Population and Employment Trends in the
South: Rural Renaissance or Urban Sprawl?
Mitch Renkow
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
North Carolina State University
Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s
• In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as
urban counties, while in others rural population
growth lagged
Population Growth in the South, 1990 - 2000
State
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
VA
WV
Rural
Counties
9.2%
9.4%
25.2%
18.5%
8.6%
3.6%
7.5%
16.0%
6.0%
13.2%
16.7%
10.2%
-0.2%
Metro
Counties
10.5%
19.1%
23.4%
30.2%
10.9%
6.7%
17.6%
24.3%
12.2%
15.9%
16.6%
15.8%
2.3%
All
Counties
10.1%
13.7%
23.5%
26.4%
9.7%
5.9%
10.5%
21.4%
9.7%
15.1%
16.7%
14.5%
0.8%
Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s
• In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as
urban counties, while in others rural population
growth lagged
• 13% of counties in the South experienced population
decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties, and most
of those were not adjacent to metro counties
Southern Counties Losing
Population in the 1990s
State
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
VA
WV
No. of Counties
12
20
0
8
14
14
13
3
20
4
0
11
27
%
17.9
26.7
0.0
5.0
11.7
21.9
15.9
3.0
26.0
8.7
0.0
10.5
49.1
Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s
• In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as
urban counties, while in others rural population
growth lagged
• 13% of counties in the South experienced population
decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties
• Most rural population growth occurred in counties
adjacent to urban areas
• Most population growth in remote rural counties
associated with retirement communities, tourism
Net Migration in the 1980s and 1990s
4,500
1980 - 1990
4,000
1990 - 2000
‘000 migrants
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Metro Counties
-500
Rural Counties
-1,000
All Counties
Net Migration in the 1990s by State
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
AL
AR
GA
KY
-100,000
MS
NC
OK
SC
LA
Rural Counties
Metro Counties
TN
WV
Commuters’ Share of the Workforce in 2000
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Rural Counties
In-Commuters
Metro Counties
All Counties
Out-Commuters
Commuters’ Share of the Workforce by State
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
FL
AR
OK
AL
NC
In-Commuters
TN
SC
LA
KY
WV
MS
Out-Commuters
GA
VA
Distance Traveled by Inter-county
Commuters in the South in 2000
Distance
(miles)
0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
50 - 60
60 - 70
70 - 80
> 80
No. of
Commuters
(‘000)
% of
Commuters
875
2,288
3,460
1,154
392
166
102
54
332
9.9
25.9
39.2
13.1
4.4
1.9
1.2
0.6
3.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Trends in Commuting
• Steady increases in the mobility of workers due to:
-- Falling transportation costs
-- Growing numbers of dual income households
-- Increased importance of residential amenities
• Significant growth in rural-urban commuting,
especially in rural counties located near cities
Rural population growth strongly linked to
expanding of urban labor markets
Allocation of New Jobs among Different
Kinds of Workers in North Carolina
Kind of
Workers
Jobs in Rural
Counties
Jobs in Metro
Counties
New in-commuters
32.4%
51.5%
Previous out-commuters
37.3%
28.4%
Previously unemployed
1.7%
1.7%
New residents
28.7%
18.5%
Whether or not these phenomena are common in
other Southern states is an open question . . .
Issues Associated with Population Growth
• Economic impacts
-- Jobs
-- Housing prices
• Demands for public goods and services
-- Who pays?
-- Who benefits?
• Land use planning
-- Farmland conversion
-- Zoning
•
Culture clashes
Conclusions
• Continued increases in “suburbanization” likely in
rural counties adjacent to urban areas
• Increasing strains on local public finances in rural
counties
• Farmland conversion issues aren’t going away
• Land use planning becoming more important than ever