GRASSROOTS REVIVAL:
IS THE CONSERVATIVE
CONSTITUENCY CAMPAIGN
MACHINE WORKING AGAIN?
RON JOHNSTON
and CHARLES PATTIE
POST-MODERN CAMPAIGNING ERA
(Fisher and Denver)
• Greater focus on marginal constituencies
• Greater use of ‘modern’ techniques
• More likely to involve a ‘long campaign’
• Greater central ‘direction’
BUT
Still need local activists (party members) and
money raised locally – though latter
increasingly aided by central grants etc.
SO ARE THEY GETTING READY?
September 26, 2008, Financial Times
‘Activists primed for victory, says
Pickles’
HEADQUARTERS GRANTS TO
‘TARGET’ SEATS
2005 – Bearwood Corporate Services (i.e.
Lord Ashcroft) made 88 substantial grants
(totalling £667,165) to 57 separate
constituency parties; had an electoral impact
Post-Howard: Ashcroft part of central party
organisation – giving money to party centrally
(£275,000 in 2007) and leading programme of
grants to target seats
CENTRAL GRANTS 2007
58 separate grants, totalling £675,679
Distribution:
<£5,000
22 (1 multi-constituency)
£5,000-9,999
6
£10,000-19,999
21 (2 multi-constituency)
£20,000<
9 (2 multi-constituency)
By ‘estimated’ 2005 result
13 that would have been won by
Conservatives, 27 Labour and 13 LibDem
INCOME 2006-2007
2006
Min
10th
25th
Med
75th
90th
Max
N
3,350
22,991
30,444
48,226
75,142
111,268
433,353
306
2007
Non-Target
17,040
30,144
39,263
54,756
84,935
122,130
480,456
270
2007
Target
22,965
28,247
38,829
53,650
75,134
104,085
124,784
61
INCOME CHANGE (2007-2006)
Min
10th
25th
Med
75th
90th
Max
N
All
Non-Target Target
-103,313 -103,313
-5,952
-6,658
-9,455
1,246
-363
-2,081
9,428
6,063
4,069
19,119
17,818
13,367
33,228
36,793
30,123
46,965
131,015
131,015
56,871
306
250
56
WHERE DO THEY RAISE INCOME?
SEATS ‘WON’ IN 2005
Margin
S
Data
2007 (£)
Change (£)
0-5
42
42
72,603
9,727 (39)
5-10
34
34
61,507
3,390 (33)
10-15
62
62
80,503
3,583 (56)
15-20
42
42
79,606
3,796 (41)
20+
10
10
92,059
15,049 (10)
S- number of seats; Data – seats with income data
2007; Change – for seats with data 2006 and 2007
(number in brackets)
AND IN SEATS THAT THEY ‘LOST’?
Margin
0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20+
Seats
74
86
85
73
103
Data
54
38
17
7
3
Income
2007 (£)
58,270
45,499
54,728
40,221
43,971
2007 MEAN INCOME IN TARGET SEATS
(SINGLE CONSTITUENCY TARGETS ONLY)
Margin
0-5
Seats ‘won’ in 2005
N
11
Income (£)
77,810
Seats ‘lost’ in 2005
N
23
Income (£)
57,997
5-10
10-15
0
1
92,716
13
38,231
4
48,297
AND INCOME CHANGE
(2007-2006)
Non-Target
Target
Margin
D
ΔI
D
ΔI
0-5
29 17,130
31 25,400
5-10
19
9,692
12 11,666
10-15
13
4,760
4
7,627
15-20
6 11,139
1
5,771
20+
3 10,979
0
D – number of seats with 2006 and 2007 data;
ΔI – mean income change (2007-2006)
HOW DID THEY RAISE IT?
REPORTED DONATIONS
TO CONSTITUENCY PARTIES
N
NC
Total (£)
2002
348
142
1,002,905
2003
187
100
558,858
2004
344
156
1,403,138
2005
876
298
3,481,753
2006
321
126
1,059,552
2007
442
180
1,914,064
2008*
266
144
1.085,669
N – number of donations; NC – number of
Constituencies; * (to end June)
AND WHAT WAS IT SPENT ON?
£ on Printing + Stationery + Postage +
Campaigning in Target Seats
Margin
2006
2007
Δ
0-5
13,587
23,898
11,554
5-10
4,366
17,607
10,429
10-15
8,903
13,460
4,556
NB – Number of seats not the same in 2006 and
2007
LONG-TERM TRENDS IN
EXPENDITURE (£25,000+)
Min
10th
25th
Med
75th
90th
Max
N
2003
25,129
29,485
34,988
50,365
69,971
94,864
343,059
259
2004
10,584
25,651
34,543
51,251
72,560
97,154
298,432
250
2005
15,755
33,469
42,576
62,790
91,050
117,016
342,192
254
2006
2,391
20,590
30,160
48,927
75,290
106,349
420,450
281
2007
10,395
28,847
38,159
56,291
82,670
116,345
392,333
305
MEMBERSHIP
Min
10th
25th
Med
75th
90th
Max
N
2006 2007
42 47
298 245
405 340
604 505
900 805
1201 1043
2403 2255
237 294
2006-2007 Δ
47
-789
275
-211
363
-109
529
-52
803
-4
1042
34
2255
187
237
237