Untangling Wicked Problems:
Maintaining Hope When
Dealing with
Student Retention
Rosemary Hayes, Ph.D.
Director, CSRDE
The University of Oklahoma
rhayes@ou.edu
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
1
78
.3
%
79
.3
%
79
.2
%
79
.1
%
79
.9
%
80
.0
%
80
.4
%
80
.7
%
80
.7
%
80
.4
%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
50
%
60
%
70
%
80
%
90
%
10
0%
Continuation Rates to the Second Year
Cohort Year
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
2
Graduation Rates of First-Time Freshman
100.0%
90.0%
.1
%
58
.4
%
57
.5
%
56
.4
%
56
60.0%
55
70.0%
.1
%
80.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Cohort Year
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
3
Explain Yourself
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
4
Interventions









Freshman Orientation
First year Experience
Skill assessment and
Placement
Financial Aid
Academic Advising
Learning Communities
Tighter Admission
Criteria
Summer Bridge
Peer Mentoring







Research
Opportunities
Leadership
Community
Involvement
Student Engagement
Focus
Performance
Budgeting
Political Pressure
Accountability
reporting
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
5
No Solution?
No!
However, we do need to
rethink our strategy
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
6
Is there help?
Yes!
We can draw from research in
engineering, urban planning,
systems design, and psychology
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
7
Is there hope?
Absolutely!
We have the power to choose how
we are going to respond.
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
8
Categories of Mess
Kurtz, CF and Snowden, DJ (IBM Systems Journal 43, 3 Mar 2003)
Category
Qualities
I
Solution knowledge exists
in your domain
II
Solution knowledge in
another domain
III
No solution exists.
Complex, but responds
consistently to same
stimuli
IV (Wicked)
No solution exist. Chaotic
and adaptive
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
9
Characteristics
Wicked Problems
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
10
Characteristics
Wicked Problems
The Problem is difficult to define.
 Multi-causal. May itself contain problems.
 No rules or markers for where to stop.
 Each wicked problem is essentially unique.
 Attempts to address may open cause
unforeseen consequences.
 No opportunity for trial and error learning
with immunity.
 The planner is held accountable.

Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
11
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
12
Characteristics
Wicked Problems
The Problem is difficult to define.
 Multi-causal. May itself contain problems.
 No rules or markers for where to stop.
 Each wicked problem is essentially unique.
 Attempts to address may open cause
unforeseen consequences.
 No opportunity for trial and error learning
with immunity.
 The planner is held accountable.

Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
13
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
14
Characteristics
Wicked Problems
The Problem is difficult to define.
 Multi-causal. May it self contain problems.
 No rules or markers for where to stop.
 Each wicked problem is essentially unique.
 Attempts to address may open cause
unforeseen consequences.
 No opportunity for trial and error learning
with immunity.
 The planner is held accountable.

Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
15
Characteristics
Wicked Problems
Summary
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
16
Typical Approaches to
Tame Problems:
Linear
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
17
Waterfall Lifecycle
Problem
Gather
Info
Analyze
data
Formulate
solution
Implement
Solution
Time
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
18
Rapid Prototype Lifecycle
with Wicked Problem
Problem
Gather
Info
Analyze
data
Formulate
solution
Implement
Solution
Time
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
19
Interventions










Freshman Orientation
First year Experience
Skill assessment and
Placement
Financial Aid
Academic Advising
Learning Communities
Tighter Admission
Criteria
Financial Aid
Summer Bridge
Peer Mentoring







Research
Opportunities
Leadership
Community
Involvement
Student Engagement
Focus
Performance
Budgeting
Political Pressure
Accountability
reporting
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
20
Spiral Lifecycle
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
21
Higher-Order Strategies
 Declare-
the mess and your intent
 Learn- Become a scholar
 Question the paradigms
 Think Together- Collaborate
 Lead
(Denning, 2007)
 Disguise
 Manage Expectations
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
22
Personal Strategies
The role of
hardiness and resilience
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
23
Vital Attitudes
CommitmentControl-try
influence
stay engaged
to positively
Challenge
–See change as an
opportunity to learn
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
24
Vital Skills
 Transformational
coping-
–Place change and stress in a
broader context.
–Not personal
 Social
Support –strengthen
relationship, minimize isolation
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
25
Personal Strategies
Three Cs + Skills
Support courage and
motivation
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
26
Conclusion
There is no silver bullet
 It is a process rather than a solution
 We are building critical mass for the
next breakthrough
 Both success and failures bring us
closer to understanding the problem
 Just because we won’t see the tree
it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t plant
the sapling.

Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
27
References






Conklin, J. (2006). Dialogue Mapping: Building Shared
Understanding of Wicked Problems. Wiley.
Denning, P.J. (2007) Mastering the mess.
Communications of the ACM, 50, 4. 21-25.
Kuhn, T. (1962). Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago
Press.
Kurtz, C.F. and Snowden, D.J. (2003). The new dynamics of
strategy: Sense making in a complex and complicated
world. IBM Systems Journal, 43, 3, 462-483
Maddi, S. and Khoshaba, D. (2005). Resilience at Work.
MJF Books, New York
Rittel, H. and Webber, M. (1973). Dilemmas in a General
Theory of Planning. Policy Sciences. 4, 155-159. Elsevier
Scientific Publishing: Amsterdam.
Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu)
28