Vermont’s Future Forests
Sandy Wilmot
Forests, Parks & Recreation
Data and Source Credits
Forest Inventory and Assessment plots
– USDA Forest Service
Aerial survey
– Forests, Parks & Recreation
North American Maple Project plots
– Forests, Parks & Recreation
VMC Forest Health plots
– FPR and UVM Pontius Crew
Invasive pests
– FPR, USDA APHIS, Agency of Agriculture, UVM Extension, VT
Forest First Detectors Volunteers
Timber Harvest Assessment
– FPR, Grant from USDA Forest Service
Most Abundant Tree Species
Morin et al 2014 (In Press)
Current Conditions
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Persistent White Pine
Needle Diseases
Unknown Cause of
Red Pine Disease
Wind Storms and
Ice Storm
Hail Damage
-Rutland County July Storms
Hemlock Woolly Adelgid
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Elongate Hemlock Scale
A New Non-native Pest
Saddled Prominent
Traps
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Sugar Maple Crown Health
North American Maple Project
Dieback 0-15%
Dieback 20-35%
Dieback 40-50%
Dieback >50%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Sugar Maple Health
New Dead Overstory Trees
Percent New Dead Trees
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Statewide Mortality Ranked By Species
Average for all species = 0.8%.
Morin et al 2014 (In Press)
Distribution of ash, 2012
(EAB positive counties as of March 11, 2013)
Morin et al 2014 (In Press)
Ash Declines
Emerald Ash Borer Monitoring
Regeneration – The Future Forest
Sugar Maple Regeneration
North American Maple Project
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Factors affecting regeneration success:
•
Light reaching the forest floor
•
Soil conditions
•
Diseases and pests (including deer browse)
•
Competitive vegetation
•
Growing requirements
In 2013, 20% of the 30 sugar maple
monitoring plots had invasive plants…..
and 60% had light or moderate deer
browse on regeneration.
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Birch Saplings
East Slope of Mansfield
R² = 0.7899
Mount Mansfield
East Slope
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2014
Sugar Maple Saplings
East Slope of Mansfield
Beech Saplings
East Slope of Mansfield
R² = 0.7887
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
R² = 0.5617
50
Number of saplings
Number of saplings
Number of saplings
14
40
30
20
10
0
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2014
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
2014
0
2013
1
2007
West Slope of Mansfield
2006
2
2005
3
2004
70
2003
5
2002
80
2001
6
2000
R² = 0.9003
1999
Sugar Maple Saplings
1998
3
1997
4
1996
5
1995
2014
2013
6
1994
90
1993
4
Number of saplings
7
1992
2014
2013
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Number of saplings
West Slope of Mansfield
2007
West Slope of Mansfield
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
Number of saplings
Paper Birch Saplings
R² = 0.859
7
Mount Mansfield
West Slope
2
1
0
Balsam Fir Saplings
R² = 0.6224
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Lye Brook Saplings
35
y = -0.8786x + 32.962
R² = 0.7279
30
Number of saplings
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2012 2014
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Timber Harvest Assessment - 2012
Understory Assessment at 80 sites
Dominant Understory
Seedling/Sapling
5%
7%
Fern/Herbaceous
8%
Shrubs
Invasive Exotic Plant
47%
Beech Sprouts
32%
Forests, Parks & Recreation 2014
Statewide Trends in Sapling Abundance
Morin et al 2014 (In Press)
Species Abundance By Diameter Class
Morin et al 2014 (In Press)
Vermont’s Future Forests?
• Tree mortality
– Paper birch
• Invasive Pests
– Hemlock
– Ash
• Regeneration failures
– Sugar maple
• Regeneration successes
– Beech
– Balsam fir
• Climate change projections
– Less balsam fir, sugar maple, yellow birch
– More oak, hickory, pines