Colorado second-quarter business confidence remains positive, says CUBoulder index
April 1, 2015
Richard Wobbekind
Confidence among Colorado business leaders remains optimistic, increasing
slightly going into the second quarter of 2015, according to the Leeds
Business Confidence Index released today by the University of Colorado
Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.
The latest reading is a milestone, says CU-Boulder economist Richard
Wobbekind, because during the past eight quarters confidence has been
more stable than ever in the index’s 11-year history.
CUT 1 “What’s really noticeable when you look at the survey over the past
three years - now we’re seeing very stable survey results. So business people
are not only evaluating the economy and saying, ‘things look good’, but
they’re very confident quarter after quarter that their beliefs are very solid.
(:19) So this really bodes well for not only just the next quarter or two, but,
actually, longer term because they have stable expectations right now and
very positive expectations right now.” (:29)
He says this also shows that not only do business leaders believe the
recession is over but that they’re seeing real economic growth in Colorado.
CUT 2 “You’d have to say we’re firmly out of the recession. They’re seeing the
amount of job growth that’s going on in the state. They’re seeing, apparently
from what they’re saying on their surveys, very strong responses to sales
growth, to people demanding more of their product and so that’s helping
reinforce the fact that they believe we’re on a growth trajectory.” (:19)
Wobbekind also says another indication of a healthy Colorado economy is
that personal income is finally catching up to the economic growth the state
is experiencing.
CUT 3 “The fact that personal income is rising so significantly year over year is
certainly an indication that the overall health in the economy is stronger and
very importantly, growing faster than the inflation rate year over year. So
we’re starting to see real gains in personal income. (:16) It’s also, I think,
reflective when you look at the hiring number in the index - it was the
biggest increase in the survey this quarter. To me they’re finally saying, ‘I’m
comfortable in hiring people.’” (:29)
And with the economy growing at a strong pace and the confidence of
business leaders up, Wobbekind says wages should also be on the upswing.
CUT 4 “You’d have to surmise with personal income going up and
unemployment rate now at 4.2 percent for the last several months in the state
that you’re going to start seeing wage effects. (:10) We know that they’re
occurring in some areas already – construction and in manufacturing, and in
high-tech types of jobs - but I have to believe that you’re going to see them
in a much broader level at this point.” (:23)
The only area where the confidence index is not strong is in the energyproducing sector. With oil prices remaining low energy companies are not
hiring and, in some cases, laying off workers. And even with lower gas prices
at the pump helping consumers to save money, Wobbekind says this will
negatively impact the state.
CUT 5 “We’ve analyzed the impacts of the energy prices on the economy and
we believe Colorado being an energy producing state that the lower gas
prices will actually be a net negative in terms of employment effects on the
state. (:14) So you have the positives - certainly for tourism and certainly for
the consumer - but given the amount of energy we produce in Colorado, the
net will be negative.” (:23)
For more information on the Leeds Business Confidence Index go
to: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2015/03/31/colorado-secondquarter-business-confidence-remains-positive-says-cu.
-CU-