6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (FDI) in Nigeria Adaora Nwankwo, Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, England ABSTRACT The success stories of India and China’s economic development highlights the benefits that a country can get by utilizing a strategy that attracts and gains value from FDI. While FDI inflows have been increasing in some developing countries, Africa has not been successful except in natural-resource exploitation. Given the importance of FDI to Africa, an important question that arises is: How can Nigeria increase its global share of FDI? Nigeria has the potential to become Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy because of its rich human and natural resources but in spite of this, Nigeria is considered to be one of the 20 poorest countries in the world. About 70% of the population live below the poverty line and with an investment rate of barely 10% of GDP, Nigeria is below the minimum investment rate of about 30% of GDP required to reduce poverty. This paper uses data over the period 1962 - 2003 to identify the main determinants of FDI inflows in Nigeria. An important implication of the result is that FDI in Nigeria is mainly affected by political instability, macro-economic instability and the availability of natural resources. INTRODUCTION In the face of inadequate resources to finance long-term development in Africa and with poverty reduction looking increasingly bleak, attracting FDI has assumed a prominent place in the strategies of African countries. The experience of a small number of fast-growing East Asian newly industrialized economies has strengthened the belief that attracting FDI could bridge the resource gap of low-income countries and avoid further build-up of debt while directly tackling the causes of poverty (UNCTAD 2004). While FDI has been flowing to different regions of the world in growing proportions, Africa has been receiving the least of global FDI inflows. African countries, like many developing countries need a substantial inflow of external resources in order to make up for the savings and foreign exchange gaps associated with a rapid rate of capital accumulation. Africa also needs growth to overcome widespread poverty and Africa’s development crisis is unique as it is the poorest region in the world and remains mired in debt (Sachs 2004). Since FDI can create employment and act as a vehicle of technology transfer, provide superior skills and management techniques, facilitate local firm’s access to international markets and increase product diversity, FDI can therefore be an engine of economic growth and development in Africa where its need cannot be overemphasised (Ngowi 2001; Mckinsey 2005). The evidence on growth and poverty reduction is best approached by looking at two countries that have huge reduction in poverty; China and India. A vast majority of the world’s poor live in these countries but both countries achieved significant reductions in poverty during 1980-2000 when they grew rapidly by opening up to foreign investment (Bhagwati and Srinivasan 2002). Sachs (2004) argues that Africa is actually suffering from poor governance as in Zimbabwe and widespread war and violence as in Angola, Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Sudan. To overcome many OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 1 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X of the constraints on productivity, Africa will require a sustained program of targeted investments. According to the 2005 World Development Report, governments need to improve their country’s investment climate in order to increase the opportunities and incentives for enterprises, both domestic and foreign, to invest productively (Snowdon 2005). This paper is structured as follows. It proceeds by examining the background of the paper which gives a brief account of the previous and current work of other scholars on FDI in Africa and Nigeria. This is followed by a description of the methodology and data. The result of the empirical process follows and the paper concludes with the summary of the paper. Foreign Direct Investment in Africa Africa’s natural resources account for the uneven spread of FDI inflows across the continent and the 24 countries in Africa classified by the World Bank as oil and mineral-dependent have on average accounted for close to three-quarters of annual FDI flows over the past two decades (UNCTAD 2005). In spite of the abundance of natural resources in Africa, the investment response has been poor even with the economic reforms aimed at creating an investor-friendly environment. Collier and Patillo (1999) argue that investment is low in Africa because of the closed trade policy, inadequate transport and telecommunications, low productivity and corruption. Cantwell (1997) has suggested that most African countries lack the skill and technological infrastructure to effectively absorb larger flows of FDI even in the primary sector and Lall (2004) sees the lack of “technological effort” in Africa as cutting it off from the most dynamic components of global FDI flows in manufacturing. The low level of FDI to Africa is also explained by the reversible nature of liberalization efforts and the abuse of trade policies for wider economic and social goals. Others have singled out unfavourable and unstable tax regimes (Gastanaga et al. 1998), large external debt burdens (Sachs 2004; Borensztein 1990), the slow pace of public sector reform, particularly privatization (Akingube 2003) and the inadequacy of intellectual property protection as erecting serious obstacles to FDI in Africa. However, considering the importance of a good business climate, a study of African competitiveness found that, in terms of business environment, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) does not fare badly relative to other developing regions (Lall 2004) and also, corporate tax rates in Africa do not appear to be at variance with those in other regions (Hanson 2001). However, Lyakurwa (2003) has stressed macroeconomic policy failures as deflecting FDI flows from Africa. According to Lyakurwa, irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies have generated unsustainable budget deficits and inflationary pressures, raising local production costs, generating exchange rate instability and making the region too risky a location for FDI. In addition, excessive levels of corruption, regulation and political risk are also believed to have further raised costs, adding to an unattractive business climate for FDI. Ngowi (2001) points out that the main factors preventing an increased inflow of FDI in Africa is that most countries are regarded as high risk because they are characterized by a lack of political and institutional stability. Additional factors that are cited as hindrances to prospective FDI include poor access to world markets, price instability, high levels of corruption, small and stagnant markets and inadequate infrastructure. Morrisset (2000) suggests that the most important features of African countries successfully attracting FDI are strong economic growth and aggressive trade liberalization. Other important factors include privatization programs, the modernization of mining and investment codes, the adoption of international agreements relating to FDI, a few large priority projects which have significant multiplier effects, and a high-profile image-building exhibition involving the head of state. Morisset emphasizes the need for policy coordination in attracting FDI and argues that the most important factor in attracting significant levels of foreign investment is a stable macroeconomic and political environment. OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 2 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria Nigeria has the potential to become Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy and a major player in the global economy because of its rich human and material resources. With its large reserves of human and natural resources, Nigeria has the potential to build a prosperous economy, reduce poverty significantly, and provide the health, education, and infrastructure services its population needs. However this has not been achieved because all major productive sectors have considerably shrunk in size with the over dependence on oil. Income distribution is so skewed that the country is one of the most unequal societies in the world, with 50% of the population having only 8% of the national income (Chart 1). Chart 1- Income Distribution 1970 - 2000 Source: Sala-i-Martin and Subramaniam 2003 The economy remains highly uncompetitive and with an average annual investment rate of barely 10% of GDP, Nigeria is far behind the minimum investment rate of about 30% of GDP required to unleash a poverty-reducing growth rate (Chart 2). Chart 2 – Poverty Rates 1970-2000 OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 3 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X Source: Sala-i-Martin and Subramaniam 2003 Most of the FDI in Nigeria goes into the oil and extractive sectors and the economic structure remains highly undiversified, with oil accounting for 95% of exports (USAID 2003). However, the Nigerian government has acted to stimulate non-oil businesses through the promotion of Small and Medium Enterprise (SME). These efforts and the momentum provided to the nation by the return of a democratic government are reflected in the “Improvement and Optimism Indexes” compiled by the World Economic Forum’s Africa Competitiveness Report (2000–2001), which ranks Nigeria fourth among 12 African countries in terms of improvement and first, in terms of “optimism” (AFDB/OECD 2003; Ariyo 2004). Chart 3 Share of Petroleum in FDI Inflows to Four Major African Countries in 2004 Share in % 100 80 60 % Share of Petroleum 40 % Share of other resources 20 0 Angola Egypt Nigeria Equatorial Guinea Economy Source: World Investment Report 2005 Overshadowing everything else are several problems facing all businesses; both domestic and foreign. These are weaknesses in infrastructure provision, a lack of personal and property security, poor governance and corruption. Without continued efforts in these areas, efforts on other fronts, however sound, might have a limited impact. Reflecting such major constraints, Nigeria ranked below average in OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 4 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X the 2005Transparency International Business Confidence Survey among African countries surveyed. Such a poor environment for business makes it difficult for Nigeria to increase the rate of FDI inflows. While these factors are in a sense intangible in the business climate, their impact is real in terms of its effect on foreign investment and consequently on the growth of the economy (Table 1). Table 1 Assessment of market attractiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa Strategic markets Problematic markets South Africa Algeria Angola Cameroun Cote d’Ivoire Ghana Kenya Morocco Nigeria Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Source: Beraho 1997 Other elements like the complex regulatory environment, policy instability, the predominance of state owned enterprises, and layers of business regulation at the state and local level, all contribute to corruption by providing opportunities for patronage and intervention in private business affairs (AFDB/OECD 2003; World Bank 2002). In spite of this, the table below indicates that Nigeria still ranks amongst the top FDI receiving countries in Africa. Table 2 Africa: country distribution of FDI inflows, 2003-2004 2003 2004 Economy Economy More than $2.0 Angola, Morocco and Nigeria Nigeria and Angola billion $1.0-1.9 billion Equatorial Guinea and Sudan Equatorial Guinea, Sudan and Egypt $0.5-0.9 billion South Africa, Chad, Algeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tunisia and United Republic of Algeria, Morocco, Congo, Tunisia, Tanzania South Africa, and Ethiopia $0.1-0.4 billion Ethiopia, Botswana, Mozambique, Chad, United Republic of Tanzania, Congo, Egypt, Mauritania, Cote d’Ivoire, Zambia, Gabon, Uganda, Gabon, Zambia, Cote Mauritania, Namibia, Uganda, Mali, d’Ivoire Less than $0.1 Kenya, Guinea, Mauritius, Senegal, Swaziland, Mauritius, Benin, billion Seychelles, Senegal, Benin, Gambia, Togo, Seychelles, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Togo, Zimbabwe, Sao Tome and Principe, Lesotho, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Eritrea, Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar Cape Verde, Madagascar Source: World Investment Report 2005 Listed in order of the magnitude of FDI inflows for each respective year. However with the transition to democracy and intense competition for FDI by other developing countries, the Nigerian administration now shows a welcoming attitude to investors. The government has aimed its most generous incentives at the sectors that present the greatest obstacles to economic development, particularly infrastructure. Nigeria is becoming investor-friendly, with some laws allowing for 100% foreign ownership of businesses and unhindered repatriation of capital. In addition, the OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 5 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X government has put in place a range of incentives designed to lower the cost of doing business to offset the higher-cost operating environment arising from factors such as deficient infrastructure. Various industries have been afforded ‘pioneer status’, giving start-ups a five-year tax holiday. There are 69 industries benefiting from this incentive, including mining, large-scale commercialised agriculture, food processing, manufacturing and tourism. Manufacturers that add value to imported inputs are eligible for a five-year 10% local VAT concession. Manufacturers using a prescribed minimum level of local raw materials, for instance, 70% for agro-allied industries and 60% for engineering industries, are entitled to a five-year 20% tax concession. Investors can take advantage of an infrastructure incentive that permits a 20% tax deduction of the cost of providing infrastructure facilities that should have been provided by the government. Such facilities include access roads, pipe-borne water and electricity supply. There is a generous tax allowance on research and development (R&D), with up to 120% of expenditure being tax deductible, provided that such R&D activities are carried out in Nigeria and are related to the business from which profits are derived. In the case of research into the use of local raw materials, the tax-deductible allowance rises to 140%. The government is also targeting investment into some economically disadvantaged areas, extending the tax holiday available to ‘pioneer status’ industries to seven years and adding a 5% capital depreciation allowance. Additional tax breaks are available for labour-intensive modes of production. (Financial Times 2005). According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance over the last two years has been commendable. The economic reform efforts are showing positive results including: In 2005, growth continued to be strong at 7% for the economy as a whole and 8% for the non-oil sector. In the first quarter of 2006, the Nigerian economy grew by 8.3%. In January 2006, the country received its first credit rating (BB-) from Fitch and Standard and Poor’s. Year-on-year inflation fell from 28% in August to 12% by December 2005. A Fiscal Responsibility Bill has passed critical second readings in both the Senate and House. The National Assembly is discussing a Public Procurement Reform Bill. A bank consolidation program was implemented strengthening the financial sector and enhancing its ability to provide credit to the private sector. The import tariff regime has been liberalized reducing the number of tariff bands from 19 to 5 and lowering the average tariff from about 29% to 12%. With the deregulation of the telecommunication sector, Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is now in a rapid growth mode. According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), there’s enormous growth potential in the market, as demand for telecom service has been high because of market liberalization and massive telecom investments. Over recent years, all branches of the telecom industry have generated considerable growth and the telecom industry has emerged as a main motor of the country’s economy. It is only the oil sector that has seen more investment and telecom is now seen as the most lucrative branch for investment in Nigeria’s economy. As a result, Nigeria presently boasts Africa’s largest and most promising telecom market. Even though Nigeria is trailing other countries in terms of providing phone technology at an affordable price and doing so reliably, the market has taken significant strides in its development (Ariyo 2005). Theoretical framework on Foreign Direct Investment A number of theories have been developed to explain the determinants of FDI. Extensive reviews of the main FDI theories and determinants of FDI range from the economic theories of Vernon (1966), the internationalisation theories of Rugman (1981) and Dunning’s (1993) eclectic paradigm. However, the main theory adopted in this paper are drawn from Dunning (1977; 1993) who suggested that the main factors that drive FDI inflows have been the need to secure market access, the opportunities presented by large scale privatization processes and the degree of political and economic stability. The eclectic paradigm of Dunning, also known as OLI, proposes that the undertaking of FDI is OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 6 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X determined by the realization of three groups of advantages and they are: Ownership – specific advantages – these arise from the firm’s size and access to markets and resources, the firm’s ability to coordinate complementary activities like manufacturing and distribution and the ability to exploit differences between countries. Locational advantages – this includes differences in country natural endowments, transport costs, macroeconomic stability, cultural factors and government regulations. These help to determine which countries are host to MNEs foreign production. Internationalisation incentives – this arises from exploiting imperfections in external markets. These include the reduction of uncertainty and transaction costs in order to generate knowledge more efficiently and the reduction of state – generated imperfections such as tariffs, foreign exchange controls and subsidies. Considering the objective of the research, an emphasis has been placed on the locational determinants of FDI. According to Erdal and Tatoglu (2002), the locational determinants of FDI can therefore be summarized as market size and market growth, raw materials and labour supply, political and legal environment, host government policies, geographical proximity and host country infrastructure. The Description of Data and Methodology The research covers Nigeria over the period of 1962 -2003. The dependent variable is the rate of FDI inflows in Nigeria. All the data was obtained from the International Financial Statistics Yearbook, published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1992, 1996 and 2004. The Independent variables used in this research are: 1. 2. 3. 4. Market Size- A rapidly growing economy provides better opportunities for making profits than the ones growing slowly or not all (Lim 1983) and an impressive rate of economic growth will be taken as a favourable signal by foreign investors when making investment decisions (Asiebu 2003; Erdal and Tatoglu 2002). GDP can be used to capture the influence of proven economic performance (Obwona 2003), so the annual growth rate of real GDP is used as a measure of how attractive the market is. Macroeconomic stability– Exchange rates are expected to affect FDI inflows because they affect a firm’s cash flow, expected profitability and the attractiveness of domestic assets to foreign investors (Erdal and Tatoglu 2002; Maniam 1998). Exchange rate fluctuations are used as a measure of macroeconomic instability. The higher and more unstable it is, the less FDI inflows into a host country. Political stability – Political stability is important for creating a climate of confidence for investors. Political instability whether perceived or real could be a serious deterrent for FDI as it creates uncertainties and increases risks and costs (Obwona 2003). The frequency of coup d'état in the country is used as a measure of political instability and the transition to democracy would be used as an indicator of political stability. Dummy variables would be used to capture these variables and their effect on FDI. Availability of natural resources - According to Dunning, countries with an abundance of natural resources would receive more FDI. While Asiebu (2003) used the share of total exports to show the availability of natural resources, in this research, the exports of crude petroleum is used instead of total exports because at least 95% of Nigeria’s exports is from crude petroleum. The model is: FDI 1 GDP 2 EXRA 3 COUP 4TRDE 5 EXCR i Table 3: Description of Data Independent Variables Expressed As Testing Real GDP Exchange Rate fluctuations Coup d’etat Transition to Democracy GDP EXRA COUP TRDE Market Growth Macroeconomic Instability Political Instability Political Stability OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA 7 Expected Sign + + 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics Exports of Crude Petroleum ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X EXCR Availability Resources of Natural + The augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF) unit root test was conducted to examine whether each series of interest are stationary or not. The ADF test showed that all the series were stationary and a co-integration test was also conducted to check if these variables have any long-run equilibrium relationship. The test showed that there is a long –term relationship between FDI and the other series. A simple regression test was also conducted to predict the value of the dependent variable given a value of the independent variables. Table 2 and 3 shows that there is a significant relationship between FDI and GDP, this confirms that an impressive rate of economic growth will be taken as a favourable signal by foreign investors when making investment decisions (Asiebu 2003; Erdal and Tatoglu 2002). The tables also indicate a positive relationship between FDI and a stable exchange rate, which also confirms the literature that argues that exchange rates are expected to affect FDI inflows because they affect a firm’s cash flow, expected profitability and the attractiveness of domestic assets to foreign investors (Erdal and Tatoglu 2002; Maniam 1998). However, coup d’etat did not have a positive relationship with FDI which indicates that political instability whether perceived or real could be a serious deterrent for FDI as it creates uncertainties and increases risks and costs (Obwona 2003). Also, the transition to democracy which is an indicator of political stability does not have a significant relationship with FDI, this could be attributed to the few number of years that democracy has been in place in Nigeria. Table 4: Simple Regression Test Dependent Variable: LFDI Method: Least Squares Sample: 1963 2003 Method: Least Squares Variable Coefficient C 0.685763 LGDP (-1) 0.623248 LEXCR(-1) -0.358031 COUP -0.865414 TRDE -0.526096 LEXRA(-) 0.301720 R-squared 0.456126 Adjusted R-squared 0.371146 S.E. of regression 0.762464 Sum squared resid 18.60323 Log likelihood -40.34890 Durbin-Watson stat 1.916260 OCTOBER 15-17, 2006 GUTMAN CONFERENCE CENTER, USA Std Error t-Statistic 2.698103 0.254165 0.325944 1.912135 0.226965 -1.577471 0.537745 -1.609338 0.599910 -0.876958 0.83348 3.620007 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 8 Prob 0.8010 0.0648 0.1245 0.1174 0.3870 0.0010 5.243340 0.961489 2.439416 2.697982 5.367433 0.001078 6th Global Conference on Business & Economics Table 5: Simple Regression Test Dependent Variable: LFDI Method: Least Squares Sample: 1963 2003 Method: Least Squares Variable Coefficient C -0.84036 LGDP (-1) 0.663968 LEXRA(-1) 0.333738 LEXCR(-1) -0.479199 R-squared 0.382712 Adjusted R-squared 0.328245 S.E. of regression 0.788042 Sum squared resid 21.11436 Log likelihood -42.75464 Durbin-Watson stat 1.772061 ISBN : 0-9742114-6-X Std Error t-Statistic 2.599274 -0.32330 0.321270 2.066699 0.076055 4.388137 0.197747 -2.423289 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Prob 0.9744 0.0464 0.0001 0.0209 5.243340 0.961489 2.460771 2.633148 7.026548 0.000842 Conclusion This paper has looked at the determinants of FDI in Nigeria and it shows that a strong market and macroeconomic stability and natural resource endowments promote FDI while political instability and the transition to democracy have the opposite result. This suggests that a strong market and macroeconomic stability encourages foreign investment in Nigeria while political instability discourages foreign investment. However democracy, which was used as an indicator of political stability, suggests that foreign investment which is primarily based geared towards the oil sector is not stimulated by the presence of a democratic government. Limitations of the research strategy and methods Considering the role of corruption, the administrative process and the standard of infrastructure as a major deterrent of FDI in Africa, the researcher did not use these variables as some of the independent variables because of the unavailability of time series data for the 42 years under study. References African Economic Institute for Applied Economics (2003). Nigeria: Macroeconomic Assessment and Agenda for Reforms. USAID/Nigeria Macroeconomic Assessment Contract. 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