Climate change and health in
Ireland: a vulnerability assessment
Trinity International Development Initiative
Dr. Elizabeth Cullen
10th November 2011
‘Every doctor should know what to expect of
the weather’
Hippocrates 400 B.C
Summary of presentation
• Climate change
• Impacts on health
• Conclusions
Source: Hadley Centre 2005
Source: Hadley Centre 2005
1.5
Temperature anomaly (1961-1990) oC
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1890
1900
Ireland_anomaly
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
10 year moving average(global)
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
10 year moving average(Ireland)
Climate model
• A climate model is a numerical
representation of the climate system and
combines known laws of physics with
factors such as climatic parameters and
atmospheric factors to compute the
evolving state of the climate in response
to the changing composition of the
atmosphere (Ebi 2004)
Impacts of climate change on
health in Ireland
• Temperature related mortality
• Food-borne disease
• Water-borne disease
• Vector-borne diseases
• Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin
cancer
Mortality rate per 100,000
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
-7
1
7
13
Mean temperature
20
• Reductions in mortality, particularly from
cardiovascular and respiratory mortality,
and principally in the over 75 age group
Future changes in temperature
related mortality
2010 - 39
% Change in
-1.0
mortality
(-0.4 - 2.3)
2040 - 69
2070 - 99
-2.1
(-1.2 - 3.5)
-4.3
(-2.1 - 6.9)
Temperature
Mortality rate
Mortality rate per 10,000 and temperature in degrees Celsius
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Days
Foodborne disease
Incidence of salmonella per week per 100,000
0.5
Observed
Quadratic
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
5
10
Mean temperature
15
20
Cases
15
Observed
Linear
12
9
6
3
0
2
5
8
10
12
Mean temperature
15
18
Cases of campylobacter
60
Observed
Cubic
50
40
30
20
0
5
10
15
Mean temperature
20
25
Foodborne disease
For every 1 degree rise in mean
temperature:
• Salmonella 8% rise
• Campylobacter 6% rise
• VTEC 6% rise
Water-borne disease
“”Water
quality is only of importance to you
if you use a tap or a toilet”
Boyden, 2006
Climate change and rainfall in
Ireland
• Wide-spread reduction in rain in East and SouthEast
• Increase in winter rain in the West
• Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area
and persist for longer periods of time.
Water quality and health
: a multi-factorial issue
Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-organisms
Increased run-off and flooding
VTEC and cryptosporidiosis
Water treatment plants need urgent attention
Flooding
No warning
Night time
Cold
• Immediate
• Mortality, trauma, pollution
• Delayed
•
Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections,
dampness, asthma
Psychological
Reduced water supplies
Increased demand for water
Population increases in the East
Warmer temperatures
Increased use of surface water
Decreased efficiency of treatment plants
EU Water Framework Directive
• To achieve ‘good status’ for all water
bodies by 2015
• New Drinking Water Regulations – will
result in improved drinking water quality
‘Safe water cannot be taken for granted’.
(Wall 2001)
Other indirect effects
Malaria and Lyme disease
Skin cancer
Allergies
Summary of findings
• Less temperature related mortality
• Increase in food-borne disease
• Increase in water-borne disease
• Change in vector-borne diseases
• Increase in skin cancer
• Change in timing and location of
allergic diseases
Recommendations
• Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register
• Food hygiene
• WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public
•
health issues
Education re exposure to sun
Africa
• Increase heat stress and drought -human
and animal mortality
• Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and
South Africa and decrease in Central Africa
• Changes in tsetse fly distribution
• Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa meningitis belt
• Increased flooding in Eastern Africa
Drought Zambia 2002
Photo 2002 Richard
Lord / UMCOR
• The most important challenge is the
limited capacity for research and
adaptation in low- and middle-income
countries”
•
IPCC Fourth Report 2007
Conclusion
• Imbalance between human activity and
environment diminish life support systems
• Climate is a life supporting system
• We need to address the causes
“We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the
only planet we have”.
Douglas Kennedy 2006
• I would like to acknowledge a debt of
gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and
Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of
Geography, NUI Maynooth
• Environmental Protection Agency
• Thank you