The State of Enrollment Management in Oklahoma: Trends and Considerations Kevin Crockett President and CEO February 28, 2008 I would like to accomplish three things in this session 1 2 3 Let’s quickly review the high-level enrollment trends in the state of Oklahoma Oklahoma’s public colleges and universities have grown 12 percent (headcount) over the last decade 238,245 234,873 236,730 228,249 220,768 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 209,559 2000-01 1998-99 209,371 213,972 1999-00 211,876 1997-98 210,823 1996-97 250,000 245,000 240,000 235,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 Source: OSRHE June 2007 The community colleges and research universities have fueled that growth Research Regional Community 110,000 100,000 103,201 103,209 102,014 70,859 70,763 98,547 90,000 95,025 53,122 53,603 1997-98 60,000 1996-97 70,000 55,432 65,883 66,813 66,996 55627 56,701 58,747 68,875 68,953 60,827 62,719 64,357 62,963 2005-06 67,181 2004-05 69,088 90,458 2003-04 67,275 80,000 88,049 2001-02 89,263 2000-01 88,493 1999-00 88,613 2002-03 1998-99 50,000 Source: OSRHE June 2007 First-time freshman enrollment has grown 9 percent… Total Regional 40,552 37,024 Research 39,989 40,243 22,436 22,877 37,077 19,412 10,187 10,436 10,212 10,543 10,526 7,110 7,229 7,408 7,010 6,840 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 19,727 2002-03 22,932 2001-02 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Community Source: OSRHE June 2007 …despite declining demographics OKLAHOMA Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates 1987-88 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1987-88 2002-03 2017-18 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Knocking at the College Door December 2003 First-to-second year retention in Oklahoma remains relatively flat… Research Regional Community 100.0% 90.0% 80.5% 81.8% 65.1% 64.0% 64.2% 64.5% 64.9% 64.3% 64.3% 56.1% 80.0% 75.3% 75.3% 75.4% 70.0% 62.1% 62.1% 62.7% 62.0% 52.6% 54.4% 53.1% 54.9% 53.5% 54.4% 2001-02 81.1% 2000-01 80.5% 1999-00 79.2% 1998-99 79.4% 1997-98 79.4% 1996-97 78.3% 60.0% 49.1% 49.1% 1995-96 40.0% 1995-96 50.0% 53.0% 55.3% 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 30.0% Source: OSRHE April 2006 …But three and six year graduation rates are improving Research Regional Community 80.0% 34.2% 18.3% 19.8% 2005-06 29.7% 29.3% 31.3% 30.3% 31.8% 31.7% 17.6% 18.0% 19.6% 18.5% 19.4% 20.7% 2002-03 30.0% 27.8% 33.0% 51.6% 2001-02 40.0% 49.7% 2000-01 44.8% 57.6% 1999-00 50.0% 48.0% 56.8% 1998-99 60.0% 55.8% 59.0% 54.6% 2004-05 70.0% 47.6% 25.2% 14.4% 15.0% 1997-98 10.0% 1996-97 20.0% 2003-04 0.0% Source: OSRHE June 2007 Certificates and degrees produced by public institutions in Oklahoma have increased 18 percent in five years 30,000 28,769 29,000 28,000 27,607 26,484 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 28,934 24,488 24,980 23,000 22,000 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 2000-01 21,000 20,000 Source: OSRHE Let’s take a look at findings from the Institutional Fact Finder that many of you completed in preparation for this conference We received 14 completed surveys this winter compared to 28 back in 2004…Four-year schools were slightly overrepresented compared to 2004 (64% versus 54%) 4-Year 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2-Year 15 13 9 5 2004 2008 Part I: Organizing for Enrollment Management An increasing percentage of campuses report that there is an individual who has overall direct responsibility for enrollment management Yes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No 93% 69% 31% 7% 2004 2008 The role of the enrollment manager in Oklahoma continues to focus more on marketing and recruitment than retention…that said, the percentage of schools reporting retention in this person’s duties increased from 45% to 64% UG admissions and recruiting 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Retention programs 100% 86% 64% 45% 2004 2008 Integrated and strategic enrollment planning has increased, retention planning has declined Survey Item 2004 2008 We develop an annual written enrollment management plan that addresses both recruitment and retention 38% 54% We develop an annual marketing/recruitment plan 86% 85% We develop an annual retention plan 43% 31% We develop a three-to-five year strategic enrollment plan 48% 69% Why do you think less than a third of Oklahoma’s public colleges and universities develop a written retention plan? According to our 2007 retention practices report, 53% of 4-year public schools develop a written retention plan, 40% of two-year public schools develop such a plan Part II: Enrollment Management Goals and Results Enrollment funnel data reported in the survey was very sketchy, as it was in 2004 In fact, only 10 survey respondents provided funnel data on freshmen, 8 provided funnel data on transfers, and 3 provided funnel data on parttime students Inquiry data remains very elusive in the survey % reporting FTIC inquiry data % reporting transfer inquiry data 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 36.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 7.2% 10.0% 7.2% 0.0% 2004 2008 This may partially reflect the ongoing dissatisfaction with management information systems Satisfied with system's ability to generate timely and accurate reports Satisified with system's ability to manage the communication process with prospective students 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 43.0% 39.0% 39.0% 2004 38.0% 2008 Marketing and recruitment efforts in the state remain focused on the high school population % reporting an enrollment goal 80.0% 71.0% 70.0% 62.0% 60.0% 54.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 7.0% 10.0% 0.0% Freshman Transfer Part-Time Adults These percentages are very similar to the 2004 survey Nationally…enrollment funnel dynamics are changing Source: Noel-Levitz 2006 Admissions Funnel Report Online applicants complete their files and yield at lower rates than students who submit paper applications Source: Noel-Levitz 2006 Admissions Funnel Report Not surprisingly, out-of-state students are less likely to complete their applications and actually enroll Source: Noel-Levitz 2006 Admissions Funnel Report Gaps also persist in retention goalsetting in Oklahoma % reporting no FTIC retention goal % reporting no graduation rate goal 80.0% 67.0% 70.0% 60.0% 56.0% 50.0% 50.0% 46.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2004 Survey 2008 Survey “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there” Lewis Carroll Part III: Marketing and Recruitment Practices Marketing and recruitment practices deemed “very effective” in the 2008 survey by at least 36% of respondents Practice % rating very effective Individualized personalized e-mail exchanges 64% High school visits by admissions representative 50% Offering no-need merit scholarships 50% Campus visit days designed for school counselors 43% Campus visit days for high school students 43% Using enrolled students in recruiting 43% College day/night programs 36% Recruitment publications 36% Hosting open house events 36% Some interesting items with a substantial number of “method not used” responses in the 2008 survey Practice % reporting method not used Predictive modeling 86% Internet ads 71% Contacting inquiries to code their level of interest 64% Weekend visits for high school students 64% Student searches via electronic lists 57% College sponsored trips to campus 50% Electronic newsletters 50% Student searches via direct mail 36% Planned mass e-mail to prospective students 36% E-mail communication flow 36% Which of these items are the highest priority additions for your campus? Practice Predictive modeling Internet ads Contacting inquiries to code their level of interest Weekend visits for high school students Student searches via electronic lists College sponsored trips to campus Electronic newsletters Student searches via direct mail Planned mass e-mail to prospective students E-mail communication flow % rating very effective The use of telecounseling is improving % reporting no telecounseling by professional staff % reporting no telecounseling by paid student workers 80.0% 69.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 48.0% 40.0% 30.0% 21.0% 21.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2004 Survey 2008 Survey Have you converted your telecounseling team into a student contact team to capitalize on multiple communication channels such as instant messaging and e-mail? How well are Oklahoma institutions responding to emerging communication channels? The alignment between the Web resources desired by students and the survey results show significant opportunities Web Resource Juniors/ Seniors Oklahoma sites that include this Financial aid/scholarship estimators 88% / 80% 21% / 7% Tuition calculator 83% / 76% 14% Campus visit request/event RSVP 81% / 65% 43% IM/Live Chat 72% / 55% 0% Faculty blog 64% / 43% 0% Current student blogs 63% / 46% 0% Personalize a Web site 62% / 45% 0% Sources: NL E-Expectations Survey and OK Fact Finder According to the most recent Noel-Levitz EExpectations Study… • 79% of students own a cell phone – 59% would take a call from a college • 85% can text – 44% would accept text messages from a college • 62% use IM – 61% would use IM/Live Chat tools on a college site – 72% would respond to conversations a college initiates via IM NL E-Expectations Survey OK schools reported mixed practices in collecting data to communicate with families via cell, e-mail and text messaging Data to be collected On-line inquiry form Inquiry cards (printed) Phone/inperson Student e-mail address 86% 100% 86% Student cell phone information 57% 79% 64% Permission to send text messages 0% 0% 0% Parent e-mail address 14% 14% 14% Parent cell phone information 14% 14% 14% You also reported mixed capabilities in social networking and high-end Web content Resource Our site includes this Institution-sponsored pages on social networking sites, such as My Space or Facebook 50% Profiles of admissions counselors on My Space or Facebook 36% Podcasts or videocasts that can be used on your site or through download to another device 14% RSS feeds of news stories and deadline reminders 7% Social networking capabilities within your own site 7% A version of your site that is designed for viewing on a mobile phone 7% Opt-in for text message notifications 7% A separate site for accepted students 0% Personalization features to allow site visitors to enter their specific interests for unique page views 0% How important is the Web versus direct mail? I would rather look at a Web site than read brochures sent to me in the mail I would rather read brochures sent me in the mail than look at a Web site 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 57.0% 43.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% NL E-Expectations Survey Read more at www.noellevitz.com Take a minute to jot down two or three changes you would like to make on your campus based on the preceding information What about admissions publications? Which of the following publications or materials does your institution use regularly to communicate with prospective students? Catalog 100% Viewbook 93% Financial aid or college financing brochure 93% Separate school, department, or program brochures 86% Recruiting poster 79% CD ROM 71% Search piece 50% Merit scholarship brochure 43% Campus visit brochure 36% Parents’ brochure 21% Admissions newsletter 14% Outcomes/successful graduates’ brochure 7% Routine enrollment research remains the exception not the rule in Oklahoma? Survey research on enrolled students who do not re-enroll (withdrawn students) Survey research on high school or community college counselors 64% 36% Survey research on prospective students who do not enroll (non-enrolling inquiries) 29% Survey research on admitted students who do not enroll (non-enrolling admits) 29% Survey research on employers Environmental scanning Survey research on parents of prospective students Competition studies 29% 14% 7% 7% Research can help you understand where product, demand, and competition intersect MARKET DEMAND: What students want COMPETITION: Unoccupied market positions PRODUCT: What can your institution do best? Part IV: Retention Practices The top nine retention, progression and completion strategies in Oklahoma Testing and placement into courses designed to assist with student success 100% Academic support services for academically under-prepared students 93% Training for academic advisors 79% A systematic early alert and intervention program 79% An orientation program that is designed to connect students to each other, faculty and staff at the institution, and resources to support student success 79% An honors program 79% Exit procedures for students who drop out or stop out 71% A program for assessing student satisfaction 64% A proactive support program for students on academic probation 64% The bottom nine strategies in Oklahoma Data analysis to predict dropout proneness 29% Supplemental Instruction (SI) 29% Ongoing quality service training for front-line staff 36% Special programs for under-represented populations 36% Ongoing faculty development opportunities for faculty that are related to their role in retention 43% A communication program with students who have recently dropped out or stopped out 43% A proactive intervention program for undecided students 50% Collaborative learning strategies (e.g., learning communities) 50% A first-year program or transition-to-college course 57% How motivated and prepared are students for college? Students arrive motivated to finish college… …but many lack the requisite skills Math, science and writing are problems for about half the students The good news is…they are receptive to assistance Part V: Financial aid practices Modest improvements have occurred in the strategic use of financial aid Survey Item 2004 % Yes 2008 %Yes In preparing financial aid awards we routinely meet different percentage of need for different types of students who have similar need levels 18% 29% We are leveraging our financial aid resources to achieve enrollment goals 44% 50% We track yield rates on our financial aid awards, including scholarships 25% 43% Financial aid process issues have also improved except for the timing of upper-class aid awards Survey Item 2004 % Yes 2008 % Yes Require institutional aid application 61% 50% Release upper-class aid awards prior to end of current year 46% 36%* Offer an early aid estimating service 26% 36% *56% of 4 year universities (n=9) responded yes to upper-class awards Some thoughts on the future of enrollment management Demographics will represent a powerful force We are experiencing unprecedented changes in students • Today’s juniors are projected to be the largest high school graduating class (2009) in U.S. history • Between 1995 and 2015, 20 percent more students are projected to enroll in college, reaching 16 million (assuming today’s college participation rate of 66 percent) • Students of color will represent 80 percent of the increase in college-aged students between 1995 and 2015, and nearly 50 percent of the growth will be among Hispanic students • Among minority students, 45 percent will come from families with the lowest EFC (Pell-eligible) Projected change in the number of high school graduates, 2006-07 to 2016-17 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education © Copyright 2006, The Chronicle of Higher Education Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted, published, or distributed without permission from The Chronicle. OKLAHOMA White non-Latino Public High School Graduates 1999-00 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 99-00 01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Knocking at the College Door December 2003 OKLAHOMA American Indian/Alaskan Native High School Graduates 1999-00 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 99-00 01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Knocking at the College Door December 2003 OKLAHOMA Latino Public High School Graduates 1999-00 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 99-00 01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Knocking at the College Door December 2003 OKLAHOMA African-American High School Graduates 1999-00 through 2001-02 (actual) 2002-03 through 2017-18 (projected) 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 99-00 01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Knocking at the College Door December 2003 Affordability issues will require states and schools to constantly monitor access patterns and the extent to which net price is influencing student enrollment behavior Growth in tuition/fees is rapidly outpacing family income in the United States (inflation-adjusted) 60% 52% 47% 45% 37% 34% 30% 15% 3% 0% 4-Yr Private Tuition 4-Year Public Tuition -15% 1986-87 to 1996-97 -1% Median Family Income (Age 45-54) 1996-97 to 2006-07 The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2007 Average tuition and fee charges in constant dollars, 1997-1998 to 2007-2008 (enrollment weighted) $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $5,231 $5,624 $5,814 $6,185 $5,918 $4,715 $4,022 $4,131 $4,183 $4,221 $4,411 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $2,026 $1,977 $2,052 $1,976 $1,883 $1,926 $2,150 $2,281 $2,310 $2,310 $2,361 $1,000 $0 1997-98 2002-03 Public 4-yr. 2007-08 Public 2-yr. The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2007 Public institutions can easily be lulled into a false sense of security regarding student ability to pay Tuition and Fees Room & Board $30,000 $15,000 $10,000 Books/Supplies Transportation $26,304 $25,000 $20,000 Other Charges $1,739 $16,357 $6,960 $1,739 $6,960 $15,783 $5,000 $5,836 $0 In-State Out-of-State Source: The College Board Trends in College Pricing 2006 Cumulative federal loans borrowed by BA/AA degree recipients 1992-93 to 2003-04 (current dollars) 2-Year Public 4-Year Public 4-Year Private $17,500 $16,942 $15,500 $17,125 $14,671 $14,250 $13,500 $14,848 $11,500 $9,500 $9,680 $10,422 $7,500 $5,500 $6,300 $5,200 $3,500 $1,500 $2,625 1992-93 $5,879 $3,937 1995-96 1999-00 2003-04 Source: ACE Issue Brief: Federal Student Loan Debt: 1993-2004 Non-federal (private and state-sponsored) loans have increased 674 percent in ten years (constant dollars) In Millions $20,000 $18,000 $18,490 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $6,381 $4,000 $2,000 $2,390 $0 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07 Source: The College Board Trends in Student Aid 2007 Measuring net price response of selected need-based students by examining the percentage of need met Need Met Enrollment Rate Number of Cases <75.6% 25.9% 540 Cases 75.6%-87.0% 48.2% 830 Cases >87.0% 49.2% 650 Cases TOTAL 42.6% 2,020 Cases Measuring net price response of selected need-based students by examining the percent of need met with gift aid Need Met w/ Gift Aid Enrollment Rate Number Of Cases <53.16% 24.4% 780 Cases 53.16%-61.7% 47.9% 730 Cases >61.7% 62.7% 510 Cases TOTAL 42.6% 2,020 Cases The ability to pay of prospective students plays a significant role in who will earn a BA Family Income $35,000 or less 1 in 17 will earn a BA degree by age 24 (Approximately 6.0%) $36,000 - $60,000 1 in 10 will earn a BA degree by age 24 (Approximately 12.7%) $61,245 - $85,000 1 in 4 will earn a BA degree by age 24 (Approximately 26%) $85,000 or more 1 in 2 will earn a BA degree by age 24 (Approximately 51.3%) Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity Analysis, Based on 2002 Census Data Factoid – USA Today – Feb. 2, 2006 The enrollment funnel and communication strategies are changing rapidly which will require institutions to market to students differently The distinction between stages is becoming blurred because of the Internet and the savvy of this generation of students The changing dynamics of student enrollment behavior and a myriad of new communication vehicles will require enrollment managers to prospect in new ways and focus increasingly on permission marketing strategies Institutions are placing increased emphasis on product mix and developing distinctive market niches…enrollment managers will need to become increasingly fluent on issues of student demand Enrollment managers will play an increased role in devising institutional growth strategies Existing New Programs/Services Programs/Services Existing Markets Market Penetration Program Development New Markets Market Development Diversification An overview of top 10 student-planned educational majors: 1997-2006 200,000 180,000 160,000 Health Science/Allied Health Undecided 140,000 Business/Mgmt Education 120,000 Social Sciences Visual and Perf Arts 100,000 Sciences (Bio and Physical) Engineering 80,000 Communications Community and personal ser. 60,000 40,000 20,000 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 Source: American College Testing Program An overview of bottom 13 student-planned educational majors: 1997-2006 50,000 45,000 Computer/Info Science 40,000 Engineering Tech Architecture/Env Design 35,000 Agricuture Trade/Industrial 30,000 Human/Family/Cons. Science 25,000 Marketing & Distribution Phil/Religion/Theology 20,000 Letters Business and Office 15,000 Foregin Languages Mathematics 10,000 Cross-Disciplinary Studies 5,000 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 Source: American College Testing Program Occupations with the largest job growth requiring a BA degree: 2004-2014 Occupation Number % Change Registered nurse* 703,000 29.4% Post-secondary teachers 524,000 32.2% General and operations managers 308,000 17.0% Elementary/secondary teachers 265,000 18.2% Accountants and auditors 264,000 22.4% Computer software engineers applications 222,000 48.4% Computer systems analysts 153,000 31.4% * Most significant source of post-secondary education or training is the AA Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2004-2014 Employment Projections Occupations with the fastest job growth (percentage change) requiring a BA degree: 2004-2014 Occupation Number % Change Network systems/data communications 126,000 54.6% Physician’s assistants 31,000 49.6% Computer software engineers, applications 222,000 48.4% Computer software engineers, systems software 107,000 38.4% Physical therapists 57,000 36.7% Medical scientists, except epidemiologists 25,000 34.1% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2004-2014 Employment Projections Occupations with the fastest job growth (percentage change) requiring a BA degree: 2004-2014 Occupation Number % Change Occupational therapists 31,000 33.6% Post-secondary teachers 524,000 32.2% 3,000 31.6% 153,000 31.4% Biomedical engineers 3,000 30.7% Employment, recruitment, placement specialists 55,000 30.5% Environmental engineers 15,000 30.0% Hydrologists Computer systems analysts Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2004-2014 Employment Projections Athletic interests of 2008 high school graduates Count 246,405 172,967 168,010 159,546 151,382 150,562 129,052 114,963 106,762 100,532 100,485 57,479 53,567 47,743 46,056 29,373 27,857 24,875 12,335 12,138 1,912,089 Description Basketball Football Other Athletics Cheerleading/Dance Team Volleyball Soccer Track and Field Baseball Swimming/Diving Softball Tennis Golf Gymnastics Cross Country Wrestling Lacrosse Ice Hockey Equestrian Field Hockey Crew/Rowing Total Source: National Research Center for College and University Admissions Activity interests of 2008 high school graduates Count 200,692 169,154 159,524 148,132 139,491 125,543 117,351 103,284 101,698 101,237 96,355 94,106 92,072 76,829 62,332 60,287 60,137 59,441 57,988 47,193 2,072,846 Description Art/Design Fraternity/Sorority Outdoor Adventure/Recreation Academic/Honors Club Outdoor Winter Sports Drama/Theatre Community Service Choir Newspaper/TV/Radio Church/Religious Military/R.O.T.C. Leadership Band/Orchestra Business Club/Entrepreneurship Language Club Study Abroad Debate/Forensics Math/Science Club Writing/Publications Student Government Total Source: National Research Center for College and University Admissions Increasing student completion rates will require an increased emphasis on the second and third year…and we have limited information about what works with these students Observations and Questions