PHASTAR
The Future for the Western Statistics and
Programming Communities in
the
Face of Globalisation
Kevin Kane
Overview
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The Global Economy
Pharmaceutical Companies
East vs West
Stats & Programming
The Future
Global Economy
• The events of 2007
– “Great Repression”
• Economic historian Niall Ferguson
– “Great Contraction”
• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff
– “Great Crash”
• University of Berkeley’s Robert Reich
Capitalism
The whole intellectual edifice of financial economics collapsed
Alan Greenspan
Large swaths of economics are going to have to be rethought
Larry Summers
The notion that unfettered markets, all by themselves, can ensure
economic prosperity are growth… is over
Joseph Stiglitz
Basic Ideas
• Old Capitalism focus is profit
• Ignores impact of people, communities,
society and the environment
• Thin value
• Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does
not allow people, communities, society and
the natural world to come to economic harm
Pharmaceutical Companies
Demand for New Medicines
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Heart attacks
Cancer survival
Anti-infectives
New medical conditions
Respiratory illnesses
Ageing populations
Costs of Drug Development
Solutions?
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Sufficient resources at early stages
Network of R&D resources
Biomarkers & Personalised Medicine?
Adaptive Designs?
More innovation, less “me-too”
Cheaper R&D costs
Other Pressures
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Cost-constrained healthcare systems
More demanding regulatory systems
More informed and active patients
$209BN of drug sales at risk from patent
expiries
• Some are predicting the extinction of the
industry
East vs West
• Interesting survey looking at growth in
Europe, US and Asia
• Scores based on management practices:– Monitoring
– Target Setting
– Incentives
Management Practice Scores
Management practice vs GDP
US/UK/India/China
The Future
• Big Questions
• Asia: Price, Quality
• West: Price, Demand
Prices/Wages
Price: Predicting the Future
East
Years
Prices/Wages
Price: Predicting the Future
West
East
Years
Reality
This is certain…
…work that can be done cheaper in Asia will
move to Asia
– e.g. straightforward reporting
What can the West do?
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Comparison with Constructive Capitalism
Stats/programming are an R&D cost
Adding more value
Work with our global partners
Technological advances
Adding more value..
• Stats/programming as part of a drug
development company
• Consider the whole cost (not thin value)
• Involvement in work to improve the
probability of drugs getting on the market
• Better study design
• Reduce trial cycle time
Technological Advances
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Labour intensive process
My 21 year view of technology advances
Standardisation & Efficiency
What I think we need
Prices/Wages
Price: Predicting the Future
West (routine)
East
Years
Prices/Wages
Price: Predicting the Future
West (innovative)
West (routine)
East
Years
In Summary…
The West must compete in the global economy through
specialisation and by adding value to everything we do.
Developed nations can maintain their share of world markets by
making more sophisticated products and incorporating
technological prowess at every stage. They must compete on
quality rather than price.
Peter Mandelson, 2011