“Gain vs Pain”
Political economy of climate
change negotiations
Michael Zammit Cutajar
Ambassador for Climate Change,
Malta
11 Mar 2008
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Outline
•
•
•
•
Political agenda (slides 3-8)
Players and playing field (9-11)
Features of negotiation (12-21)
Political outlook (22-25)
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Climate change at 20:
a strategic issue
• MET + ENV => Economy => Finance, FA =>
Heads
• Security impacts:
– Water and food; energy
– Natural disasters, territorial integrity (SLR)
– Population movements
• IPCC messages now widely recognized
– “Our understanding has come a long way”
• SG/UN High-level event Sept. 2007
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Key messages
IPCC AR4, Stern Review
• Human-induced change is unequivocal
– Faster than expected
• Impacts generally negative
– Compounding poverty, fragility, inequality
• Warming beyond 2°C = “danger” (EU)
• Prevention is cheaper than cure (globally)
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Pain …
• For fighting chance of “safety” (<2°C)
• Global emissions should peak around
2020 …
• And fall below 50% of 1990 levels by
2050
• ENORMOUS CHALLENGE!
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… Gain
• Early action costs less than inaction
– Stern: 5 to 20 times less (global estimate)
• Pathway to “safety” will knock <3% off
global GDP growth to 2030
– <0.12% per annum
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Political questions
• Not whether? But …
• What? How much? When?
• BY WHOM?
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Top 25 « footprints »
(WRI/Pew Center; data for 2004 - LUCF 2000)
Top 25 in
Population
Egypt,
Nigeria,
Vietnam,
Philippines,
Bangladesh,
Ethiopia,
Pakistan
(Taiwan), Netherlands,
Argentina
Turkey
Top 25 in GDP
USA, China, EU25,
Canada,
Russia, India, Japan,
Rep. Korea,
Germany, Brazil, UK,
Australia,
Italy, France, Mexico,
S. Africa,
Indonesia, Iran, Thailand
Spain,
Poland
Myanmar,
D.R.Congo
Saudi Arabia,
Malaysia
Top 25 in
CO2 emissions
(incl. LUCF)
Negotiating framework
• 1988-1992: Convention (UNFCCC, 190+
Parties)
– Objective, principles, cooperation, reporting
– Aim for developed countries: 2000 = 1990
• 1995-2001: Kyoto Protocol (175+ Parties)
– Targets for developed countries (2008-2012)
– Market mechanisms => Marrakech rules
• 2005-2009: Montreal & Bali processes
– Protocol and Convention tracks
– “Bali Action Plan” - “Bali Road Map”
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Strategic parameters
• Aim: avoid “dangerous interference”
– Two prongs: Mitigation + Adaptation
• To limit climate change to “safe” (tolerable) levels
• So that the challenge of adaptation is manageable
• & sustainable devt. and food security not impaired
• Criteria:
– Inclusiveness (=> effective, fair)
– Solidarity
– Urgency
• Question: “safe”, “tolerable”, “manageable”
FOR WHOM?
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Assessing the problem
1. Negotiations are driven by science

Growing confidence in IPCC assessments

Caveat: re “Summary for policy-makers”
2. Motivation to act is highly variable
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•

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Low spatial correlation between cause and effect
Large variation in capacity to cope
Many losers - but some short-term winners
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Projected patterns of precipitation changes
2090/2099 : 1980/1999
Dec-Feb
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Greenland ismelting!
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Arctic sea ice
09.09.2007
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Median Sept. Extent
1979-2000
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Shaping the response
3. Mitigation vs Adaptation




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Mitigation = division, confrontation
Vulnerability = unifying condition
Adaptation = unifying message
Adaptation first?
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Mitigation strategy:
responsibilities
4. Responsibility
 “common but differentiated
responsibilities”
 historical responsibility (equity)
 responsibility for the future
 NB. national circumstances,“respective
capabilities”
 NB. burdens or opportunities
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Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential
(Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT
Tons per cap
1950-2000 cumulative
Intensity
(tCO2e)
CO2 - % world + T/cap Kt/M$GDP
% World
emissions
Excl
LUCF
Incl
Excl
Incl
LUCF LUCF LUCF
Energy
Energy
Plus LUC
Excl
LUCF
USA
19.2
24.3
0.70
EU 25
13.2
10.5
0.46
Annex I
48.4
39.3
World
54.2
14.1
13.9
5.9
7.2
3.3
4.9
73.8%
456 T/cap
52.6%
457 T/cap
0.64
122 T/cap
171 T/cap
0.80
27.1%
42 T/cap
47.6%
103 T/cap
0.91
NonAnnex I
43.7
China
13.6
3.9
0.98
India
4.5
1.6
0.67
Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential
(Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)
Source: WRI/CAIT
% World
emissions
Excl
LUCF
Tons per cap
(tCO2e)
Incl
LUCF
Excl
LUCF
1950-2000 cumulative
CO2 - % world + T/cap
Incl
Energy
LUCF
Energy
Plus LUC
Intensity
Kt/M$GDP
Excl
LUCF
USA
19.2
24.3
0.70
EU 25
13.2
10.5
0.46
Russian Fed.
5.3
13.0
1.86
Japan
3.8
10.8
0.41
Annex I
48.4
39.3
14.1
13.9
73.8%
456 T/cap
52.6%
0.64
457 T/cap
Non-Annex I
43.7
54.2
3.3
4.9
27.1%
42 T/cap
47.6%
0.91
103 T/cap
China
13.6
3.9
0.98
India
4.5
1.6
0.67
Brazil
2.7
5.3
5.5
13.4
0.76
Indonesia
1.4
7.0
2.4
14.9
0.84
Mitigation strategy:
options
5. Targets


National OR sectoral
Absolute OR intensity
6. Policies


Market-based (top-down) OR
Technology-driven (bottom-up)
7. Vision


Low-hanging fruit (energy efficiency, reducing
deforestation) OR
Low-carbon “future technologies”
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Signs of promise
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•
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EU: CC & Energy package
USA: States, Business, Congress, Candidates
G.8/ “Major Economies”: 2050 reduction goal
Developing country plans & programmes
• China, 11th 5-year plan + CC programme
• Mexico, 1st. National CC Strategy => Devt.
Plan
• Brazil, Indonesia: reducing deforestation
• India: CC programme in preparation
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Bali Action Plan
• Inclusive and comprehensive
– Mitigation + Adaptation
– Enabled by Technology + Finance
• Framed by “shared vision”
• Demanding political judgement
– Verifying and comparing national efforts
• Open as to form of “agreed outcome”
• Ambitious (2009 deadline)
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Shared vision …
differentiated future
• Long-term mitigation goal (50:50)
• Low-carbon future: technology, markets and
finance
– 2020 peak with current technologies (efficiency)
– New technologies: market share or shared
remedies? (IPRs)
– Market incentives vital but not enough
– Need for green FDI and more public finance
• Differentiated commitments in common
framework of accountability
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War on two fronts
• Fight both CC and poverty
– Energy access for bottom billion(s)
• Integrate climate change and
sustainable development
– Don’t ignore climate change losers
– Don’t subsidize development winners
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Contacts
• www.unfccc.int
• www.ipcc.ch
• www.cait.wri.org
• http://nsidc.org/index.html
• mzc@waldonet.net.mt
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