Trading Partners 1st
Half 2009
2%
3%
4%
USA
4%
Belgium
22%
3%
France
Germany
6%
Spain
5%
12%
19%
Source CSO
UK
Italy
Switzerland
Netherlands
China
1785
depression
1970
depression
1930
depression
1902-10 depression
1957-63
depression
1999
recession
1980
recession
The Supply Cycle
Shipyards expand to replace the ships built in the 1970s boom Deliveries
242 m dwt
Million Dwt
in 2008
Deliveries 61
30Year Cycle
m dwt in 1976
140
120
Scrapping
Deliveries
100
80
60
40
Last phase
of 1970s
scrapping!
07
20
03
20
99
19
95
19
91
19
87
19
83
19
79
19
75
19
71
19
67
19
19
63
20
0
Baltic Dry Index 2008 - 2009
12,000
11,770
10,000
Points
8,000
6,000
3,757
2,415
4,000
670
2,000
0
Irish Container Market
Total Units (Roro & Lolo) vs. GDP
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Ttl Units
GDP
Irish Container Market
LOLO volume
Quarterly % Change lolo Laden Traffic ROI & NI
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
ROI
NI
MONTHLY LOLO TREND
Monthly Total LoLo Traffic
160,000
134,149TEU’s
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
80,141TEU’s
40,000
20,000
2007
2008
2009
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
0
Laden Imports v Laden Exports
0%
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
-5%
-10%
-15%
Imports
Exports
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
Container Market
RORO Volume
ROI & NI RORO TRAFFIC
Quarterly Change RoRo Traffic
15%
224,649
10%
217,743
% change
5%
0%
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
ROI
NI
-5%
-10%
-15%
186,793
-20%
178,875
-21%
RORO TRAFFIC
Cross Channel Freight Traffic
180,000
157,941
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
115,051
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2007
2008
2009
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
-
BULK MARKET
Dry/Liquid/Break
Dry Bulk
Monthly Dry Bulk traffic
1,649,876
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
583,667
200,000
2007
2008
2009
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
-
JAN
Tonnes
1,200,000
DRY BULK
2007
2008
2009
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
tonnes
Break Bulk
Monthly Break Bulk Traffic
250,000
204,017
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
54,133
-
Break-bulk Traffic by Commodity
120%
Youghal
100%
Wicklow
Waterford
% Share
80%
Sligo
Shannon
New Ross
60%
Killybegs
Greenore
40%
Galway
Dundalk
Dublin
20%
Drogheda
Cork
0%
Forest Products
Source CSO
Iron & Steel Products
Other General Cargo /
Break Bulk
BREAK BULK
Liquid Bulk
Monthly Liquid Bulk Traffic
1,600,000
1,365,101
1,400,000
1,200,000
800,000
600,000
708,764
400,000
200,000
2007
2008
2009
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
-
JAN
Tonnes
1,000,000
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
0
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
140
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Avg $ Price per month
OIL PRICES
OPEC Monthly basket Prices
$131.69
120
100
$72.53
80
60
40
20
$38.60
Summary
• Shipping highly cyclical
• Rate of decline easing in all market
segments.
• Economy appears to be moving out of
recession
• Very large volume correction
• Threat of inflation from higher oil prices
over winter months.
• Competitive, frequent shipping services
have an important role to play in economic
recovery.