Population Growth and Housing in California
Hans Johnson
Public Policy Institute of California
johnson@ppic.org
PPIC
1
Outline
 Demographic determinants of housing
demand
 Population changes for key groups
 Regional patterns
 Public opinion
PPIC
2
Average Annual Population Change and
New Housing Units by Decade
Population change (thousands)
New housing units (thousands)
Ratio of population change to new housing units
600
4.0
500
3.3
400
2.7
300
2.0
200
1.3
100
0.7
0
0.0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
PPIC
3
Average Annual Population Change and
New Housing Units by Decade
Population change (thousands)
New housing units (thousands)
Ratio of population change to new housing units
600
4.0
500
3.3
400
2.7
300
2.0
200
1.3
100
0.7
0
0.0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
PPIC
4
Average Annual Population Change and
New Housing Units by Decade
Population change
New housing units
Ratio of population change to new housing units
3.9
600
4.0
3.3
500
3.3
2.9
400
2.7
2.0
300
2.0
1.7
200
1.3
100
0.7
0
0.0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
PPIC
5
Why the mismatch between population
growth and housing?
 Insufficient supply of new housing
 Not all population growth is equal with
respect to generating housing demand:
– Children do not form their own
households
– Young adults have low household
formation rates
– Immigrants and Latinos tend to have
higher family and household sizes
PPIC
6
Householder rates vary by age
Probability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
18-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
65-74
75+
PPIC
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Householder rates vary
by nativity and ethnicity
Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000
African American
API foreign born
API U.S. born
Latino foreign born
Latino U.S. born
White foreign born
White U.S. born
Foreign born
U.S. born
Total
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
PPIC
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Outline
 Demographic determinants of housing
demand
 Population changes for key groups
 Regional patterns
 Public opinion
PPIC
9
Absolute population growth
will be strong this decade
Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population
7,000
Absolute change (left axis, in thousands)
Percentage change (right axis)
6,000
30%
25%
5,000
20%
4,000
15%
3,000
10%
2,000
1,000
5%
0
0%
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
PPIC
10
Increase in adult population was much
lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, but…
5,000
4,731
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,621
2,500
1980 to 1990
1990 to 2000
2,000
1,500
1,362 1,494
1,000
500
0
Children
Adults
PPIC
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…projections show strong growth in adult
populations in the next two decades
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
1980 to
1990 to
2000 to
2010 to
3,000
2,500
2,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
1,500
1,000
500
0
Children
Adults
PPIC
12
Growth in U.S.-born population also
slowed substantially, but…
Population Growth in California:
Change in Foreign Born and U.S. Born Populations (in thousands)
3,500
3,224
3,000
2,500
2,868
2,405
2,000
1,706
1980 to 1990
1990 to 2000
1,500
1,000
500
Foreign born
U.S. born
PPIC
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…second generation will reach prime
household formation ages
Population by immigrant generation, 2000
1,800,000
1,600,000
First
Second
Third+
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-
Age
PPIC
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Outline
 Demographic determinants of housing
demand
 Population changes for key groups
 Regional patterns
 Public opinion
PPIC
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Highest population
growth rates in inland regions
35% or more
20% to 35%
Less than 20%
PPIC
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Median Rents in Counties with
High Rent Burdens
Siskiyou
Trinity
Yuba
Imperial
Kern
Del Norte
Fresno
Humboldt
Madera
Shasta
Butte
Lake
Stanislaus
Tuolumne
San Joaquin
San Bernardino
Riverside
Yolo
Los Angeles
San Luis Obispo
Santa Barbara
Santa Cruz
California
0
200
400
Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at
least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent
600
800
1000
PPIC
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California’s Most Crowded Places
Persons per household
Lost Hills CDP
Pajaro CDP
Las Lomas CDP
Chualar CDP
South San Jose Hills CDP
Mecca CDP
East Compton CDP
Cutler CDP
Richgrove CDP
Greenfield city
Coachella city
Lynwood city
London CDP
Castroville CDP
Kettleman City CDP
West Puente Valley CDP
San Joaquin city
5.60
5.28
5.26
5.18
5.07
5.04
5.01
4.94
4.85
4.75
4.72
4.70
4.69
4.69
4.68
4.67
4.66
PPIC
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Outline
 Demographic determinants of housing
demand
 Population changes for key groups
 Regional patterns
 Public opinion
PPIC
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Percent who say issue is
a “big problem” now
80
70
67
63
60
50
44
42
40
39
30
20
10
0
Affordable
housing
Traffic
Schools
Jobs
Air pollution
PPIC
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Confidence in state government’s
ability to plan for future growth is low
How much confidence do you have in the state government’s
Ability to plan for the state’s future and growth?
don't know
2%
none at all
9%
a great deal
12%
very little
31%
only some
46%
PPIC
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Percent who say the following problems
will get worse by 2025
90
81
80
78
69
70
60
50
47
46
Jobs
Schools
40
30
20
10
0
Traffic
Housing
Air pollution
PPIC
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PPIC
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New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004
350
800
300
700
250
600
200
500
150
400
100
300
50
200
Units (thousands)
Population change (thousands)
0
100
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
PPIC
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Ratio of Population Change to
New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
PPIC
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Population Change and
New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004
350
800
300
700
250
600
200
500
150
400
100
300
50
200
Units (thousands)
Population change (thousands)
0
100
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
PPIC
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