Strategic Research: Give
Your Enrollment Vision a
Reality Check
Ruth K. Sims, Senior Vice President
October 2007
Copyright 2008
The future is embedded in the present.
- John Naisbitt
The best way to predict the future is to
create it.
- Peter Drucker
Planning is planning for change. There is no
need to plan to remain the same or to evolve
slowly.
− John Bean, The Strategic Management of College Enrollments
Higher
education
mega-trends:
Can you see
what’s coming?
Keep “disruptive innovation” in mind
An innovation that eventually overturns the existing
dominant marketplace model or status quo
Characteristics of disruptive innovation
• The new entrant often is at first inferior in quality
• The new entrant is willing to serve markets that
the incumbent finds inconvenient or unprofitable
• The incumbent continues to focus on its existing
market and model, believing that the disruptor is
not real threat
• Once the disruptor has gained a foothold, it
improves its quality and begins to gain market
share
And then there is a “tipping point”…
What is a vulnerable market?
• Marked by the absence of significant growth or
innovation
• The primary product is moving toward becoming
a commodity
• Leading organizations are focused on moving
“up market” in their own world
• Leaders have a high investment in the current
model of delivery
• To use the product or service, customers must
go to an inconvenient, centralized location
What or who are the potential disruptive
innovations in higher education?
Characteristics of strategic research
• Systematic and
planful, not random
• 360-degree: internal
and external
• Ongoing, not a
one-time event
• Uses both primary
and secondary
methodologies
The value of
research:
debate is
replaced by
action
Why make the investment?
• Debunks institutional myths
• Puts individual experiences in perspective
• Gives decision-makers credibility
• Establishes benchmarks for future
comparisons
Research isn’t a crystal ball
• You will never have enough information
• The information you have will never be
entirely complete or accurate
• You will never guess all
the implications or
outcomes of a
decision
Create your SEP research plan
COMPETITION
PRODUCT
MARKET
Methodologies have unique strengths
• Data collection and
review
• Paper/mail surveys
• E-mail/online
• Telephone
• Focus groups
• In-depth interviews
Q: How do we
need to change
ourselves to
meet our
strategic goals?
Research focus #1: The institution
• Student satisfaction and engagement
metrics
• Faculty/staff satisfaction and alignment
with student expectations
• Alumni satisfaction/outcomes
• Student attrition research
Current student research reveals
broad institutional issues…
Overall Satisfaction
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Overall, met
expectations?
Rate overall
satisfaction
Our students
Would enroll
here again
Tuition a
worthwhile
investment
Students at other schools
…and suggests specific applications
Strategy 1: Assign undecided majors to counseling
and advising and require advising/career
counseling; require major declaration by end of
30 completed credit hours.
Strategy 2: Develop an advisor assignment
approach for all students.
Strategy 3: Provide training for all faculty and staff
who provide advising or other support services
and/or interact with students during the
enrollment process.
Research can address PR issues
with boards, legislatures
= Degree
Completion?
Only 60% of students
reported that their primary
goal upon entering college
was to earn a degree.
= Meeting My
Goals
Of non-returning students,
89% said they had
achieved their goals or
made satisfactory progress
toward them.
Alumni research can inform your
institutional strategy
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percent of Alumni
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Other graduate degree
Student attrition research yields useful data
“Do you plan to go back to (institution)?”
Yes58%
Don’t know 11%
No
31%
Faculty and staff attitudes
shape institutional culture
“As a result of the findings, we have involved
faculty and staff much more fully in the planning
process, and have made improvements in
wages and benefits and in our promotion
process.”
- Jackie Virgint, Director of Institutional Research
Santa Fe Community College (New Mexico)
Research challenges what we “know”
Institutional Priorities Survey
Student
Item
rank
Security staff response
40
Adjunct faculty are competent as instructors 27
Student disciplinary procedures are fair
44
Channels for expressing complaints
58
Ranking of items 1-85; 1 = most satisfied
F/S/A
rank
6
10
8
20
Q: How will the
market’s
characteristics
impact our
future?
Research focus #2: The market
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demographic trends
Projected demand for academic programs
Price sensitivity
Lost inquiries and applicants
Brand/image research
Delivery format preferences
Demographics tell a story
www.wiche.edu
Create a comparative financial profile
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< $25K
$25K - < $50K $50K - < $75K $75K - $100K
Your University
www.wiche.edu
National
$100K +
Market share and enrollment potential
IPEDS, U.S. Census Bureau
Actual Enrollments Compared to Predicted Enrollments
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
c
ur
O
om
m
it y
un
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co
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#1
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#2
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un
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#3
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#4
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#5
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#6
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#7
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Actual Enrollment
#8
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#9
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C
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o
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0
#1
ity
un
C
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o
m
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Predicted Enrollment
1
#1
ity
un
C
ge
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2
#1
ity
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3
#1
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4
#1
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5
#1
Pricing research replaces intuition
Tuition Paid by Lost Admits
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than
$2,500
$2,500 to
$4,999
$5,000 to
$7,499
$7,500 to
$9,999
$10,000 to
$12,499
% of Lost Admits
$12,500 to
$14,999
$15,000 to
$17,499
$17,500 to
$19,999
$20,000 or
more
Program demand shows opportunity
College-Bound High School Students
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Nursing
Drama
Mathematics
Crim. Justice
Primary Market
Sports Mgt.
Child Care
Social Work
Env. Studies
Secondary Market
NRCCUA Postsecondary Planning survey of college-bound high school students.
Essential attitudinal research
What level of awareness of
our institution exists in outof-state markets?
Are our marketing
messages resonating with
prospective students?
How can we use different
messages to target different
types of students?
How are we viewed in terms
of quality against our top
competitors?
Research reveals your brand strength
The best brands have:
• Clarity – they are differentiated
• Responsiveness – to customer needs
• Trust – they deliver on promises
Source: MacInnis and Park, MarketingProfs.com, February 2004
Perception research can be a wake-up call
“Name a positive perception that students have
of MyStateU…”
Percent
Don’t know, nothing
42.5
Community, area, scenery
19.2
Programs, courses (general)
9.8
Social atmosphere, environment
8.5
Campus
9.0
Reputation
5.8
Smaller classes/student-to-teacher ratio 3.8
.
Research drives .marketing
strategy
70%
60%
50%
40%
News
Entertainment
30%
20%
10%
0%
Television
Internet
Newspaper
Radio
Magazines
Research reveals knowledge of cost
“What is your best estimate for the cost of tuition for
one year at one of (state’s) four-year universities?”
–
–
–
–
–
–
Less than $2,000
$2,000 - < $3,000
$3,000 - < $4,000
$4,000 - < $5,000
$5,000 or more
Don’t know
( 4%)
(22%)
(21%)
( 9%)
(24%)
(20%)
More than 50% of prospective students either don’t
know or over-estimate tuition.
Non-enrolling admitted students
• Telephone surveys
comparing features
with school of choice
• In-depth interviews
that get past the
polite answers
Q: What is the
evolving
competitive
context for our
institution?
Research focus #3: The competition
• Competitor enrollment trends
• Competitor marketing messages
• Competitor academic program
offerings
• Institutional image vis-à-vis
competitors
www.nces.ed.gov/IPEDS/
What you can learn from IPEDS
• Institution
characteristics
• Degree completions
• 12-month enrollment
• Human resources
• Fall enrollment
• Finance
• Financial aid
• Graduation rates
Tuition trend comparison dispels myths
Non-resident freshman enrollment and tuition & fees
$25,000
45,000
40,000
$20,000
35,000
30,000
$15,000
25,000
20,000
$10,000
15,000
10,000
$5,000
5,000
$0
0
1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Median Non-resident Tuition & Fees
Non-resident Enrollment (Freshmen)
Understand your market share trends
Bachelor's Degrees Awarded in
Business Administration
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001-2002
Four-year publics
2005-2006
Four-year privates
For-profits
Measure the basics of your
competitive position
Top-of-mind (five-minute)
telephone awareness survey
• Have you heard of (our
institution/competitors)?
(Basic name recognition)
• Level of familiarity 1-5
(Knowledge)
• One word or phrase they
associate with the institution
(Perceptions)
Awareness of your name vs. competition
% Yes
100
80
60
40
20
0
In-state
Florida
Our school
Carter U
Alabama
Georgia
Milton Coll
Williams U
S. Carolina
Dover U
Research to determine positioning and
branding
1. Ensure that we are not simply duplicating
the positioning of other institutions
2. Help correct misperceptions that exist in
the marketplace
3. Determine which brand messages should
be primary
4. Define specific messages needed by
specific audiences
Research ensures that we use the
right marketing messages
Quality is…
• Faculty who publish
• The smartest students
• US News ratings
Quality is…
• Faculty teaching
• Career preparation
• Successful graduates
Competitor message content analysis
Unique academic program analysis
Knowledge comes by taking
things apart;
wisdom comes by putting
things together.
−John Morrison
Create your research checklist