North Carolina Hurricane
Evacuation Study
5th Annual ECU/NCEM Hurricane
Workshop
May 28, 2014
Presented by
Jason Glazener – USACE Wilmington District
Bill Massey – Dewberry Consultants LLC
US Army Corps of Engineers
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Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES)
Goal: To provide emergency management officials
sound data that will inform them in hurricane evacuation
planning and decision-making
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2 ®
1-2
2
3-5
•
•
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•
Identify at risk
populations
infrastructure
critical facilities
• Local Planning
data
Transportation Analysis
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Vulnerability Analysis
• Surge Maps
• Evacuation
Zones
• Public Survey
• Analysis of
Survey responses
• results for input
into shelter and
trans analysis
Percentage of Responses
• SLOSH Model
development
• Surge MOMS
Behavioral Analysis
Hazards Analysis
Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES)
• Analysis of traffic
volumes, evac
routes, and
destinations
• Traffic patterns
• Evacuation
Clearance Times
Shadow
Evacuation Zone
A
Overall With Order
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Project Team- North Carolina HES
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USACE
► Jason Glazener, Allan McDuffie- USACE Study Managers
FEMA
► Brandon Bolinski, Hurricane Program Manager-FEMA Region IV
NOAA/NHC
► Jamie Rhome, Chief, Storm Surge Branch-National Hurricane Center
NCEM
► Corey Johnson, Hurricane Program Manager- NCEM
COASTAL COUNTIES
► County EM Coordinators
DEWBERRY CONSULTANTS LLC
► Bill Massey
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North Carolina
Hurricane Evacuation Study Update
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NC HES Update Overview
NC Hazards Analysis
NC Behavioral Analysis
NC Vulnerability Analysis
NC Transportation Analysis
Interactive Technical Data Report
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Proposed Study Schedule
Hazards Analysis- Completed
Behavioral Analysis- Completed
Vulnerability Analysis- Proposed Start- June, 2014
Transportation Analysis- Proposed Start- December 2014
Interactive Technical Data Report- December 2015
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Overview of Scope of Work
Task 1: Hazards Analysis
 New SLOSH Models for North Carolina
► Hatteras
Basin
► Wilmington Basin
► New Storm Surge Maps for 30 Counties
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Carteret County Surge Areas
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Dare County Storm Surge Areas
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New Hanover County Surge Areas
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Pender County Surge Areas
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Brunswick County Surge Areas
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Hyde County Surge Areas
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Pitt County Surge Areas
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Overview of Scope of Work
Task 2: Coordination
 Process:
► Conduct
and document kickoff and final meetings
► Initiate and maintain coordination with stakeholders
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Task 3-Behavioral Analysis
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North Carolina Hurricane
Evacuation Behavioral Analysis
Results presented to NCEM in
January, 2014
CONDUCTED BY:
HAZARDS MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.
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Sample Allocation
East
Southeast
Islands
200
200
Cat 1-2
200
200
Cat 3-5
200
200
Non-surge
150
150
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Behavioral Questionnaire Topics
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Perceived Vulnerability
Housing Characteristics
Expectation of Evacuation Notices
Intentions to Evacuate
Reasons for Leaving
Reasons for Staying
Obstacles to Evacuation
Evacuation Planning
Access to Information
Military Influence
Vehicle Use
Intended Refuge
Location of Refuge
Routes to be Used
Expected Duration of Stay in Refuge
Response in Irene
Response in Earl
Demographics
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Task 4- Vulnerability Analysis
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Vulnerability Analysis
The purpose of this vulnerability analysis is to identify the
areas, populations, and facilities that are potentially
vulnerable to hurricane-induced flooding and wind for the
5 hurricane categories.
The inundation maps (storm hazards atlas) produced by
the USACE for the Hazards Analysis will be used to
determine which surge vulnerable areas may need to be
evacuated in response to a particular coastal storm
threat. The vulnerable population data of those residing
in these areas will be taken from the Transportation
Analysis.
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Vulnerability Analysis
 Process
► Contact all State and county offices that may have such
data
► Compile a county wide GIS data set for All Coastal
Counties
► Determine which facilities could be impacted by the 5
MOM hurricane categories.
► Display data in GIS format showing each facility or point of
interest with all pertinent data contained in the database
► Show the surge area and evacuation zone for each
► Show relationship to the 100 year floodplain
►
Determine if the facility could be impacted by waves.
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Vulnerability Analysis
 Vulnerable Population Calculation
► Each
Hurricane Storm Surge areas (5 SS Categories)
• Population from Latest Census or State Data Base
• Tourist Population
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Vulnerability Analysis
 Vulnerable Structures Calculation
►
Each Hurricane Storm Surge areas (5 SS Categories)
• TYPE:
 Residential
 Commercial
 Industrial
• Mobile homes, permanent, tourist, etc.
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Vulnerability Analysis
Vulnerable Critical Facilities Assessment
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State and locally defined facilities
Database development
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Name
Lat/Long
Facility type
Storm surge category
Evacuation zone
Flood zone
Wave Impact
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Task 5-Transportation Analysis
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Transportation Analysis
Study components:
Demographic and Behavioral Data
Identify Evacuation Roadway Network
Develop Evacuation Zones
Traffic Modelling
Generate Evacuation Statistics
Distribute Evacuation Trips
Identify Evacuating Vehicles by Roadway Segment
Calculate Clearance Times
By storm scenario
Slow, medium, fast response rates
Contraflow benefits
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ITDR
U.S. Army Corps
Of Engineers ®
Wilmington District
Task 6: Interactive
Technical Data
Report (ITDR)
 Process:
►
Prepare a report describing
methodologies, data and
sources of data,
calculations, assumptions,
coordination and degree of
accuracy of the
vulnerability estimates and
any other data pertinent to
this effort.
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ITDR
• Dewberry will prepare all vulnerability data
and maps in a GIS format easily viewed by
local and State emergency managers
• Dewberry will determine what surge area it
is in, what evacuation zone it is in, if it is in
a 100 year floodplain and if it could be
impacted by waves.
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ITDR
 The ITDR will include a GeoPDF
► Adobe
File with GIS-Like Attributes
Benefits—
► Complex geospatial data can be easily distributed in the common
PDF format just about anyone can access and use.
► Utilizes tools people already have and are comfortable using (Adobe
Reader)
► Collaboration on data and updates from remote users are enabled so
that everyone can share data and work with the most accurate
geospatial information
► EMAs spend less time making maps and interpreting them for others
and more time on higher value initiatives
► EMAs can fulfill more data requests with less support while
distributing maps that are more graphical and user-friendly
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North Carolina Hurricane Evacuation
Study
Thank you for your attention.
Do you have any questions?
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