Upstream Lake Influence on Lake-effect Snowfall
Neil Laird
Department of Geoscience
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Photo of Lake Ontario lake-effect snow band
at Sodus Point, NY
Jessica McDonald
Department of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences
St. Cloud State University
Dylan Doeblin
Department of Geoscience
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
This research was conducted during the 2015 undergraduate summer research
program at Hobart & William Smith (HWS) Colleges. Funding for this project was
provided by the National Science Foundation and the HWS Provost's Office.
INTRODUCTION: Great Lakes Snowfall (Seasonal Mean)
From Norton and Bolsenga (1993)
INTRODUCTION: Lake-to-Lake (L2L; multi-lake) Cloud Bands
INTRODUCTION: Lake-effect over Lake Michigan & Lake Ontario
17 Winters (1995/96 – 2013/14); GOES visible (14 – 20 UTC)
From Laird et al. (in preparation), Climatology of Cold Season Lake-effect Cloud Bands
for the North American Great Lakes, Int. J. Climatol.
INTRODUCTION: Frequency of L2L Cloud Bands
From Laird et al. (in preparation), Climatology of Cold Season Lake-effect Cloud Bands
for the North American Great Lakes, Int. J. Climatol.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES & METHODS
Objective:
• Investigate the influence that an upstream lake has on snowfall in vicinity of a
downstream lake
• Enhancement of snowfall? How much? What locations?
Data & Methods:
• SNODAS
• SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS)
• National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)
• Daily snowfall gridded product (6 UTC – 6 UTC); Liquid Water Equivalent
• Available from 2003-2015; included LE days 2003/2004 – 2013/2014 (11 winters)
• Analyses in GIS; grid spacing of approximately 1 km2
• NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Composites
• Sea Level Pressure (hPa), 2m Specific Humidity (kg/kg),
850mb Temperature (K), 850mb Vector Wind (m/s)
RESULTS: Lake Huron connection to Lake Ontario (SPB)
Shore-Parallel BANDS: Mean Snowfall (mm day -1)
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
NY
PA
Lake Ontario Only
(288 days)
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
NY
PA
Huron-Ontario L2L
(31 days)
NY
PA
L2L – Lake Ontario Only
RESULTS: Lake Huron connection to Lake Ontario (SPB)
NARR
Composite
MSLP
18 UTC
Lake Ontario Only
L2L
NARR
Composite
Specific
Humidity
18 UTC
Lake Ontario Only
L2L
RESULTS: Lake Huron connection to Lake Ontario (WPB)
Wind-Parallel BANDS (multi-band): Mean Snowfall (mm day -1)
Lake Ontario
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
Lake
Erie
NY
PA
Lake Ontario Only
(231 days)
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
NY
PA
Huron-Ontario L2L
(33 days)
NY
PA
L2L – Lake Ontario Only
RESULTS: Lake Huron connection to Lake Ontario (WPB)
NARR
Composite
MSLP
18 UTC
Lake Ontario Only
L2L
NARR
Composite
Specific
Humidity
18 UTC
Lake Ontario Only
L2L
RESULTS: Lake Huron connection to Lake Ontario
Difference in Mean Snowfall (mm day -1) of L2L – Lake Ontario Only
Shore-Parallel BANDS
Wind-Parallel BANDS (multi-band)
Lake Ontario
Lake Ontario
Lake
Erie
Lake
Erie
NY
PA
NY
PA
RESULTS: Lake Superior connection to Lake Michigan (SPB)
Shore-Parallel BANDS: Mean Snowfall (mm day -1)
Lake Superior
Lake Superior
Lake Superior
WI
WI
WI
Lake
Lake
Lake
MI
MI
Michigan
Michigan
IL
IL
IN
Lake Michigan Only
(160 days)
MI
Michigan
IL
IN
Superior-Michigan L2L
(17 days)
IN
L2L – Lake Michigan Only
RESULTS: Lake Superior connection to Lake Michigan (SPB)
NARR
Composite
MSLP
18 UTC
Lake Michigan Only
L2L
NARR
Composite
Specific
Humidity
18 UTC
Lake Michigan Only
L2L
RESULTS: Lake Superior connection to Lake Michigan (WPB)
Wind-Parallel BANDS (multi-band): Mean Snowfall (mm day -1)
Lake Superior
Lake Superior
Lake Superior
WI
WI
WI
Lake
Lake
Lake
MI
MI
Michigan
Michigan
IL
IL
IN
Lake Michigan Only
(442 days)
MI
Michigan
IL
IN
Superior-Michigan L2L
(125 days)
IN
L2L – Lake Michigan Only
RESULTS: Lake Superior connection to Lake Michigan (WPB)
NARR
Composite
MSLP
18 UTC
Lake Michigan Only
L2L
NARR
Composite
Specific
Humidity
18 UTC
Lake Michigan Only
L2L
RESULTS: Lake Superior connection to Lake Michigan
Difference in Mean Snowfall (mm day -1) of L2L – Lake Michigan Only
Wind-Parallel BANDS (multi-band)
Shore-Parallel BANDS
Lake Superior
Lake Superior
WI
WI
Lake
Lake
MI
MI
Michigan
Michigan
IL
IL
IN
IN
SUMMARY
Huron – Ontario L2L Snowfall:
• Snowfall greater for both WPB and SPB having L2L connection
• L2L WPB about 3x mean snowfall over Lake Ontario only
• L2L SPB about 3-4x mean snowfall over Lake Ontario only
• L2L SPB snowfall differences largest over Tug Hill & Southern ADKs
• L2L WPB snowfall differences largest over Oneida Lake area (SYR & UCA)
• L2L stronger surface & 850-hPa winds with greater near-sfc humidity
• L2L colder 850-hPa temperatures with sfc temperatures similar
Superior – Michigan L2L Snowfall:
• Snowfall greater for both WPB and SPB having L2L connection
• L2L WPB about 2x mean snowfall over Lake Ontario only
• L2L SPB about 2x mean snowfall over Lake Ontario only
• L2L snowfall differences largest over NE & SE Lake Michigan shoreline regions
• Surprisingly WPB produced larger composite mean snowfall than SPB
• L2L stronger northerly surface & 850-hPa winds with greater near-sfc humidity
• L2L colder 850-hPa temperatures with sfc temperatures similar