BUILDING A GRADUATION
NATION-Colorado
Donnell-Kay and Piton Foundation
Hot Lunch Presentation
Nov. 21, 2008
Robert Balfanz
Everyone Graduates Center
Johns Hopkins University
The Nation’s and Colorado’s
Graduation Rate Crisis
Is an Economic Drain-In the 21st Century
Economic Growth is Driven by Human
Capital-HS Dropouts are a net cost
 Is the Engine of the Under-class-idleness
rates-(neither in school nor the labor market)
of 18 to 24 year old high school dropouts can
approach 50%
 If left unaddressed threatens the nation’s
social fabric as it will create communities cut
off from full participation in American society


Solving the Graduation Rate Crisis
Will ultimately pay for itself in increased tax
revenues and decreased social welfare costs
 Enable accelerated economic growth
 Reduce Crime
 Increase Social Justice


In Other words-the equivalent of the public
policy triple crown
And the Good News is it’s Doable
SOLVING THE GRADUATION RATE CRISIS:
FIVE COMPONENTS

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Know who, when, where, and why students are
dropping out
Transform schools
Develop comprehensive student support systems
(in and out of school)

Establish supportive policies and resource allocations

Build community will and capacity
KNOW WHO, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY
STUDENTS ARE DROPPING OUT
COLORADO’S
GRADUATION CHALLENGE


Class of 2005-18,000 more 9th-graders than
diplomas
Class of 2005-6,000 more 12th-graders than
diplomas
Total Number of Students and Graduates
Class of 2005 Grade Enrollments and Graduates for Colorado Public Schools
70,000
65,000
62,756
60,000
55,000
55,384
54,053 54,856
53,377
52,524
51,410 51,229 52,030
55,938
52,288
50,387
50,000
44,532
45,000
40,000
Grade
4 MAIN TYPES OF DROPOUTS

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Life events (forces outside of school cause
students to drop out)
Fade Outs (students do OK in school but stop
seeing a reason for staying)
Push Outs (students who are or perceived to be
detrimental to others in the school)
Failing in school, schools failing students
EACH REQUIRES A DIFFERENT STRATEGY
FAILING TO SUCCEED IN SCHOOL
 In
high poverty environments, these students
typically constitute the majority of dropouts
 Are
easily identifiable using data routinely
collected by schools
 Can
be identified at key junctures of
secondary school when their odds for success
are about to take a turn for the worse
 Often
persist in school for a long time before
dropping out, despite years of struggles
MAJOR FINDING
 Students
in high poverty school districts who
successfully navigate grades 6 to 10 on time
and on track, by and large, graduate from
high school (75% or higher grad rates)
 Students
in high poverty school districts who
struggle and become disengaged in the early
secondary grades and particularly those who
have an unsuccessful 6th and/or 9th grade
transition do not graduate (20% or less grad
rates)
STUDENTS ARE KNOCKED OFF COURSE
IN THE EARLY SECONDARY GRADES
BY THE ABCS
Attendance
Behavior
Course Failure
EFFECTIVE INTERVENTIONS AND PROVEN
MODELS EXIST
WHAT WE FACE
IS A GIANT ENGINEERING CHALLENGE OF
GETTING THE RIGHT INTERVENTIONS
TO THE RIGHT STUDENTS
AT THE RIGHT TIME
WITH THE REQUIRED INTENSITY
FOUR STEPS TOWARD ACHIEVING THIS
STEP 1
COMPREHENSIVE, SYSTEMATIC AND
SUSTAINED WHOLE SCHOOL REFORMS
THAT ADDRESS ATTENDANCE,
BEHAVIOR, AND COURSE PERFORMANCE

Limited reforms or partial implementation will lead to
limited or partial success
Parental Involvement
Figure 3
Structural Equation Model
Environmental Context of Student Learnging and Achievement
Behavior
Academic Press
Teacher Support
Achievement Gain
Attendance
Utility
GPA
1
Intrinsic Interest
AT EACH KEY TRANSITION
CONSIDER BOTH ACADEMIC AND SOCIAL
NEEDS



Elementary Grades-Basic Academic Skills and
Knowledge and socialized into the norms of
schooling in a joyful manner
Middle Grades - Intermediate academic skills
(reading comprehension and fluency, transition
from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for
adventure and camaraderie
High School - Transition to adult behaviors and
mind set and a path to college and career
readiness, as well as the right extra help for
students with below grade level skills
STEP 2
LINK EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS TO
INTERVENTIONS




Need to be able to respond to the first signs that
a student is falling off track
Systematically apply school-wide preventative,
targeted and intensive interventions until
student is on-track
Great place to use national service organizations
(City Year, Americorps) to provide mentoring,
tutoring, homework support, and managing
attendance and behavior programs at the needed
scale for an affordable price
Need integrated student support providers (e.g.
Communities in Schools) to bring in and monitor
case-managed professional supports for the most
in need students
STEP 3
INVOLVE THE COMMUNITY
 Community-specific
data analysis to
establish how many students drop out, when
and why to enable reforms to be targeted at
the right students at the right scale and
intensity
A
community compact-multi-year plan to end
the dropout crisis
 Community
can provide program managers
not just incentives
 Work
with social service providers to
coordinate efforts and make the case for
investing social service dollars in school
prevention efforts.
STEP 4
ARE EXISTING POLICIES AND PRACTICES
SUPPORTIVE OF GRADUATION FOR ALL


Attendance, grading, suspension, grade promotion,
and credit polices can implicitly and explicitly,
knowingly and unknowingly enable or work against
graduation for all
Need to conduct a policy audit at school, school district,
and state levels
FADE OUTS

Not easy to predict but don’t usually constitute the
majority of dropouts.

Sometimes leave as late as the 12th grade only a few
credits shy of graduation.

Often regret dropping out soon after they do. Many
call it the worst decision of their lives.

Substantial numbers try to re-enter educational
system.

Often need rapid credit acquisition opportunities
linked with work opportunities.

Many need stronger college and career linkages to
drive home the connection between high school
graduation and future success.
LIFE EVENTS



Often have very low graduation rates
Do not typically constitute the majority of
dropouts
Need second chance opportunities and enhanced
social supports to overcome life event
IN LARGE CITIES
THE SOCIAL SAFETY NET IS NOT WORKING
FINAL STEPS:
1. RESOURCE ALLOCATION
 Need
to integrate all youth development
efforts toward keeping students on the
graduation path college and career ready
 Need
to make sure that sufficient resourceshuman, social, and financial-are available to
provide the scale of student supports required
 Need
to make data based decisions on
resource allocation; need to take degree of
educational difficulty into account as well as
number and concentration of students in
need of which supports
FINAL STEPS:
2. COMMUNITY COMPACTS

Communities bear the costs of the dropout crisis.
they need to be part of the solution

Need a 5 to 10 year commitment

Need to bring together multiple sectors

Need data based plans and on-going evaluation
Colorado on the Cutting Edge:
Statewide Dropout Initiative: Five
District Data Analysis
Background to Study
Governor Ritter declares goal of decreasing the
dropout rate in Colorado 50% in ten years and
establishes P-20 council to include subcommittee
to examine dropout prevention and recovery
 Several foundations establish Statewide Dropout
Initiative, including
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Colorado Children’s Campaign
Colorado Foundation for Families and Children
Colorado Youth for a Change
Donnell-Kay Foundation
Five Colorado districts agree to participate in a
data analysis initiative with Johns Hopkins
University.
Research Questions:
How can understanding the behavioral
characteristics of dropouts in the Colorado
districts help inform efforts for dropout
prevention and recovery?
To what extent are current 9th graders
and MS students displaying warning
signals of a potential dropout outcome?
Description of Research Study

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Analysis used de-identified student level
administrative data from districts
Followed 2006-07 secondary students back in time
4 years
Constructed cohort of 2003-04 9th graders when
possible and followed forward to on-time
graduation year (2006-07) to examine student
outcomes
Identified characteristics distinguishing dropouts
from graduates and others still in school
Examined dropout risk factors for current middle
school and 9th grade students
Focused on Behavioral Warning Signals


To what extent are dropouts giving signals (even years in
advance) that they are at risk of not graduating?
To what extent is a dropout outcome related to the ABCs
identified in prior research:




Attendance
Behavior
Course Failure
To what extent are current middle school and 9th grade
students displaying early warning signals through
problems in these ABCs?
Summary of Findings
Most dropouts are giving warning signals even
years in advance
 Majorities of dropouts have at least one 9th grade
semester failure (to some extent related to
attendance and academic proficiency)
 Failing even one or two semester courses in 9th
grade dramatically reduces probability of on-time
graduation
 Dropouts have higher levels of suspensions than
others, but this is not as strong a predictor of
dropping out as course failure and attendance

Recommendations

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Need to implement early warning systems and tiered interventions
in middle school and 9th grade, with follow-through in later grades
Reduction of the dropout rate will demand a commitment to
providing recovery options within courses, before failure occurs
(rather than only afterwards)
Interdisciplinary teams need to meet regularly to analyze student
data, devise solutions, and monitor progress
Interventions to improve attendance and behavior must allow for
continued in-school learning
Need comprehensive approach that has integrated prevention,
intervention, and recovery elements and at the scale and scope
required to cut the dropout rate in half (or by more).
TO LEARN MORE
* READ “WHAT YOUR COMMUNITY CAN DO
TO END ITS DROPOUT CRISIS”
* USE “GRAD NATION GUIDEBOOK” FROM
THE AMERICA’S PROMISE ALLIANCE
* VISIT WWW.EVERY1GRADUATES.ORG
* E-MAIL RBALFANZ@CSOS.JHU.EDU