Hispanics and the Changing
Racial Demographics
of the Intermountain West
William H. Frey
The Brookings Institution
www.frey-demographer.org

2008: Greater Minority Turnout and Share
of the Voter Population

“Fast-Growing” and “Slow-Growing”
Purple States

Where did Minorities Win the Election for
Obama?

Current Demographics and Polling in the
Mountain West
Democratic Margins by Race
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
91
77
36
27
20
12
-17 -12
Whites
Blacks
2004
Hispanics
Asians
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Number of Voters: 2004, 2008
millions
20
16.1
14.0
9.7
10
7.6
2.8
3.6
0
Blacks
Hispanics
2004
Asians
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population:
Whites*
Blacks*
Under Age 18
Asians*
22%
21%
2%
77%
Hispanics
30%
66%
42%
45%
53%
25%
4%
13%
Age 18+, Non Citizen
Eligible Voters
* Non Hispanics
Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 Supplement
Turnout Rates, 2004 and 2008
70
67
66
60
60
65
47
50
50
45
48
40
30
20
10
0
Whites
Blacks
2004
Hispanics
Asians
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Turnout Rates, 18-29 Year Olds
60
58
52
52
50
50
43
41
40
36
32
30
20
10
0
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics
2004
Source: Lopez and Taylor, Pew Hispanic Center, 2009
Asians
2008
2004-8 Growth:
Eligible Voters and Voters
35
28.4
30
25
21.4
20
10
0
20.4
15.1
15
5
30.3
6.8
2.1
0.5
-5
Whites
Blacks
Eligible Voters
Hispanics
Asians
Voters
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
2004 vs 2008 Comparisons
100%
Population
Eligible Voters
Voters
80%
60%
40%
68
65
2004
2008
76
73
2004
2008
79
76
2004
2008
20%
0%
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November supplements
Others
Hispanic Shares 2008 Populations, Voters
States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations
New Mexico
47
34
Texas
40
20
California
37
21
Arizona
12
Nevada
12
Florida
24
21
15
Colorado
18
9
New Jersey
9
10
New York
Illinois
17
16
14
6
0
32
10
Voters
20
30
Population
40
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2008 supplement
50
Blue Red and Purple States, 2008
Solid Blue
Solid Red
Purple-Dem
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Purple-Rep
Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008
Purple-Dem
Purple-Rep
All Other
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008
Purple-Dem
Purple-Rep
All Other
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2008 Voter Profiles of State Groupings
Fast Growing
Purple
Slow Growing
Purple
Solid Blue
Solid Red
0.8
0.8
1.6
8.3
7.8
1.7
9.8
5.1
7.5
14.5
10.7
16.1
72.5
Whites*
Blacks*
75.2
72.9
88.5
Hispanics
Asians*
Others*
* Non Hispanics
Source: William H. Frey analysis CPS November 2008 supplement
“Fast-Growing” vs “Slow-Growing”
Purple State Growth, 2004-8
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
41.8
36.8
28.0
12.6
8.3
7.8
8.3
-1.7
Whites
Blacks
Fast Growing
Hispanics
Asians,
Other
Slow Growing
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements
Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 2008
Nevada
100%
New Mexico
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
80
30%
73
56
55
2004
2008
20%
10%
0%
2004
Whites
2008
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
Others
Nevada
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
– Democratic Margins
89
73
54
21
12
-3
-12 -8
Total
Whites
2004
Blacks
Hispanics
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
New Mexico – Democratic Margins
50
39
40
30
20
15
12
10
0
-10
-1
-13 -14
-20
Total
Whites
2004
Hispanics
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Florida, Virginia Voters: 2004, 2008
Florida
100%
Virginia
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
76
71
2004
2008
30%
81
74
20%
10%
0%
Whites
Blacks
2004
Hispanics
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
2008
Others
Florida – Democratic Margins
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
92
73
15
3
-5
Total
-12
-15-14
Whites
2004
Blacks
Hispanics
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Virginia – Democratic Margins
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
75
84
31
6
-8
-21
-36
Total
Whites
2004
Blacks
Hispanics
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Ohio, Pennsylvania Voters: 2004, 2008
Ohio
100%
Pennsylvania
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
86
85
89
87
2004
2008
2004
2008
30%
20%
10%
0%
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November Supplements
Others
Ohio – Democratic Margins
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
95
68
5
-2
-12
Total
-6
Whites
2004
Blacks
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Pennsylvania – Democratic Margins
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
90
68
44 44
2
10
-9
Total
-3
Whites
2004
Blacks
Hispanics
2008
Source: William H. Frey analysis of National Election Poll and VNS
Where Minorities Won for Democrats
2004 - Kerry Took 20 States
10 states-whites went Democratic
(62 electoral college)
10 states-minorities won for Dems
(190 electoral college)
2008 - Obama Took 29 States
19 states-whites went Democratic
(223 electoral college)
10 states-minorities won for Dems
(142 electoral college)
Source: William H. Frey
2004 Blue States: Won by
Whites and Minorities
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2008 Blue States: Won by
Whites and Minorities
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2010 Population and Eligible Voters by
Race-Ethnicity: US and Mountain West
100%
90%
10
16
24
16
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
73
65
65
74
20%
10%
0%
Total Pop
Eligible Voters
USA
Whites
Blacks
Total Pop
Eligible Voters
Mountain West
Asians
Others
Hispanics
Total Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:
Six Mountain West States
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
41
44
New
Mexico
Whites
32
55
Arizona
Blacks
24
57
19
73
Nevada Colorado
Asians
Others
10
10
84
87
Utah
Idaho
Hispanics
Eligible Voters by Race-Ethnicity, 2010:
Six Mountain West States
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
33
53
New
Mexico
Whites
21
67
Arizona
Blacks
14
69
12
81
Nevada Colorado
Asians
Others
5
5
90
92
Utah
Idaho
Hispanics
Party Affiliation:
US Registered Latino Voters
(Registered Latinos)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
y2002
y2004
Democrat
y2006
y2008
y2010
Republican
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
Party with More Concern for Hispanics
(Registered Latinos)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
y2002
y2004
Democrat
y2006
y2008
y2010
Republican
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, "Latinos and the 2010 Elections" October 5, 2010
Right Direction/Wrong Track?
(Adults.6 MT West States)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Whites
Hispanics
Whites
Country
Hispanics
State
Right
Wrong
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Country: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
State: Right Direction Minus Wrong Track
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
Obama Favorability
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
(Adults: 6 MT West States)
26
8
11
9
12
50%
40%
30%
20%
44
55
35
10%
0%
Whites
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Hispanics
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
Obama: Favorable Minus Unfavorable
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
Bush Favorability
(Adults: 6 MT West States)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
25
16
15
17
15
17
40%
30%
20%
44
51
Whites
Hispanics
10%
0%
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
Palin Favorability
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
(Adsult: 6 MT West States)
24
11
18
14
10
24
40%
30%
20%
47
52
Whites
Hispanics
10%
0%
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
Congressional Democrat Favorability
(Adults: 6 MT West States)
100%
90%
12
80%
13
70%
60%
18
50%
23
17
23
40%
30%
57
20%
37
10%
0%
Whites
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Hispanics
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
Congressional Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
Congressional Republican Favorability
(Adults: 6 MT West States)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
15
14
17
16
26
23
42
47
Whites
Hispanics
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
Congressional Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
State Democrat Favorability
(Adults 6 MT West States)
100%
90%
15
80%
13
70%
60%
24
50%
20%
19
22
40%
30%
23
48
36
10%
0%
Whites
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Hispanics
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
State Democrats: Favorable Minus Unfavorable
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
State Republican Favorability
(Adults: 6 MT West States)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
24
17
25
18
16
24
30%
20%
10%
34
42
0%
Whites
Unfavorable
Neutral/NA
Hispanics
Favorable
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Very Favorable
State Republicans: Favorable Minus Unfavorable
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
Priority Issues for Whites
(percent ranking issue as extremely important)
1
57%
Jobs/Econ Growth
2
50%
Schools
3
49%
Federal Govt Spending
4
49%
Illegal Immigrants
5
43%
Crime and Drugs
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Priority Issues for Hispanics
(percent ranking issue as extremely important)
1
63%
Jobs/Econ Growth
2
63%
Schools
3
59%
Crime and Drugs
4
48%
Environment
5
47%
Health Care
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Obama Health Care Plan
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
17
25
15
7
11
25
7
12
40%
30%
20%
50
31
10%
0%
Whites
Strong Oppose
Oppose
Hispanics
DK/Ref
Support
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Strong Support
Financial Reform
100%
90%
80%
29
31
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
19
29
10
16
12
11
20%
10%
26
17
0%
Whites
Strong Oppose
Oppose
Hispanics
DK/Ref
Support
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Strong Support
Income Taxes
100%
90%
4
43
54
51
41
42
Whites
Hispanics
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Too High
About Right
Don't Pay/DK
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Too Low
Arizona Immigration Law
100%
90%
29
80%
57
70%
60%
50%
50
40%
30%
28
20%
10%
18
12
Whites
Hispanics
0%
Not Far Enough
About Right
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Goes Too Far
AZ Immigration Law: Goes Too Far
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arizona
Colorado
Whites
Nevada
Hispanics
New Mexico
Stop Illegal Immigration Flows
Federal Involvement Level?
100%
6
90%
13
17
80%
19
70%
60%
50%
40%
77
68
30%
20%
10%
0%
Whites
More
Hispanics
Same/DK
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Less
Illegal Flows: Need More Federal Involvement
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arizona
Colorado
Nevada
Whites
Hispanics
New Mexico
Deal with Illegals Here:
100%
Federal Involvement Level?
9
90%
20
19
80%
70%
22
60%
50%
40%
72
30%
58
20%
10%
0%
Whites
More
Hispanics
Same/DK
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Less
Deal with Illegals Here:
State Involvement Level?
100%
12
90%
80%
22
22
70%
26
60%
50%
40%
66
30%
52
20%
10%
0%
Whites
More
Hispanics
Same/DK
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Less
Illegals Here : Need More State Involvement
Whites and Hispanics - MT West States
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Arizona
Colorado
Whites
Nevada
Hispanics
New Mexico
Immigrants: Strength vs Burden
42
45
40
35
30
30
28
23
25
20
15
10
5
0
Whites
Strength
Hispanics
Burden
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey
Illegals: Pathway vs No Amnesty
50
46
45
40
35
35
31
30
23
25
20
15
10
5
0
Whites
Pathway
Hispanics
No Amnesty
Source: UNLV/BROOKINGS MOUNTAIN WEST Survey