Climate change : A research
Agenda
Camilla Toulmin IIED
Dublin
November 10th 2011
IIED: Thumbnail sketch
 Established 1971
 Non-profit policy “think and do” tank
 Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable
world, using evidence, action and influence in
partnership with others
 90+ people London and Edinburgh
 Turnover 2011 £20m
Actors
Knowledge
Space
s
What we know about climate change
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CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC
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Warming of climate system
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Systematic change in rainfall in most regions
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Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise
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Loss of arctic sea ice extent
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More intense & extreme weather events
Africa - Water and rainfall
 Much more intense water cycle
 Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and
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Southern Africa)
Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa)
Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa
Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women
and girls worst hit
Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs
irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers
By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress
HADLEY
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Africa - Food and farming
 Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of
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50% by 2020
Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water
flooding and salinisation
Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, croplivestock relations
In very few areas, increased temp brings longer
growing season, improved farming conditions
Major shifts in land productivity and values eg.
irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands
Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk
and uncertainty
 Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk
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and uncertainty?
Diversification
Farmland and crop contracts
Insurance
Collective mechanisms
Lessons from adaptation to drought
Community based adaptation: building local
innovation systems
Kilimo Salama process
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Re-greening the Sahel
Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity
 Poor depend most on environmental
assets + ecosystem services
 Economic value of current rate of loss
estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year
 Increased stress from changes in temp,
rainfall accelerate losses
 Thresholds and tipping points
Cities and climate change
 Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in
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middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of
Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape
Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai
95% global population growth in next 30 years will
take place in cities in developing world
Slums 50%+ of urban population and most
vulnerable to flooding + land slides
Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 510% of GDP
Current focus on low C investment needs to
complement adaptation for most vulnerable
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
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30,000,000
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Urban Population in the LECZ
Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone
Politics, conflict and security
 Climate change brings significant political
consequences due to uneven impact, winners
and losers – globally, regionally, within
countries
 Large scale migration, impoverishment,
people seeking new land bring potential for
conflict and security
 Especially where guns widespread, young
men without jobs, limited government
capacity = political opportunism
Unintended consequences of climate
policy
 Large scale land acquisitions – food and
biofuels – environmental and social
costs
New market opportunities?
 Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions –
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can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C
market?
 Defining/measuring C service
 Minimising transaction costs
 Risks of smallholder evictions
REDD+ funding
 Defining/measuring C service
 Managing the funds
 Risks of smallholder evictions
Lots of questions…..
 What does climate resilient development look
like?
 What best means to support adaptation –
funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is
key, how to support this?
 Any positive opportunities from climate
change available to poor?
 Does financial crisis make progress easier or
harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?
 What impact $200/b oil on agriculture,
transport, trade?