Presented at the: Australasian Forest & Wood Products Conferences: Residues to Revenues. Rotorua, October 12-13 and Melbourne, October 17-18, 2005. Quantifying the availability and volume of the forest resides resource B.Hock, P.Nielsen, S.Grigolato, J.Firth, B.Moeller, T.Evanson Scion, Rotorua, New Zealand Dept of Land and Agricultural and Forest Systems, University of Padua, Italy Dept of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark Logging residues for energy production Energy prices are increasing Interest is growing in the use of in-forest residues as a sustainable energy resource Consider woody biofuel as a forest product • Assess the volume available • Optimise the logistic of the supply chain • Minimise the supply cost Biomass supply from forest plantations Two models are being developed National availability and cost supply model Within-forest ” ” ” ” ” National availability and cost supply model Model overview The location of forests, the transportation network, possible cogen plant locations and other spatial issues are mapped. The information is analysed within raster GIS. Techniques include cell-to-cell functions, neighborhood statistics and zonal geometry. The results are intensity maps or distributions of site-specific costs. National availability and cost supply model Calculating the transport cost The accumulated travel distance from a point location determines the transportation costs along the road network to that point. This example visualizes the cost of transportation across a region. Estimated annual forest residue availability TLA National availability and cost supply model Costs of biomass at site The site-specific amount and cost of biomass are calculated by overlaying in-forest residues and transport costs. The result is a distribution of biomass amounts and costs, which is unique for each location relative to a planned bioenergy plant. Availability and cost of residues at 4 locations Within forest availability and cost supply model A model was developed in collaboration with Carter Holt Harvey Forests Ltd. The case study was based on the Kinleith Forest, in the North Island of New Zealand, complimented by National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) regional yield tables Biofuel as a product: some issues Logging residues are unevenly distributed geographically and in time Volume of residues at landings is influenced by the characteristics of the logging operation (eg. harvesting methods, equipment capacity, terrain characteristics) Extraction of residues is affected by road types and density The within-forest chain Volume at harvest Residue at landings Transportation of residue to hogger Chipping by hogger Transportation of chips to cogen Volume and cost at cogen plant Methodology The within-forest availability and cost supply model The components: Calculate potential amount of logging residue Assign logging residue to landings Select hogger site locations Determine transportation network Minimise overall costs Logging residue availability Forest Database Investigate variables that affect availability forest stand data topography NEWLAND_CU REGIME_ID TENDING_OP NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104795 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104796 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104795 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236743:CF,28,3104794 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236743:CF,26,3239770 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104795 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104795 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104796 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104796 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236777:CF,28,3104794 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236777:CF,27,3104793 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004192,P.RAD:WT,5,287,3004934:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004611:PR,7,291,5.0,.,3004610:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104796 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236777:CF,26,3239767 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004191,P.RAD:WT,5,300,3004933:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004609:PR,7,293,5.0,.,3004608:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104790 NL 2004 :PL,1983,.,3004191,P.RAD:WT,5,300,3004933:PR,6,300,3.0,.,3004609:PR,7,293,5.0,.,3004608:MS,20,3281268:CF,27,3104790 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236777:CF,26,3239767 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236778:CF,26,3239767 NL 2004 :PL,1978,.,3004190,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004607:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004606:WT,8,367,3004932:PR,8,272,6.0,.,3004605:MS,20,3036797:MS,24,3236778:CF,27,3104793 NL 2004 :PL,1976,.,3004196,P.RAD:PR,5,500,2.0,.,3004614:PR,7,350,4.0,.,3004613:PR,8,252,6.0,.,3004612:PT,13,375,3004939:PT,14,375,3004938:MS,26,3222280:CF,28,3035630 1>>> NewField as integer (long) = TSV_mc_ha NEFD Database 2>>> VBA function dim TSV_mc_ha as integer If [cf] = "40" Then TSV_mc_ha = 993 if [cf] = "39" Then TSV_mc_ha = 908 If [cf] = "38" Then TSV_mc_ha = 883 If [cf] = "37" Then TSV_mc_ha = 856 if [cf] = "36" Then TSV_mc_ha = 830 If [cf] = "35" Then TSV_mc_ha = 799 If [cf] = "34" Then TSV_mc_ha = 774 if [cf] = "33" Then TSV_mc_ha = 745 If [cf] = "32" Then TSV_mc_ha = 715 If [cf] = "31" Then TSV_mc_ha = 688 if [cf] = "30" Then TSV_mc_ha = 656 If [cf] = "29" Then TSV_mc_ha = 626 If [cf] = "28" Then TSV_mc_ha = 592 if [cf] = "27" Then TSV_mc_ha = 562 If [cf] = "26" Then TSV_mc_ha = 530 If [cf] = "25" Then TSV_mc_ha = 495 if [cf] = "24" Then TSV_mc_ha = 463 If [cf] = "23" Then TSV_mc_ha = 428 If [cf] = "22" Then TSV_mc_ha = 394 if [cf] = "21" Then TSV_mc_ha = 360 If [cf] = "20" Then TSV_mc_ha = 326 If [cf] = "19" Then TSV_mc_ha = 290 if [cf] = "18" Then TSV_mc_ha = 256 If [cf] = "17" Then TSV_mc_ha = 241 If [cf] = "16" Then TSV_mc_ha = 218 if [cf] = "15" Then TSV_mc_ha = 196 If [cf] = "14" Then TSV_mc_ha = 304 If [cf] = "13" Then TSV_mc_ha = 278 if [cf] = "12" Then TSV_mc_ha = 252 If [cf] = "11" Then TSV_mc_ha = 226 If [cf] > "40" Then TSV_mc_ha = 995 if [cf] < "11" Then TSV_mc_ha = 0 Approximate the volume of logging residue for the next 17 years. forest productivity data Logging residue availability NEFD Database Kinleith Database Forest stand data calculation Silvicultural Regime • analysis • only radiata pine considered Area • year of establishment • tending history • proposed felling year Total Recoverable Volume (TRV) • • • • import yield tables to GIS calculate block area evaluate the TRV for each block determine the logging residue for each block Logging residue availability TRV m3/ha Logging residues Volume m3/ha Drying period 1 year Logging residues Weight tonne/ha Residue calculation As percentage of TRV (Depends on logging method) Volume (m3) * 0.75 t/m3 = weight (tonnes) Logging residue availability Total Recoverable Volume (m3/year) Yearly average: 943 000 m3 TRV 1600000 volume, cubic meter/year Results 1800000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 year Logging residue availability (tonnes/year) 50000 45000 3% 4% 40000 35000 tonnes/year Yearly average: 21 500 - 28 200 tonnes 2006 2005 0 30000 25000 20000 15000 5000 year 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 2005 Yearly average per hectare: 0.6 tonnes/ha - 0.8 tonnes/ha 10000 Logging residue availability Results The graph shows how availability varies over time. 45000 4% 3% 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 year 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 2005 tonnes/year For example, there are two periods when supply falls below 10,000 tonnes per year. 50000 Assigning logging residue to landings To calculate logging residue at each landing: •locate landings (12 700) •define the catchment area for each landing •overlay the logging residue •sum the logging residue for each landing •repeat for each year Assigning logging residue to landings Location of landings with assigned residues 2006 2007 2008 Residues (red dots) vary over time and across the forest Location of hogger sites GIS – based analysis Reclassify roads according to their carrying capacity Road type Capability Hogger site Public Chips No Forest sealed or unsealed Residue or chips Yes Forest stub or track Residue No Location of hogger sites Selection criteria: •Must be associated with roads suitable for chip trucks •Must have a minimum area of 5000 m2 Location of hogger sites Selection criteria •Must be no closer than 20km to adjacent hogger sites Superskid sites - 40 Superskid sites - 15 Transportation network Network analysis to determine the minimum cost route between each landing and the hogger sites Similarly for the routes between hogger sites and cogen plant Minimum cost calculations Define variables: Maximum distance between landing and hogger site Minimum residues at landing Run minimum cost calculation Insert data Define scenarios Perform calculation results Results Supply distance Logging residue Year 2006 Logging residue Llandings Distance Supply Cost Year 2007 Logging residue Llandings Distance Supply Cost Year 2008 Logging residue Llandings Distance Supply Cost Variables: maximum distance 8000 m – 9000 m residue at landing >0 in intervals of 12.5 tonne 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.7 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.0 30.9 100 18122 296 1749 31.845 13832 149 1056 31.826 17002 374 2069 31.646 10954 220 1479 31.086 cost, $/tonne cost, $/tonne legend 0 8000 50 0 20 40 60 min. logging residues, tonne 80 100 0 9000 50 m tonnes 100 6304 47 575 31.856 22820 510 3006 31.917 17044 172 1250 31.930 8508 58 668 32.100 tonnes n° km $/tonnes 12568 136 977 31.706 5749 41 532 31.826 20554 432 2562 31.736 15297 154 1132 31.771 7384 47 585 31.848 tonnes n° km $/tonnes 8504 85 769 30.965 3855 25 480 31.266 13638 258 1803 31.128 10605 102 914 31.067 5180 32 540 31.189 tonnes n° km $/tonnes 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.7 31.6 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.0 0 20 40 60 min. logging residues, tonne 80 100 Conclusions • the availability of residue depends not only on volume, but also on the transportation cost to the power plant • a large number of variables need to be considered including drying, in–forest logging distribution, transport and chipping techniques • GIS based models are effective tools for Decision Support Systems (DSS)