Kenya & R2P Great Decisions, February 13, 2010 KENYA'S ETHNIC GROUPS Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups KENYA: Context • Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups; • Kikuyu largest but not majority (22%), traditionally dominant, converted to Christianity, western education, partners with British colonial rule; • Mau Mau, strong role in governing, left Kikuyu as dominant group at independence KENYA: Event OUTLINE OF EVENTS: • 1990: multiparty riots, donor demands for liberalization; • 1992, 1997: election violence; • 2002: Kibaki wins presidency, with Odinga’s support; some election violence; • December 2007: election, Raila Odinga was leading by 1.2 mil votes when Mwai Kibaki’s reelection victory was announced; – (Opposition 99 seats in Parliament, President’s party 43 seats) • Tampering immediately denounced by international observers; • Immediately, rioting begins across the nation; Luo in west, Kalenjin in central highlands; Kikuyu response violent, with little control by police, army; – ~1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced. ~ethnic cleansing? KENYA: Mediation Regional Authorities, Moral Authority & Respected Leaders: • Pressure from Desmond Tutu, other African leaders, including Tanzania leaders; • AU requested mediation by Kofi Annan • Team: Annan, Benjamin Mkapa (Tanz), Graca Machel (Mozambique & S.Africa) • Support for settlement from donors & allies Power Sharing Agreement • Post of Prime Minister with real powers created; • Two deputy PMs, one from each party, protected from arbitrary dismissal; • Results? Violence ended; systematic changes have not been made, Odinga’s supporters few gains, • tensions remain R2P? • Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to Annan; • Destruction & disintegration in Region (Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan) created a sense of Urgency; • R2P an implicit, not explicit issue What is R2P? • A recently developed concept in IR which attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities toward its own population, and to codify the circumstances which justify humanitarian intervention • Includes violence, especially war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity Issues? • State Sovereignty • UN Charter: “Domestic Jurisdiction” • Eroding distinction between International and Domestic issues • Failure of most attempts to “internationalize” domestic policy • Obstacles to “peace keeping” and humanitarian intervention Obstacles to Humanitarian Intervention: • Institutional Obstacles – Neutrality of IGO – suspicion of interveners’ motives – “Will” of members – Cost, in money and political capital Obstacles, cont’d • Pragmatic Obstacles – Uncertainty re: actual situation – Local assistance – Numbers of refugees, incidence of disease or famine – Resources: remote areas & supply lines language skilled workers Where does this leave us with R2P?