Another world food crisis?
Behind the headlines on global hunger
Will Masters
Professor of Food Policy, Friedman School of Nutrition, Tufts University
www.nutrition.tufts.edu
Director, Nutrition Collaborative Research Support Program for Africa
www.nutritioncrsp.org
24 February 2011
Another world food crisis?
Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000-Feb. 2011
450
400
Wheat
350
Maize
300
Rice
250
200
150
100
50
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
-
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data (www.fao.org/giews/pricetool),
downloaded Feb 20, 2011. All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US
No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
Food price spikes make headlines…
April 2008
January 2011
Behind the headlines:
A century of food and farm crises
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2007
1990-2007:
Complacency
1900-1970:
Cycles with an upward trend
1970-1990:
The green
revolution
Source: Computed from http://ngrams.googlelabs.com, 20 Feb. 2011. Method detailed in J-B
Michel et al., 2010. Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books. Science,
Dec. 2010.
Food prices tell the story:
Short spikes and long valleys
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2008
1990-2007:
Complacency
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries.
Historical headlines help explain the pattern
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2008
February 1917
August 1918
April 1973
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries.
Looking forward, is the party over?
Will food prices now keep rising?
Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000-Feb. 2011
450
400
Wheat
350
Maize
300
Rice
250
200
150
100
50
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
Jul-00
Jan-00
-
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data (www.fao.org/giews/pricetool),
downloaded Feb 20, 2011. All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US
No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
Will food prices keep rising?
Drivers of Long-Term Change
Demand increase
Population growth
Dietary transition
Political power
Biofuels
Land use
Export restrictions
Environmental damage
Climate change
Groundwater
depletion
Soil
degradation
Evolution
of pests
Technology & innovation
Private investment
Farmers, input suppliers
Processors/traders
Public investment
Infrastructure (water, transport,
power, telecomm.)
R&D (by governments
and philanthropies)
Will food prices keep rising?
Drivers of Short-Term Change
Monthly average prices for wheat, maize and rice, Jan. 2000-Feb. 2011
Weather
= climate change?
Policy surprises
Ethanol
Export restrictions/import increases
Money supply/inflation/growth
Expectations about future prices
Speculation about future prices
Source: FAO Global Information and Early Warning System data (www.fao.org/giews/pricetool),
downloaded Feb 20, 2011. All are monthly export prices, normalized to Jan. 2000=100, for US
No. 2 Hard Red Winter Wheat, US No. 2 Yellow Maize, and Thai 100% Broken Rice.
Focusing on nutrition:
Prices matter, but other things do too!
Share of all two-word phrases in English-language books, 1900-2008
March 13, 2002
World: Many
Relative price of food on world markets, 1900-2005 (1977-79=100)
Hungry Mouths
Around 815 million people -- 13
percent of the world's population -suffer from hunger and malnutrition,
mostly in developing countries, said
Jacques Diouf, head of the United
Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization.
Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.”
<www.worldbank.org/agdistortions>. Data shown are an index of export prices in US dollars for all major traded
agricultural products, deflated by the MUV index which is the unit value of manufactures exported from France,
Germany, Japan, UK and US, with weights based on those countries’ exports to developing countries.
The nutrition outlook:
Regional patterns and trends
• Major trends by region
– Hunger, poverty and child underweight
• Outlook for the future
– Crop yields and demography
Major trends by region:
Hunger
Source: FAO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium
Development Goals Report 2010. New York: United
Nations (September 2010).
Poverty
Source: World Bank estimates, reprinted from the Millennium
Development Goals Report 2010. New York: United
Nations (September 2010).
Major trends by region:
Hunger
Source: FAO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium
Development Goals Report 2010. New York: United
Nations (September 2010).
Child underweight
Source: WHO estimates, reprinted from the Millennium
Development Goals Report 2010. New York: United
Nations (September 2010).
Major trends in selected countries:
Steady improvement where child underweight is worst
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Major trends in selected countries:
Mixed results in Africa
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Major trends in selected countries:
Mixed results in Africa
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Outlook for the future:
Is Africa’s green revolution finally arriving?
USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2010
4.5
4.0
Rest-of-World
World
3.5
Southeast Asia
3.0
South Asia
2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 7 Nov 2010. Results
shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye,
sorghum and wheat.
Outlook for the future:
Is Africa’s green revolution finally arriving?
Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and
Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.
Outlook for the future:
Demography matters!
Rural population tends to rise and then fall
Billions
10
World (total)
2.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.8
8
Total
1.6
Total
7
Urban
1.4
Urban
1.2
2010
Rural
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision ,
released April 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1970
0.0
2050
0
2040
0.2
2030
1
2020
0.4
2000
2
1990
0.6
1980
3
1970
0.8
1960
4
1950
2010
1.0
1960
Rural
5
1950
6
1980
9
2010
Billions
UN Population Projections estimates of urban and rural population, 1950-2050
Outlook for the future:
Demography matters!
Africa had the world’s largest increase in rural population
Rural population by region, 1950-2050
Rural population estimates and projections, 1950-2030
Index
1950=100
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Curren rural
population
Rising rural population
implies decline in land
available per person
SS Africa
≈480 m.
S Asia
≈1.1 b.
≈310 m.
≈1.4 b.
We are here:
SE Asia
Rest of
World
0
Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections are
based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).
Outlook for the future:
Demography matters!
Africa had the fastest and longest rural population growth
RuralRural
population
growth
rates(decade
by region,
1950-2030
population
growth
averages),
1950-2030
2.5%
Over 2% annual growth
for 30 years!
2.0%
Under 1.3% annually,
and falling
1.5%
1.0%
SS Africa
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
S Asia
Below zero = more land/farmer
SE Asia
Rest of
World
Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections
are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).
Outlook for the future:
Demography matters!
Africa also had the fastest urban population growth
Urban
population
growth
by region,
Urban
population
growth
(decade1950-2030
averages), 1950-2030
6.0%
5.0%
Africa has had the world’s
fastest growing cities
From >5% annually
…to <4%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
SS Africa
S Asia
SE Asia
Rest of World
0.0%
Source: Calculated from FAOStat (downloaded 17 March 2009). Rural population estimates and projections
are based on UN Population Projections (2006 revision) and UN Urbanization Prospects (2001 revision).
Outlook for the future:
Demography matters!
Africa’s long baby boom is finally entering the workforce
Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030
Total dependency rates (ages 0-14 and 65+), 1950-2030
50
Africa had the world’s most severe
demographic burden (>45% )
now a demographic gift
45
40
SS Africa
S Asia
35
SE Asia
Rest of World
30
Source: Calculated from UN Population Projections, 2008 revision (March 2009), at http://esa.un.org/unpp.
Behind the headlines on global hunger:
Some conclusions
• World food prices are high and could keep rising
– A spike-and-valley pattern is normal
– Pressure for higher prices include
• grain users’ willingness to pay, especially for use as biofuels and as feed
• exporters’ willingness to cut their exports in times of scarcity
– Potential for lower prices comes mainly from
• public investment in agricultural R&D and infrastructure
• World prices matter but other factors also influence nutrition
– Income growth and direct interventions have helped many countries
– Asia’s high levels of child underweight are slowly improving
– Africa will also improve (slowly), through its long-delayed green
revolution, and through slower but continued rural population growth
For more on the USAID-funded Global
Nutrition Collaborative Research Support Program
(Nutrition CRSP)
please visit:
http://nutritioncrsp.org
For direct contacts:
William.Masters@tufts.edu
1.617.636.3751
http://nutrition.tufts.edu
http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters