9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Effects of IFRS mandatory adoption and country-specific factors on accounting quality: evidence from Italy Paola Paglietti Department of Economics and Business Studies, University of Cagliari Viale S. Ignazio 17, I-09123, Cagliari, Italy Tel.: +39 0706753352 October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 1 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Effects of IFRS mandatory adoption and country-specific factors on accounting quality: evidence from Italy ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of the IFRS mandatory adoption in a typical code-law European country such as Italy. It aims at investigating how and whether the accounting information quality changes following IFRS implementation. The focus is on value relevance which is considered as one of the basic attributes of accounting quality. An empirical analysis is performed on a representative sample of 522 firm-year observations concerning Italian listed companies observed from 2001 to 2006. Data are analyzed by contrasting the pre-adoption period (2001-2004) with the post-adoption one (2005-2006) to test for a systematic change in value relevance induced by IFRS. Likewise, a sectoral analysis is performed to investigate if accounting quality differs with respect to the macro-sector of activity. Results confirm the expected overall increase in the value relevance under IFRS, particularly for firms operating in the Finance and Services sectors. The research also documents changes in Italy’s countryspecific factors in the period surrounding IFRS adoption that may contribute to an improvement in accounting quality. Such a concern is consistent with previous literature supporting the idea that accounting quality does not depend only on the high quality of accounting standards, but it is also a function of the country’s complex institutional setting. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 2 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 INTRODUCTION In 2002, the European Union (EU) Parliament required all companies listed in the EU to adopt the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) for the preparation of their consolidated financial statements, from 1 January 2005 onwards1. The application of IFRS in individual company accounts and in the consolidated accounts of non-listed companies was left as an option to member states. One of IASB’s main goals is to develop a single set of accounting standards that, if followed, require companies to report “high quality, transparent and comparable information in financial statements”2. Evidence of higher accounting quality has been interpreted by Barth et al. (2008) for the IFRS-adopting firms which exhibit less earnings management, more timely loss recognition and more value relevance of earnings, based on a worldwide sample. Such concerns lead to the expectation that the IFRS mandatory adoption in Europe should determine important economic consequences for financial reporting. However, as Ball (2006) points out, in Europe most political and economic influences on financial reporting practice remain local despite the IFRS adoption. Thus, an exogenously imposed set of accounting standards, such as IFRS with their common-law view of financial statement, does not necessarily influence per se financial reporting quality, particularly in countries with a code-law institutional setting. Along the same line, Soderstrom and Sun (2007) claim that cross-country differences in accounting quality are likely to remain after the IFRS implementation because accounting quality is affected by the country’s legal and political system, as well as by the incentives to financial reporting. Taking all these considerations into account the present study focuses on Italy, a European country that has been experiencing the IFRS mandatory adoption. It aims at investigating the effect of the IFRS adoption and the country-specific factors on the accounting information October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 3 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 quality. Since accounting quality is a broad concept with multiple dimensions (Burgstahler et al., 2006), this study focuses on the value relevance which is considered one of the basic attributes of accounting quality (Francis et al., 2004). Value relevance expresses the ability of financial statement information to capture or summarize information that affects share values and it is indicated by the statistical association between accounting information and market prices or returns (Francis and Schipper, 1999, pp. 326-327). By using consolidated financial statement data from a sample of 87 Italian listed companies observed from 2001 to 2006, the value relevance in Italy is investigated to answer the first research question: Does the value relevance of earnings and book value of equity systematically change in Italy with the mandatory adoption of IFRS? For this purpose, the combined, relative and incremental value relevance of book value of equity and earnings with respect to share prices are examined. In addition, the value relevance of earnings levels and earnings changes is investigated for the period 2002-05 using the return regression model. Data are also analyzed on a sectoral basis to answer the second research question: 2) How does the IFRS adoption impact the value relevance in the different sectors? To respond to this the same set of association studies are performed separately for firms operating in the Finance, Industry and Services macro-sectors to study cross-sectional differences in the value relevance. This analysis documents that such a sectoral classification is an important discriminating factor that influences the overall level of accounting information quality. The same conclusion can not be drawn for other factors, like the sign of reported earnings and market capitalization, as documented in a sensitivity test (see section 5.2). Results of the empirical analysis suggest that, in most cases, value relevance increases following the IFRS adoption. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 4 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 The research focuses on Italy because its domestic accounting standards, which have been influenced by a code-law institutional setting, present a large deviation from IFRS. They have been driven by emphasis on the financial statement conformity with tax regulations, conservatism, and broad-stakeholders orientation. Accordingly, it is expected that the adoption of IFRS should be relatively more beneficial for investors. Moreover, differently from most Continental European countries, the Italian legislator required the use of IFRS also in individual accounts of listed companies. Such an extension should strengthen IFRS enforcement by making accounting numbers of consolidated financial statements more reliable for empirical analysis. The country has also been experiencing important changes in its country-specific factors that could contribute in strengthening the IFRS implementation therefore positively influencing the accounting information quality. In particular, it is documented that domestic events that happened just before and along the IFRS implementation are likely to contribute to increase value relevance in Italy in these years (see section 3.2). Prior research reports positive impact of the voluntary IFRS adoption on accounting quality (Soderstrom and Sun, 2007); whereas, little evidence is reported when the adoption is compulsory. This study tries to contribute to the international accounting research focusing on a country experiencing the mandatory adoption of IFRS. Research results may provide insights about properties of IFRS versus national standards in the current EU setting. They may also contribute to the literature examining the quality of IFRS-based accounting amounts. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the prior research. Section 3 documents the transition to IFRS in Italy and discusses the changes in the country-specific factors. Section 4 deals with the research design, the sampling information and the hypothesis October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 5 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 development. Section 5 illustrates the results of both the empirical analysis and of the sensitivity test. The final section presents some concluding remarks. PRIOR RESEARCH A part of the value relevance studies compare the explanatory power of earnings and book value across countries (Ali and Hwang (2000) & Arce and Mora (2002) & Harris et al. (1994) & Joos and Lang (1994) & King and Langli (1998)). They also document the value relevance of accounting numbers in developing countries (Al-Sehali and Spear (2004) & Chen and Wang (2004) & Davies-Friday et al. (2006) & Eccher and Healy (2003) & Prather-Kinsey (2006)) and in transition economies (Gornik-Tomaszewski and Jermakovicz (2001) & Hellström (2006)). This paper takes origin from that stream of research aimed at comparing the value relevance of earnings and book value generated by different sets of accounting standards. Some of the research efforts in this field concern non-US firms listing on New York Stock Exchange (Amir et al. (1993) & Harris and Muller (1999) & Rees and Elgers (1997)). Other more recent studies aim to provide findings which have implications for policymakers on recent moves towards replacing local GAAP with IFRS for non-European countries (Bao and Chow (1999) & El Shami and Al Qenae (2005) & El Shami and Kayed (2005) & Sami and Zhou (2004)). The present study tries to contribute to the international debate about replacing local GAAP with IFRS in Continental Europe. Most of the related literature is concentrated on Germany. Bartov et al. (2005) observe from 1998 to 2000 a sample of 417 firms traded on the German Stock Exchange. They compare the value relevance of earnings produced under three accounting regimes: German GAAP, US-GAAP and IFRS, since firms traded on the German Neuer Markt were required to choose only between US-GAAP and IFRS. Their primary finding is a higher October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 6 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 value relevance for earnings prepared under either IFRS or US-GAAP in comparison to those prepared under German GAAP. These results hold for profit observations only. A comparison between value relevance of earnings produced under US-GAAP and IFRS results in no significant difference. Later on, Hung and Subramanyam (2007) compare the financial statement effects of using IFRS to those using German GAAP for a sample of German companies that elected to adopt IFRS. They also examine these companies’ restatements of prior years accounting numbers in the adoption year. Results show that the adjustments for book value between the two reporting systems are value relevant, but not that for earnings. No difference in value relevance of book value and earnings under IFRS and German GAAP emerges. In addition, total assets and book value are significantly higher under IFRS and there is a higher variability in book value and earnings under IFRS. Finally, they find that IFRS adopters exhibit larger loss provisions. It is not easy to draw reliable conclusions about the effects of IFRS adoption in Germany comparing the results of these two studies, since they reach somewhat conflicting findings. The main reasons are probably attributable to the bias deriving from the analysis of self-selected firms due to the IFRS voluntary adoption phase as well as to a possible sample heterogeneity. Some distinguishing elements of the present study should enforce its results with respect to other similar research. It is well known that by limiting the analysis to a single country it correctly presumes that the pricing process is the same for all the observed firms. From a methodological point of view, this concern would strengthen findings deriving from a single-country analysis (as for example Bartov et al., 2005) over cross-country comparisons (as, for example, Arce and Mora, 2002). Nonetheless, Eccher and Healy (2003) provide evidence that prices may reflect investor clienteles and can differ across firms. Controlling for macro-sectors allows the October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 7 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 investigation of value relevance for firms with similar characteristics and should reduce such a bias. In addition, a representative sample of companies is observed longitudinally in time, so that the analysis is carried out on a sample drawn according to two stratification factors, market capitalization and sector classification, to properly accomplish statistical representation. Only a small proportion of firms originally sampled have been replaced due to particular events (mergers, acquisitions, de-listings, etc.), so that the survivorship bias problem is minimized. Finally, results do not suffer from possible self-selection bias as the study concerns a mandatory adoption of IFRS instead of a voluntary one. THE ITALIAN FRAMEWORK The transition to IFRS in Italy Italy did not take any clear position towards international accounting standards before the Regulation (EC) No. 1606/2002. During the mid-1990s several EU Member States allowed listed companies to prepare their consolidated accounts in accordance with IFRS or US-GAAP instead of national rules to respond to the “demand pull” for international accounting (Van Hulle, 2004, p. 361). The number of companies taking advantage of the new financial reporting rules varied among the countries. Aisbitt (2003) reports 58 companies using IFRS in Germany in 2000, 12 in Austria, 2 in Belgium and Finland, but zero in Italy, France and Luxemburg. Actually, Italy passed a law3 in 1998 allowing listed companies to use “internationally recognized” accounting standards for consolidation, but the implementation decree has never been issued. The main motivation for the lack of interest in international accounting standards is that the Italian economic environment was characterized by extensive corporate ownership concentration, minor importance of the equity market, great importance of long term debts October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 8 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 provided by banks. In this context, accounting practices were mainly aimed to safeguard capital maintenance in the interest of corporate stakeholders, particularly creditors, justifying conservative accounting practices. Also, financial statements served as the base for the computation of income taxes. In contrast, international standards like IFRS are intended to assure fair presentation of the company’s financial position and performance in order to provide decision-useful information to a wide range of users, with particular reference to investors (IASC, 1989, para. 10-12). Only with the EU commitment adoption Italian listed companies started experiencing the use of IFRS. In accordance with the recommendation of the Committee of European Securities Regulation (CESR) dated December 30, 2003, they presented the information required by IFRS 1 in the 2005 quarterly reports to facilitate the transition to the new accounting standards4. In 2005, the government enforced the IFRS implementation options established by the Regulation (EC) No. 1606/2002 by issuing the Legislative Decree No. 38/2005. It prescribes that all listed companies and companies operating in the financial sector such as banks, supervised financial companies and companies issuing financial instruments widely distributed among the public, have to apply IFRS in their consolidated accounts from 2005 onwards and in their individual accounts from 2006 or, optionally, from 2005. In addition, the application of the new standards is also allowed to other non-listed companies; they are free to adopt IFRS for both individual and groups accounts5. Only companies presenting abbreviated accounts are excluded. As for the individual account, IFRS have been authorized to give homogeneity to the financial statements (OIC, 2005). As Haller and Eierle (2004, p. 35) argue, the application of uniform accounting principles and rules for individual and group accounts ease the preparation of group accounts and improve the consistency of the internal management and control system. Indeed, October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 9 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 the decision of making full implementation of IFRS is particularly interesting and unexpected since Italy is characterized by regulatory rigidity and a legalistic outlook. It could be arguable that after a series of company scandals (e.g. Parmalat) some governments may want to distance themselves from accounting standard setting (Sellhorn and Gornik-Tomaszewski, 2006, p. 199). Finally, to guarantee the same treatment to IFRS adoption and non-adoption firms, the Legislative Decree No. 38/2005 modified both the civil and fiscal law. It is worth mentioning that the legislator inserted in the Civil Code a provision prohibiting the distribution of most of the gains derived by fair value measurements. Also, fiscal neutrality of IFRS revaluations that generate net equity increase were established. Country-specific factors affecting the value relevance of accounting information This study supports the idea that ongoing changes in some of Italy’s country-specific factors could affect the degree to which firms comply with IFRS therefore positively influencing the value relevance of accounting information. While cross-country studies quantify the relation between country-specific factors and the value relevance of accounting numbers (e.g. Alford et al. (1993) & Ali and Hwang (2000) & Ball et al. (2000)), studies investigating individual countries describe these factors in a qualitative manner; that is, by indicating whether they increase or decrease the value relevance and under which conditions (Hellström, 2006). This is the case of the present study focusing on six country-specific factors, interacting with each other, suggested by prior research on international differences in financial reporting practice, namely: legal system, financial system, equity market, ownership concentration, auditing and tax system. La Porta et al. (1997) repot that countries with poorer legal protection have smaller and narrower capital markets. In particular, French-civil-law countries have both the weakest investor October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 10 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 protections and the least developed capital markets in comparison to common law countries. These are the characteristics of Italy which is classified by La Porta et al. (1998) as a Frenchcivil-law country with some German influence. Previous studies show that accounting quality is higher in countries with a common law origin and high protection of shareholders rights (e.g. Ali and Hwang (2000) & Ball et al. (2000) & Leuz et al. (2003)). In this respect, the legal system in Italy is expected to negatively affect value relevance. As to the main sources for corporate funding, Italy has been classified as a bank-oriented country (Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2001). The literature (Berglof, 1990) defines the bank-oriented financial system as characterized by close links between firms and banks, which supply most of their capital needs. Banks are the principal financing agent and also play an important role as shareholders. Actually, Italian banks do not have a large share in companies ownership but, being the companies main capital suppliers they have easy access to firms’ financial information6. Thus, the demand for published financial information reduces. This feature of the Italian financial system can negatively affect value relevance. Ali and Hwang (2000) find that value relevance is lower for countries with bank-oriented financial systems as opposed to market-oriented ones. Despite probable limitations on value relevance related to the legal and financial systems, benefits could derive from some events which are starting to change the Italian economic scenario. The recent and ongoing development of the Italian equity market is expected to positively affect value relevance. The demand for accounting information from market participants provides incentives for firm managers to increase the quality of financial reporting so to facilitate current and potential shareholders’ investment decisions. This effect is supported by Nobes’s (1998) suggestion that, unless a country is culturally dominated by another, its October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 11 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 financial system is the main driver of its financial reporting practices. Table 1 documents the growth of the Italian Stock Exchange during the last six years in terms of number of traded shares (deriving also from IPOs and takeover bids), market capitalization, trading activity, and so on. This sizable enlargement is also attributable to the broad privatization process. The country experienced public offerings for about 125 million Euro, that was the second one among OCSE countries and the first one in Europe. Aganin and Volpin (2003) reported that the stock market capitalization grew to 70 percent of the gross national product in 2000 (in the 1980s it was lower than 8%) and that this increase was largely due to the listing of large corporations. Strikingly, this development of the stock market is not supported by foreign investment. Tyrral et al. (2007, p. 92) argue that IFRS are supposed to provide greater transparency in financial statements, which should attract increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This presumption is not supported by evidence in Italy, where there is no consistent increase in inward FDI during the recent years whereas outward FDI increases, as documented in Table 1. The reduced-size of the Italian equity market is historically associated with a lowly diffused ownership structure (La Porta et al., 1998) which has probably generated a weak demand for financial reporting. The ownership and control structure of Italian listed companies presents a high level of concentration and a limited number of shareholders, linked by either family ties or agreements of a contractual nature (i.e. shareholders’ agreements), who are willing and able to wield power over the corporation (Melis, 2005, p. 479). Nevertheless, recent figures (Table 1) highlight that the concentration of shares owned by the largest shareholder decreases from 2001 (42.2%) to 2006 (27.5%) and, consequently, the same percentages concerning the other majority shareholders and the market increase from 9.2% to 15.2% and from 48.6% to 57.3% respectively. This change is supposed to positively influence value relevance since it implies that October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 12 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 a growing number of investors are likely to increase the demand for high quality accounting information, forcing companies in this way to appropriately apply IFRS. Such an increase in the percentage of shares owned by the market has probably also been favoured by the Italian government’s efforts towards the improvement of the minority shareholders’ protection. It led to the introduction in 1998 of the “Draghi reform” and the reform of the governing saving in 2005 (Law No 262/2005). Along the same line, the Italian Stock Exchange introduced in 1999 the “Preda code”, a code of ethics aimed at promoting better corporate governance practices for listening firms. The auditing service is an important enforcement mechanism affecting the quality of accounting information. Francis and Wang (2006) document that earnings quality increases for firms with Big 4 auditors7, based on an international broad sample. They also report the market share of the Big 4 auditors in Italy is 93%. This is the highest percentage in Europe and would positively affect the statistical association between stock prices and accounting numbers. Nevertheless, Italy is the only European country to have made auditor rotation compulsory. The “Draghi reform” requires that the auditing firm in Italy is appointed for three years by the shareholders’ meeting following the favourable opinion of the board of statutory auditors. After three appointments (i.e. nine years) the law requires the company to rotate its lead audit firm. It is not clear how this mandatory rotation could affect the value relevance of accounting information: a Bocconi University report (SDA Bocconi, 2002) highlights that audit firm rotation is detrimental to audit quality but has a positive effect on improving public confidence in the corporate sector. It concludes that auditor rotation produces a negative net effect on the shareholder’s value. Finally, the divergence between financial and tax accounting in Italy is supposed to positively influence value relevance. The literature supports this conjecture with some empirical evidence October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 13 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 (Ali and Hwang (2000) & Joos and Lang (1994)). The strong relationships between accounting and taxation in Italy were reduced introducing the Legislative Decree No. 6/2003. It eliminated the commercial rule allowing fiscal items in the accounts with related disclosure in the notes. Also, the Legislative Decree No. 344/2003 eliminated the compulsory inclusion of some expenses in the income statement in order to obtain their deduction from tax accounts. These expenses can now be directly deducted from the annual tax return. Summarizing, Italy has been experiencing several structural changes affecting its countryspecific factors that can influence the IFRS adoption effectiveness with respect to the value relevance of accounting information. In particular, the recent growth of the equity market generated by internal factors (privatizations, IPOs, etc.), the recent decrease in the ownership concentration, the Big 4 auditing concentration and the divergence between financial and tax accounting are all factors that should favour an increase in the statistical association between IFRS accounting information and stock prices. RESEARCH DESIGN Sample selection The empirical analysis is carried out on a sample of 522 firm-year observations concerning a cohort of 87 Italian companies trading their common shares on the Milan Stock Exchange (MSE) from 2001-2006. Data of published consolidated financial statements as well as market share prices for the period 2001-2006 were collected from the MSE website (www.borsaitalia.it). All the accounting data expressed in Euro were submitted in accordance with I-GAAP8 up to 2004 and in accordance with IFRS from 2005 onwards. Among the 522 firm-year observations, October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 14 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 348 derive from I-GAAP financial statements and 174 from IFRS ones. Market share prices are referred to the end of the first four-month period. A stratified sampling scheme is used to accomplish statistical representation with respect to the macro sectors of activity (Finance, Industry and Services)9 and the market capitalization. A company is selected if, following its inclusion in the sample: a) the sampling weight of its macro-sector does not exceed that of the corresponding macro-sector of the population for more than 1.50% (see Table 2); b) the null hypothesis of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test comparing the empirical distribution of the macro-sector market capitalization within the sample with that characterizing the population is not rejected10 (see Figure 1). In order to preserve homogeneity of the sample along time, accounting data concerning the set of selected firms were collected for the years from 2001 to 2006. Since sampling was performed during the first half of 2005, a small number of replacements have been made in the sample since accounting data for some companies were no longer available because of mergers and acquisitions. Companies of the same magnitude (in terms of net equity) and operating in the same macro-sector of the replaced ones were selected11. Table 3 presents descriptive statistics and correlations for the sampling observations. Results reveal that earnings and book value are positively correlated with price and with each other over the entire period and that the correlation among the three variables increases after the adoption of IFRS. It is worth noticing that this increase is particularly large for the correlations between earnings and the other two variables. Hypothesis development This study investigates the value relevance of I-GAAP and IFRS book value and earnings assuming that IFRS produce higher quality accounting information for investors in comparison October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 15 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 to I-GAAP. This assumption derives from the different approach to the financial statement used by these two accounting regimes. Particularly, IFRS interpret the financial statement in a perspective way: the use of fair value measurements should reveal better the present company economic state and its future performances. As Barth et al. (2008, p. 5) argue, accounting amounts that reflect better a firm’s underlying economics provide investors with information to aid them in making decisions. In this respect, IFRS can be considered more investor-oriented. On the contrary, I-GAAP are primarily oriented towards stakeholders, with special attention to creditors. Thus, they tend to prefer conservative accounting practices in order to preserve capital maintenance during the time. These considerations introduce the first research question: Does the value relevance of earnings and book value systematically change in Italy with the mandatory adoption of IFRS? To answer this question the combined, relative and incremental value relevance analysis are carried out using price and return regression models. The first expected result is that the combined value relevance of book value and earnings is higher under IFRS. To assess this result, the Ohlson (1995) model assuming a linear relationship between price, book value per share and earnings per share is used (see Easton et al., 1993). The resulting price-levels regression is as follows: Pit 0 1BVit 2 Eit it where: Pit is the price of a share for firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; BVit is the book value per share of firm i at the end of the year t12; Eit is the earnings per share for firm i for time period t-1 to t; εit is the other value-relevant information of firm i for year t orthogonal to Eit and BVit. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 16 (1) 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 The second expected result is that the increase in the relative value relevance of earnings following the transition to IFRS is higher than the increase in the relative value relevance of book value. This is because under IFRS earnings should be more informative (Ball, 2006) and thus should be able to describe better firms underlying economics. To determine the explanatory power that Eit and BVit have for prices individually, equation (1) can be split into two models in order to consider the relative value relevance of BVit and Eit respectively13: Pit 0 1BVit it (2) Pit 0 1Eit it (3) The relative value relevance of Eit and BVit is measured by the adjusted R2’s of the corresponding models (2) and (3). Comparing the value of adjusted R2 deriving from model (2) with that of model (3), it is possible to understand if BVit is more value relevant than Eit, or vice versa. Following similar approaches (see, for example, Arce and Mora, 2002), this study applies the Vuong test14 to evaluate the magnitude of the differences between these adjusted R2s. The empirical analysis also investigates if book value and earnings provide different additional information to investors by measuring their incremental explanatory power. Denoting the adjusted R2s coefficients from equations (1) to (3) as R21 , R22 and R23 respectively, the total explanatory power of the model (1) is decomposed into three parts: i) the incremental 2 explanatory power of book value: RBV R21 R23 ; ii) the incremental explanatory power of earnings: RE2 R21 R22 ; iii) the explanatory power common to both earnings and book value: October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 17 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 2 RC2 R21 RBV RE2 15. The third expected result is that, under IFRS, the incremental value relevance of earnings increases whereas that of book value decreases. Furthermore, the research considers the strength of the relationship between earnings and stock returns as a proxy for value relevance. To evaluate whether the ability of earnings levels and earnings changes in explaining stock returns improves under IFRS (fourth expected result), the return regression model proposed by Easton and Harris (1991) is considered: Rit 0 1 Eit Pit 1 2 Eit Pit 1 it (4) where: Rit is the dividend adjusted stock market return of firm i four months after the fiscal yearend t; Eit / Pit-1 is the earnings per share of year t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscal-year end t-1; ∆Eit / Pit-1 is the change in the earnings per share from years t-1 to t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscal-year end t-1. The value relevance of both earnings and the deflated change in the earnings are measured by the adjusted R2 of model (4). Again, following the R 2 decomposition introduced for model (1), incremental value relevance of Eit / Pit-1 and ∆Eit / Pit-1 can be measured in the same way decomposing the R 2 of model (4). Generally, model (4) is considered to be less sensitive to scale effects compared to model (1) 16. When estimating price and return regression models, pooled data of the pre-adoption period (2001-2004) are contrasted with those of the post-adoption one (2005-2006). In this respect, the Chow (1960) test17 is used to examine for differences in the value relevance in the two periods. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 18 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 This test is applied to compare regression results obtained from models (1) to (4). In addition, to enforce the idea that changes in value relevance are systematic and do not depend on a particular year, the association between accounting numbers and stock market data is preliminarily measured on a yearly basis. Finally, this study assumes that the magnitude of the increase in the value relevance of accounting information following the IFRS adoption could vary with respect to the activity sector. Thus, the second research question is: How does the IFRS adoption impact the value relevance in the different sectors? A sectoral analysis is carried out to investigate how value relevance changes in the three different macro-sectors (Finance, Industry and Services) from the pre-adoption period to the post-adoption one. Models (1) to (4) are applied separately for each macro-sector and for the two different periods. Previous studies (Barth, 1994 & Barth et al. (1996) & Eccher et al. (1996)) document that fair value disclosure made by banks are value relevant and that banks’ shareholders value this information. In view of that, the fifth expected result is that value relevance increases particularly in the Finance sector. EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND INFERENCES Value relevance of earnings and book value under IFRS and I-GAAP This section summarizes the results obtained when applying models (1) to (4) to the observed sample of Italian firms in order to evaluate the value relevance of earnings and book value during the period 2001-06. When estimating each model, data have been winsorized to the 5% level to mitigate the effect of outliers. Despite the outlier elimination, the number of observations used to estimate each model does not violate any of the criteria proposed in the literature for determining the minimum sample size required to conduct a multiple regression analysis (see, among others, October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 19 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Algina et al. (2002) & Cohen and Cohen (1983) & Green (1991) & Nunnally and Bernstein (1994)). In addition, consistent with prior research (such as Collins et al.,1997), firms with negative book value (under either I-GAAP or IFRS) are deleted. Yearly regressions Table 4 reports the results of the models applied on annual data, distinguishing those deriving from price regressions (i.e., models (1) to (3), Panel A) from those deriving from return regressions (i.e., model (4), Panel B). Model (1) provides a measurement of the combined value relevance. Its estimated coefficients and adjusted R2s are reported in the first block of Table 4. Results provide evidence of the expected changes in the relevance of accounting information for the Italian listed companies. The R21 coefficient reaches its maximum value (0.70) in 2006 and the estimated coefficients obtained in 2005 and 2006 under IFRS differ from the corresponding ones obtained in previous years under I-GAAP. Overall, these models seem to provide evidence about the occurrence of the first expected result: the combined value relevance of book value and earnings is higher under IFRS. The second block of Table 4 shows the results of the relative value relevance measured by models (2) and (3). BVit explains 44% of the market price changes in 2005. This value is not so different compared to previous years. The predictive ability of BVit increases to 66% in 2006. Thus, it seems that the IFRS adoption leaves the relative value relevance of BVit unchanged in 2005 and causes an increase starting from 2006. Instead, Eit alone explains 62% of market price changes in 2005 and 58% in 2006. These figures highlight a consistent increase in the relative value relevance of Eit compared to the I-GAAP period. These findings lead to the second October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 20 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 expected result: the increase in the relative value relevance of earnings following the transition to IFRS is higher than that of book value. In each year, a comparison of the relative value relevance of Eit and BVit is made by means of the R2s as well as of the Vuong test. In 2005, the Vuong-Z statistic is significantly negative, indicating that Eit is relatively more relevant than BVit. In previous years the evidence is exactly the opposite: the Z-statistic is always positive, confirming the superiority of BVit in terms of relative value relevance under I-GAAP, even if only in 2003 this value is significant at conventional levels (0 ≤ p ≤ 1%). These results show that BVit is relatively more relevant than Eit under I-GAAP but not under IFRS, whereas a clear superiority of Eit over BVit can not be found under IFRS. 2 As for the incremental value relevance, values of RBV and RE2 reported in the last two columns of Table 4 seem to partially confirm the third expected result. The incremental value relevance of 2 book value reduces when moving from I-GAAP to IFRS: values of RBV in 2005 and 2006 are considerably low if compared to those of the period 2001-2004. Whereas, the incremental value relevance of earnings increases to 0.18 in 2005, but in 2006 it does not differ so much compared 2 to previous years. This issue would require further investigation, although the decrease of RBV under IFRS suggests a reduction of the incremental information provided to investors by the balance sheet. Panel B of Table 4 reports the results of the return regression. Available data allows I-GAAP accounting numbers to be used to estimate models from 2002 to 2004 and IFRS ones for the period 2005-200618. Results show that the adjusted R2 of model (4) reaches its maximum value in 2006 (0.13). This analysis is in line with the expectation that value relevance of both earnings levels and earnings changes increases under IFRS (fourth expected result) and suggests that earnings levels play a prominent role in explaining stock returns. Under I-GAAP, the regression October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 21 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 coefficients are often not significant. Despite the fact that the goodness of fit of return regression models is considerably lower than the one provided by price regression ones, these results can be considered as consistent with previous literature19. Pooled regressions Table 5 shows a comparison among the results of the models (1) to (4) for the I-GAAP data (2001-2004) and for the IFRS data (2005-2006). Price regression results in Panel A suggest that IFRS adoption increases the combined and the relative value relevance of accounting information, since R21 , R22 and R23 under IFRS are higher than those under I-GAAP. These findings enforces the conclusions drawn from yearly regressions and confirms the prediction that the IFRS adoption causes an increase in the combined value relevance and that the increase in the relative value relevance is more pronounced for earnings (from 11% to 63%) than for book value (from 39% to 49%). Nevertheless, comparing the results of models (2) and (3) in each period, adjusted R2s and the Vuong test definitively indicate that Eit (BVit) is relatively more relevant that BVit (Eit) under IFRS (I-GAAP). The increase in the incremental value relevance of earnings that partially emerged from yearly regressions is definitively confirmed in the pooled ones: results show that the incremental contribution to equity valuation of Eit (measured by RE2 ) increases from 2% to 2 16%, whereas that of BVit (measured by RBV ) even decreases to 3% from 31%. This would mean that income statement information is starting to gain importance for investors’ valuation mechanisms and that firms profitability is influencing investment decisions. The Chow tests always reject the null hypothesis of no difference in value relevance between the pre-adoption and the post-adoption periods. Overall, these findings suggest that the IFRS adoption induces October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 22 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 systematic differences in the value relevance of accounting information in the post-adoption period compared to the pre-adoption one. Return regression outcomes on pooled data are reported in Panel B. They confirm the increase of the statistical association between earnings and stock returns in the post-adoption period with respect to the pre-adoption one, although such an increase is moderate (from 4% to 7%). Under IFRS, earnings changes seem to be more relevant than under I-GAAP. Their incremental value relevance equals 3% in the post-adoption period, being very close to that of earnings levels (4%). Sectoral analysis Table 6 reports the results of the pooled (price and return) regressions for the Finance, Industry and Services sectors respectively. The Finance sector includes insurance and banking companies as well as financial holdings, real estate agencies and other financial services firms. For this set of companies, price regression results (Panel A) highlight that the combined value relevance increases consistently ( R21 increases to .88 from .56) as well as the relative value relevance of Eit ( R23 increases to .88 from .53); the increase in the relative value relevance of BVit is less marked ( R22 increases to .49 from .39). It is worth noticing that this sector is always characterized by a higher relative value relevance of Eit in comparison to that of BVit. Under IFRS, the significance of the Vuong’s Z-statistics provides strong evidence of this superiority. The latter is also confirmed by the incremental value relevance: the contribution provided to equity valuation by Eit increases 2 consistently under IFRS ( RE2 increases to .39 from .17) whereas it reduces to zero for BVit ( RBV decreases to zero from .04). Thus, financial companies clearly show that income statement accounting information is more relevant for investors than that of the balance sheet. The IFRS October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 23 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 adoption further intensifies this superiority, probably because financial companies make extensive use of fair value measurements. Different conclusions can be drawn for the Industry sector. It includes companies operating in several homogeneous domains20. In this sector, the combined value relevance does not differ too much when moving to IFRS from I-GAAP but changes are detectable in the relative value relevance. Under I-GAAP, BVit is relatively more value relevant than Eit, as showed by the value of the Vuong’s Z-statistic. This result probably depends on conservative practices and income smoothing. Rather, under IFRS the superiority of BVit over Eit is not so marked, as the relative value relevance of Eit increases considerably with the transition to IFRS ( R23 increases to .49 from .06) whereas that of BVit is unchanged. Incremental value relevance results coherently show that BVit provides consistent additional information to equity valuation under I-GAAP, but not 2 under IFRS ( RBV decreases to .09 from .48). The Services sector is the less homogeneous one. It includes companies operating in the retailing and publishing activities, utilities, transport and tourism as well as diversified services. As the Finance sector, services companies experience a consistent increase in the combined value relevance in the post-adoption period, together with an increase in the relative and incremental value relevance of Eit. Somewhat surprisingly, the relative value relevance of BVit decreases. Finally, the empirical analysis investigates if the value relevance of earnings levels and earnings changes is sensitive to the activity sector (Panel B). The results are in line with the conclusions drawn from the price regression models. IFRS adoption increases the value relevance of earnings, particularly for the Finance and Services sectors, whose companies are probably the major fair value users. Most of the total variation of returns in the Services sector is explained by earnings levels. Whereas, earnings changes seem to play a role in the Finance sector, probably October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 24 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 because in this sector earnings are most sensitive to the changes induced by the first use of IFRS fair value accounting. Overall, the results of the sectoral analysis indicate that IFRS adoption differently impact value relevance in the three sectors, justifying the second research question. Moreover, the higher increase in value relevance for financial companies confirms the fifth expected result: accounting information provided by these companies is particularly relevant and informative for investors. Instead, the lower increase of value relevance in the Industry sector probably depends on the survival of conservative practices that reduce the effectiveness of the IFRS implementation towards the disclosure of more useful information for investors. Sensitivity analysis This section presents a sensitivity test carried out to check for the presence of omitted important variables. In particular, the proposed regression models do not consider the effect of the market capitalization and the sign of reported earnings on the value relevance of accounting information. Instead, the macro sector of activity is explicitly considered by partitioning the sample into three disjoint sub-samples and by running separate regressions. In this respect, the aim of the sensitivity test is twofold: it checks for the presence of other (omitted) influential variables and it controls for the appropriateness of the sectoral analysis and of its reported findings. The sensitivity test considers the residuals of model (1) and tests whether there are other excluded variables that have some predictive ability as well as verifying whether the macrosector effectively has a different influence on the value relevance in the pre-adoption period and in the post-adoption one. With this aim, the following regression model is considered: October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 25 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 log uit 1Mcapit 2 Finit 3 Indit 4 Servit 5 Sign.Eit it (5) where log(|uit|) is the natural logarithm of the absolute value of the residuals21 of model (1) for the firm i at time t; Mcapit is the market capitalization of firm i at the end of the year t; Finit, Indit and Servit are dummy variables indicating if the firm i at time t belongs to the Finance, the Industry or the Services sector, respectively. Sign.Eit is another dummy variable indicating if the firm i at time t reported a positive earnings or not. This model assumes that, the larger (and more significant) the regression coefficient associated to a specific predictor is, the larger the explanatory power of the predictor itself in model (1) is. Estimated regression coefficients are reported in Table 7, distinguishing also in this case the results of the pre-adoption period from those of the post-adoption one. For both periods the coefficients associated to Mcapit ( ˆ1 ) are close to zero and not significant. The same result holds for Sign.Eit observing the value of the coefficient ˆ5 . This would mean these two factors have no influence on the degree of value relevance of the Italian listed firms. Instead, values of the coefficients associated to the macro-sectors ( ˆ2 to ˆ4 ) enforce the results presented in the previous section, where it is demonstrated that IFRS adoption particularly increases the value relevance of accounting information in the Finance and Services sectors. CONCLUDING REMARKS Following the recent IFRS mandatory adoption in Europe, this paper studies the consequences of the IFRS-based financial statement presentation on the value relevance of accounting information in Italy. Understanding the implication of IFRS adoption is an urgent need for managers, investors and regulators, particularly in European countries with a predominant code- October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 26 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 law institutional structures, since IFRS derive from a common-law view of financial reporting. The aim of this research is to investigate how the mandatory adoption of IFRS has impacted the value relevance of book value of equity and earnings, and to assess whether it increases the quality of accounting information for investors. At the same time, since political and economic forces profoundly affect reporting practice (Ball et al., 2003, p. 236), changes in the countryspecific factors that may favour the effectiveness of the IFRS implementation are also considered. Research results are coherent with the expectations. Price regression outcomes show that book value of equity and earnings under IFRS are jointly and systematically more value relevant than the corresponding I-GAAP amounts. In addition, it emerges that earnings increase their relative value relevance more than book value of equity when moving to IFRS, despite higher relative value relevance of book value of equity under I-GAAP. Return regression results also point out that earnings levels and earnings changes increase their explanatory power during the IFRS adoption period. Finally, the sectoral analysis highlights that IFRS adoption particularly increases the value relevance for financial companies, and that firms operating in the Services sector also experience a consistent increase in the quality of accounting information. On the contrary, value relevance seems to remain almost unchanged for the Industry sector firms. The sectoral analysis results suggest that, in each macro-sector, companies have probably been experiencing a different degree of implementation of IFRS. Perhaps, financial reporting practice in Industrial companies still remains rather conservative. Nevertheless, as reported in literature, accounting quality does not solely depend on the high quality of accounting standards. It is also a function of firms’ reporting incentives created by market and political factors. In view of that, it was straightforward to consider that some recent October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 27 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 changes in Italy’s country-specific factors could have favoured the effectiveness of the IFRS adoption, therefore positively influencing accounting quality. Particularly, this study has documented that the recent growth of the equity market, the ongoing company privatization process, the decrease in ownership concentration as well as the divergence between accounting and taxation are all factors that might have contributed to the increase in the value relevance of accounting information in Italy. This paper has tried to continue the research in the area of adopting IFRS. Of course, it is not possible to draw definitive inferences from the results of this study since IFRS are observable only for two years. However, the empirical analysis shows solid concerns in favour of the future consolidation of these results that, as previously discussed, will also depend on the full coordination between financial reporting practice and regulatory environment. Notes 1 Regulation (EC) No. 1606/2002. Hereinafter, the term “IFRS” is used to refer to both the accounting standards issued by the IASB and the International Accounting Standards (IAS), issued by the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC), which was the IASB’s predecessor. 2 IASC Foundation Constitution, Part A, para. 2. Available at: www.iasb.org/About+Us/About+the+Foundation/Constitution.htm. 3 Legislative Decree No. 58/1998, also known as “Draghi reform”. 4 In particular, they re-presented in one of the 2005 quarterly reports the balance sheet dated January 1, 2004 as well as both the balance sheet and the income statement dated December 31, 2004 according to IFRS. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 28 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics 5 ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 IFRS are voluntary from 2005 onwards for the companies belonging to IFRS compliant groups and for those that prepare consolidated accounts. For the individual accounts of the other companies the government will communicate the term for using the new standards. 6 Bianchi and Bianco (2007, p. 19) document that the weighted average share of banks in Italian listed companies is 4.7% in 2006, whereas it is 6.1% in Germany and 9.6% in Spain. 7 Deloitte & Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG and Price Waterhouse Coopers. 8 The term “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” (GAAP) is not formally defined in Italy. Nevertheless, the term “Italian GAAP” is used throughout the paper and abbreviated with the acronym I-GAAP to simplify terminology. 9 Italian listed firms are classified by the company managing the MSE trading activity (Borsa Italiana S.p.a.) into three macro sectors: Industry, Services and Finance; each of them is further classified into some activity sectors. 10 For details about the “two sample” Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test see, among others, Kendall and Stuart (1979). 11 The percentage of replaced firm-year observations is 3.64% (19 replacements over the 522 firm-year observations). 12 The book value per share has been adjusted by subtracting the earnings per share, in order to avoid possible multicollinearity problems since the year-end book value contains the same period’s earnings. 13 This decomposition has been derived theoretically by Theil (1971) and has been used in many papers. See, among others, Arce and Mora (2002) & Collins et al. (1997). 14 This test is described in Vuong (1989), and is based on a likelihood ratio testing whether the residual variances of both models are equal. The test statistic is standard normally distributed. Its October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 29 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 positive value indicates the performance of model (2) is superior to that of model (3) (i.e., BVit is relatively more value relevant than Eit ), and vice versa. 15 The same approach to incremental value relevance analysis has been used by Arce and Mora (2002), Collins et al. (1997), Francis and Schipper (1999) and King and Langli (1998). 16 Basically, the use of the return regression model within the empirical analysis is made to take into account the so called “scale effect” problem typically affecting price-levels regression. See Easton (1998, p. 238) for details. 17 The Chow test is an econometric test of whether the coefficients in two linear regressions on different data are equal. 18 To evaluate the earnings change from 2004 to 2005, the restatements of the 2004 income statements presented in the 2005 quarterly reports are considered. 19 Harris et al. (1994), Joos and Lang (1994), Ball et al. (2000), among others, show that the explanatory power of the return regression is substantially lower than that of the price levels. 20 These are Food, Automobile, Papers, Chemicals, Housing, Household and Electronic Appliance, Plant & Machinery, Diversified Industrials, Mining, Metallurgic, Oils, Textiles, Clothing and Accessories. 21 This logarithmic transformation of the residuals of model (1) is performed in order to make their distribution more symmetrical and closer to the Gaussian one. 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October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 38 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 1: The evolution of equity market, ownership concentration and foreign direct investment in Italy during the period 2001-2006. Year Equity market1 N. Listed companies N. IPO N. Takeover bids Market Capitalization (% GDP) Market Capitalization (€ mil.) Overall trading activity (€ mil.) Average daily trading activity (€ mil.) Turnover velocity Foreign Direct Investment2 FDI flows inward (€ mil.) FDI flows outward (€ mil.) Ownership Concentration3 % shares owned by the largest shareholder % shares owned by other majority shareholders % shares owned by market 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 294 295 279 278 282 311 18 14 10 10 19 46 20 22 32 19 23 15 47.4 35.4 36.5 41.8 47.7 52.8 592,319 457,992 487,446 580,881 676,606 778,501 658,042 633,659 679,017 732,592 954,796 1,145,650 2,611 93.3 2,515 120.7 2,695 143.6 2,851 137.1 3,730 151.9 4,510 157.5 11,037 15,926 10,854 12,778 12,250 6,769 12,549 14,375 14,904 29,605 12,996 31,185 42.2 40.7 33.5 32.7 28.6 27.5 9.2 48.6 8.0 51.2 11.6 54.9 13.0 54.3 15.5 55.9 15.2 57.3 Source: Italian Stock Exchange – Borsa Italiana (2007) Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development – UNCTAD (2006). The data cover all types of financial flows affecting equity capital, namely, listed voting stocks (shares), unlisted voting stocks, other nonvoting stocks (including preferred shares), and non-cash acquisitions of equity, such as through the provision of capital equipment. They also include bonds and money market instruments, loans, financial leases and trade credits as well as the purchase and sale of land and buildings in Italy /abroad by non-resident/resident enterprises and individuals. 3 Source: Italian Stock Exchange Security and Exchange Commission – CONSOB: Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (2006). 1 2 October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 39 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 2: Distribution of the firms included in the sample and in the entire set of Italian listed companies, with respect to the main sectors and activity sectors. N. of N. of Population Sampling Weights Activity Sector listed sample weights weights difference firms firms Food 9 4.02% 3 3.45% -0.57% Automobile 7 3.13% 3 3.45% 0.32% Papers 1 0.45% 0 0.00% -0.45% Chemicals 15 6.70% 6 6.90% 0.20% Housing 10 4.46% 4 4.60% 0.13% Household/Electronic Appliance 25 11.16% 9 10.34% -0.82% Plant/Machinery 9 4.02% 3 3.45% -0.57% Diversified Industrials 3 1.34% 1 1.15% -0.19% Mining/Metallurgic/Oils 4 1.79% 2 2.30% 0.51% Textiles/Clothing/Accessories 18 8.04% 7 8.05% 0.01% Industry 101 45.09% 38 43.68% -1.41% Insurance 11 4.91% 4 4.60% -0.31% Banks 30 13.39% 12 13.79% 0.40% Financial Holdings 17 7.59% 7 8.05% 0.46% Diversified financials 1 0.45% 0 0.00% -0.45% Real Estate 12 5.36% 5 5.75% 0.39% Financial Services 3 1.34% 1 1.15% -0.19% Finance 74 33.04% 29 33.33% 0.30% Retailing 2 0.89% 1 1.15% 0.26% Publishing 15 6.70% 6 6.90% 0.20% Diversified Services 2 0.89% 1 1.15% 0.26% Utilities 17 7.59% 7 8.05% 0.46% Transport/Tourism 13 5.80% 5 5.75% -0.06% Services 49 21.88% 20 22.99% 1.11% Main Sector Total 224 October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 40 100% 87 100% 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 0.20 0.15 0.05 0.05 4 6 8 10 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 0.10 Density 0.15 Density 0.10 0.10 0.05 Density 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.20 POPULATION 0 2 4 N = 71 Bandw idth = 0.6658 FINANCE 6 8 10 12 2 4 N = 91 Bandw idth = 0.5043 INDUSTRY 6 8 10 12 N = 49 Bandw idth = 0.7193 SERVICES 4 6 8 10 N = 29 Bandw idth = 0.779 FINANCE 12 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 0.10 Density 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.10 Density 0.10 0.05 Density 0.15 0.20 0.20 SAMPLE 0 2 4 6 8 10 N = 38 Bandw idth = 0.8068 INDUSTRY 12 14 2 4 6 8 10 12 N = 20 Bandw idth = 0.8308 SERVICES Figure 1: Empirical distribution functions of logarithms of the 2004 market capitalization in the three main sectors for the entire set of Italian listed companies (Population, top panel) and for the companies included in the sample (bottom panel). October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 41 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 3: Descriptive statistics and correlation among variables1. Panel A: descriptive statistics and correlation matrix for the period (2001-2006) Descriptive Statistics Median Standard deviation 4.98 10.29 2.52 4.48 0.22 0.74 Variable Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Mean 8.64 4.26 0.39 Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Correlation matrix Price (P) Book Value (BV) 1.000 0.646 1.000 0.550 0.445 Min. 0.08 0.01 -2.43 Max. 69.07 23.40 3.74 Earnings (E) 1.000 Panel B: descriptive statistics and correlation matrix for the period (2001-2004) Descriptive Statistics Median Standard deviation 4.30 7.22 4.24 3.91 0.18 0.69 Variable Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Mean 7.47 2.44 0.29 Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Correlation matrix Price (P) Book Value (BV) 1.000 0.630 1.000 0.334 0.284 Min. 0.11 0.29 -2.43 Max. 55.00 22.38 3.03 Earnings (E) 1.000 Panel C: descriptive statistics and correlation matrix for the period (2005-2006) Descriptive Statistics Median Standard deviation 6.68 11.62 4.28 4.81 0.32 0.75 Variable Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Mean 11.05 2.58 0.59 Price (P) Book Value (BV) Earnings (E) Correlation matrix Price (P) Book Value (BV) 1.000 0.704 1.000 0.794 0.743 1 Min. 0.08 0.01 -0.90 Max. 69.07 23.40 3.74 Earnings (E) 1.000 The number of firm-year observations with necessary data is 522. The period of study covers the years 2001–2006. P is the price per share of firm i at the end of year t, E is the earnings per share of firm i for year t, and BV is the book value per share of firm i at year end t. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 42 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 4: Yearly regression results1 Panel A: Price regression models2 Models: (1) Pit 0 1BVit 2 Eit it ; (2) Pit 0 1BVit it ; (3) Pit 0 1Eit it Vuong’s R21 R22 R23 ̂ 2 ̂1 Z ̂1 ˆ1 Year N statistic 2001 1.04 4.34 1.22 6.76 77 5.70 .36 .20 .85 *** 3.22*** .43 6.74*** 4.45*** I-GAAP 2002 1.04 4.37 1.30 7.08 76 5.08 .35 .24 .98 *** 3.23*** .42 6.51*** 4.93*** I-GAAP 2003 I-GAAP 2004 I-GAAP 2005 IFRS 2006 IFRS 77 77 77 73 1.09 8.98*** 1.18 5.15*** .28 1.10 1.86 5.62*** 3.07 4.28*** 2.64 1.47 11.52 6.03*** 5.16 3.27*** .58 .41 .62 .70 1.14 8.57*** 1.37 7.13*** 1.47 7.81*** 2.70 11.99*** .48 .40 .44 .66 3.76 3.68*** 7.77 4.51*** 13.16 11.15*** 12.00 9.99*** 2 RBV RE2 .24 .07 .19 .07 .14 2.32*** .44 .10 .20 1.32* .20 .01 .62 -1.88** .00 .18 .58 1.01 .13 .04 Panel B: Return regression models3 Model: (4) Rit 0 1 Eit Pit 1 2 Eit Pit 1 it Year N 2002 I-GAAP 75 2003 I-GAAP 75 2004I-GAAP 81 2005 IFRS 82 2006 IFRS 76 ˆ1 ˆ2 .372 3.37*** .014 1.17 -.001 -2.46** .224 2.79*** -.133 -3.13*** .006 .72 -.000 -.59 .002 1.30 .007 2.22** -.006 -.94 R2 R 2 due to ˆ1 R 2 due to ˆ2 .11 .12 -.01 .00 .01 -.01 .06 .05 .01 .11 .07 .04 .13 .10 .00 1 N is the number of observations used to estimate each model. The first number in each cell reports the regression coefficient, whereas the second is the value of the t-statistic to test whether the regression coefficient is equal to zero. The symbols *, **, *** indicate the statistical significance of the test at 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. 2 Pit is the price of a share for firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; BVit is the book value per share of firm i at the end of the year t; Eit denotes the earnings per share for firm i for time period t-1 to t. ̂1 , ̂ 2 , ̂1 and ˆ1 are the 2 estimated regression coefficients. R21 , R21 and R21 are the adjusted R2’s. RBV R21 R23 and RE2 R21 R22 measure the incremental value relevance of BV and E respectively. 3 Rit is the dividend adjusted stock market return of firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; Eit / Pit-1 is the earnings per share of year t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscalyear end t-1; ΔEit / Pit-1 is the change in the earnings per share from years t-1 to t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscal-year end t-1. ˆ1 and ˆ2 are the estimated regression coefficients. R 2 is the adjusted R2 of model (4). October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 43 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 5: Pooled regression results1 Panel A: Price regression models2 Models: (1) Pit 0 1BVit 2 Eit it ; (2) Pit 0 1BVit it ; (3) Pit 0 1Eit it Vuong’s R21 R22 R23 ̂ 2 ̂1 Year N Z ̂1 ˆ1 statistic 2 RBV RE2 320 1.16 13.10*** 2.14 3.79*** .42 1.25 14.49*** .39 4.24 6.33*** .11 3.05*** .31 .02 IFRS 155 .69 3.62*** 9.67 8.57*** .66 1.92 12.31*** .49 12.70 16.20*** .63 -1.41* .03 .16 Pooled 478 1.13 13.65*** 4.55 8.77*** .50 1.48 18.82*** .42 7.92 14.72*** .31 1.51* .19 .08 01-04 I-GAAP 05-06 Chow’s F statistic 12.72*** 6.41*** 27.98*** Panel B: Return regression models3 Model: (4) Rit 0 1 Eit Pit 1 2 Eit Pit 1 it Year N ˆ1 ˆ2 R2 R 2 due to ˆ1 R 2 due to ˆ2 02-04 I-GAAP 245 -.001 -3.11*** -.000 -.02 .03 .03 .00 05-06 IFRS 159 -.133 -2.76*** .006 2.48** .07 .04 .03 Pooled 374 -.001 3.42*** -.000 -.30 .03 .03 .00 Chow’s F statistic 16.58*** 1 N is the number of observations used to estimate each model. The first number in each cell reports the regression coefficient, whereas the second is the value of the t-statistic to test whether the regression coefficient is equal to zero. The symbols *, **, *** indicate the statistical significance of the test at 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. 2 Pit is the price of a share for firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; BVit is the book value per share of firm i at the end of the year t; Eit denotes the earnings per share for firm i for time period t-1 to t. ̂1 , ̂ 2 , ̂1 and ˆ1 are the 2 estimated regression coefficients. R21 , R21 and R21 are the adjusted R2’s. RBV R21 R23 and RE2 R21 R22 measure the incremental value relevance of BV and E respectively. 3 Rit is the dividend adjusted stock market return of firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; Eit / Pit-1 is the earnings per share of year t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscalyear end t-1; ΔEit / Pit-1 is the change in the earnings per share from years t-1 to t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscal-year end t-1. ˆ1 and ˆ2 are the estimated regression coefficients. R 2 is the adjusted R2 of model (4). October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 44 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 6: Pooled regression results comparing the pre-adoption period with the post-adoption one in the three macro-sectors1 Panel A: Price regression models2 Models: (1) Pit 0 1BVit 2 Eit it ; (2) Pit 0 1BVit it ; (3) Pit 0 1Eit it . Finance Sector Vuong’s 2 R21 R22 R23 RBV ̂ 2 ̂1 ̂1 ˆ1 RE2 Year N Z statistic .60 7.47 1.40 9.87 01-04 106 .56 .39 .53 -.98 .04 .17 I-GAAP 3.17*** 6.48*** 8.34*** 10.88*** 05-06 IFRS 48 -.05 -.24 .28 1.72* Chow’s F statistic Pooled 155 13.08 .88 12.38*** 1.83 6.84*** .49 12.89 .88 18.95*** 10.20 1.55 11.33 .66 .40 .66 11.11*** 10.30*** 17.50*** 3.68** 2.69* 3.07** -3.39*** .00 .39 -2.09** .00 .26 Industry Sector Year 01-04 I-GAAP 05-06 IFRS N ̂1 ̂ 2 R21 ̂1 R22 ˆ R23 Vuong’s Z statistic 2 RBV RE2 1 137 1.56 2.67 12.09*** 3.45*** .55 1.60 .51 12.01*** 3.57 3.22*** .06 3.50*** .48 .04 69 1.27 3.91*** .58 2.05 8.74*** 11.23 8.24*** .49 .33 .09 .06 3.34*** .39 .03 5.95 3.24** .52 1.67 2.92 1.82 6.13 .55 .52 .16 13.54*** 3.92*** 15.08*** 6.33*** Chow’s F statistic 3.68** 8.36*** 11.87*** Pooled 207 Services Sector ̂ 2 R21 ̂1 R22 ˆ1 R23 Vuong’s Z statistic 2 RBV RE2 Year N ̂1 01-04 72 1.25 6.86*** 3.42 2.60** .41 1.23 6.51*** .36 3.04 1.81* .03 1.63* .38 .05 35 1.88 6.56*** 13.69 7.43*** .70 1.46 3.23*** .21 11.29 4.18*** .32 -.36 .38 .48 .91 .33 .15 I-GAAP 05-06 IFRS 1.32 8.39*** Chow’s F statistic Pooled 109 October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 6.02 1.33 6.10 .48 .33 .15 5.65*** 7.45*** 4.47*** 9.77*** 2.61* 2.76* 45 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics Model: Year Panel B: Return regression models3 (4) Rit 0 1 Eit Pit 1 2 Eit Pit 1 it N 02-04 I-GAAP 84 05-06 IFRS 53 Pooled 137 ˆ1 .037 .37 1.047 1.84* .059 .72 Chow’s F statistic Year N 02-04 I-GAAP 103 05-06 IFRS 74 Pooled 183 ˆ1 -.001 -3.39*** -.098 -1.17 -.001 -2.23** Chow’s F statistic Year N 02-04 I-GAAP 55 05-06 IFRS 34 Pooled 90 Chow’s F statistic ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 ˆ1 -.065 -.17 .292 4.09** .081 .58 Finance Sector ˆ2 R2 -.003 -.01 -.90 .011 .13 2.69** .002 -.01 .65 7.41*** Industry Sector ˆ2 R2 .000 .08 .06 .003 .00 .56 .000 .02 -.25 14.75*** Services Sector ˆ2 R2 .001 -.03 -.58 .089 .30 1.93* -.007 -.01 -.69 1.06 R 2 due to ˆ1 R 2 due to ˆ2 -.01 .00 .04 .10 .00 .00 R 2 due to ˆ1 R 2 due to ˆ2 .09 -.01 .00 .00 .02 -.01 R 2 due to ˆ1 R 2 due to ˆ2 -.02 -.01 .23 .06 -.01 -.01 1 N is the number of observations used to estimate each model. The first number in each cell reports the regression coefficient, whereas the second is the value of the t-statistic to test whether the regression coefficient is equal to zero. The symbols *, **, *** indicate the statistical significance of the test at 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. 2 Pit is the price of a share for firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; BVit is the book value per share of firm i at the end of the year t; Eit denotes the earnings per share for firm i for time period t-1 to t. ̂1 , ̂ 2 , ̂1 and ˆ1 are the estimated regression coefficients. R21 , R21 and R21 are the adjusted R2’s. Vuong’s test Z statistic measures the 2 significance of the relative value relevance of model (2) over model (3). RBV R21 R23 and RE2 R21 R22 measure the incremental value relevance of BV and E respectively. 3 Rit is the dividend adjusted stock market return of firm i four months after the fiscal year-end t; Eit / Pit-1 is the earnings per share of year t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscalyear end t-1; ΔEit / Pit-1 is the change in the earnings per share from years t-1 to t deflated by the stock price in year t-1 observed for firm i four months after the fiscal-year end t-1. ˆ1 and ˆ2 are the estimated regression coefficients. R 2 is the adjusted R2 of model (4). October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 46 9th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 978-0-9742114-2-7 Table 7: Sensitivity analysis results1 Model2: (5) log uit 1Mcapit 2 Finit 3 Indit 4 Servit 5 Sign.Eit it Data N 01-04I-GAAP 321 05-06IFRS 158 ˆ1 ˆ2 ˆ3 ˆ4 ˆ5 -.000 .987 1.057 1.139 -.224 .45 5.78*** 7.22*** 6.26*** -1.48 .000 .022 .096 .084 .003 1.32 .71 3.61*** 2.56** .10 R2 .38 .41 1 N is the number of the observation. The first number in each cell reports the regression coefficient, whereas the second is the value of the t-statistic to test whether the regression coefficient is equal to zero. The symbols *, **, *** indicate the statistical significance of the test at 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. 2 log uit t is the natural logarithm of the absolute value of residuals of model (1) for firm i at time t; Mcapt is the market capitalization of firm i at the end of the year t; Fin, Ind and Serv are dummy variable indicating if the firm i at time t belongs to the Finance, Industry or Services sector, respectively. Sign.E is another dummy variable indicating if the firm i at time t reported positive earnings or not. October 16-17, 2009 Cambridge University, UK 47