ESPA Net / RECWOWE Conference
Development of Work and Welfare Reform in European Societies
University of Hamburg, Centre for Globalisation and Governance
Oct. 5-6, 2007.
Conceptualizing
Welfare State Change
Jørgen Goul Andersen
Aalborg University
1. Welfare states do change
2. The independent variable problem:
What determines change
3. Some popular accounts of change:
Pierson, Hall
4. Level of change: Paradigm/ discourse,
policy, institutions, outcomes
5. Direction of change
6. Dynamics and degree of change
7. Policy feedback
8. Convergence or divergence
1. Welfare states do change
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Political institutionalism: Veto point literature
- variations in political institutions
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"Policy institutionalism", Path dependence
- the problem of distinguishing between policy and institutions
- status quo bias
- vested interests; asymmetry
- normative institutionalism: socialisation effects
- behavioural adaptations and lock-in effects
- practical/ administrative costs of change
- political costs of change
- re-interpretation of path dependence as dynamic
phenomenon
negative feedback model (static)
positive feedback model (dynamic)
martingale model
- path dependence: perspective or theory
("mechanisms")
explaining the past and explaining the future
timing as an essential phenomenon
2. The independent variable problem: What determines
change
* Functionalism/ neo-functionalism (and economics):
Economic (social) necessity
* Political power struggle
- class project model
- patchwork model
* Ideational factors
- paradigm shift
- policy learning/ social learning
- policy diffusion/ policy transfer
- agenda setting, framing
* Institutional dynamics
* Deep equilibria
3. Some popular accounts of change:
Pierson, Hall
• Pierson: Retrenchment, restructuring
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- cost containment
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- recalibration
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- recommodification
Problem: Recalibration can be anything.
Considered non-transformative
Peter Hall:
- first order change: Change of settings
- second order change: Change of instruments
- third order change: Change of paradigms
Problem:
(1) Weak correspondence with outcomes.
What if Unempl. Benefits is reduced by 50 per cent?
What if duration is shortened by 50 per cent?
Are these changes “first order”?
(2) Transformative changes can be
- incremental or even silent revolutions
- consensual
4. Level of change: Paradigm/ discourse, policy,
institutions, outcomes
Paradigm / coordination discourse
Policy
Institutions
- correspondence with theoretical notions of the welfare state
institutions / welfare regimes / principles
insurance / risk management (pooling, coverage)
welfare mix / welfare pluralism
- market
- state
- family
- voluntary associations
- social responsibility of firms
- social partners
Outcomes
- immediate policy impact (e.g. on those who are activated)
- impact on broader social indicators (citizenship, poverty)
In the final analysis, impact on citizenship is decisive
Danish ALMP.
1989-1992: Changing paradigms/discourse
1993-2001: Changing policies
2001-2007: Changing outcomes
Eight possible combinations of states and
markets:
• who decides/ regulates
• who finances
• who delivers
5. Direction of change
More or less
- retrenchment
- recommodification
- targeting
Liberalization
Marketization ("generous recommodification")
- activation of social protection (incentives)
- new public management
Changing principles / regime shift
Changed risk pooling
Changed division of labour
Activation of social protection
Social investment state
Active citizenship
Activation regimes (social democratic activation / workfare)
6. Dynamics of change
punctuated equilibrium model (Baumgartner & Jones 1993)
(Deterministic) Path dependence & path breaking
incremental vs. abrupt change
transformative change vs. continuity
Transformative capacity of incremental change (Streeck/Thelen 2005)
- Layering (New scheme added to existing ones; new pillar)
- Drift (Institutions don’t change – but context does!)
- Conversion (Institutions redirected to new goals)
(New Institutionalism: Institutions matter! Question: How much?)
7. Policy feedback
Functional equivalence can be stable or unstable
- changing interest configuration
- policy learning/ social learning
- policy diffusion/ policy transfer
8. Convergence or divergence
Functionalism - convergence
Institutionalism – divergence
convergence
divergence
persistent differences
parallel trends, persistent diversity