Reliable Power
Wind Integration in Alberta:
Market & Operational Framework
Reliable Markets
Implementation
AESO Stakeholder Information Session
October 19, 2007
Reliable People
Warren Frost
Vice President,
Operations & Reliability
Laura Letourneau,
Director, Market Services
Purpose of Today’s Session
• Ensure understanding of the Market & Operational
Framework (MOF) for Wind Integration in Alberta
• Communicate our plans for MOF implementation and ensure
stakeholders understand when and how they can participate
• Provide opportunity to receive input and feedback on our
approach and plans for developing and implementing MOF
2
Outline
• Role of AESO and facts
about Alberta
• Reviewing Wind Integration
Challenges
• Wind Integration Journey in
Alberta
• Market and Operational
Framework Addresses the
Challenges
• MOF Implementation Plans
• Next steps
3
Role of Alberta Electric System Operator
(AESO)
• Independent System Operator for
the Alberta Interconnected
Electric System
– System Operations: direct the
reliable operation of Alberta’s power
grid
– Markets: develop and operate
Alberta’s real-time wholesale
energy market to facilitate fair,
efficient and open competition
– Transmission System
Development: plan and develop
Alberta’s transmission system to
ensure continued reliability and
facilitate the competitive market and
investment in new supply
– Transmission System Access:
provide system access for both
generation and load customers
4
Alberta’s Electric Industry
• 9,661 MW peak and 80% LF
• 11,849 MW total generation
5,893 MW
4,412 MW
(Wind)
497 MW
(Other renewables)
BC
178 MW
869 MW
• Over 280 generating units
Alta
Sask
• Wholesale market with about
200 market participants
• > 21,000 km of transmission
• Interties BC (up to 780 MW) &
Sask. (up to 150 MW)
5
Reviewing the challenges to
integrating wind
• Reliability issues beyond 900 MW
– need mitigating measures, resources
and the scale/costs escalate rapidly
beyond 900 MW
• Wind power is variable – sometimes
unpredictable, increases or decreases
rapidly and wind patterns can be counter
to load
• Need dispatchable generation –
capability from conventional generation
considering physical limits (ramping limits
and start up times)
• Transmission upgrades – need
upgrades in SE/SW of the province
• Large wind potential in Alberta –
framework, mitigating measures,
obligations and costs were not defined
Wind power and
load do not
correlate well
6
2006 Data
Generation Characteristics
12000
10000
MW Capacity
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2006 Data 2weeks per division
Non-Disp.
Disp. MW
Reserves (Active+Standby)
Off
7
Need Dispatchable Resources to
Accommodate Wind
Market Capability
Above Baseload
Amount of dispatchable
generation varies according to
market conditions
Baseload
Generation
8
Adding more wind
• To integrate more wind the operator needs to
“know what to do” and “have the necessary
resources/tools”
• Current resources/tools
 The energy merit order
 Regulating reserves
• New resources/tools
 Wind power forecasting
 Additional regulating reserves
 Supply / load following service, (i.e. the
service would accommodate pumped storage,
batteries, others?)
 Power and/or ramp-rate limiting of wind power
facilities
9
Wind Integration Journey
2003
Initiate study
on large
scale wind
1200 MW
2004
Wind Power
Facility
Standard put
in place with
caveats on
wind power
management
Further
studies on
operational
issues and
need for
Wind Power
Management
2005
2006
Wind
Variability
study
released
Phase 2
System
Impact
Studies
Phase 1
System
Impact
Studies
Confirms
need for
additional
mitigating
measures
Confirms
need for
additional
mitigating
measures
2007
Develop and
finalize
Initiate joint market and
operational
AESOframework
CANWEA
(MOF)
collaboration
900 MW
Threshold
Replace
temporary
threshold
with MOF
10
Market and Operational Framework
• Market and Operational Framework (March 2007) replaced the
temporary 900 MW threshold – effective September 26, 2007
• Premise of framework - If the System Operator receives a reasonable
forecast of wind power generation, then they can establish an operating
plan to accommodate the forecast wind energy by using the following
resources/tools:
– Forecasting
– The Energy Market Merit Order
– Regulating Reserves
– Wind Following Services
– Wind Power Management
11
Challenges and Solutions
CHALLENGES
MOF SOLUTIONS
Predictability of wind power
Wind power forecasting
rules and requirements
Backup generation for
wind power
Energy Market, Regulating
Reserves, Wind Following
Wind variability, supply
surplus, ramping events
Wind power management,
forecasting & OPPs
Transmission development
Credible forecasts of
wind project development
Wind interconnection projects
Queue management
Load
Transmission and ancillary services
Cost Allocation
Wind Facility Owners
Forecasting and Power management
12
Key MOF Conclusions
• Wind is not fully dispatchable therefore:
– Wind Must Forecast supply ‘offer’ (Must Offer = Must Forecast for wind generation
Wind Power forecasts will not set price - $0/price taker
• Regulating Reserves and/or Load/Supply Following are Ancillary Services
– therefore according to current Policy (TDP) and Regulation (TReg) costs will be
allocated to load
– level of reasonable procurement of additional ancillary services is less clear and will
be monitored
• Market participants are obligated to comply with dispatch instructions and
directives from the system controller. Wind generators will meet this obligation
by:
– installing power management technology as a condition of service
– complying with instruction from the system controller to limit output in the event the
system cannot absorb all the forecasted or actual wind generation
• As per TDP, “constrained down payments will not be paid to generators”
13
What’s Changed?
Replacing Threshold with MOF
• Industry acceptance of mitigating tools to manage load-supply balance
with increasing supply variability
– Wind responsibility for power management
• Industry acceptance order of use of tools
– Forecasting > Energy Market > Ancillary Services > Wind Power
Management
• Industry acceptance on cost allocation
– Forecasting – wind generators
– Ancillary Services – load
– Power Management costs (operating & capital) – wind generators
• We have made progress on forecasting and system operator tools
14
Next Steps in Wind Integration
• Currently 497 MW operating on the
grid today with;
– No major operational issues & no
increased ancillary services
– Gaining experience with wind and
learning from events
• 545 MW anticipated by end of 2007
• 1400 MW can be accommodated
with approved transmission upgrades
• Continued strong interest in wind
development in Alberta
• Implement Market and Operational
Framework over the next year or so
15
Implementing the Market and
Operational Framework
Technical
Requirements
for Power
Management
Integration Beyond
2000 MW
Diversity?
Interconnection
Queue
Management
Wind Forecasting
System Operator
Tools
Generation Scenario
Development &
Tx Planning
Market &
Operational Rules
16
Next – Implementation Plans
• Introduce leader for each work activity who will speak to:
– Focus/objective for work
– Work approach & plan
– If / how / when stakeholders participate
– Progress to date
• Stakeholder Input / Feedback
(please hold comments and questions until all work leaders have
presented, unless needed to clarify understanding)
• Conclusion & Next Steps
17
Wind Integration Work Streams
• Market & Operating Rules (Laura Letourneau)
• Power Management (John Kehler)
• Forecasting (Darren McCrank)
• System Operator Tools (Ming Hu)
• Interconnection (Fred Ritter)
– Queue Management Practices
– Standards for Interconnection (Power Management &
Forecasting Requirement)
• Generator Scenario Development Methodology (Jeff Nish)
• Transmission Planning (Ata Rehman)
• Diversity (John Kehler)
18
Reliable Power
Market & Operations
Rules & Procedures
Reliable Markets
Laura Letourneau
Reliable People
Structure of the ISO Rules
• Primarily the combination of three documents:
– Market Participation Rules
– Settlement System Code (Load Settlement)
– Operating Policies & Procedures
• Public document posted on the AESO web site
“www.aeso.ca”
20
How are ISO Rules made?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Need identified and reviewed by applicable business area
Rule change analysis (add, modify, delete)
Initial proposal
Stakeholder consultation
Recommendation
Decision
Implementation
The ISO Rules Change Process is a quarterly cycle and typically takes
4-5 months to complete. Implementation may be delayed, depending on
complexity.
21
ISO Rule Change Process
22
MOF – Anticipated Rule Changes
• Forecasting requirements
– Frequency/timing
– Accuracy/Compliance
• Power Management procedures
– Supply Surplus - $0 offer dispatch procedures
– Other wind power management conditions & curtailment protocol
• Ancillary Services
– Refinement/improvements to Operating Reserve Market
– Development of Supply Following Service
• Other?
23
Approach/Timelines
• AESO has well established processes for the development
and approval of all rule changes (Market/OPP/Settlement)
• These processes will be used for all rules developed to
implement MOF
• Stakeholders, therefore, have opportunity to provide
input/feedback during the consultation stages
• Timelines for changes are dependent on other work
activities
– Forecasting (interim-earliest mid-08; final-earliest Dec ‘08)
– Power Management (earliest mid ’08)
– Ancillary Services
24
Operating Reserves Market
Redesign Proposal
• Timing
– Proposal will be circulated to industry in October.
– Opportunities for changes to product on current NGX platform as
first phased in step. Interim proposal could envision:
• change of contract with NGX to address design issues
• change of procurement to auction format
– Decisions for Operating Reserve market will be made following
normal consultation
– In the interim, the AESO will continue to procure Operating
Reserves to meet forecasts developed by the Operations Planning
Group.
• expect increase in levels as wind is added.
25
Operating Reserves Market
Redesign Proposal
• Current design overly complex for size
– AESO forecasts operational need at least day ahead
– AESO as single buyer
– Price established at equilibrium between bid and offers
– Misalignment with energy market
• Proposal to align Operating Reserves (OR) with energy at T-2
– Dispatch OR offers from merit order instead or “pre-purchasing”
– Changes to pricing
• Moving Operating Reserves closer to real time allows for:
– use of near real-time forecasts
– Integration of the active and standby products – increasing market depth
– Convergence and efficiencies of assets across energy and OR
26
Reliable Power
Operational Overview
Reliable Markets
John Kehler
Reliable People
Real-time system operation
Supply-demand balancing seems simple at first - When demand
changes, supply is dispatched up or down to match
The trick is keeping up with changes to prevent large imbalances from
occurring - So operators need additional information to help out
Demand
Supply
28
Supply-Demand Balancing Input
What is Changing?
What is the
load forecast
change? What
is the ramp
rate?
How good is
the load
forecast
today?
What are the
Interconnection
schedules?
What generators
are still ramping
from the last
dispatch? How
much energy is
still to come?
Is the merit
order
changing?
How good is
the wind
power
forecast
today?
Net Change
Ramp rate requirement
What is the
wind power
forecast?
What is the
ramp rate?
29
Supply-Demand Balancing
Dispatch Decision
What is the ramp
rate capability in
the merit order
over the next 10,
20, 30 minutes?
What are the
Regulating
Reserve
units doing?
Do I need to
dispatch more
ancillary
services?
How much
capacity to
dispatch to get the
required ramp
rate?
Will I need to
activate any
Wind Power
Management
procedures?
Will I need to
activate Supply
Surplus /
Shortfall
procedures?
Dispatch Decision
30
Repeat When Necessary
What
Whatisisthe
theramp
ramp
rate
ratecapability
capabilityinin
the
merit
order
the merit order
over
overthe
thenext
next10,
10,
20,
20,30
30minutes?
minutes?
What
Whatare
arethe
the
Regulating
Regulating
Reserve
Reserveunits
units
doing?
doing?
Do
DoI Ineed
needto
to
dispatch
dispatchmore
more
ancillary
ancillary
services?
services?
How
Howmuch
muchcapacity
capacity
to
todispatch
dispatchto
toget
get
the
required
the requiredramp
ramp
rate
rate??
Will
WillI Ineed
needto
to
activate
activateany
any
WPM
WPM
procedures?
procedures?
Will
WillI Ineed
needto
to
activate
activateSupply
Supply
Surplus
Surplus/ /Shortfall
Shortfall
procedures?
procedures?
Dispatch Decision
31
Reliable Power
Wind Power Management
John Kehler
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
Review of Wind Power Management and
the Market and Operational Framework
• “ In situations where the system cannot absorb all the
forecasted or actual wind power generated, maintaining
system security will call for wind power to be dispatched
down, ramp rate limited or dispatched off”
• “This may occur during the following conditions:
– Forecast loss of wind and insufficient ancillary services or ramping
services
– Supply surplus – thermal units will not be dispatched below
minimum stable operating limits
– Insufficient ancillary services
– Unforeseen wind conditions
33
Workgroups and Industry Representation
for Wind Power Management
• Work groups will implement the Market and Operational Framework for wind power
management
• Work groups will develop recommendations to put forth to industry and stakeholders for
consultation
• Three work groups are proposed primarily due to the different mix of participants required.
– Work Group #1 - WPF technical requirements
• AESO, manufacturers, technical staff from wind power developers with
operational facilities, new wind developers
– Work Group #2 - Supply Surplus protocol
• AESO, Merchant generators, Industrial generators, Importers, Wind power
developers from existing facilities, new wind power developers
– Work Group #3 - Wind power management protocol
• AESO, Wind power developers from existing facilities, new wind power
developers, regulating reserve providers
34
Purpose of Workgroup #1
• Wind Power Facility technical requirements
– Provide recommendations to the AESO on;
• Technical specifications at WPFs for ramp rate limiting, power limiting
and supplemental over frequency control
• Technical specifications for WPF operators to activate / deactivate ramp
rate limiting and power limiting from AESO dispatch systems
• The recommendations are planned to be complete during
early Q1 2008 and posted for industry feedback
• The recommendations once approved by the AESO will be
forward to the Standards group for implementation using
existing consultation processes
35
Purpose of Workgroup #2
• Supply Surplus protocol
– Provide recommendations to the AESO on a new protocol for out of
market $0 offer dispatch
• Recommendations will include considerations for generation curtailment
from the merchant, industrial and wind generation when supply surplus
conditions exist.
• The recommendations are planned to be complete by Q1
2008 and posted for industry feedback
• The recommendations once approved by the AESO will be
forward to the OPP groups for implementation using existing
consultation processes
36
Purpose of Workgroup #3
• Wind power management protocol
– The purpose of the workgroup is to provide recommendations to the
AESO to implement ramp and power limiting protocol for;
• Forecast loss of wind and insufficient services
• Insufficient ancillary services
• Unforeseen wind conditions
• Disturbances and emergency conditions
• The recommendations are planned to be complete by Q1
2008 and posted for industry feedback
• The recommendations once approved by the AESO will be
forward to the OPP groups for implementation using existing
consultation processes
37
Next Steps
• Kickoff meeting will include all 3 work groups and proposed
date is Wed. Nov 7 from 9:00 to 12:00 AM.
• Industry or stakeholders seeking interested in participating
on a work group or work groups please contact
john.kehler@aeso.ca
38
Reliable Power
Wind Power Forecasting
Darren McCrank
“If the System Operator receives a reasonable forecast
of wind power generation, then …”
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
The Pilot Project
Defining a Reasonable Forecast
Purpose:
• To evaluate different forecasting methods in order to find the
most effective means to forecast wind power in Alberta.
• To leverage the experience of other jurisdictions globally
• To educate Alberta’s power industry, including the AESO, on
wind power forecasting techniques and capabilities
• To recommend wind power forecasting requirements to be
implemented in Alberta
40
The Pilot Project Design
• Trial three very different forecasting
methods over a one year period:
•
AWS Truewind (US)
•
WEProg (Denmark)
•
energy and meteo (Germany)
• 4 different geographic terrains / wind
regimes in Alberta
• T-1 to T-48 hrs refreshed hourly
• 7 existing and 5 future facilities to
represent geographic diversity and
future expansion
Funded by
AESO
Alberta Energy Research Institute
Alberta Department Of Energy
• Data Collection by Phoenix Eng.
(Calgary) – 1 met tower/site
• Independent analytical analysis from
ORTECH (Canada)
41
The Pilot Project Schedule
• Feb 2007 - April 2007
• Data Collection, model training (using historical information)
• April, 2007
• Forecast Delivery Began
• Quarterly Reports
• Sept 07, Nov 07, Feb 08
• Final Report
• Draft End May 08
• Final End Jul 08
42
Wind Forecasting Work Group
Established in July 2006
• Implied task: Be prepared to complete any additional tasks
assigned by the AESO
• Additional tasks could include designing an interim method
of forecasting until the pilot project is complete
• This task could be triggered by operational issues or
inefficient use of Ancillary Services
• No change to current work group membership, meetings
and timelines
43
September 6, 2007
Day Ahead Forecasts (delivered 7am Sept 5)
350
350
300
300
7am Forecasts on [2007/09/05] for Next Day
250
250
Pre-7AM
Pre-7AM
F1 F1
Pre-7AM
Pre-7AM
F2 F2
200
Pre-7AM
Pre-7AM
F3 F3
Actual Wind
150
100
100
Sep07
Sep07
04:48
04:48
Sep07
Sep07
00:00
00:00
Sep06
Sep06
19:12
19:12
Sep06
Sep06
14:24
14:24
Sep06
Sep06
09:36
09:36
Sep06
Sep06
04:48
04:48
Sep06
Sep06
00:00
00:00
Sep05
Sep05
19:12
19:12
50
50
0
0
44
The forecasts delivered at noon on
Sept 6
350
Unforeseen
Wind
Condition
300
250
1-min MW
f cst 1
f cst 2
200
f cst 3
150
100
50
0
Sep07 02:24
Sep07 00:00
Sep06 21:36
Sep06 19:12
Sep06 16:48
Sep06 14:24
Sep06 12:00
45
October 10, 2007
Day Ahead Forecasts (delivered 7am Oct 9)
500
500
450
450
Actual Wind
400
400
f cst 1 Wind
Actual
350
350
f cst 2
300
300
f cst 3
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
00
Oct11 04:48
Oct11 00:00
Oct10 19:12
Oct10 14:24
Oct10 09:36
04:48
Oct10 04:48
Oct10
00:00
Oct10 00:00
Oct10
19:12
Oct09 19:12
Oct09
46
Reliable Power
System Operator Tools
Reliable Markets
Ming Hu
Reliable People
Purpose
– Engineering tool
• To design and test protocols, procedures before
implementation into OPPs
– Real-time system operation tool
• To effectively manage:
• The procedures in the real-time
• complicated real-time system operation with Efficiency,
Consistency and Transparency
– Common basis for knowledge sharing, experience
and continuous improvement
48
Status and Consultation
• Status
– Design and development started in Q4 2006
– Testing started July 2007 with System Operators
– Several improvements based on operator feedback
– Ready to help out the workstreams
• Workgroup and Consultation
– No external working groups due to the confidential
nature of the tools and the data
– The AESO will update progress and demonstrate tools
when applicable
49
Architecture of the Tool
System Supply and
Control
System Change
System Status
• Energy Market Merit Order
• What has been dispatched
• Load forecast
• Actual generator output
• Actual and forecast Interchange
Schedules
• Generator ramping characteristics
• Wind power forecast (new)
• Regulating reserve merit order
• Load Supply Following (new)
System Considerations
Tool
• Wind Power Management (new)
Assess the situation & risk of:
• ATC Limits
• Uncertainty Analysis (new)
- System Ramping Capability
- Supply Shortfall issue
- Supply Surplus (Zero-offer) issue
- Minimum technical output issue
OTC violation issue
•
•
•
•
•
Energy Market Dispatch
Trigger Supply surplus procedure
Trigger Supply shortfall procedure
Trigger Additional AS procedure
Trigger WPM procedure
50
Example of 8 Hour Assessment
8500
8500
The graph assumes we are at midnight
MO Ramping
issue
8000
7500
MO TOP
8000
7500
Alberta
Internal Load
7000
7000
Load served
by Market
Grid Load
6500
6000
6500
EMD
target
Wind generation
forecast
TMR
5500
5500
Wind generation
forecast
MO Dispatch
6000
5000
5000
Zero offer in MO
4500
4500
Minimum Technical Output
4000
4000
08:55
08:40
08:25
08:10
07:55
07:40
07:25
07:10
06:55
06:40
06:25
06:10
05:55
05:40
05:25
05:10
04:55
04:40
04:25
04:10
03:55
03:40
03:25
03:10
02:55
02:40
02:25
02:10
01:55
01:40
01:25
01:10
00:55
00:40
00:25
00:10
23:55
Numbers are not real
For concept demonstration only
51
Reliable Power
Customer Interconnections
Reliable Markets
Fred Ritter
Reliable People
Customer Interconnections
• Interconnection queue management
• Wind power facility technical requirements
53
Technical RequirementsInterconnections
Modifications planned to the AESO’s existing “Wind Power
Facility – Technical Requirements – November 15, 2004”
•Voltage Ride Through
•Governor Control
•Operational controls (ramp rate and power rate limits)
•Forecasting
54
Standard Applicability
• Determine which of the existing wind power facilities will be
obligated to meet the new requirements.
– November 15, 2004 Technical Requirements provides direction
• Much like the last revision to the Generation and Load
Standard each wind generator will be informed of their
specific obligations.
– Draft standard for stakeholder comment
– Reference in AESO Project Functional Specifications
– Direct customer contact
55
New or Modified Requirements
• Voltage Ride Through – WECC is in the process of
developing new requirements which will become an AESO
requirement.
• Governor Control – The need for the addition of governor
control and how it would be implemented.
• Operational controls – The technical requirements for the
operation of both ramp rate limits and power rate limits.
– Includes SCADA signaling and the required setting ranges. Actual
settings and application will be determined by System Operations
and documented in an OPP.
56
New or Modified Requirements
(continued)
•
Forecasting - The technical requirements for forecasting
will be determined by the end of 2008 and incorporated
into the standard as a separate revision.
57
Standards Development Timeline
• Draft Standard for external comment by March 1, 2008.
• Final Standard by June 1, 2008.
• Forecasting will be a future revision planned for the end of
2008.
58
Technical Requirements – contacts
Questions, please contact either of the following:
Dan Shield at (403) 539-2502 or dan.shield@aeso.ca
OR
Fred Ritter at (403) 539-2616 or fred.ritter@aeso.ca
59
Reliable Power
Generation Scenarios for
Transmission Planning
Reliable Markets
Jeff Nish
Reliable People
Transmission Planning Approach
20-Year Outlook
Generation and Load Focused
High Level, Conceptual Transmission Alternatives
10-Year Transmission Plan
Roadmap for Transmission Development
Context for Need Applications
Individual Need
Applications
61
Generation Scenarios for 10-year
Plan Published in 2007
Hydro
100MW
Cogeneration
1,700-2,200MW
Coal
650-1,650MW
Other
100MW
IGCC
0-500MW
Coal
0-1,000MW
Wind
1,200-2,900MW
Gas
400MW
A 10% reserve
margin was used
to determine the
amount of
required new
generation.
62
Long-term Planning Underway
• AESO load forecast and generation scenarios are key
inputs to bulk and regional transmission system
concepts
• Generation scenarios describe the development that
may occur under the Market & Operational Framework
Consultation:
– Ongoing with generation developers and CanWEA to create
reasonable 10 and 20 year generation development scenarios
– Stakeholder session presenting draft generation scenarios in
late November 2007
– Current target to update 10-year Plan and 20-year Outlook in
2008
63
Reliable Power
Transmission System
Planning
Reliable Markets
Ata Rehman
Reliable People
Transmission Planning at the
AESO
20 Year Outlook
Generation and load focused
High level, conceptual Transmission Alternatives
10 Year Transmission Plan - Roadmap
for Transmission Development
Context for Need Applications
Specific Bulk and
Regional Studies
65
Planning Stages for Need
Applications
• Need Assessment
• Alternative Screening
• Alternative Assessment and Recommendation
– Technical
– Economical
– Social
• Environmental/Landowner Impacts
• Need Identification Document filed with the Alberta Energy
and Utilities Board (EUB) for approval
• Extensive Stakeholder Consultation during each Stage
66
Regional Transmission
Development Initiatives
• Northeast Alberta Transmission Development
– Interconnection Proposals at different stages
– Regional Plan in Initial Stages
• Northwest Alberta Transmission Development
– TFO in Facility Application Stage
• Wabamun/Edmonton Area Transmission Development
– Need Analysis Underway
• Central Area (Hanna, Battle River, Sheerness)
– Need Analysis Underway
67
Regional Transmission
Development Initiatives Cont.
• Southwest Transmission Development
– TFO in Facility Application Stage
• Southeast Transmission Development
– Need Application Submitted in September
68
Wind Integration in Southern
Alberta
• Two Aspects for AESO Transmission
– Interconnection Proposals
– System Reinforcements
• Challenges
– Time Lines
• All IPs to be completed by 3rd Quarter of 2008
• System Reinforcements with Extensive Stakeholder Consultation
• Stakeholder Consultation on System Reinforcement
– One-on-one meetings – early November
– Open houses scheduled for mid – November
69
Reliable Power
Diversity
Reliable Markets
John Kehler
Reliable People
Background
• MOF
– “ The AESO does not expressly have a role in the centralized planning of
generation investments. As such, the final arbiter of the value of wind power
diversification will be with the investors that allocate capital to specific wind
generation facilities”
• That being said, many stakeholders expressed interest in better
understanding diversity and market signals for diversity
• AESO Response to MOF Comments:
– “We do intend to conduct further studies to explore the degree and value of
diversity as it pertains to the managing wind variability costs and the
development and implementation of policy, rules and business practices
71
Principles where Diversity Changes
the Behavior or Wind Power
Alberta Wind Generation
Diversity can effect the short term
variability and the longer term
ramps
400
300
MW
AESO studies indicated
that short term
variability increases
with wind power
development “but” not
in proportion to growth
200
Long term
ramps
Short term
variability
100
AESO studies and
observation of the
existing WPFs is that
diversity has less effect
on the long term ramps
Diver
sity
EastWest
0
1 Hour Per Division
Existing WPFs
dispersed
throughout
southern
Alberta
72
What do we know about diversity in
Alberta today
• Existing and proposed facilities are dominantly in
Southern Alberta
• For analysis purposes the regions have been
identified as SW, SC, SE and Central
• Existing facilities are in the SW, SC and SE areas
and have strong correlation (ramp up or down
together) in the 1 hour time frame
• It is possible that with no threshold that wind
power development
Alberta
Wind Power Generationin
by Region
in Alberta will take on a larger
(1 Hour Average Data)
footprint and change the behavior of wind power
through diversification
350
400
300
350
Diversity
East-West
Wind Power Generation by Region in Alberta
(1 Hour Average Data)
300
250
SE
SC
SW
150
100
MW
MW
250
200
SE
SC
SW
200
150
100
50
50
0
0
1 Day Per Division
Aug 2007 Week 3
The most amount of correlation observed
in 2007
1 Day Per Division
Aug 2007 Week 3
The least amount of correlation
Wind Power
Facilities
observed
in 2007
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Next Steps
• Commencing Nov 2007, the AESO will monitor and publish
a weekly report that will show the diversity of the operational
wind power facilities as well as other operational aspects of
wind power generation.
• The AESO has examined diversity in the data from the 2004
system impact studies and can publish our findings of this
work.
• The AESO will continue to work with the industry and
explore the understanding of diversity as wind power
developments consumes a larger footprint in Alberta.
• No specific work group on diversity will be developed at this
time.
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Questions/Comments
on Implementation
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Next Steps
• Please provide any feedback on implementation to
laura.letourneau@aeso.ca
• AESO will publish comments
• Each work stream will keep market participants informed
and up to date through our newsletter and our website.
Please monitor progress and opportunities for participation.
• In addition, the leads for each work stream are appropriate
contacts for further information.
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