1
New Metropolitan Politics in
the Mountain West
Robert Lang, Ph.D.
Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLV
Department of Sociology
Tom Sanchez, Ph.D.
Professor and Chair, Urban Affairs and Planning
Virginia Tech
Christina Nicholas
Ph.D. Candidate, UNLV
Department of Sociology
2
America Keeps Growing
200 million in 1967
300 million in 2006
400 million in 2039
America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation
except India and Pakistan—But faster than China. Most of
this gain is in large metros.
Source: Census Bureau
3
The Big Picture
• The New 3D Politics
Density + Diversity = Democrats
• Election 2008
The Suburbs Ruled!
• Looking Ahead to 2010 and Beyond
Demography = Destiny? Not always.
Especially not when the U.S. is in a deep
recession.
4
The New U.S. Urban Hierarchy
Types
Descriptions
Examples
Metropolitan
Statistical
Area
An “urbanized area” or “principal
city” with at least 50,000 people
plus surrounding counties with a
25% “Employment Interchange
Measure” (EIM) in 2000
Pittsburgh, Denver
Combined
Statistical
Area
Two or more adjacent micro and
metropolitan areas that have an
EIM of at least 15% in 2000
Washington/ Baltimore,
Cleveland/Akron
Megapolitan
Area—Defined by
UNLV/U of Utah
Two or more metropolitan areas
with anchor principal cities
between 50 and 200 miles apart
that will have an EIM of 15% by
2040 based on projection
Sun Corridor
(Phoenix/Tucson),
Northern California
(San Francisco/
Sacramento)
Mega-Region
Defined by RPA
and Lincoln
Institute
Large, connected networks of
metropolitan areas that maintain
environmental, cultural, and
functional linkages
Piedmont, Texas
Triangle
5
Old vs. New Census Definition
Old Classification
Metropolitan
Central City
Non-Central City
Non-Metropolitan
US Total
2000
Population
Share
of US
New Classification
2000
Population
Share
of US
226,207,070
80.4% Metropolitan
232,579,940
82.6%
80,303,510
145,903,560
28.5%
51.8%
92,566,816
140,013,124
32.9%
49.8%
29,412,298
19,429,668
10.5%
6.9%
55,214,836
Principal City
Non-Principal City
19.6% Micropolitan
Non-Metropolitan
281,421,906 100.0% US Total
281,421,906 100.0%
6
Original Metro Typology
• Brookings-County Typology
▫ Is Based on Commuting Patterns, Land Uses,
and Growth Rates
▫ Uses Five Categories
• Core—Cook, IL
• Inner Suburb—De Kalb, GA
• Mature Suburb—Fairfax, VA
• Emerging Suburb—Douglas, CO
• Exurb—Pinal, AZ
7
Metropolitan Areas
• Nearly All Population Gains to Mid Century
are in Metropolitan Areas
• A Greater Share of Metropolitan Growth
Will Occur in Built Up Areas
• Republican Rural and Exurban Vote Cannot
Offset The Democrats Gains in Urbanizing
Suburbs Much Longer
8
Dems Win 4 in 5 of P.V. Since 1988
9
Electoral Collage Votes, 1988-2008
Republican Dem Votes
Rep
Votes
Winner
Difference
Year
Democrat
2008
Obama
McCain
365
173
Dem
192
2004
Kerry
Bush
252
286
Rep
34
2000
Gore
Bush
267
271
Rep
4
1996
Clinton
Dole
379
159
Dem
220
1992
Clinton
Bush
370
168
Dem
202
1988
Dukakis
Bush
112
426
Rep
314
10
Suburban Politics
• The 2006 Democratic Gains Made in
Urbanizing Suburbs Expanded in 2008 and
Helped Obama win the Presidential Election
• Democrats now Dominate the Urbanizing
Suburbs and are at least Competitive at the
Metropolitan Fringe
11
2008 Democrats Gain and Loss
Source: USA Today
12
Red versus Blue (2006)
13
Geographic Breakdown of Mountain West
Metropolitans
Micropolitans
Non-Core Based
State
2009
Total
Population
Population
Population %
Population %
Arizona
6,595,778
6,121,626
92.8
383,549
5.8
90,603
1.3
Colorado
5,024,748
4,338,362
86.3
278,251
5.5
408,135
8.1
Idaho
1,545,801
1,150,758
74.4
384,038 24.8
11,005
0.7
Nevada
2,643,085
2,377,271
89.9
216,839
8.2
48,975
1.8
New Mexico
2,009,671
1,335,985
66.4
597,079 29.7
76,607
3.8
Utah
2,784,572
Southern
Mountain West 11,248,534
Northern
Mountain West 9,355,121
2,492,831
89.5
168,307
6.0
123,434
4.4
9,834,882
87.4
1,197,467 10.6
216,185
1.9
7,981,951
85.3
830,596
8.8
542,574
5.7
Mountain West 20,603,655
17,816,833
86.4
2,028,063
9.8
758,759
3.6
Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population Projections
Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.
Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.
%
14
Metropolitan Statistical Area Breakdown by Principal
and Non-Principal Cities
Metropolitans
Principal City
Non-Principal City
State
Population
Population
%
Arizona
6,121,626
3,135,578
51.3
2,986,048 48.7
Colorado
4,338,362
1,950,563
45.0
2,387,799 55.0
Idaho
1,150,758
473,028
41.1
677,730 58.9
Nevada
2,377,271
862,806
36.3
1,514,465 63.7
New Mexico
1,335,985
740,062
55.4
595,923 44.6
Utah
Southern
Mountain West
Northern
Mountain West
2,492,831
631,883
25.3
1,860,948 74.7
9,834,882
4,738,446
48.2
5,096,436 51.8
7,981,951
3,055,474
38.3
4,926,477 61.7
Mountain West
17,816,833
7,793,920
43.7
10,022,913 56.3
Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.
Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.
Population
%
15
Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Mountain
West
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Total
Population
Non-Principal City
Population %
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
4,364,094
2,050,069 46.9
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
2,552,195
1,562,512 61.0
606,376
319,428 52.6
1,902,834
1,138,372 59.8
857,903
328,684 38.3
1,130,293
947,191 83.8
Boise City-Nampa, ID
Las Vegas-Paradise*, NV
Albuquerque, NM
Salt Lake City, UT
Source: U.S. Census, 2009 Population Projection
* Paradise is a census designated place. Population projection obtained from American Community Survey
2006-2008.
Suburbs
50,000 + Core
16
Mountain West
The Democrats won the
Mountain West metro
counties in 2004 but won
these places by larger
margins in 2008 and help
flipped three states to the
Democrats.
17
2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections:
Republican to Democrat switch by Non-Metropolitan
and Metropolitan Counties
Non-Metropolitan
Metropolitan
D/D
D/D
R/D
R/D
R/R
R/R
18
Voter Distribution by State in the Mountain West,
2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections
Voter Turnout
States
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Nevada
New
Mexico
Utah
Year
Registered
Population
%
Republican
Population
%
Democrat
Population
%
Change
Turnout % R
2004
2,643,331
2,038,069 77.1 1,104,294 54.2
893,524 43.8
-
-
2008
2,987,451
2,320,851 77.7 1,230,111 53.0
1,034,707 44.6
0.6
-1.2
2004
2,411,551
2,146,372 89.0 1,101,256 51.3
1,000,607 46.6
-
-
2008
3,210,249
2,422,237 75.5 1,073,629 44.3
1,288,633 53.2
2004
798,015
612,786 76.8
409,235 66.8
181,098 29.6
-
-
2008
863,538
667,499 77.3
403,012 60.4
236,440 35.4
0.5
-6.4
2004
1,071,101
831,833 77.7
418,690 50.3
397,190 47.7
-
-
2008
1,208,382
970,018 80.3
412,827 42.6
533,736 55.0
2.6
-7.8
2004
1,145,172
775,301 67.7
376,950 48.6
370,941 47.8
-
-
2008
1,185,439
833,154 70.3
346,832 41.6
472,412 56.7
2.6
-7.0
2004
1,278,251
942,010 73.7
663,724 70.5
241,199 25.6
-
-
2008
1,432,525
971,185 67.8
596,030 61.4
327,670 33.7
-5.9
-9.1
-13.6 -7.0
19
Voter Distribution in the Mountain West, 2004 and 2008 Presidential
Elections
Voter Turnout
Region Year Registered Population
%
Republican
Population
%
Democrat
Population
Change
% Turnout % R
Southern
Mountain 2004
West
4,859,604 3,645,203 74.1 1,899,934 51.0 1,661,655 46.4
-
-
2008
5,381,272 4,124,023 76.1 1,989,770 45.7 2,040,855 52.1
1.9
-5.3
Northern
Mountain 2004
West
4,487,817 3,701,168 79.8 2,174,215 62.8 1,422,904 33.9
-
-
Mountain
2004
West
9,347,421 7,346,371 78.6 4,074,149 55.5 3,084,559 42.0
2008
5,506,312 4,060,921 73.5 2,072,671 55.3 1,852,743 40.7 -6.3
-
2008 10,887,584 8,184,944 75.2 4,062,441 49.6 3,893,598 47.6 -3.4
Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada.
Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.
-7.5
-5.8
20
Voter Distribution by largest MSA in each State, 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections
Voter Turnout
Year Registered Population
%
Republican
Population
%
Democrat
Population
Change
% Turnout % R
Phoenix-Mesa- 2004
Glendale, AZ
2008
1,643,514 1,277,117 74.8
1,876,590 1,486,666 76.3
716,461 56.4
805,869 55.0
532,101 41.7
646,420 42.6
Denver-Aurora- 2004
Broomfield, CO 2008
1,198,210 1,059,838 90.1
1,612,155 1,218,297 76.8
505,613 51.6
490,491 44.7
533,748 46.4
696,228 52.5 -13.3 -6.0
1.5
-1.4
Boise CityNampa, ID
2004
2008
301,031
335,878
229,241 75.2
263,160 78.3
147,016 70.5
147,122 64.2
75,221 25.6
106,733 31.5
3.12 -6.3
Las VegasParadise, NV
2004
2008
684,313
815,190
546,858 79.9
652,787 80.1
255,337 46.7
257,078 39.4
281,767 51.5
380,765 58.3
0.2
-7.3
Albuquerque,
NM
2004
2008
467,388
523,430
341,350 71.5
381,341 72.5
162,582 52.7
152,585 45.1
167,328 43.9
222,678 53.2
1.0
-7.6
Salt Lake City,
UT
2004
2008
529,967
574,920
339,214 69.5
404,555 66.6
235,845 60.6
194,646 50.3
147,056 35.4
192,350 45.6 -2.9
-10.2
21
What if only micropolitans and non-core based
areas voted in 2008?
Voter Turnout
Registered Population %
Republican
Democrat
Pop.
Pop.
%
%
Colorado
Micropolitans
Non-Core Based
168,232
272,842
123,592 73.5 61,708 52.1 59,048 45.6
202,439 78.0 103,059 63.9 93,566 31.9
Nevada
Micropolitans
Non-Core Based
110,626
22,526
92,034 82.1 54,704 62.8 34,482 33.8
18,350 79.5 9,059 63.3 6,093 32.0
Micropolitans
Non-Core Based
343,694
53,936
226,422 66.5 105,498 46.5 117,289 51.8
36,419 69.5 17,005 49.8 18,568 47.9
New Mexico
22
Did the Metropolitan Vote Tip the State to
Democrats in 2008?
Total Metropolitan
Total State
Votes
Voters
Colorado
Population %
Metropolitan
Democrat Votes
Population %
2,422,237
2,096,206 86.5
1,136,019 54.2
Nevada
970,018
859,634 88.6
493,161 57.4
New Mexico
833,154
570,313 68.4
336,555 59.0
23
Metropolitan votes failed to tip the state to
Democrats in 2004.
Total Metropolitan Metro Democrat
Total State
Voters
Votes
Voters
Population %
Population %
Colorado
2,146,372
1,841,348 85.7
875,583 47.6
Nevada
831,833
731,729 88.0
366,920 50.1
New Mexico
775,301
518,847 67.0
261,007 50.3
24
Thank you.