Global Change:
Greenhouse Gases
Environmental Sustainability Educational Resources
prepared by
Gregory A. Keoleian
Associate Research Scientist,
School of Natural Resources and Environment
Co-Director, Center for Sustainable Systems
University of Michigan
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Contents
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Human Impact on Global Climate
Greenhouse Effect
Global Warming Potentials
1998 GHG Emissions in U.S.
Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998
Carbon Dioxide (non-energy related) Emissions
Methane Emissions
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions
Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) Emissions
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Emissions
[slide 4]
[slide 5]
[slide 6]
[slide 7]
[slide 8]
[slide 9]
[slide 10]
[slide 11]
[slide 12]
[slide 13]
2
• Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected
Manufacturing Industries, 1994
[slide 14]
• CO2 Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries[slide 15]
• Global Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
[slides 16 - 17]
• CO2 & Temperature Relationships (Historical) [slides 18- 19]
• GHG Emissions (Projected)
[slide 20]
• Carbon Emissions by Region 1997
[slide 20]
• Carbon Emissions by Region 2020
[slide 21]
• Potential Climate Change Impacts
[slide 22]
– Temperature
[slides 23-25]
– Sea level
[slides 26-27]
• Policy: Kyoto Protocol
[slides 28 - 29]
• Additional Resources
[slide 30]
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Human Impact on Global Climate
• “The balance of evidence suggests a
discernable human influence on global
climate” IPCC 1995
4
5
Global Warming Potentials
(100 year time horizon)
Greenhouse gases
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Hydrofluorocarbons (e.g., HFC 134a)
Perfluorcarbon (e.g., CF4)
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)
GWP
1
21
310
1300
6500
23,900
6
7
Trends in U.S. GHG Emissions, 1990–1998
1,850
1,800
1,750
MMTCE
1,700
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Year
8
Carbon Dioxide (non-energy
related) Emissions
• Cement manufacture
– calcium carbonate is heated to produce lime
– In 1998, the United States manufactured an
estimated 85.5 million metric tons of cement,
resulting in the direct release of carbon dioxide
containing about 10.6 million metric tons of
carbon into the atmosphere.
9
Methane Emissions
• Energy production and consumption
– coal mining
– natural gas systems
• Waste management
– landfill gas
• Agriculture
– manure management
– cattle (enteric fermentation)
– rice cultivation
10
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Emissions
• Agricultural soil management
– nitrogen fertilization
• Mobile sources
• Adipic acid production
– used to make nylon
11
Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s)
• Aluminum production
– perfloromethane (CF4)
• GWP = 6500
– perfloroethane (C2F6)
• GWP = 9200
12
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)
Emissions
• Insulator for electrical equipment
• Fugitive emission from semiconductor
manufacture
• Cover gas for magnesium production
– prevents the oxidation of molten magnesium in
presence of air
13
Total Energy Related Carbon Emissions for Selected
Manufacturing Industries, 1994
Petroleum and Coal Products
Chemicals and Allied Products
Primary Metal Industries
Paper and Allied Products
Food and Kindred Products
Stone, Clay and Glass Products
All Other Manufacturing Industries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Million Metric Tons
14
90
Carbon Emissions per Capita for Selected Countries
United States
Canada
Netherlands
Industrialized Countries
Germany
United Kingdom
South Korea
Japan
Former Soviet Union
Italy
France
World
Mexico
Turkey
China
Developing Countries
Brazil
India
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Metric Tons Carbon
15
16
17
Expected Consequences of GHG
Concentration Increases
• Temperature: Global temperatures are
rising. Observations collected over the last
century suggest that the average land
surface temperature has risen 0.45-0.6°C
(0.8-1.0°F) in the last century.
18
19
Carbon Emissions by Region 1997
(6175 Million Metric Tons Carbon)
20
Carbon Emissions by Region 2020
(10,009 Million Metric Tons Carbon)
21
22
Predictions of future temperature
• Since 1979, scientists have generally agreed
that a doubling of atmospheric carbon
dioxide increases the earth’s average surface
temperature by 1.5-4.5°C (3-8°F).
23
24
New Temperature Projections
• The globally averaged surface temperature
is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC over
the period 1990 to 2100.
• Source: Shanghai Draft 21-01-2001 IPCC
WGI THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT
25
Sea Level
• Sea level has risen worldwide
approximately 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) in the
last century. Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2
inches) of the rise has resulted from the
melting of mountain glaciers. Another 2-7
cm has resulted from the expansion of
ocean water that resulted from warmer
ocean temperatures.
26
27
Kyoto Protocol
• Framework
– stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to prevent
anthropogenic interference with the climate system
– emission targets for industrialized countries between
2008-2012 are collectively about 5% lower than 1990
emissions
• US target is 7% reduction
• developing countries do not have quantified targets
– six gases
• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
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• The Protocol is subject to ratification,
acceptance, approval or accession by Parties
to the Convention.
– It shall enter into force on the ninetieth day
after the date on which not less than 55 Parties
to the Convention, incorporating Annex I
Parties which accounted in total for at least 55
% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for
1990 from that group, have deposited their
instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval
or accession.
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Additional Resources
• Global Change Courses at the University of
Michigan
– Introduction to Global Change (AOSS 171/172)
– http://www.sprl.umich.edu/GCL/
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