Shocks and Aftershocks:
Lessons from Thailand
and Indonesia
Lessons from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
The First Annual Elisabeth and Henry Morss Jr.
Colloquium
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Massachusetts USA
Dr. Stephen J. Atwood, MD, F.A.A. P.
Regional Advisor, Health and Nutrition
UNICEF East Asia and Pacific Regoinal Office
Bangkok, Thailand
October 31 2006
Purpose of this presentation
•
•
•
To present the observations and lessons
learned from tsunami impact and aftermath
from two different sites -- Thailand and
Indonesia.
To present the socio-ecological impact of the
subsequent 28 March 2005 aftershock on the
island of Nias off the west coast of Sumatra
To use the examples of earthquake / tsunami
impact in these different settings to develop
ideas for change in preparation for and
mitigation of future disasters.
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Background
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Background: the earthquake
• On December 26, 2004 at 07.58 am (local time) an
undersea earthquake occurred with an epicentre off
the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The magnitude
of the earthquake has been measured as between
9.1 and 9.3 on the Richter scale.
• The second largest earthquake ever recorded on a
seismograph.
• Reported to be the longest duration of faulting ever
observed, lasting between 500 and 600 seconds.
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Background: the tsunami
• The earthquake, because of the large vertical
displacement of the seabed, generated a series of
tsunamis moving most strongly in an east-west
direction that hit neighboring Aceh within 15 minutes
and the south west coast of Thailand approximately 2
hours later.
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Countries affected
Animation of the tsunami showing how the tsunami radiated
from the entire length of the 1,200 kilometer (750 mi) rupture.
National oceanic and atmospheric administration, 30 December 2004
The wave that hit Aceh
• Early estimates
were of a 30-foot
wave.
• Later Researchers
found evidence of
waves as high as
24 m (80 ft) when
coming ashore
along large
stretches of the
coastline, rising to
30 m (100 ft) in
some areas
travelling inland.
• The wave’s
average velocity on
shore was 45 feet /
second.
Moore, Tsuji: Seattle Post Intelligencer
07 February, 2005
The wave that hit Thailand
Photo: David Rydevik, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ao Nang, Thailand. 26 Dec 2004
Preconditions and
Vulnerabilities
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Thailand: The highly visible …
– Economy in the Phuket area formerly based on rubber trees,
tin mining, and fishing. But soaring land prices due to
tourism have pushed other industries out.
– After opening of Phuket International Airport in 1976, tourism
has become the primary economic force. Managed by Thais
but requiring (seasonally) large numbers of laborers from
other parts of Thailand and from neighboring countries.
– A healthy infrastructure with health care (including
emergency obstetric facilities), roads, water, and sanitation.
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Thailand: … and the invisible
• The need for inexpensive labour to serve the
hospitality, agricultural, construction, and fishery
industries.
• Easier access of migrants to Thai shores; longstanding co-dependency.
• 73,000 migrant workers were reportedly registered for
work in the tsunami-affected provinces beginning in
July 2004 – considered a significant underestimation
since many were unregistered.
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Aceh Province, Indonesia: Open …
• Aceh Province was considered the entry point for
Islam into Indonesia and the rest of Southeast Asia
(c. 700- 800 CE).
• Aceh was never under the formal control of colonial
Netherlands. Since Indonesian independence
granted by the UN in 1949 was from the Dutch, the
Acehnese felt betrayed by the UN resolution that
included them in the new Indonesian Republic.
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Aceh Province, Indonesia: Open …
• A socio economic stronghold in the 1970’s and
1980’s with abundant international aid, multinational
experts and multinational investment. During that
period, infrastructure was developed, and social
services improved.
• Between 1990 – 2001, the once-rich province
became one of the slowest growing with poverty
levels rising from 1.8% (1989) to 30% (2001). (ref. ISEAS,
May 2003)
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Aceh Province, Indonesia: … and closed.
• The separatist movement started in 1976 with the
formation of Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM) or Free
Aceh Movement but did not have impact until 1990s
• Security crackdowns in 2001 and 2002 resulted in
several thousand civilian deaths with human rights
abuses on both sides; government feared parallel
with the independence of Timor Leste and the
separatist movements in Papua.
• Many higher-educated and better off Acehnese
began leaving the Province in 2000.
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Aceh Province, Indonesia: … and closed.
• Access for international humanitarian and human
rights agencies were severely restricted by
Indonesian government after 2003.
• A nutrition survey done in Aceh Province in Feb –
March 2005 found an unacceptably high level of
undernutrition in children and women in both areas
affected and unaffected by the Tsunami, which
indicated a problem that existed before the tsunami.
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Geography and Terrain:
• Indian Ocean Tsunami a part of the Alpide Belt of volcanic
and seismic activity, the second most active in the world.
• However, no history of large tsunami in the Indian Ocean
since Krakatoa erupted (1883). Hence, as distinct from
the “Pacific Ring of Fire” (which includes northeastern
Indonesia, Hawaii, and the West Coast of USA), no early
warning system for tsunami in the Indian Ocean.
• With few exceptions, early warning signs (e.g., recession
of the sea) were curios rather than cautions. Children and
tourists explored the vast areas of exposed beach.
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Sea recession - Thailand
• Maximum recession of tsunami waters at Kata Noi Beach, Phuket, Thailand, before the 3rd,
and strongest, tsunami wave (sea visible in the right corner). (26 December 2004)
Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Geography and Terrain:
• The high-rise resorts of Phuket and the proximity of
the mountainous interior offered more protection
than the bungalow architecture and flatter geography
of dwellings and resorts north of the city.
• The east-west orientation of the tsunami hit more
than 800 km of coastal area on the west coast of
Sumatra, obliterating the port and city of Calang (pop.
14,000) and the port and much of the city of Meulaboh
(pop. 120,000).
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Timing:
• First wave hit Aceh at approximately 08:00 am local
time and the southwest coast of Thailand
approximately two hours later on a Sunday.
– Schools were closed and children were at home or playing
on the beach. (In Thailand, many schools were on higher
ground farther from the ocean.)
– In Thailand, much of the fishing fleet was on shore; in Aceh,
fishermen were at sea, leaving behind women and children.
– Markets were closed.
– It was the height of the tourist season in Thailand (Phuket
alone has an estimated 35,000 visitors a day; over 4 million
tourists arrived in Phuket in 2002.)
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Preconditions and Vulnerabilities
Summary
• Thailand: Growing economy since the 1980’s with
improving social services and a burgeoning tourist
industry; however, not yet addressing its migrant
problem.
• Aceh: A society that was once thriving but on the
decline since 1990 due to conflict, isolation, and
centralized economic mismanagement; deteriorating
social services, flight of the educated classes.
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The Aftermath and
its consequences
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Ban Nam Khen, Thailand
Photo: S.J. Atwood 01 Jan 2005
Ban Nam Khen, Thailand,
Photo: S.J. Atwood,
01 Jan 2005
Ban Nam Khen, Thailand,
Photo: S.J. Atwood,
01 Jan 2005
Ban Nam Khen, Thailand,
Photo: S.J. Atwood, 01 Jan 2005
Photo: SOURCE Amir, Aceh Besar
Photo: UNICEF, Banda Aceh
Photo: UNICEF, Banda Aceh, 02 Feb 2005
Photo: Joerg Meier, Aceh Besar
Photo:Michael Elmquist, OCHA, Aceh Besar
Photo: Joerg Meier, Aceh Besar
Photo: UNICEF, Aceh
Photo: S.J. Atwood, Banda Aceh
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Casualties
Country where
deaths occurred
Deaths
Confirmed
Injured
130,736
167,736
Sri Lanka
35,322
35,322
India
12,405
18,045
5,395
61
Myanmar
TOTAL (plus all
countries)
Displaced
Estimated
Indonesia
Thailand
Missing
--
37,063
21,411
500,000+
--
516,510
--
5,640
647,599
8,212
8,457
2,817
7,000
400-600
45
200
3,200
~184,168 ~230,210 ~125,100
~45,752
~1.69 mill
UN Office of the Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery
UN Office for the Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery
Joint One-Year Report, December, 2005
Joint One Year Report, December 20052
The Aftermath…
Thailand’s Social Costs
• <50 schools hit by the tsunami, and only 12 of them
seriously damaged. (UNICEF, 14 Jan 2005)
• Schools re-opened on schedule, 1st week of January,
2005. Attendance ~ 50%. (UNICEF, 14 Jan 2005)
• Very limited damage to Health Sector facilities – 4
health clinics in coastal villages and islands were
severly damaged or destroyed. (Asian Disaster Preparedness
Centre, 2005; CDC, MMWR, 28 Jan 2005)
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The Aftermath…
Thailand’s Social Costs
• An estimated 2,500 Burmese workers went missing,
although there appears to have been no concerted
effort to track missing migrant workers by the Thai
authorities so this number is an underestimate.
• Many children of migrant workers were denied
access to primary health care services. (SJA, personal
observations, Jan 2005).
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The Aftermath …
Thailand’s Social Costs
• The Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH)
responded with rapid mobilization of local and
nonlocal clinicians, public health practitioners, and
medical supplies; assessment of health-care needs;
identification of the dead, injured, and missing; and
active surveillance of diesease.
• None of the 10 hospitals had been damaged by the
tsunami; all had activated previously rehearsed,
written mass casualty plans. (CDC, MMWR, 28 Jan 2005)
• As of January 19, 2005 a total of 7,423 survivors had
sought psychiatric help (MOPH, unpublished data, 2005).
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…and its Consequences
• In most cases, Thailand’s well-orchestrated response
along with unprecedented public donations and
relatively easy access contributed to rapid relief and
recovery for the Thai survivors.
• However, coordination of relief organizations and
management of unregulated donations represented a
major challenge (e.g., food went rotting, no
monitoring of quality)
• The sudden visibility of unexpectedly high numbers of
migrant workers and their families who fell outside of
the Thai recovery process drew international attention
to a long-simmering problem that Thailand has been
compelled to deal with.
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The Aftermath …
Aceh’s Social Costs
500,000 Internally Displaced Persons in camps or
relatives homes.
592 Hospitals, health centres destroyed or damaged
2240 Primary, secondary schools destroyed
ordamaged
10,124 Water sources destroyed or damaged
US $ 5.8 billion tstimated total financial need for long
term recovery
5266 Doctors, Health Workers, Teachers and
Government workers were among those dead.
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… and its Consequences
• The restricted access to Aceh led to an almost 2-day
delay in reaching affected areas for assessment and
relief (which explains why the first reports noted only
200 – 2000 dead).
• Eventually, however, the Tsunami and the
overwhelming humanitarian response opened up
access to areas previously inaccessible.
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… and its Consequences
• The deaths of doctors, health workers, teachers and
government workers have contributed to a significant
loss of leadership and skill in the province.
• As the Province opened up, it became obvious that
these workers – because they were Government
employees -- were also the target of the separatist
militants in the North and Northeast contributing to a
wide-spread loss of human resources. Many were
killed or displaced.
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… and its Consequences
• The uneven loss of women’s lives (as high as 4:1 in
some areas) has changed the entire social structure
of Aceh.
• The Acehnese, because of the prevalent belief that
the tsunami was a punishment for their lack of faith,
instituted Shariah Law, a consequence of which is the
formation of a para-legal organization of Shariah
Police that operates outside of the legal system and
is occasionally in conflict with the outside relief
organizations.
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… and its Consequences.
• The Government and GAM agreed on a cease-fire
and ultimately a peace accord in August 2005 ending
29 years of conflict. Negotiations re-opened after the
tsunami.
• Ironically, the 2004 tsunami may have rescued Aceh
from a dangerous downward economic and
development curve. Massive and unprecedented
relief has brought jobs, the potential for economic
recovery, and peace to this formerly war-torn and
backward district.
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The Special
Vulnerability of
Children
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Children in Aceh and Thailand
• Unable to run as fast; not as strong; ability to swim possibly a
factor.
• An added burden to at least one parent – both were more likely
to die.
• More susceptible to disease after the emergency: low
immunization rates of migrant children in Thailand and of most
children in Aceh; tetanus a problem in Thailand.
• All vulnerabilities enhanced by undernutrition: in Aceh 43% girls/
45% boys underweight; 9.2% girls / 10.4% boys severely
undernourished; UNICEF Aceh Nutrition Survey, Feb-Mar 2005
• Experience shows that there are those waiting to exploit
separated children’s increased vulnerability.
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The Special Vulnerability of
Children in Aceh and Phuket
•
•
•
Protection from physical harm: 1/3 of victims
were children (= ~ 50,000 dead)
Protection from exploitation and gender-based
violence: (unknown; no reported cases of
traficking, but no denominator in Aceh or Phuket;
sporadic cases of sexual abuse)
[Protection from Recruitment into armed
groups: (note: Acehnese children had been
witness to or participants in armed conflict for at
least 10 years.)]
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The Special Vulnerability of
Children in Aceh and Phuket
•
Protection from Psychosocial distress:
(unknown, but between 5-10% of survivors of traumatic
events have persistent Post-traumatic Distress
Syndrome requiring psychiatric counselling.)
•
Protection from abuse related to forced
displacement: (up to 500,000 families displaced
forced to live in camps or in host families)
•
Protection from family separation: (up to 2800
children were separated from families or orphaned;
more women then men killed)
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Photo: UNICEF, Aceh, 16 May 2005
The Aftershock:
Nias earthquake
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Background: Nias Earthquake
• On March 28, at 11:09 pm, a magnitude 8.7
earthquake hit the west coast of Sumatra half way
between the islands of Nias and Simileu.
• Considered an aftershock of the December 2004
earthquake, as it was on the same fault.
• Approximately 1300 deaths, mainly on Nias.
• 85% of all structures in the northern capital
Gunungsitoli were destroyed.
• Nias already a marginalized and poor society
because of geographic and social remoteness.
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Nias Earthquake: social and
economic toll
• Researchers found the earthquake was associated
with uplift of up to three meters over a 400-kilometer
stretch of the Sunda megathrust (Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, Science, March 2006)
• The uplift on Hinako Islands and Sirombu port on the
west coast of Nias led to profound social and
environmental changes: killing of coral reefs, loss of
ports and jettys, change in fishing habits, decrease in
water table with subsequent exhaustion of wells and
water sources.
• With a crumbling economy, poor water supply,
persistent fear, many have left the islands.
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Uplift on Nias Island
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The Port at Hinako - before
Photo: Channa Seneratne, LEAP
The Port at Hinako -- after
Photo: S.J. Atwood, Feb, 2006
The Port at Hinako -- after
Photo: S.J. Atwood, Feb, 2006
The Port at Hinako -- after
Photo: S.J. Atwood, Feb, 2006
Analysis and
Summary
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Five Major Take-home Points
Examples:
Point 1:
• Disasters lead to an
exaggeration of previous
inequities, enhancing the
vulnerability of the mostvulnerable, i.e., children and
women.
•Therefore, development
programmes must be an
integral part of disaster
preparedness and mitigation.
•The undernutrition found in women
and children in Aceh after the tsunami
enhanced their susceptibility to
infectious diseases; surveys showed
that the problem pre-dated the
disaster.
•The marginalised community in Nias
has taken the longest to recover since
the aftershock in March.
•Migrant workers in Thailand, denied
access to public services before the
tsunami, were the hardest hit by the
crisis. Unimmunised children most
vulnerable.
•The poorer members of society are
those now left in barracks and tents in
Aceh.
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Five Major Take-home Points
Examples:
Point 2:
•
•
Immediate response to an
emergency is (almost)
independent of place or
situation – e.g., food, water,
shelter, child protection are
needed in almost all cases.
Immediate assessment and
planning, however, require
knowledge of baseline data:
demographic, economic,
social including health,
nutrition, education, and
infrastructure including
water and sanitation.
•It was impossible to assess early
needs in Aceh as the number of
families, demographic data,
infrastructure was not known. As a
result, supplies were either over- or
under-estimated; location of
populations were difficult to identify,
and percentage affected was
impossible to estimate as the
denominator was not known.
•Ironically, the same was true of
Thailand because of the ‘invisible’
migrant population. Estimates of
dead and missing, lost children and
separated families were hindered if
not impossible to make.
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Five Major Take-home Points
Examples:
Point 3:
•
•
At the onset of a
disaster, most families
are equally needy, but
not all are equally
vulnerable.
In planning a medium
and long-term
response it is important
to identify those who
are most vulnerable.
•Socio-economic differences
began to appear in Aceh after the
first months of relief. The
entrepreneurial class had already
opened up businesses, inventories
were restocked, loans were
secured where needed.
•For the poor – teetering on the
brink before the tsunami – all was
lost; they required more
assistance in identifying and
accessing services and
employment. They can be lost
from the beginning, however, as
beneficiaries are identified in the
early days and remain the same.
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Five Major Take-home Points
Examples:
Point 4:
•
•
Lessons learned are not
really learned until they are
put into action. Education
and ‘messages’ must be
strengthened by rehearsal
and evaluated for effect.
People planning for
disasters are usually
planning according to the
last disaster. There needs to
be more imaginative thinking
about the unexpected and
unpredictable.
•During the July 2006 earthquake
(7.7) and smaller tsunami in central
java, 500 people perished. Many of
them walked out to see what was
causing the receding waters.
•The story of Tilly Smith in Phuket.
•Disaster planning in the Indian
Ocean had been mainly for
earthquake and volcano, not for
tsunami – since it had happened so
rarely.
•Thailand put into practice a wellrehearsed crisis management plan.
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Five Major Take-home Points
Point 5:
•
•
There is a need for a
new paradigm for the
involvement of
communities in their own
response to disasters.
A model is needed where
local people, respected
and empowered as
survivors and not
diminished as ‘victims’,
regroup and reconstruct
their own lives using
available resources.
Examples:
•The massive influx of foreign
‘experts’ into Aceh who were
uneducated in the culture or
history of the province led to
tensions and conflict and delayed
progress.
•In Thailand, the response was led
by Thais – some of them local,
using expertise from other
international and national
agencies.
•The same paradigm of community
ownership has been used for
successful development projects
the world over. We should apply
them to disaster preparedness,
response and mitigatoin.
Survivors …
Photo: S.J.Atwood, IDP Camp, Nias Island, Dec 2005
… not victims
Photo: S.J.Atwood, IDP Camp, Nias Island, Dec 2005
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