Gordon J. Aubrecht, II
SOS/AAPT, 1 October 2011

Abstract: There are at least nine reasons to have confidence in anthropogenic causes for climate change

This much is obvious to any technical person: Any course of action has costs and benefits. To obtain the benefit, we need to pay the cost. No power plant pollution means no power plants. No power plants means no electricity. No electricity means no modern surgical procedures, no medical diagnostics, no comfortably lighted and cooled homes, etc., all things most people want to have or at least have available to them.

What are the consequences?

North
America ’ s addiction to oil … gets us what?

What has happened to the price of oil? You’ve heard about the price of a barrel going over $140 in summer 2008, then dropping due to the global economic collapse, then …
(prices through September 23rd ’ s posting):
160
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Date
23-
Dec-
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What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
1. ~30 Gt/yr CO
2 increase in CO
2 emissions; 40% concentration since the start of the Industrial
Revolution; Earth is not at 255 K.

US energy flow, 2008. Note the reliance on fossil fuels.

US primary energy consumption by source, 1775-2009
Note the large fossil fuel input starting around 1875.
Now, look at the CO
2 emission graph on the next slide.

Putting this into 10000 year perspective, humans have had a big effect, particularly lately !

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
2. Earth’s stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere is warming.

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
3. Satellite measurements show that less radiation escapes to space.

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
4. Despite “Watts up with that” contention that the weather stations’ location caused the
“apparent” warming, there is no support for the statement.

Watts is a meterologist by training.
Meteorologists have bachelors degrees in communications or in geography.
Climate scientists have Ph.D.s in geophysics or geoscience.

Watts and D’Aleo write: “Around 1990, NOAA began weeding out more than three-quarters of the climate measuring stations around the world. They may have been working under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It can be shown that they systematically and purposefully, country by country, removed higher-latitude, higher-altitude and rural locations, all of which had a tendency to be cooler.”
There is no evidence cited for the “It can be shown.” We have either to take them at their word, or doubt that such evidence exists of a conspiracy. Occam’s Razor suggests the latter explanation.

Watts and D’Aleo do show a picture of temperature monitoring stations. Perhaps they think this is their evidence (it’s several pages away)?

They show multiple pictures of weather stations that might have higher-than-average temperatures being reported. However, they neglect to note or may not know that the stations reports are being monitored not for measured temperature, but rather for temperature anomalies .

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
5. Earth’s temperature is rising, particularly since 1980.

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1880
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980 1985 1990 1995
Year
2000 2005 2010

Here are the individual years and number of months in that year among the 25 warmest (+) or coldest (-). You can see that 1883,
1884, and 1956 were anomalously cold and 1995, 1997-1999, and
2001 onward were anomalously warm.
[I use > 9 months +/- in a year as a measure of anomaly.]
-9
-12
12
9
6
3
0
1880
-3
-6
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Warmest Coldest
1980 1990 2000

Note the blue . It shows the effect of natural emissions .
The IPCC does NOT ignore natural causes as denialists suggest.

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
6. Most continental glaciers are receding. The Greenland Ice
Sheet is melting faster than previously. Arctic sea ice is declining.

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
7. Sea level is rising, and the oceans’ pH is changing.

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
8. Species are moving toward the poles.

Effect on biota :
As air and water temperatures rise, marine species are moving northward, affecting fisheries, ecosystems, and coastal communities that depend on the food source. On average, by 2006, the center of the range for the examined species moved 19 miles north of their 1982 locations.
From Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: A State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global
Change Research Program p.144.

“ Global warming is expected to drive widespread extinctions, but predictions are rarely validated against actual extinctions and by knowledge of causal mechanisms ( 15 ). Sinervo et al . deliver a disturbing message: Climate-forced extinctions are not only in the future but are happening now.
”

What are the reasons for accepting the human
“fingerprint” in climate change?
9. Nights are warming faster than days.

“Information deficit” is not the sole problem science faces. Teacher knowledge of bias and general misunderstanding allows the beginning of effective information exchange. But there is a need to address the issues of complex systems, apparent spatial distance and temporal disjunction, of lack of understanding of timescales, of lack of comprehension of how science works, of the limits of technology to deal with the problems of climate change, of dealing with set mental models (my other talk). Having science teachers cognizant of these conceptual issues can help them deal more effectively with student and public understanding.

The Evidence … recapitulated
1. ~30 Gt/yr CO
2 emissions; 40% increase in CO
2 concentration since the start of the Industrial Revolution; Earth is not at 255 K.
2. Earth’s stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere is warming.
3. Satellite measurements show that less radiation escapes to space.
4. Despite “Watts up with that” contention that the weather stations’ location caused the “apparent” warming, there is no support for the statement.
5. Earth’s temperature is rising, particularly since 1980.
6. Most continental glaciers are receding. The Greenland Ice
Sheet is melting faster than previously. Arctic sea ice is declining.
7. Sea level is rising, and the oceans’ pH is changing.
8. Species are moving toward the poles.
9. Nights are warming faster than days.