Competing in Capabilities The Central Dynamic • Trade liberalisation re-visited Relative Wages I wB wA II III Relative Quality 1 v u Digging Deeper: the locus of capability Know-how and Capability worker 1 2 3 know-how A C B C A B Capability A B C Know-how and Capability worker 1 2 3 know-how A C B C A B Capability A Products Produced B X C Y Z The First Puzzle The value of the firm: Why can workers not ‘carry away’ the firm’s value (capability)? The key idea: Intra-firm transfers of know-how are ‘costless’ worker 1 2 3 know-how A C B C A B - the departure of an individual worker leaves total know-how fixed - each recruit can absorb any available piece of know-how costlessly Intuition: By replicating know-how within the firm, the firm can dilute the bargaining power of workers …… but an intrinsic effect of this is that spin-offs become viable. The Main Implication The Main Implication - Spillovers emerge endogenously The Main Implication - Spillovers emerge endogenously - No monopolization of capability The Main Implication - Spillovers emerge endogenously - No monopolization of capability A platform for latecomers • We noted above that the driver of Phase 2 globalization lay in the transfer of existing capabilities… • The speed of transfer reflects both factors that are exogenous to the firm, and also some delicate strategic decisions… The Speed of Transfer - Delicately dependent on industry characteristics - Key channels differ by industry (a) Buyer search channel: Textiles (b) Trade Fairs: Ubiquitous (c) Supply chains: Vertical Transfers The Evidence on “FDI Spillovers” Speed of Transmission FAST Auto components: Vertical relations with shared technology; standardization and codification of working practices. Domestic Appliances: Horizontal JVs – here incentives of senior partner are critical (cf. China). Machine Tools: Public sector bodies etc. SLOW Component Suppliers to Multi-National Car Makers 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 India China 0 >2 50 0 0 -2 50 0 0 20 0 -1 00 0 -7 00 0 -3 50 0 -1 00 -7 30 0 10 0- <1 00 p pm 0.1 0 Component Suppliers to Steering Gear Firms 1 0.8 0.6 India 0.4 China 0.2 0 <1% 1-10% 10-20% 20-40% >40% A Timescale for Capability Building • A multinational seat maker on a greenfield site in India drops from initial 2,085 ppm to 65 ppm in year 3. • A domestic Indian seat maker drops from 20,000 ppm to 200 ppm over 5 years. The Mahindra Story … and at the other end of the spectrum CNC Machine Tools The Machine Tool Industry How trajectories develop/divide Conventional Machines Pre 1970 CNC Machines Post 1970 Controls Ball-screws The ‘machine’ The Invidious Trade-Off controls 55% 15% ball-screws wages 15% Bought-in Components 15% Materials, Energy costs, etc. A typical cost breakdown size & complexity 3-axis, 15 kW Japan 11 kW, 350mm Taiwan India 7.5 kW, 165mm 0.25 1 Gross Labour Productivity 4 Quality Comparisons 50 Indian CNC lathes and vertical machining centres were twinned with equivalent foreign machines doing a similar job in the same plant. Structural shifts in the Indian Industry • The emergence of ACE designers • A lesson for policy…of which more tomorrow