ELECTRIC VEHICLES
•Will Barnard
•Pam Becker
•Troy “Hugin” Noble
•Linda Sonne
•Jonathan Weiss
•Christian Wiest
•Ted Yu
Coming soon to your everyday life!

Agenda
• EV Overview
• EV Value Proposition
• Bayesian Network Overview
• Results and Sensitivity
• Limitations of Model
• Recommendations

What are EV’s?

Why should people like driving an EV?
• Quiet, Clean Driving Experience
• High Performance
• Lower Operating Costs
• No Gas Stations - Refuel Where You Are!
• Environmentally Friendly
• Energy Security

But are they safe?

Where can I charge?
How long will it take?
How far can I go?

What is the cost?
• Vehicle
– Purchase
– Lease
– Subsidies
• Ownership
– Battery Replacement
– Wear and Tear
• Refueling

Consumer Sensitivity
Minimum Efficient Scale: 60% Acceptance
Price: $1,000 Premium
Range: 100 miles

Stakeholders
Stackeholders Parties Interests
Consumers Individual, Rental, Corporate
Fleet, Public Transportation

Performance

Total Cost of Ownership

Convenience

Environmental protection Ecological
Petroleum Stakeholders
Electric Stakeholders
Political Stakeholders
Car Manufacturers
EPA, Sierra Club, World
Population
Gas Stations, Foreign
Governments

Continue world dependence on fossil fuels
Battery Manufacturers, Public
Utilities,

New sources of revenue

Technological gains

Efficient use of available capacity
Local, National, and Foreign
Governments
World Manufacturers, New
Ventures

Decrease dependence on foreign resources

Serve constituents

Profitable production

Servicing consumer demand

Bayesian Network:
Problem Statement:
Determine the probability of success of EV’s for an existing car manufacturer.
Electic Vehicle
Supply
Consumer Demand Manuf. Investment
R&D and Capital
Government
Requirements
Government
Assistance

Network Weights
Electic Vehicle
Supply
Consumer Demand
0.35
Education &
Information
Value
Proposition
Societal
Acceptance
Manuf. Investment
R&D and Capital
0.20
Economics
Partnerships &
Alliances
Success of
Competitors
Government
Requirements
0.20
Lobbying
Global
Regulations
Domestic
Regulations
Government
Assistance
0.15
Anti-trust
Laws
Patents
Subsidies

Results and Sensitivity Analysis
• Results :
Probability (Supply = High) = 54.79%
•
Sensitivity :
– If Consumer Demand has 100% probability of being high:
Probability (Supply = High) = 69.94%
– If Consumer Demand has 100% probability of being low:
Probability (Supply = Low) = 34.94%

Limitations of model
• Dilution of probabilities given high number of hierarchy levels
• Independence of probabilities
• Definition of influence weights
• Constraint of two states of nature per node
• Lack of consideration of time shifts

Recommendations
• Investment
– Prioritize according to influence of primary nodes
– Create an implementation timeline
• Demand
– Continue to monitor external influences
• Stakeholders
– Partner for lobbying and product development