Colloquium Series
Computational Transportation Science
University of Illinois at Chicago
Jerry Wilson 4/2/2009
Cellular, Broadband, and
Location Based Services
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

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• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
Industry Activity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Newsweek March 2009
Location data will give marketers and advertisers new insights into consumers
Sense Networks can craft customer profiles based on where people actually go and what they actually do
Cell phones have become the nuerons in an emerging- and truly global- nervous system
MIT Media Lab
People are going to be online on cell phones, making
location an essential new data point for Google to consider
Forester Research
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

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• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
IndustryActivity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

st
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

1980
Wide Area Mobile coverage
1983
National Footprint
1986
Competition, A B Operators
1988
Truly Portable Devices
1994
Standards-based Roaming
2000
Alternative to Wire Line
2003
Moving beyond voice
2006
Search for Killer App
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Wireless To Drive Broadband Growth
Wireless broadband will overtake fixed as the dominant BB platform in 2011
Total broadband subscribers worldwide, 2007-12
1,800
1,400
1,000
600
200
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Wireless
Wired
Source: Future Mobile Broadband report, Informa Telecoms, 3Q 2007
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

 Text messaging
 Ring tones
 Email
 Browse Internet
 Music
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Rich Messaging
Next… Video
Operators are margins positively impacted by data
User experience is limited by bandwidth attributes
Next G infrastructure spend climbs
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

 Smaller, Cheaper, Lighter
 Battery Life and Size
 Standards Mean Choice and Content!
 Differentiation Hazards!
 GSM = $99 phones
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Impact on WiMAX and LTE
Screen Size…Pixels and Pictures
BB Suitability…User Experience… Interface ?
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

 GSM becomes defacto Global Standard
 Ericsson and Nokia Dominate
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IP Brings new entrants…Cisco
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Vendor consolidation…
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Low Cost Asian competitors…Huaweii
 Operators struggle with margins
Similar factors impact other industries
… Public Safety, Cable Networks …
Creating a shift toward converged services and increased competion
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

•
•
•
•
•
• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
Industry Activity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

New Subscribers:
No Longer A Key Growth Driver
Worlwide Cellular Subscribers billions
6
.63
Cum EOY (B) New Adds (B)
.53
4.86
4.97
5
.51
.54
4.51
4.71
4.24
.40
3.86
4
3.32
.38
3 .30
.28
.31
2.69
.28
2
.26
2.17
.22
1.39
1.73
.20
1
.12
.31
0
.48
.73
.94
1.15
.14
.10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Innovative data services are critical to future operator revenue / profit growth
Source: Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, July 2008
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Band Migration Basics!!!
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LTE Will Be the Choice of Incumbents
WiMAX Chosen By New Entrants/Differentiators
Major Metros Deployed First
Devices Must Be Dual Mode
Devices Sales Will Follow Network
New Services Drive Customer Migration
Navigation/Location Based Services Will Be a Likely
Driver of Network Build Out
Blue Tooth and GPS Will Be Critical to LBS Take-Up
Network Migrations are Sloppy, not Linear!
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

•
•
•
•
•
• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
Industry Activity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Offered Today with Major Operators
Considering buying a PND?
With easy-to-use GPS navigation right on a mobile phone or smartphone, your team can maximize productivity on and off the road.
Say goodbye to asking for directions, printing out online maps, or calling 411
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

50Million shipped in 2008
Replaced by Cell Phone in the next 5-7 years
Looking for new revenue streams, building on GPS strength
Smart Phones Grow 50% vs 11% Overall Market
Bigger by 2013/14 than Laptops and PC’s combined
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

UPDATE
Sadly, Garmin won’t be launching their GPS-navigation savvy Garmin Nuvifone until 2009.
Specific carrier requirements, likely from AT&T have Garmin making changes to the
Nuvifone that will delay its launch until 1H 2009.
Next
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Gambling on WiMAX for Early start
Sprint has integrated a slew of content and location-based services into its upcoming
XOHM WiMax wireless broadband network.
Developer friendly, supports all sorts of devices, including laptops, mobile Internet devices, media players, cameras and car navigation.
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Services Available at Launch uLocate Communications : Access to restaurant reviews, news, events and weather
Topix: local news based on current location
Google: Local Search and Google Maps
Openwave Systems : Platform enables XOHM partners location based services
Autodesk : standards-based interface and geospatial services, such as addresses, ZIP code
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

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What is needed to use AT&T Navigator?
Approved mobile device, AT&T network coverage, a monthly subscription or day pass. Also recommend a data rate plan for route information as standard data charges apply.
 What devices is AT&T Navigator available on?
AT&T Tilt, AT&T Quickfire (CTX75), BlackBerry 8110, BlackBerry 8800, BlackBerry
8820, BlackBerry 8310, BlackBerry BOLD, HTC Fuze™, LG CF360, LG CT810
(Incite), Motorola Q9 Global, Motorola Z9, Motorola V9x, Nokia 6650, Pantech C610,
Pantech C630, Pantech Matrix™ (C740), Pantech Matrix Pro™, Samsung BlackJack
II (i617), Samsung Rugby (A837), Samsung a637, Samsung Epix (i907), Samsung
Propel (A767), Samsung A777, Samsung Eternity (a867), Sony Ericsson w760a
 How much does AT&T Navigator cost?
$9.99/month for unlimited access
 How can the best possible GPS signal be attained?
GPS signals need unobstructed view of the sky, do not work indoors; buildings, terrain, heavy foliage, and materials such as metal, concrete, and stone will block
GPS signals. Be patient, it may take 2-3 minutes to acquire the first GPS signal of the day.
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Remember Device 101?
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Google Maps couldn’t take advantage of the built-in GPS chip in your Verizon BlackBerry
Storm.
 If you unlocked your Verizon
Storm, Google Maps worked fine on any other carrier
 Google has just released an updated version of Google
Maps for BlackBerry which supports GPS right out of the, the Storm is the only device with a third party-accessable
GPS chip.
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

•
•
•
•
•
• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
Industry Activity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Rapid Location Based Services Growth
Gartner 2/7/08
Projects substantial
LBS growth by 2011 due to GPS phone and content push driven by Nokia and
Google
$M
SubsM
LBS Revenue and Subscribers
485 1,300
2007 2008
16 43
8,000
2011
300
LBS Will Represent 6+% of Total WW Subs by 2011
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

In 2011, Navigation is Top LBS Application
ABI Research
At the GSM Mobile World
Congress World they were saying Cell Phones would replace PNDs within the next 5-7 years
If Smart Phones shipments continue to grow at 50+% annually, by
2016 they will outnumber the combined WW total of both PCs and Laptops
LBS Subs by Application
9%
15% 32%
Navigation
Enterprise
Tracker
POI
FF
19%
25%
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Gartner
Mobile technologies to watch in 2009 &10
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Bluetooth 3.0
—
The Bluetooth 3.0 specification will be released in 2009 (at which point its feature set will be frozen), with devices starting to arrive around 2010.
Location Sensing —
Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful; in the future, location will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking.
Display Technologies —
Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors.
Mobile Web and Widgets —
It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS).
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Bluetooth: Gaiting Factor to App Take-Up
Bluetooth attach rate with mobile handsets will continue to grow, climbing beyond 70% by 2012
IDC: Bluetooth revenue to double by 2012
Revenue for Bluetooth semiconductors will double in the next three years growing from $1.7 billion worldwide to $3.3 billion
12/08 IDC
Bluetooth headsets are the next big opportunity as safety concerns spur the interest in hands-free mobile phone use.
Another trend beginning to manifest, according to the study, is the integration of radio, smartphone and other connection platforms with Bluetooth devices.
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

 Unlike the well known GPS tracking devices used by hikers, mariners and drivers, most cell phone GPS tracking systems are more basic and do not allow the user to enter data. The FCC now requires that all cell phone carriers must be able to trace the location of cell phone calls to within a range of no more than 100 meters.
 Cellular GPS uses AGPS (Assisted Global Positioning
System) a combination of both cell phone towers and satellites as location finders.
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

4G Applications
Solutions need to be accurate to within tens of meters , make a Time to First Fix (TTFF) in under five seconds and work seamlessly across urban, suburban, rural, indoor and outdoor environments.
Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
A broad group of wireless carriers, software developers, device and network suppliers and content and service providers
Hybrid Approach
Using multiple technologies will provide the accuracy, latency, reliability, yield needed for 4G networks.
Assisted GPS (A-GPS),
Enhanced Cell-ID (ECID),
Uplink Time Difference of Arrival (UTDOA)
Wireless Location Signatures (WLS)
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

•
•
•
•
•
• Beginning Thought
A Little Cellular History
3G/4G Transition
Industry Activity
Cellular Challenges
Traffic Paradigm Shift
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Internet Advertising to Double
$25.5B 2007 to $51.1B 2012
IDC 5/28/08
WHY?
My Time
-what they want
-when they want
Sony Digital Media Entertainment
8X’s Faster
Than Advertising as a Whole
1-Direct Marketing
2-Internet (from 5 th )
3-Broadcast TV
4-CableTV
5-Newspapers
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Information
Location
Choice
Internet
Mass
Broadcast
Location Based
Advertising
-targeted communities
Add’l $’s for LBS vendors
-free funded navigation
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Google, Inc.
Yahoo!
OgilvyInteractive
MediaVest USA
VeriSign
Fox Mobile Group
Nokia
T-Mobile USA
SinglePoint
R/GA
Verizon
Alltel Wireless
Limbo Inc.
MTV Networks
CBS Corp.
Bain Capital Ventures mBlox
1024 Wireless Services
AT&T - Converged Services
The Weather Channel
Isobar
4G JobTitles
Global mobile monetization
Digital Innovation
Mobile Media
Mobile Brand Strategy
Mobile Advertising
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Giants
Applications-Google, Microsoft, Yahoo
TrafficCast a target?
Revenue Extraction
The user is information
Location
Broadand
Mass Market
Devices-Apple, RIM/Blackberry, Nokia
Garmin’s challenge
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary

Standards
User Base
Bandwidth
Uniquely mobile applications
Revenue extraction
User experience/willingness to pay
The Power of “Where”
JWIlson Confidential and Proprietary