Education, Equity
& the Economy
Findings from State of the South 2004
Sarah Rubin, Senior Associate
MDC Inc.
RCCA Conference -- October 2004
Big Trends
 The South's population is changing.
 The South's economy is changing.
 High school education is changing – and it
needs to.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Demographic and
Economic Trends
South’s Population: More Diverse
Population Change by Age and Race, South 1990-2000
120,961
255,780
1,242,477
65+
695,636
4,058,333
1,026,464
Age
45-64
373,138
2,130,985
954,059
20-44
1,665,564
955,730
714,154
Under 20
1,000,000
0
Black
Hispanic
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Non-Hispanic White, other races, and people of more than one race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Children in Poverty, 2000
30%
26% 26%
24%
25%
20%
22% 22%
22%
19%
17%
20%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
15%
12%
10%
5%
0%
US
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
TX
VA WV
Source: Kids Count / U.S. Census
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
More Offices, Fewer Factories
Percent Employed by Occupation, South 1990 & 2000
19%
17%
13%
11%
14% 15%
16%
13%
15%
12%
10% 11%
11%
9%
7% 6%
1990
Transportation
& material
moving
Production
Construction,
extraction, &
maintenance
Farming,
fishing, &
forestry
Office &
admin support
Sales
Service
Professional
& related
1% 1%
Management,
business, &
finance
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Fast-Growing Occupations Require
Education Beyond High School
Education
level
% of all
jobs, 2000
% of new
jobs, 20002010
Projected
rate of
growth
Mean
earnings,
2000
BA+
21%
29%
22%
$56,500
2-year
degree or
certificate
8%
13%
24%
$35,700
Workrelated
training
71%
58%
12%
$26,000
Source: BLS Monthly Labor Review, Nov. 2001
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Less-Educated Men: Falling Behind
U.S. Earnings by Educational Attainment, Men Age 18+,
1975 and 2001
$70,000
$63,354
$60,000
$51,873
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$34,482
$35,568$37,429
1975
2001
$32,363
$25,818
$21,508
$20,000
$10,000
$0
<HS
Source: Postsecondary Ed Opportunity, March 2003
(based on CPS data)
HS
Some college
BA
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Squeezed in a Vise
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
How Well Are High Schools Preparing
Youth for the Future Economy?
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
The Muddled Middle
 Two clear pathways out of high school:


Further education and career.
Disconnection from society and opportunity.
 Muddled middle, filled with young people for
whom high school fails to provide direction or
motivation.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Enrollment Up in Advanced Math
Percent of HS students taking at least one upper-level math course
(Algebra II or above), 1999-2000
70%
61%
60%
51%
52%
46%
50%
40%
55%
53%
56%
56%
TX
WV
43%
34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
AL
AR
KY
LA
MS
NC
OK
TN
Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher
Education, Measuring Up 2002.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Advanced Placement Widespread
Percent of Public HS's Offering AP Courses, 2002
100%
94%
93%
86%
90%
87%
82%
75%
80%
71%
70% 65%
56%
60%
73%
61%
50%
36% 36%
40%
34%
30%
24%
20%
10%
0%
US
AL
Source: SREB
AR
FL GA KY
LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
More Minorities and Women
Going to College
In Southern colleges and universities:
 Black enrollment rose 48% during the 1990s.
 Hispanic enrollment rose 70%.
 Women’s enrollment has risen steadily since
the late 1970s.
 White male enrollment dropped slightly in the
1990s.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Achievement Gap Persists
State
All
Students
White
Black
Hispanic
AL
22%
30%
9%
-
AR
27%
33%
6%
-
FL
27%
37%
11%
25%
GA
26%
36%
12%
19%
KY
34%
36%
14%
16%
LA
22%
33%
9%
-
MS
21%
32%
9%
-
NC
29%
38%
13%
15%
OK
30%
34%
13%
17%
SC
24%
35%
10%
-
TN
26%
32%
9%
-
TX
26%
39%
14%
14%
VA
36%
44%
15%
31%
WV
25%
25%
13%
-
US
30%
39%
12%
14%
2003 NAEP 8th Grade Reading
Scores by Race/Ethnicity:
Percent Who Scored
Proficient or Higher
(Percents in blue are at or above
the US average)
Source: NCES Reading Highlights 2003.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Too Few High School Graduates
Public High School Graduation Rates, 2001
70%
US
WV
VA
TX
TN
SC
OK
NC
MS
LA
KY
GA
FL
AR
AL
40%
84%
74%
67%
60%
57%
77%
63%
64%
70%
71%
56%
56%
75%
66%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Source: Jay P. Greene and Greg Forster, "Public High School
Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the U.S., Education
Working Paper No. 3," Center for Civic Innovation at the Manhattan
Institute, September 2003.
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Attainment: Race, Ethnic Gaps
Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and
Race/Ethnicity, 2000: Less than High School or BA+
50%
46%
45%
<HS
40%
BA+
35%
31%
30%
25%
25%
23% 22%
18%
20%
13%
15%
12%
10%
5%
0%
Source: U.S. Census
Total
White
Black
Hispanic
NOTE: "White" is non-Hispanic white.
"Black" is defined by the Census category "black alone"
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Attainment: Metro/Nonmetro
Southern Adults Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and
Metro/Nonmetro, 2000: Less than High School or BA+
30%
28%
25%
22%
20%
15%
15%
14%
<HS
BA+
10%
5%
0%
Metro
Nonmetro
Source: March 2000 CPS
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Drift Into Resegregation
Percentage of Southern Black Students
in Majority-White Schools, 1954-2001
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1954
Source: Brown at Fifty: King's Dream or Plessy's
Nightmare? Gary Orfield and Chungmei Lee, Harvard Civil
Rights Project, January 2004.
1970
1988
2001
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Schools: Levers for Change
Today, education is
perhaps the most
important function of
state and local
governments… It is the
very foundation of good
citizenship.
– US Supreme Court, 1954
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Four Challenges
 Sustained prosperity requires more people
with higher skills and education beyond high
school.
 Young population is increasingly Latino and
African American.
 Many low-income youth attend isolated,
resource-poor schools.
 High schools fail to engage and inspire many
students, regardless of income and race.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Levers for Change
1. Move beyond seat time and test scores.
2. Provide multiple pathways to opportunity.
3. Connect adults and adolescents.
4. Eliminate high-poverty schools.
5. Recognize the primacy of teaching.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
1.Beyond Seat Time & Test Scores
 Ensure that all young people graduate from
high school prepared for further education.
 Align high school curriculum and standards
with requirements of the emerging economy
and postsecondary education.
 Extend literacy instruction through high
school.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
2. Provide Multiple Pathways
 Offer training for skilled occupations – Career and
Technical Education.
 Provide accelerated learning options – AP courses,
dual-enrollment.
 Create blended institutions – Early College High
Schools.
 Establish Career Academies.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
3. Connect Adults and Adolescents
 Guidance counselors are powerful
connectors.
 High schools need strong connections to
communities.


Adult mentors.
Businesses and work-based learning.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
4. Eliminate High-Poverty Schools
 Race matters, income matters more.
 No school should have a high concentration
of students living in poverty.
 Where entire districts are poor, states must
provide resources and encourage
regionalism.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
5.No Substitute for Strong
Teaching
 Develop a corps of superbly trained, well-paid, professional
teachers.
 Identify and train new teachers.
 Retain incumbent teachers and expand professional
development opportunities.
 Break up systematic assigning of vulnerable teachers to
vulnerable schools.
 Offer pay, housing, tax, and other incentives to attract
experienced principals and teachers to vulnerable schools.
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
Questions
 How well do these recommendations match
the needs in your community or region?
 What can rural community colleges do to put
more young people on a path to college?
 Does your state have any promising
initiatives to reform high school education?
How are community colleges involved?
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org
For More Information
Sarah Rubin
MDC Inc.
P.O. Box 17268, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-7268
(919) 968-4531
srubin@mdcinc.org
State of the South 2004 can be downloaded or ordered
from MDC’s website (www.mdcinc.org)
State of the South 2004 – © MDC Inc. – www.mdcinc.org