Report to PLACE Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment Prepared by Saeed Patel and Kenneth Barnsley Corporate Research Joint Intelligence Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council Third Floor Town Hall Blackburn BB1 7DY 15 February 2011 Document Information Title Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment Date completed February 2011 Description This report sets out the Local Economic Assessment for Pennine Lancashire and serves as the Local Economic Assessment for Blackburn with Darwen. It has been developed between April and November 2010, with contributions to the structure and suggestions for suitable content from the Place Strategy Unit, Blackburn with Darwen Economic Development and Regeneration, Corporate Research Joint Intelligence and the districts that make up Pennine Lancashire. The report has been produced by Corporate Research Joint Intelligence at Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council. The purpose of this document is to communicate information which has been compiled as a result of research and analysis relating to Pennine Lancashire districts and to stimulate thought amongst partners to highlight the main issues affecting Pennine Lancashire districts now and in the future. The report is evidence based, the data provides a point in time snapshot and covers a wide range of topics. The report is not intended to be exhaustive, instead a broad overview and assessment is provided to support the development of economic policy and strategy for Pennine Lancashire, the Multi Area Agreement and the developing proposals for Local Economic Partnership. Creator Saeed Patel Research and Intelligence Officer Contact details Corporate Research Joint Intelligence Policy and Research 3rd Floor Old Town Hall e: saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk T: 01254 58(5106) Geographic coverage Pennine Lancashire districts Period Latest information up-to 2010-11 is included where possible Frequency update To be determined Status Final draft version Disclaimer Data for this report has been obtained from trusted national sources and is believed to be correct. Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council does not guarantee its accuracy nor does it accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or other consequences, arising from use of such information supplied Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 1 Chapter contents Chapter 1 Population Ethnicity Religion Projection of future population and households Dependency ratio Under 16 dependency ratio Old age dependency ratio Dependency ratio over time Household projections International migration Origin of foreign nationals in Lancashire Worker registration by district Origin of foreign by district 5 8 10 11 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 Chapter 2 18 19 20 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 37 38 39 39 GCSE and equivalent results Adult qualifications 2001 and 2008 Qualifications 2008 Employment rate Economic activity rate 2001 Economic activity rate 2008 Economic inactivity Jobs density Self employment Unemployment Unemployment – age and duration Claimants key out of work benefits Earnings – Resident and workplace Earnings Full and part time Median gross annual earnings Gross disposable household earnings Chapter 3 Output and productivity (GVA) Gross value added per head Employment structure Employment overview (employees) by district Employment by sector (SIC 2007) Manufacturing sector change over time Textiles Food and drink Optical and electrical equipment Printing Machinery and equipment Transport and equipment Chemical and man made fibres Non metallic minerals Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 42 43 45 48 50 51 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 53 2 Services sector change over time Wholesale and retail trade Hotels and restaurants Public administration, education and health Transport and communications Financial intermediation 54 55 55 55 56 56 Creative and digital ICT and telecommunications Sports and leisure Retail trade Construction Tourism Knowledge economy Employment in Knowledge Intensive (KI) industries Occupation of workers in KI industries Higher level skills Business structure District overview Third (voluntary) sector Business structure over time Business size Small business by number of employees Small business by number of employees 2008 Business births and deaths Births and deaths percentage of enterprise stock Entrepreneurialism NI 177 business registration and closure per 10,000 adult population NI 172 Small business showing employment growth Business survival rates 57 57 58 58 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 73 74 74 76 77 Chapter 4 – Communities and connections Employment centres Land use Commercial property Empty units Empty unit trends Expenditure retail centres in the North West Travel to work Where do residents work Where do workers live In and outflow Map 1 travel out of Blackburn with Darwen Map 2 travel to Blackburn with Darwen Distances travelled to work Gender and distance travelled to work Car ownership in Lancashire Mode of transport used to travel to work NI 176 Working age population with access to employment by public transport NI 177 Local bus and light rail journeys Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 78 79 82 83 84 85 86 86 86 86 87 88 90 91 92 95 95 3 Chapter 5 Housing Dwelling type Household tenure House prices and housing costs House prices and sales volume House prices and earnings Median house prices to median earnings House price trends Dwelling stock by tenure Number of affordable homes delivered Vacant dwellings by district Council tax 96 97 98 99 101 102 103 104 106 107 108 Chapter 6 Environment NI 191 Residual household waste per household NI 192 Percentage of household waste sent for recycling NI 193 percentage of municipal waste sent to landfill Energy consumption Estimates of local carbon dioxide emissions Greenhouse gas emissions 110 111 112 113 115 117 Chapter 7 Inclusion, crime and health Deprivation Income deprivation affecting children Benefit claimants Disability rate Infant mortality All age all cause, circulatory disease & cancer mortality Crime Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 119 123 124 126 127 127 128 4 Chapter One : Population This chapter looks at the overall population in the sub-region between given time frames to identify trends, and implications of changes in population. The study of population is important since its size and composition can exert a powerful influence on an area’s development. Population size, composition, and distribution influence the range of industries an area can support, the pool of talent that can be called on, the potential of communities, and the demand for and supply of services. Similarly, the effect people have on the social, economic and physical environments depends on the composition, expectations and distribution of the population. 1.1 Population 2009 Blackburn with Darwen’s population in 2009 (the latest available estimate) was of 139,900 people. As figure one shows, the population of Blackburn with Darwen has, over recent years, begun to steadily decline. The mid –year estimate in 2009 put the population of the borough at 139,900, lower than the 2008 figure of 140,700. Between 2001 and 2005 Blackburn with Darwen experienced a continuous increase in its population, which peaked at 141,200 in 2006. The total Pennine Lancashire population also shows a similar trend, peaking at 526,000 in 2006, before going into decline. Fig 1: Blackburn with Darwen population by year Blackburn with Darwen Population 1999-2009 141.5 141.0 141.2 141.2 140.5 140.8 140.9 140.0 140.0 139.5 139.0 140.7 139.9 139.3 138.5 138.0 137.5 138.2 138.2 138.5 137.0 136.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ONS mid year population estimates Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 5 Table 1: Population change (000s) in Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire Districts, 1991-2009 Area Population Population in % change in 2001 2009 2001-2009 Blackburn with Darwen 138,500 139,900 +1.0% Burnley 89,500 85,600 -4.4% Hyndburn 81,500 81,100 -0.5% Pendle 89,300 89,300 Ribble Valley 54,100 57,600 +6.5% Rossendale 65,600 67,100 +2.3% Pennine Lancashire North West England and Wales 518,500 6,773,000 52,360,000 520,600 6,897,900 54,809,100 +0.4% +1.8% +4.7% Source: Office for National Statistics The above table shows population change between 2001 and 2009 for Pennine Lancashire districts. The table shows the population of Hyndburn and Burnley decreasing, all other districts have experienced increases in their population. Overall, Ribble Valley has seen a 6.5% increase in its population over this period, and Rossendale a 2.3% increase. During the same period Burnley’s population declined by 4.4% and Hyndburn’s by 0.5%. From an economic viewpoint, population numbers have two main areas of significance, firstly growing numbers of people generate increased demands for goods and services and, therefore, for the employment which delivers goods and services. Secondly, growing numbers of people form the basis for a growing workforce. The working age population is defined as 16 to 59 years for females and 16 to 64 for males, which is a key determinant of the size of the workforce; however there are limitations: There is no guarantee that these people are working People not in this age group could be working People in this age group could be working outside the Pennine Lancashire area Table 1.1 and figures 1.1 and 1.2 shows the mid 2009 population for Pennine Lancashire districts by three broad age bands. Blackburn with Darwen has the largest number of people in all age groups. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 6 Fig 1.1 Total population by district (N) Fig 1.2 % population by district 160,000 Pensionable age 140,000 Working age 120,000 Children 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 B'burn Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Darwen Rossendale valley Children 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 15.4% Working age Pensionable age 19.4% 18.6% 19.0% 23.1% 18.0% 60.2% 59.9% 60.5% 58.5% 61.7% 24.3% 20.4% 21.5% 20.5% 18.4% 20.3% B'burn Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Rossendale 60.3% valley Darwen Table 1.1: Broad age groups by district Age group BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle 0-15 24.3% 20.4% 21.5% 16-59/64 60.3% 60.2% 60/65+ 15.4% 139,900 Total Rossendale 20.5% Ribble Valley 18.4% 20.3% Pennine Lancashire 21.4% North West 18.8% England & Wales 18.7% 59.9% 60.5% 58.5% 61.7% 60.2% 61.5% 61.8% 19.4% 18.6% 19.0% 23.1% 18.0% 18.4% 19.7% 19.5% 85,600 81,100 89,300 57,600 67,100 520,600 6,897,900 54,809,100 Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, population estimates analysis tool A quarter of Blackburn with Darwen’s population is under the age of 15 compared to approximately a fifth for Pennine Lancashire and Pennine Lancashire districts. It is also evident from the statistics that there are a smaller proportion of people of retirement age in the borough with 15.4% being of pensionable age, Ribble Valley has the highest proportion of people of retirement age with 23.1% and the lowest proportion of people of working age. The following table shows the change in the broad age distribution of Blackburn with Darwen’s population between 2001 and 2009: Table 1.2: Changing age balance of Blackburn with Darwen’s population 2001 2009 2001-2009 No. % No. % % change Aged 0-15 34,600 25.0 34,000 25.0 -1.7% Working age 82,600 59.6 84,300 59.8 +2.1% Retirement age 21,300 15.4 21,600 15.2 +1.4% Total 138,500 100.0 139,900 100.0 +1.0% Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates This data shows that the number of older people in the borough has increased by 300, while the number of young people has fallen by twice the amount. But, critically in a period of rising employment/unemployment, the number of people of working age – that is, in principle, available to work, has risen by around 1,700 people or 2.1%. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 7 The following table presents population change by broad age groups between 2001 and 2009. Table 1.3: Population Change by Broad Age Grouping (2001-2009) BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire North West England 0-15 -1.7 -13.8 -6.5 -9.4 - -6.8 -6.3 -7.0 -2.3 16-59/64 2.1 -3.7 0.2 1.3 3.7 3.2 1.0 3.0 5.1 60/65+ 1.4 5.7 4.9 7.6 22.0 11.0 7.5 8.0 10.7 Total 1.0 -4.4 -0.5 - 6.5 2.3 0.4 1.8 4.7 Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates Between 2001 and 2009 Blackburn with Darwen has experienced a 1% decrease in its population. The population of children has decreased by -1.7%, while the working age population has increased by 2.1%, those of pensionable age have also increased by 1.4%. Burnley (-13.8%) and Pendle (-9.4%) have experienced a decrease in children aged 0-15 higher than the Pennine Lancashire rate (-6.3%), Blackburn with Darwen has experienced the smallest decrease with -1.7. Ribble Valley (22.0%), Pendle (7.6%) and Rossendale (11.0%) all saw an increase in residents of pensionable age with rates higher than Pennine Lancashire. 1.2 Ethnicity Ethnicity estimates are produced by the Office for national Statistics. The latest available estimates are for 2007. In 2007, three quarters (77%) of Blackburn with Darwen’s population was of white ethnicity and just under a quarter were from black and minority ethnic (BME) backgrounds, this included a fifth with an asian background. The percentage of ethnic population within Pennine Lancashire sub-region is approximately 13%, after Blackburn with Darwen, Pendle has the largest percentage of ethnic minority people living in its district (16%), followed by Burnley and Hyndburn with 10% and as detailed in table 1.4, these are mostly of asian origin. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 8 Table 1.4: Ethnicity by district Total White Mixed Asian Black BME Other Blackburn with Darwen 140,900 77.0% 1.3% 20.4% 0.8% 22.5% 0.6% Burnley 87,500 89.4% 0.9% 8.7% 0.5% 10.1% 0.5% Hyndburn 82,000 89.6% 1.0% 8.8% 0.4% 10.1% 0.4% Pendle 90,000 83.9% 1.1% 14.3% 0.3% 15.8% 0.4% Ribble Valley 58,300 95.4% 0.7% 2.7% 0.3% 3.8% 0.7% Rossendale 67,000 94.3% 0.9% 4.0% 0.3% 5.2% 0.4% Pennine Lancashire 525,700 86.5% 1.0% 11.5% 0.5% 13.1% 0.5% North West 6,864,300 92.1% 1.2% 4.4% 1.1% 6.8% 1.1% England 51,092,000 88.2% 1.7% 5.7% 2.8% 10.2% 1.5% Source: ONS Experimental Statistics Table 1.5: Districts by broad age groups Age group Area Total All ages Pennine Lancashire 525.0 BwD 140.7 North West 6864.1 England 51092.0 White 86.5% 77.0% 92.1% 88.2% VME 13.5% 23.0% 7.9% 11.8% 0-15 Pennine Lancashire BwD North West England 112.8 34.1 1308.7 9655.8 78.7% 67.4% 88.8% 84.2% 21.3% 32.6% 11.2% 15.8% 16-64/59 Pennine Lancashire BwD North West England 319.5 85.5 4240.1 31791.7 86.4% 76.8% 91.4% 87.1% 13.6% 23.2% 8.6% 12.9% 65/60+ Pennine Lancashire BwD North West England 92.7 21.1 1315.3 9644.5 96.7% 93.4% 97.8% 95.9% 3.3% 6.6% 2.2% 4.1% Source: ONS, Experimental statistics A third of Blackburn with Darwen’s minority ethnic population is aged between 0-15 compared to a fifth for Pennine Lancashire. Both the Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire minority ethnic population is higher than the regional and national average. A quarter of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen is of minority ethnic origin, higher than Pennine Lancashire figure of 14% and also higher than the regional and national average. For those of a pensionable age, those with white ethnicity make up the highest percentage in each area. Approximately 7% of Blackburn with Darwen’s pensionable age population comes from a minority ethnic background. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 9 1.3 Religion Religion and religious distinctions within ethnic groups can be important to business and service provision, due to differing customs and culture. Information by ethnicity relating to religion is found in the 2001 census, shown below In the 2002 census 1 in 10 Pennine Lancashire residents were muslim and 71% christian. A response of no religion was given by 10.4% of Pennine Lancashire residents and for a further 7.4% religion was not stated. The profile of the resident population by religion changes when considered by each Pennine Lancashire district. Approximately 1 in 5 Blackburn with Darwen residents and 1 in 7 Pendle residents are muslim. Burnley and Hyndburn also have a muslim presence with approximately 7%, Ribble valley has the lowest. Table 1.6: Religion by district All Christian People Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire Buddhist/Hindu /Jewish Muslim Sikh Any other religion No religion 137,470 63.3% 0.4% 19.4% 0.1% 0.1% 8.0% Religion not stated 8.6% 89,542 81,496 89,248 53,960 74.5% 76.3% 65.4% 85.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 6.6% 7.2% 13.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 11.0% 9.2% 13.1% 8.2% 7.3% 7.0% 7.6% 5.4% 65,652 51,7368 75.7% 71.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9% 10.4% 7.0% 7.4% Source: ONS 2001 census Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 10 1.4 Projection of future population and households Population projections are based on what has happened in the past and assumptions about what is going to happen in the future. The following should be borne in mind when assessing any change in population. Population projections vary in their reliability and level of certainty. Projected trends in the past have varied in their reliability due to the assumptions made and generally, the level of uncertainty increases the further in time projections are made Table 1.7 Forecast population change in Pennine Lancashire, 2008 to 2030 TOTAL TOTAL POPULATION POPULATION 2008 2030 Blackburn with Darwen 139.4 145.9 Burnley 86.0 83.8 Hyndburn 81.2 82.6 Pendle 89.1 94.1 Ribble Valley 57.8 63.4 Rossendale 66.7 72.0 Pennine Lancashire North West England 520.2 6874.1 51,464.6 541.8 7413.1 59,738.3 % CHANGE 4.7% -2.6% 1.7% 5.6% 9.7% 7.9% 4.2% 7.8% 16.1% Source: Sub-national population projections, Office for national Statistics, based on 2008 population. Blackburn with Darwen in common with many other areas is expected to see growth in its population into the future. Most recent government population projections suggest that by 2030 Blackburn with Darwen’s population will be 145,900, a 4.7% increase on the 2008 population. All districts in Pennine Lancashire with the exception of Burnley are expected to see increases in their populations. Ribble Valley and Rossendale are forecast to increase their populations by 9.7% and 7.9% respectively. Burnley’s population of 85,400 is expected to decrease by -2.6% or 2,200 by 2030. These long term changes are not immediately critical to the local economy, what is more relevant is the change in age distribution of the population which accompanies the changes in total numbers. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 11 Table 1.8 Forecast change in population age distribution in Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire districts, 2009 to 2030 2009 MYE’s 20301 N % % % N % % % children Working retired children Working retired age age Blackburn with 139.9 24.3 60.3 15.4 145.9 23.6 56.1 20.3 Darwen Burnley 85.6 20.4 60.2 19.4 83.8 20.3 52.4 27.2 Hyndburn 81.1 21.5 59.9 18.6 82.6 19.9 55.0 25.2 Pendle 89.3 20.5 60.5 19.0 94.1 19.7 53.8 26.7 Ribble 57.7 18.4 58.4 23.1 63.4 16.2 50.0 33.8 Valley Rossendale 67.1 20.3 61.7 18.0 72.0 19.2 55.1 25.8 Pennine Lancashire North West England 520.7 21.4 60.2 18.4 541.8 20.4 54.1 25.5 6,897.9 51,809.7 18.8 18.7 61.5 61.8 19.7 19.5 7413.1 59,738.3 18.3 18.2 56.0 57.1 25.7 24.7 Source: 2009 MYE’s and 1 Sub-national population projections, Office for national Statistics, based on 2008 population. Between 2010 and 2030 the proportion of older people in Blackburn with Darwen is set to increase and the proportion of younger people is set to decrease, the proportion of the working age population is also set to decrease. These changes will have significance for education, health and social care services. Underpinning the absolute growth in population highlighted above, the broad demographic structure of Pennine Lancashire districts is changing. With the future predicting a far greater proportion of people in the older and very old age groups than at present. Between 2010 and 2030 the number of over 65 year olds is due to increase by 8,300 or 46%, while the over 85 year olds are expected to number 3,800 (a 73% increase on the 2010 base of 2,200). Whilst the aging population increases, the number of people in population aged between 25 and 49 are expected to decrease in the 2010 to 2030 period. Over the period this age group is projected to see a decrease of some 1,100 people or a decline of 2.3%. Such a decrease, is likely to have an impact on the labour force of Blackburn with Darwen, with a potentially smaller overall labour force, and possible changing structure in the labour force, with people having to work longer than present, and possibly a shift towards a greater emphasis on part time work, as population becomes more skewed towards older age groups. The total 2008-based projected population for the sub-region in 2030 is just over half a million while that for Blackburn with Darwen it is 145.9. The figures below show population pyramids based on the 2008 projections by age and sex for Blackburn with Darwen, comparing 2010 projection with the projected 2030 figures. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 12 Fig 1.3. Fig 1.4. Blackburn with Darwen Pennine Lancashire F 2030 90+ M 2030 85-89 F 2008 80-84 M 2030 90+ 75-79 65-69 70-74 60-64 65-69 55-59 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 50-54 40-44 45-49 35-39 40-44 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 6 4 2 M 2008 80-84 70-74 8 F 2008 85-89 M 2008 75-79 F 2030 0-4 0 2 4 6 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Notable points for Blackburn with Darwen are There is a projected increase in the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups with a reduction in those aged 0-4. For the 15-64 age groups the projections give shifting patterns between the groups. With the exception of 55-59 and 60-64 age group which is projected to increase. A projected increase in all age groups over 65 can be seen for 2030, this largely results from projected increase in life expectancy. In the older age groups women outnumber men. One consequence of a declining work force is an increase in dependency ratio 1.5 Dependency ratio The dependency ratio measures the percentage of dependent people (not of working age) as a proportion of those who are economically active (i.e. working age population). The dependency ratio is important because it shows the ratio of economically inactive compared to economically active population. The economically active population will pay much more income tax, corporation tax, and, to a lesser extent, more sales and VAT taxes. The economically inactive (under 16 and over 65) population tend to be bigger recipients of government spending e.g. education, pensions and health care. An increase in the dependency ratio can cause fiscal problems for local and national government, and will lead to increasingly difficult choices to be made. Many are concerned about an increase in the dependency ratio. However, it is worth bearing in mind that this rise in dependency ratio is partly offset by rising female participation in the labour market and a smaller percentage of people under 18. The figures given below are at district authority level Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 13 1.6 Under 16 Dependency ratio NB. Dependency ratios calculated are based on 2008 based population projections. In 2010, the dependency ratio for Pennine Lancashire for those aged 0-16 was 35.5%, compared to 30.5% for the North West and 30.2% for England. All districts of Pennine Lancashire had rates that were higher than the regional and national average, the highest dependency ratio being 40.4% for Blackburn with Darwen. Hyndburn has the 2nd highest rate with 35.1% and Ribble Valley the lowest at 31.6%. 1.7 Old age - Dependency ratio The old age dependency ratio was 32.4% for the North West, higher than the national rate at 31.6%. Ribble valley at 40.4% had the highest old age dependency ratio of any Pennine Lancashire district, higher also than the regional and national average. Rossendale, Hyndburn and Blackburn with Darwen have rates lower than the regional and national average, the lowest being 25.9% for Blackburn with Darwen. 1.8 Dependency ratio over time Figure 1.5 given below shows old age and under 16 dependency ratio over time for Blackburn with Darwen as can be seen whilst the dependency ratio is high for those aged less than 16 it is projected to remain fairly stable over the next 20 years. The old age dependency ratio however can be seen to increase such that in 2030 the old age dependency ratio in Blackburn with Darwen is 36.2%, an increase of 10.3% points on the 2010 level Fig 1.5 Children and older people dependency ratio for Blackburn with Darwen Children Older people 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 40.4% 40.9% 42.4% 20.0% 42.2% 36.2% 30.0% 25.0% 42.4% 33.1% 25.9% 27.8% 30.1% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 2030 14 1.9 Household projections In March 2009, the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) published projections of households down to local authority level. The data shows that the number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.8 million in 2031, an increase of 6.3 million (29.3%) over the 2006 estimate. Population growth is the main driver of household growth, but significant percentage increases in one person and lone parent households are also a factor. The ageing population underpins the growth in one person households. Married couple households are expected to show a small decline which is in contrast to the 74% increase in the number of cohabiting couples. All these changes are expected to result in the average household size declining from 2.32 in 2006 to 2.13 in 2031. Table 1.9 Household Projections by Household Type, 2006-2031 2006 2016 2026 2031 Married couple Cohabiting couple Lone parent Other multi-person One person 9,395,000 2,118,800 1,663,000 1,446,000 6,822,000 9,115,000 3,031,000 1,852,000 1,648,000 8,460,000 9,129,000 3,574,000 1,976,000 1,816,000 10,178,000 9,179,000 3,804,000 2,021,000 1,914,000 10,899,000 Percentage change 2006-2031 -2 74 22 32 60 All households 21,515,000 24,107,000 26,674,000 27,818,000 29 Private household population 49,855,000 53,769,000 57,617,000 59,287,000 19 2.32 2.23 2.16 2.13 — Average household size Source: Department for Communities and Local Government: Household Projections to 2031 The most rapid growth rates in household numbers within Pennine Lancashire districts are the Ribble Valley (41.7%) far in excess of the regional and national average. In contrast Burnley is only expected to see a 14% increase in households. The growth rate for other Pennine Lancashire authorities is projected to grow by a quarter. Table 1.10: Household Projections, 2006-2031 (thousands) Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire North West England 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Percentage change 2006-2031 55 37 34 37 24 28 58 38 35 39 26 30 60 39 37 41 28 31 63 40 39 43 30 33 66 41 40 45 32 34 68 42 42 46 34 35 23.6% 13.5% 23.5% 24.3% 41.7% 25.0% 215 2,931 21,515 226 3,067 22,748 236 3,221 24,107 248 3,367 25,439 258 3,497 26,674 267 3,617 27,818 24.2% 23.4% 29.3% Source: Department for Communities and Local Government: Household Projections to 2031 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 15 1.10 International Migration International migration has always played a role in shaping the demographic profile of Blackburn with Darwen and other Pennine Lancashire districts, migration in the early and late 60’s saw people from the Indian subcontinent arrive to take up employment in cotton mills in the area, more recently with the opening up of borders many migrants from EU accession states have come to the country Worker registration scheme figures provide information for local authorities on applications to work in the UK by those from the eight EU accession countries. Workers from these countries have to register for each job they take until they have worked a total of 12 out of 13 months. 1.11 Origin of Foreign nationals in Lancashire In 2008/09 Poland remains the source of most (2,080) registrations in Lancashire. Registrations from Poland account for 27% of the total. The percentage of registrations coming from Poland has dropped considerably as in 2007/08 they accounted for 46% of all registrations. India and Pakistan are the second and third main contributor countries to Lancashire migration with 930 and 600 from each country respectively. China is the fourth main origin of migrants (with 300). A total of 3,020 of the registrations in Lancashire in 2008/09 were by people from the eight Eastern European accession countries (not shown in Table 1 are Slovenia and Estonia. There were no registrations in Lancashire from these countries). In addition to these registrations from Eastern Europe, there were 150 and 110 registrations from Bulgaria and Romania. These countries joined the European Union in January 2007. Table 1.11 Origins of Foreign Nationals Registering in Lancashire Poland India Pakistan China Slovak Hungary Republic 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2,080 4,420 4,660 3,770 1,130 80 30 930 920 860 890 760 680 640 600 780 810 640 630 610 720 300 370 300 240 280 230 190 Change +2,050 +290 -120 +110 2002/032008/09 Source: Department for Work and Pensions Lithuania Bulgaria Latvia Czech Republic Bangladesh Romania 270 250 300 300 130 0 0 240 190 170 120 20 0 0 150 170 230 430 160 0 0 150 140 10 40 60 20 0 140 180 250 320 130 0 0 140 130 140 170 50 0 0 120 100 100 100 80 70 80 110 40 20 80 10 0 0 +270 +240 +150 +150 +140 +140 +40 +110 Migration from Eastern Europe was minimal from Poland prior to 2004/05 and almost nonexistent from the other countries. Migration from Poland and other Eastern European countries began to rise in 2004/05. However the greatest increases were between 2004/05 and 2005/06. Between 2006/07 and 2007/08 numbers from most of the eastern Europe accession countries started to drop and have dropped more significantly between 2007/08 and 2008/09 (by 2,320, which is 22%). Between 2006/07 and 2007/08 they continued to rise a little from Hungary and have continued to do so (by another 50) into 2008/09. In January 2007 Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union. Registrations from Bulgaria in 2007/08 were much higher than in Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 16 previous years at 150. Registrations from Romania have varied but definitely rose between 2007/08 and 2008/09 from 40 to 110. India and Pakistan remain as the second and third main contributor countries of migrants to Lancashire. Registrations from Indian nationals increased by approximately 300 between 2002/03 and 2008/09. Conversely the number from Pakistan fell by 120. There were also 120 registrations from Bangladesh in 2008/09, 40 higher than in 2002/03. 1.12 Worker registrations by District Registrations were by far the highest in Preston in 2008/09 (1,710). Blackburn with Darwen had high a numbers of registrations in 2008/09 at 930. Summing the district data for 2008/09 shows that there were around 7,550 registrations in Lancashire and 5,840 in the Lancashire County Council area. These figures are approximate as the district figures are rounded to the nearest ten. Between 2007/08 and 2008/09 registrations fell in all but two local authority areas in Lancashire. They fell by the greatest number in Blackburn with Darwen (by 500), Blackpool (480) and Preston (340). Registrations rose slightly in West Lancashire (60) and Rossendale (30). Table 1.12 Lancashire District Rankings in Great Britain Rankings Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Source: Department for Work and Pensions 2008/09 =142 =336 =373 =170 =286 =239 2007/08 106 =304 263 =219 =348 =400 Difference ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ Out of 408 districts or unitary councils in Great Britain, only Blackpool in Lancashire is in the quarter of councils with the highest numbers of national insurance number registrations by foreign nationals in 2008/09. Table 1.13 District Registrations as a Percentage of Total Working Age Population Working population 2008 NI number registrations 2004/09 Total % of working number population 4,600 5.40 1,300 2.44 1,770 3.60 2,530 4.62 680 1.95 590 1.41 NI number registrations 2008/09 Total % of working number population 930 1.09 280 0.53 330 0.67 510 0.93 130 0.37 130 0.31 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale 85,240 53,200 49,120 54,720 34,880 41,720 Broader 14-authority Lancashire area 880,400 34,120 3.88 7,550 0.86 36,942,520 3,165,800 8.57 686,110 1.86 Great Britain Source: Department for Work and Pensions Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 17 In Lancashire cumulative registrations between 2004 and 2009 accounted for almost 4% of the total working population of 2008. The rate was much the same in the county. In both cases the rate is less than half the rate across Great Britain. Cumulative registrations accounted for the highest proportion of the working population in Preston – at over 8%. Blackpool, Blackburn with Darwen and Lancaster had the next highest rates at over 5% respectively. Cumulative figures do not represent the actual number of foreign migrants in an area at any one time as some will have left. The 7,550 registrations in Lancashire in 2008/09 accounted for less than one percent of the 2008 working age population. 1.13 Origin of foreign nationals by district By country of origin, Poland ranked in first position in ten Lancashire authority areas in 2008/09. The dominance of Poland has reduced a little since 2007/08 when it was the main contributor country to twelve districts (except Burnley and Wyre). In 2008/09 India was the main country of origin (170 registrations) to Wyre whilst in Burnley and Pendle it was Pakistan (90 and 190 registrations respectively). In Rossendale there were 30 registrations from Bangladesh, the main contributor country. Table 1.14 Registrations in Lancashire Districts by Country of Origin Total 2008/09 1st highest 2nd highest Total Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 930 Poland (270) Pakistan (190) 1,430 280 Pakistan (90) Poland (30) 340 Hyndburn 330 Poland (160) 510 Pendle 510 Pakistan (190) No others with 10+ Poland (160) Ribble Valley 130 Poland (30) 220 Rossendale 130 Bangladesh (30) Slovak Republic (20) No others with 10+ 7,550 Poland (2,080) India (930) 9,680 Broader Lancashire area Source: 660 100 2007/08 1st highest 2nd highest Poland (650) Pakistan (90) Poland (320) Poland (240) Poland (120) Poland (20) India and Pakistan (220) Poland (80) Poland (4,420) India (920) Pakistan (100) Pakistan (240) Slovak Republic (20) Czech Republic(20) Looking at second main contributor countries in 2008/09 other nationalities appear, including the Slovakians (particularly in West Lancashire with 110 registrations), Hungarians in Chorley and South Ribble and Bulgarians in Wyre. There were also 70 registrations by Hungarians in Lancaster where it was the third contributor. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 18 Chapter Two : Employment and skills This chapter profiles Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire partners in terms of employment and skills. It considers the overall picture of adult skills and employment in the subregion in terms of the qualification levels, earnings and training. Indicators include: Educational attainment Adult skills: level 2, 3 and 4 and no qualifications Average earnings 2.1 GCSE and equivalent results As an authority, Blackburn with Darwen performs above the England and North West average for 2009 in GCSE achievement. The trend in GCSE attainment levels in Blackburn with Darwen have been positive, increasing from 46.8% in 2005 to 72.6% in 2009. Other authorities within the Pennine Lancashire area have also seen increases in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+A*-C although the rate of increase has varied, Burnley and the Ribble Valley district have seen modest increases, Burnley by +6% points and Ribble Valley by 7% points, from 71% to 78%, although it must be noted that attainment levels in this district was already high. Three of the Pennine Lancashire areas perform higher than the average for the North West and England. Key stage 4 relates to results at GCSE level, prior to transitions in FE, training or employment. Table 2: GCSE and equivalent results, percentage of pupils gaining - achieving 5+ A*-C 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Rank Blackburn with Darwen LA 46.8 51.5 59.9 66.5 72.6 113 % Point change 25.8 Burnley 45.6 44.5 41.1 46.9 51.1 326 5.5 Hyndburn 52.1 55.7 59.5 67.1 69.6 172 17.5 Rossendale 59.8 60.4 66.9 68.9 76.3 92 16.5 Pendle 46.1 45 44.3 53.5 61 282 14.9 Ribble Valley 71.1 71.2 75.5 76 78 12 6.9 North West 53.9 56.6 60.3 65.4 70.9 - 17 England 56.3 59.2 62 65.3 70 - 13.7 Source: DCSF Referenced by location of pupil residence The results for 2009are given in more detail below Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 19 Table 2. 1 GCSE and Equivalent Results by Location of Pupil Residence, 2008/09 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale North West England Pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 Local Percentage Percentage authority achieving 5+ achieving 2+ ranking GCSEs or GCSEs or (326) equivalent at equivalent at grades A*-C grades A*-C in including science English and subjects maths Number of pupils Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ GCSEs or equivalent at grades A*-C Average capped GCSE and equivalent point score per pupil at the end of KS4[2] 1,873 72.6 113 44.2 55.7 318.4 1,103 1,075 54.3 69.9 326 172 39.1 49.1 38.9 43.3 290.8 315.9 1,123 674 900 63.9 80.7 73.3 282 12 92 44.9 71.2 57.2 66.4 69.0 68.0 308.2 351.7 330.1 82,863 578,631 71 69.8 — — 49.9 50.7 56.8 54 318.6 318.4 [1] Ranking out of 326 Local Authorities in England. Source: Office for National Statistics - Neighbourhood Statistics - Referenced by Location of Pupil Residence The percentage of pupils who achieved five or more GCSE A*-C grade passes, or equivalent, was higher than the England average of 69.8% in four of the six Pennine Lancashire authorities. Within the Ribble Valley, 80.7% of pupils achieved five or more GCSE A*-C grade passes or equivalent - and was ranked in 12th position within England. Only 17 local authorities had 80% or more of their pupils achieving five or more GCSE A*-C grade passes or equivalent. Rossendale, Blackburn with Darwen, and Hyndburn also achieved percentages above the England average of 69.8%. At the other extreme, four authorities within the Lancashire sub-region, Pendle and Burnley, were all ranked in the bottom 100, in 282nd and 326th position, respectively. Unfortunately for Burnley, the 54.3% pass rate of five a more A*-C grades was the worst percentage out of the 326 authorities in England. Only 15 local authorities within England recorded percentages of pupils achieving five or more GCSE A*-C grade passes or equivalent below 60%. The two authorities with the lowest rates also experience problems of deprivation. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 20 2.2 Adults - Qualifications However, whilst education is significant to long term skills supply, a more immediate issue is that of skills and qualification levels in the current workforce. Different types of qualifications are grouped into levels of NVQ (National Vocational Qualification). There are four levels of qualifications, as shown in table 3.39. Data for qualifications comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS), which also includes data for those with no qualifications and other qualifications. A first analysis compares qualification profiles of Pennine Lancashire districts working age population with that of national and regional workforce and looks at changes in recent years. Data on educational attainment for adults is available through two key sources, the 2001 Census and the Office for National Statistics Annual Population Survey. The Annual Population Survey data will be more current. Table 2.2: Qualification levels of the working age population Level 4 or higher Level 3 or higher Level 2 or higher 2001 2008 Diff 2001 2008 Diff 2001 2008 Diff Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent 17.4 22.6 35.5 42.0 % point 6.5 Per cent Blackburn with Darwen Burnley % point 5.2 57.7 60.9 % point 3.2 13.2 23.2 10.0 29.5 39.4 9.9 53.9 57.3 3.4 Hyndburn 17.8 18.9 1.1 35.3 38.5 3.2 58.7 60.1 1.4 Pendle 14.8 20.6 5.8 31.6 43.2 11.6 51.7 59.9 8.2 Ribble Valley 33.5 39.7 6.2 54.3 62.6 8.3 77.5 80.7 3.2 Rossendale 21.6 26.0 4.4 40.9 45.2 4.3 61.6 67.1 5.5 North West 22.5 27.4 4.9 41.9 47.1 5.2 62.3 68.1 5.8 England 25.0 30.5 5.5 43.6 49.5 5.9 63.9 69.4 5.5 Note: Diff is the differences between 2001 and 2008 measured in percentage points (p.p) Source: Derived by the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) from the Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics (ONS) The date shows that within the workforce at level 4, there is a move towards a more qualified workforce, Burnley has seen a 10% point increase in the number qualified to level 4 while Hyndburn has seen a 1.1% point increase. Pendle has seen the greatest percentage point increase in those qualified to level 3 or higher 12% point increase on 2001 levels while for qualifications at level 2 or higher the increase is 8.2% points. Hyndburn district seems to be the worse performing of any of the Pennine Lancashire district in terms of improvements in qualifications experiencing between a 1% and 3% point increase in those qualified at any one level. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 21 2.3 Qualifications – 2008 Table 2.3 shows the percentage of working age population with qualifications in 2008, a summary of which is given below. Table 2.3 Summary of Qualifications in Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire districts Level 4 (%) (%) Level 3 (%) Level 2 No qualifications (%) Blackburn with Darwen 22.6 42.0 60.9 18.7 Burnley 23.2 39.4 57.3 25.7 Hyndburn 18.9 38.5 60.1 19.1 Pendle 20.6 43.2 59.9 25.7 Ribble Valley 39.7 62.6 80.7 5.8 Rossendale 26.0 45.2 67.1 20.3 North West England Source: 27.4 30.5 47.1 49.5 68.1 69.4 14.7 12.3 Level 4 Ribble Valley is far ahead of regional and national averages in terms of the number of residents with a Level 4 qualification. Ribble Valley at 39.7% and Rossendale with 26.0% have the highest percentage holding qualifications at NVQ4+. All other Pennine Lancashire districts perform below regional and national levels, with the lowest rates in Hyndburn (18.9%) and Blackburn with Darwen (17.4%) Level 3 At level 3 Ribble Valley again performs better than the regional and national average, all other Pennine Lancashire districts lag behind with Burnley and Hyndburn the worst performing. Burnley and Hyndburn occupy the lowest position within Pennine Lancashire at this level. No qualifications Burnley and Pendle have a quarter of the working age population having no qualifications. With the exception of Ribble Valley which has the lowest percentage of the working age population with no qualifications all the other Pennine Lancashire districts have higher percentage of unqualified people than the regional or national average. In summary Ribble Valley and Rossendale are the best performing at each qualification level, Ribble Valley has the highest percentage of higher qualified and lowest percentage of unqualified people. Rossendale however has 20.3% of its working age population with no qualifications. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 22 Table 2.4 % working age population in Pennine Lancashire with no qualifications 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Blackburn with Darwen 20.3 20.0 19.3 20.0 18.2 Burnley 19.3 16.1 16.8 25.7 17.0 Hyndburn 18.4 15.4 17.5 20.1 14.7 Pendle 9.9 14.8 17.1 20.5 9.3 Ribble Valley 12.3 7.4 8.4 8.5 3.9 Rossendale 12.8 14.1 12.1 19.1 11.9 Pennine Lancashire 16.2 15.6 16.1 19.6 13.5 North West Great Britain 17.1 14.3 16.0 13.9 15.1 13.3 15.9 13.5 13.8 12.3 Source – Annual Population Survey (ONS Crown copyright) The graphs above show the percentage of people with no qualifications by district within the Pennine Lancashire area, it can be seen that Burnley, Hyndburn and Pendle are showing an increase in the percentage of residents with no qualifications each year. The exception to this is Ribble Valley where the percentage with no qualifications has been falling year on year, and is below the regional average. Blackburn with Darwen has remained steady, although at a higher level than the regional average. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 23 2.4 Employment rate The employment rate is a key indicator for tracking how the economy is performing. The employment rate gives the percentage of working age population (females 16-59 years and males 16-64 years) in employment (full-time, part time and self-employed) in any one year. The data is obtained from the Annual Population Survey with the financial year 04-05 being the first year of data. Table 2.5 shows the employment rate of Pennine Lancashire districts. Blackburn with Darwen, in general, has a low employment rate, 64% for Jan-Dec 2009, compared to the North West (70%) and nationally (73%). Two of Blackburn with Darwen’s Pennine Lancashire neighbours have similar low levels of employment, Burnley and Rossendale both with approximately 66%, although it is important to note that of all Pennine Lancashire districts the employment rate is lowest in Blackburn with Darwen. In contrast the employment rate in Ribble Valley (78%) is higher than both the regional and national average. Table 2.5 : Employment rate for working age population 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % point difference Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 68.7 66.7 67.5 67.8 63.5 -5.2 70.9 71.8 66.2 65.8 65.7 -5.2 Hyndburn 69.4 71.0 65.7 64.7 71.3 1.9 Pendle 70.7 70.9 68.4 67.7 71.0 0.3 Ribble Valley 82.8 84.0 86.6 83.1 77.7 -5.1 Rossendale 76.8 76.2 66.5 68.8 66.1 -10.7 Pennine Lancashire 72.0 72.0 69.1 68.8 68.3 -3.7 North West 72.8 72.5 72.0 72.1 70.3 -2.5 England 74.7 74.2 74.4 74.5 73.0 -1.7 Source: - Annual Population Survey – ONS crown copyright Over the years four Pennine Lancashire districts have experienced a decrease in employment rates, the largest being a -10.7% point decrease in the employment rate in Rossendale. Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley and the Ribble valley have all experienced approximately a 5% point decrease in employment rates over the same period. Hyndburn and Pendle both increased their employment rate, Hyndburn by 1.9% points and Pendle by 0.3% points. Looking at differences in the employment rate between males and females, nationally males have a higher employment rate. This is also the case for Blackburn with Darwen: in 2008-09 the employment rate for males was 68% compared to 59% for females. The gap between male/female employment rate seems to be decreasing in Blackburn with Darwen. In 2004-05, the male employment rate was 15 percentage points higher than the female rate, by 2008-09 this gap had decreased to 8 percentage points. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 24 2.5 Economic activity rate The economic activity rate measures the proportion of the population who are active or potentially active members of the labour market. A high economic activity rate means that a high proportion of people are working or available for work or training. Economically active includes people who are: Employed (full time, part-time and self-employed) Unemployed but actively seeking work On a government supported employment or training programme There are two sources of information for economic activity: the Annual Population Survey and the Census. In spite of the Census only providing information every 10 years it gives a more detailed breakdown of economic activity for North West districts. Table 2.6: Economic activity rate All 16-74 year olds Total economically active Economically Part-time active Full-time Self-employment Unemployed Full-time student Economically Retired inactive Student Looking after home/family Permanently sick/disabled Other Blackburn with Darwen 94,327 61.3% 11.8% 36.8% 6.5% 4.1% 2.1% 12.4% 4.5% 8.7% Pennine Lancashire 361,838 64.3% 11.8% 39.4 7.7 3.3 2.1 13.6 3.8 6.7 North West England 4,839,670 63.9% 11.9% 38.8% 7.1% 3.6% 2.5% 14.3% 4.6% 6.1% 35,532,091 67% 12% 41% 8% 3% 3% 14% 5% 7% 8.4% 8.0 7.7% 5% 4.6% 3.6 3.8% 3% Source: 2001 Census, ONS – Crown copyright The main differences are Blackburn with Darwen has a lower proportion of full time workers (37%) than Pennine Lancashire (39%), North West (39%) and England (41%) Lower proportion of self employed (7%) than Pennine Lancashire and England both (8%) No significant different in the number of part-time workers between Blackburn with Darwen, Pennine Lancashire and Regional and national average. A higher proportion unemployed (4%) than Pennine Lancashire and regional and national averages. A higher proportion looking after home/family than Pennine Lancashire, regional and national average. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 25 Table 2.7: Economic activity rate by district Pennine Lancashire All 16-74 year olds 361,838 Total economically active 64.3% Economically Part-time 11.8% active Full-time 39.4% Self7.7% employment Unemployed 3.3% Full-time student 2.1% Economically Retired 13.6% inactive Student 3.8% Looking after 6.7% home/family Permanently 8.0% sick/disabled Other 3.6% Blackburn with Darwen 94,327 61.3% 11.8% 36.8% 6.5% Burnley Hyndburn Pendle RV Rossendale 62,600 64.3% 12.3% 40.5% 6.2% 56,939 64.5% 11.4% 41.2% 6.6% 62,327 63.3% 11.5% 38.1% 8.2% 39,000 69.5% 12.8% 40.0% 12.8% 46,645 67.1% 11.5% 42.3% 8.6% 4.1% 2.1% 12.4% 4.5% 8.7% 3.1% 2.1% 13.7% 3.4% 6.2% 3.2% 2.1% 13.6% 3.4% 5.8% 3.6% 2.1% 13.8% 3.8% 7.4% 1.6% 2.3% 16.5% 3.3% 4.3% 2.8% 1.9% 13.0% 3.5% 5.7% 8.4% 8.9% 9.0% 7.8% 4.5% 7.9% 4.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 1.9% 2.8% Source: 2001 Census, ONS – Crown copyright The main differences are Blackburn with Darwen has the lowest proportion of full time workers (37%) of any Pennine Lancashire districts Blackburn with Darwen (9%) and Pendle (7%) have the highest proportion looking after the home/family, this is possibly an indicator of large minority ethnic populations with young families and/or households with single earners Blackburn with Darwen has the lowest proportion of self employed (7%) than the Pennine Lancashire and England average both (8%) Ribble valley has the highest proportion of retired persons (17%), and lowest proportion permanently sick/disabled. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 26 2.6 Economic activity The economically active population in Pennine Lancashire (those of working age currently in or actively seeking employment, or full time students) stands at 234,200, giving an economic activity rate of 74%. This compares unfavourably with that to the region (76.8%) and nationally (79.0%). Within Pennine Lancashire districts the rates vary, with Rossendale having the lowest economic activity rate at 68.9%, to Ribble valley with the highest at 82.1% Table 2.8 : Economic activity (2008) Economically active population Blackburn with Darwen 59,700 Burnley 38,800 Hyndburn 37,000 Pendle 41,900 Ribble Valley 28,200 Rossendale 28,600 Pennine Lancashire 234,200 70.6 73.5 75.8 76.7 82.1 68.9 74.0 North West England 76.8 79.0 3,234,200 25,092,800 % Source: Annual Population survey (APS), (ONS Crown copyright) The Annual Population survey measures the economic activity rate of the working age population (16-59 for females and 16-64 for males). The annual population survey (APS) for 2008-09 shows Blackburn with Darwen to have an economic activity rate of 71%. This is lower than regional (75%) and national (77%) averages Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 27 2.7 Economic inactivity The Annual population survey also collects data on the causes of economic inactivity. The vast majority of inactivity in Blackburn with Darwen is due to people not wanting a job (82%), this is high in comparison to England (76.3%) and the North West (76.5%). Blackburn with Darwen and Ribble Valley have the highest percentage of economically inactive who did not want a job, at approximately 84% each, Burnley had the lowest percentage of economically inactive population who said they did not want a job (66.1%). Those who did want a job but were not looking (18%) in Blackburn with Darwen were not doing so for a number of reasons e.g. long term sick, looking after family or student. Data for these categories is presented below. For some areas estimate and confidence interval are not available since the group sample size is zero or disclosive (0-2). Table 2.9: Causes of economic inactivity Long term sick Looking after family Student Blackburn with Darwen 7.8 4.8 2.0 Burnley 8.5 8.2 - Hyndburn 8.6 7.3 - Pendle 6.4 - - - - - Ribble Valley Rossendale 7.9 Pennine Lancashire 7.1 3.6 0.5 North West 7.8 5.2 3.6 England 6.6 5.8 3.6 Source: Annual Population survey – ONS crown copyright Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 28 2.8 Jobs density This measure gives an indication of the density of jobs in an area relative to the size of the working age population. The data used here is from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) and shows the number of jobs per resident aged 16-64 in an area. The total number of jobs is a workplace-based measure and comprises employee jobs, self-employed, governmentsupported trainees and HM Forces. Table 2.10 : Job density by district 2008 Jobs Density 2000 Density 2008 Change Blackburn with Darwen 72,000 0.83 0.84 + Burnley 38,000 0.76 0.72 - Hyndburn 34,000 0.66 0.70 + Pendle 37,000 0.69 0.68 - Ribble Valley 30,000 0.83 0.87 + Rossendale 25,000 0.69 0.61 - North West 3,393,000 0.75 0.76 + Great Britain 30,689,000 0.70 0.79 + Source: ONS jobs density, (ONS Crown copyright) The number of jobs in an area divided by the resident population aged 16-64 in that area, a job density of 1.0 would mean that there is one job for every resident aged 16-64. In 2008, Blackburn with Darwen had approximately 0.84 jobs for every resident aged 16-64. Jobs density varies by district, being highest in the Ribble Valley and lowest in Rossendale. Blackburn with Darwen and the Ribble Valley both have a higher job density than the regional or national average. Job density has increased over a period of time in the Ribble valley, Hyndburn and Blackburn with Darwen, the larges point difference being in Hyndburn and the Ribble Valley. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 29 2.9 Self employment Self employment can be used as a measure of levels of entrepreneurship in a particular area. According to the 2001 Census, % of Blackburn with Darwen’s working age population (males 1665 years and females 16-59 years were self employed compared to % in the North West region and % in England. The Annual population Survey, whilst not as robust as the 2001 census, produces more timely data on self employment. Within the Pennine Lancashire area, rates of self employment vary considerably, Ribble valley has the highest percentage of its population who are self employed 17.1% and Blackburn with Darwen has the lowest at 11.6%. Hyndburn and Pendle have experienced the largest percentage point increase in self employment rates over a 5 year period, up 7.5% points on 2005 levels. Between 2005 and 2009 five of the six Pennine Lancashire districts saw self employment rates increase (percentage point) by greater amounts than regional and national rates. Blackburn with Darwen being the exception, self-employment rates in the borough increased by 0.2% points, Table 2.11: Trend in self employment 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % point difference Blackburn with Darwen 11.4 9.7 11.6 10.5 11.6 +0.2 Burnley 10.5 7.8 7.5 9.1 17.1 +6.6 Hyndburn 10.5 10.0 8.7 15.2 18.0 +7.5 Pendle 10.2 8.7 9.9 13.9 17.6 +7.4 Ribble Valley 14.7 19.6 15.9 14.2 19.4 +4.7 Rossendale 17.0 13.9 8.5 6.2 14.9 -2.1 North West 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.7 +0.5 England 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.0 +0.7 Source: Annual population survey, Nomis, (ONS Crown copyright) Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 30 2.10 Unemployment The number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) gives us an indication of the level of unemployment in Pennine Lancashire and other comparator areas. Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) replaced Unemployment Benefit and Income Support for unemployed people on 7 October 1996. It is payable to people under pensionable age who are capable of, available for, and actively seeking work (usually be available to work at least 40 hours a week). Changes to the economy in the later part of 2008 have had a considerable impact nationally on the number of unemployed and therefore the claimant count. These changes have also been felt in Blackburn with Darwen and the Pennine Lancashire sub-region. Fig 2 : Blackburn with Darwen JSA claimant trend (N) Blackburn with Darwen 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-08 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 May-07 Feb-07 Nov-06 Aug-06 0 May-06 Number of unemployed 5,000 Fig 2.1 : Pennine Lancashire JSA claimant trend (N) Pennine Lancashire 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Aug-08 May-08 Feb-08 Nov-07 Aug-07 May-07 Feb-07 Nov-06 Aug-06 0 May-06 Number of unemployed 16,000 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 31 Between May 2008 and May 2009, the claimant count for both Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire increased at a fast rate, with the count in May 2009 being 4,363 in Blackburn with Darwen and 13,809 in Pennine Lancashire, an 83.8% increase in Blackburn with Darwen on May 2008 levels and 98.6% in Pennine Lancashire for the same period. Table 2.12: Percentage change in JSA claimants May 2008 to May 2009 Area % change % change Blackburn with Darwen 83.8% Rossendale 149.9% Burnley 86.3% Pennine Lancashire 98.6% Hyndburn 104.1% North West 76.8% Pendle 102.3% UK 88.1% Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) Ribble Valley 117.9% The claimant count reached a peak around August 2009 and since early 2010 the trend in claimant count has been decreasing when compared to the same month the previous year, such that by May 2010 many of the Pennine Lancashire districts had large decreases in their claimant counts. Table 2.13: Percentage change in JSA claimants May 2009 to May 2010 Area % change % change Blackburn with Darwen -12.2% Rossendale -26.3% Burnley -11.2% Pennine Lancashire -15.0% Hyndburn -16.1% North West -6.3% Pendle -14.6% UK -4.0% Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) Ribble Valley -15.4% At the time of writing, May 2010, the highest proportion of JSA claimants as a proportion of all Pennine Lancashire claimants is for Blackburn with Darwen with a third. Burnley accounts for one in five and the districts of Pendle and Hyndburn for one in six, Rossendale one in ten and Ribble valley for one in twenty of all claimants. Between May 2009 and May 2010, JSA claimant numbers decreased from 13,809 to 11,736 In Pennine Lancashire and from 4,363 to 3,831 in Blackburn with Darwen. The claimant figures highlight falling levels of JSA claimants in Pennine Lancashire (-15.0%) when compared to May 2009, the monthly change shows a -4.7% decrease. The largest percentage change in the number of claimants has been for Rossendale down -26.3%. Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley both have the lowest percentage decrease, down -12.2% and -11.2% respectively. The May claimant count proportion was 3.9% for the UK, 4.3% in the North West region within Pennine Lancashire proportions range from 1.4% in Ribble valley to 4.5% in Blackburn with Darwen Claimant count proportions are higher for males than for females in each Pennine Lancashire district, the highest being 6.4% in Blackburn with Darwen, higher than the regional and national average. Pendle, Rossendale and Hyndburn have rates of 5.2% or less. Ribble valley has the lowest male and female claimant proportions. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 32 The claimant count reached a peak around August 2009 and since early 2010 the trend in claimant count has been decreasing when compared to the same month the previous year, such that by May 2010 many of the Pennine Lancashire districts had large decreases in their claimant counts. 2.11 Age and duration In May 2009, claimants in Blackburn with Darwen aged 25-49 accounted for the greatest proportion of claimants, 61% (2155 claimants). Those under 25 accounted for a third of all claimants and the over 50s 7%. At the end of may 2009 It was the 50+ age group that had seen the largest increase in percentage terms in claimant since May 2008 (94.9%) compared to 88.0% for the 25-49 year olds and 76.5% for the under 25s. Table 2.14: Percentage change in JSA claimants May 2008 to May 2009 by age Area 18-24 25-49 50+ Blackburn with Darwen 76.5% 88.0% 94.9% Pennine Lancashire 88.0% 105.8% 107.5% NW 69.8% 80.6% 84.9% UK 81.8% 91.9% 92.6% Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) However by the end of May 2010 the 50+ age group has the largest decrease in claimants compared to May 2009 (56.5%) compared to a 5.3% decrease for 25-49 year olds and a 23.7% decrease for those aged 18-24. Table 2.15: Percentage change in JSA claimants May 2009 to May 2010 Area 18-24 25-49 50+ Blackburn with Darwen -23.7% -5.3% -56.5% Pennine Lancashire -22.1% -10.1% -58.8% NW -11.3% -2.9% -56.6% UK -8.1% -1.4% -54.6% Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) Unsurprisingly it was those claiming for less than six months that accounted for the greatest proportion of claimants (%) of the increase since July 2009. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 33 2.12 Claimants of key out of work benefits This indicator measures the ‘percentage of working age population who are claiming out of work benefits’ and includes the main out of work categories: Unemployed people on Jobseekers Allowance Lone parents on income support Incapacity Benefits customers Others on income related benefits (Income Support claimants not included in one of the three groups above). On average, 19,740 people within Blackburn with Darwen were claiming out of work benefits, at the end of November 2009, which is 22.5% of the working age population, this is the highest claimant rate of any Pennine Lancashire district. Ribble valley had the lowest percentage (8.6%) claiming out of work benefits. The rates for all other districts varied between these two rates, Hyndburn and Pendle being at the higher end whilst Rossendale rate was 16.9 roughly midway between the two extremes. Table 2.16: Out of work claimant rate Area Rate Blackburn with Darwen 22.5 Burnley 22.3 Hyndburn 20.3 Pendle 18.2 Ribble Valley 8.6 Rossendale 16.9 NW UK 18.3 15.0 Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) Fig 2.2: Out of work claimant rate Benefit Claimant rate 25.0 20.0 22.5 22.3 20.3 NW 18.2 15.0 16.9 GB 10.0 8.6 5.0 0.0 Blackburn with Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Rossendale Ribble Valley Darwen Source: Nomis (ONS Crown copyright) Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 34 2.13 Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings (ASHE) -Earnings Information on wage levels can be used to evaluate the living standards of the residents and the ability of residents to afford housing. The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) provides information about the levels, distribution and make-up of earnings and hours worked for employees in all industries and occupations in the United Kingdom. The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings is based on a sample of employee jobs taken from HM Revenue & Customs PAYE records. The survey for 2009, is based on 177,000 returns (146,000 in 2008). When analysing the level of earnings of Pennine Lancashire residents it is important to note the difference between incomes derived by residents who may or may not be commuting out to work (i.e. Residents Pay) and earnings derived from work within the county boundary alone (i.e. Local Workplace Pay). These two alternative data sets, of Median Weekly Pay, from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), are shown side by side in Table x. The ASHE results do not cover the self-employed, nor do they cover employees not paid during the reference period. For the ASHE results the median (middle value) is used in this article as the headline statistic. The median is the value below which 50% of employees are allocated and is more reflective of the 'typical' wage or income. It is preferred over the mean (average) for earnings data as it is influenced less by extreme values and because of the skewed distribution of earnings data. ASHE data shows the median resident based earnings for Blackburn with Darwen in 2008 was £429.3, while workplace based earnings was £438.2. One consequence of the overall lower level of competitiveness, and historically a high concentration of employment in traditional sectors, is that earnings of people working in Pennine Lancashire districts tend to be below those of the North West region as a whole and the UK average. This is highlighted by chart given below. it is important to note the differences between workplace based median earnings resident based earnings. Table 2.17: Resident and Workplace based earning for Pennine Lancashire districts Resident based Workplace Difference £ % earnings based earnings (workplace/resident) Blackburn with 429.3 438.2 -8.9 2.1% Darwen Burnley 413.5 387.9 25.6 -6.2% Hyndburn 405.2 394.6 10.6 -2.6% Pendle 408.6 382.7 25.9 -6.3% Ribble Valley 486.5 417.3 69.2 -14.2% Rossendale 477.6 387.7 89.9 -18.8% North West England 460.2 496.0 460.0 495.2 0.2 0.8 0.0% -0.2% Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 35 No significant difference between residents based earnings in Pennine Lancashire districts and north west The 2009 result reveals that the average median weekly earnings for residents (full time employees) in the Blackburn with Darwen area was £429.3, 12.6% lower than the national average of £491.0. Figure 2.3: Workplace and resident Median weekly earnings for Pennine Lancashire districts Rossendale Workplace Resident Ribble Valley Pendle Hyndburn Burnley Blackburn with Darwen 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 The gap between male and female wage rates remains substantial. The median male weekly earnings figure for Blackburn with Darwen residents of £443.2 is considerably higher than the female result of £398.1 (i.e. the median wage for female residents is 10.2% below that of male residents). Similarly the median male weekly earnings for those for whom Blackburn with Darwen is a place of work show female earnings to be £419.3 compared to an average of £443.3 for males, females earning in this case are 5.4% lower than that for males. In general terms, not taking into account the gender of wage earners, resident based earning are lower (2.0%) than for workplace earnings. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 36 2.14 Residence and Workplace by gender and FT/PT Table 2.18: Full time Resident and workplace earnings for males by district Male full-time Resident Workplace Difference % based based (£) (workplace/resident) earnings earnings Blackburn with Darwen 443.2 443.3 0.1 Burnley 413.5 400.9 -12.6 -3.0% Hyndburn 411.3 429.6 18.3 4.4% Pendle 454.1 419.2 -34.9 -7.7% Ribble Valley 607.1 429.0 -178.1 -29.3% Rossendale 509.3 445.7 -63.6 -12.5% North West 498.3 497.7 -0.6 UK 531.1 531.1 0 England 538.5 538.2 -0.3 Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS -0.1% -0.1% Median earnings for full-time males in Blackburn with Darwen (by residence or place of work) show no difference in average weekly earnings. The Ribble Valley shows the biggest difference (29.3%) between resident and workplace earnings, workplace earnings are £178 less than resident based earnings. Table 2.19: Full time Resident and workplace earnings for females by district Female full-time Resident Workplace Difference (£) % based based (workplace/resident) earnings earnings Blackburn with 398.1 419.3 Darwen 21.2 5.3% Burnley 392.6 377.1 -15.5 -3.9% Hyndburn 393.5 Pendle 366.9 315.8 -51.1 -13.9% Ribble Valley 412.5 397.4 -15.1 -3.7% Rossendale 389.8 319.7 -70.1 -18.0% North West 408.3 407.5 -0.8 UK 426.4 426.4 England 431.4 431.2 -0.2 Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS -0.2% - In Blackburn with Darwen the difference in earnings for females between resident and workplace based show that female residents median wage is £398.1, 5.3% lower than workplace based female earnings of £419.3. The largest wage differential between workplace and resident-based earnings amongst female full-time employees is (£70.1) in Rossendale. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 37 2.15 Earnings – Gender pay gap Table 2.20: Resident earnings for full time workers Resident based Male FT Female FT earnings Difference £ Blackburn with Darwen 443.2 398.1 -45.1 Burnley 413.5 392.6 -20.9 Hyndburn 411.3 393.5 -17.8 Pendle 454.1 366.9 -87.2 Ribble Valley 607.1 412.5 -194.6 Rossendale 509.3 389.8 -119.5 % (workplace/resident) -10.2% -5.1% -4.3% -19.2% -32.1% -23.5% North West 498.3 408.3 -90.0 -18.1% UK 531.1 426.4 -104.7 -19.7% England 538.5 431.4 -107.1 -19.9% Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS Crown copyright Table 2.21: Workplace earnings for full time workers Workplace based Male Female FT Difference (£) earnings FT Blackburn with Darwen 443.3 419.3 -24.0 Burnley 400.9 377.1 -23.8 Hyndburn 429.6 Pendle 419.2 315.8 -103.4 Ribble Valley 429 397.4 -31.6 Rossendale 445.7 319.7 -126.0 % (workplace/resident) -5.4% -5.9% -24.7% -7.4% -28.3% North West 497.7 407.5 -90.2 -18.1% UK 531.1 426.4 -104.7 -19.7% England 538.2 431.2 -107.0 -19.9% Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS Crown copyright The above tables show workplace place and resident earnings for full time male and female workers. The figures show that in Blackburn with Darwen by place of work female earnings are 5.4% lower than that for males, while for resident based earnings for females are 10.1% lower than that for males. Ribble Valley shows the largest difference in resident based earning for males and females, with female earnings a third less than that of males. In Rossendale female earnings are a 24% lower than that for males, while in Pendle, females earn a fifth less than males. Caution should be exercised when looking at gender pay gaps as they well in part be due to the types of work that males and females tend to do and the different level of pay associated with a particular occupation or industry Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 38 2.16 Median Gross Annual Earnings As well as providing data on average gross weekly earnings, the ASHE also provides information on average gross annual earnings. The figures are available down to the district level. The median earnings figures highlight the middle value for each area, therefore are not influenced by the very large salaries earned by a relatively small number of high fliers at the top of their professions. Table 2.22: Median Gross Annual Earnings for full time Employees by Place of Residence, April 2009 Full time males £ Full time females £ Full time employees £ GB=100 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale 24,711 21,596 21,933 23,021 31,462 26,886 20,100 18,281 x 18,004 21,366 18,493 23,101 20,765 x 21,635 24,645 23,408 89.1% 80.1% 83.4% 95.0% 90.3% % change 20082009 10.9 -6.0 -0.8 -4.3 -1.7 Lancashire (12 districts) Residence Lancashire (12 districts) Place of work 26,000 20,408 23,816 91.8% -0.7 90.2% -0.7 25,385 19,624 23,395 92.6% 100.0% 0.6 2.5 North West 26,346 20,744 24,000 Great Britain 28,415 22,180 25,931 Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings, through Nomis, ONS Median earnings for all employees by place of residence in GB for April 2009 stood at £25,931. For the Lancashire County Council area, the residence-based figure for all employees was £23,816, 8.1% lower than the national average. Blackburn with Darwen’s resident-based figure of £23,101 is 10.9% lower than the national average and 3.1% lower than the Lancashire County council (12 district average). The gender split reveals that for the Blackburn with Darwen, gross annual median earnings for female residents are 18.6% lower than gross annual median earnings for males, this equates to £4,611 less for females than males. In general terms the results for 14 local authorities broadly reflect what would be expected. Fylde district manages to top the list with an average of £28,211. Lancaster, South Ribble, Ribble valley, Chorley and Preston all recorded figures of £24k or more. Districts recording figures of less than this include many of the districts in the east of the county. Burnley and Pendle recorded median wage levels around £21,600 or lower. Blackburn with Darwen and Rossendale recorded median wage levels higher than £21,600 but lower than £24K earned in other parts of the county. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 39 2.17 Gross disposable household income (GDHI) Gross disposable household income is the amount of money that individuals – the household sector have available for spending or saving. This is money left after expenditure associated with income, for example, taxes and social contributions, property ownership and provision for future pension income. It is calculated gross of any deductions for capital consumption. GDHI data comes from the regional accounts and makes up the household section of the input-output model. Total GDHI in the North West was £92.0bn, up 4.2 per cent from £88.4bn in 2007. The North West annual increase is below that of the UK (4.6 per cent). Among the five ‘NUTS2’ sub-regions, Greater Manchester had the largest GDHI (£33.5bn or over one third of the North West total) and Cumbria the smallest (£6.9bn). Lancashire’s share of the North West total is £18.6bn or one fifth). Blackburn with Darwen’s share of the North West total is 1.7% or £1.5bn, its share of the Lancashire total is 8.2% while Blackpool’s share is 8.9%. Of the thirteen ‘NUTS 3’ areas in the region, Blackpool is the only region to experience a higher annual increase (5.2 per cent) in GDHI since 2007 than the UK. Out of 133 ‘NUTS 3’ areas in the UK, Blackburn with Darwen is ranked 125th (in the bottom ten), and Blackpool 122nd. with respect to GDHI 2.18 Sub regional GDHI per head, 2008 GDHI per head for Blackburn with Darwen in 2008 is £10,880, Blackpool £11,362 and Lancashire County Council £13,230. GDHI per head relative to the UK (where the UK=100) for Blackburn with Darwen in 2008 is 73.1, Blackpool 78.2 and Lancashire County Council 89.0. Blackburn with Darwen has consistently lower levels of GDHI per head than either Blackpool UA, Lancashire County Council. Blackburn with Darwen is ranked 131st (in the bottom five), no change from the previous years ranking. Blackpool is ranked 128th and Lancashire County Council 75 th with respect to GDHI per head Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 40 Table 2.23: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) 2008 Total GDHI Increase GDHI Increase £ million on 2007 per on 2007 per cent head per cent UK 913,964 4.6 14,872 3.9 North West 92,041 4.2 13,386 4.0 Blackburn w Darwen Blackpool Lancashire County Council Lancashire Per head index (UK=100) 100 90.0 1,531 1,651 15,466 4.5 5.2 4.5 10,880 11,632 13,230 4.6 5.6 4.4 73.2 78.2 89.0 18,648 4.5 12,846 4.5 86.4 Source: Gross Disposable Household income Table 2.24 : Sub-regional GDHI per head for NUTS 3 sub-regions Blackburn with (UK=100) Blackpool (UK=100) Darwen 2002 8,907 73.0 10,243 83.9 2003 9,288 72.8 10,436 81.8 2004 9,515 72.9 10,427 79.8 2005 9,907 73.1 10,616 78.3 2006 10,209 73.3 10,862 77.9 2007 10,402 72.7 11,011 76.9 2008 10,880 73.1 11,632 78.2 Lancashire County Council 10,889 11,363 11,608 12,059 12,401 12,676 13,230 (UK=100) 89.2 89.1 88.9 89.0 89.0 88.5 89.0 Source: Gross Disposable Household income Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 41 Chapter Three : Business and Enterprise This chapter profiles Blackburn with Darwen’s and the Pennine Lancashire in terms of its economic size, structure and business climate. 3.1 Output and productivity In its simplest form, Gross Value Added (GVA) is a key measure of the value of goods and services that an area produces. GVA, and particularly GVA growth, is an important indicator of the overall health of a local economy and is used to monitor the competitiveness and productivity of the economy. It is calculated by summing the incomes generated in the production process. In 2007, Blackburn with Darwen produced £2.1bn. This constitutes 2% of the total North West GVA and 9% of the total Lancashire GVA Table 3: Gross Value Added In Blackburn with Darwen Total GVA GVA per (£) head (£) Blackburn with Darwen 2,085m 14,800 Lancashire County Council* 18,620m 15,940 Lancashire 22,470m 15,481 North West 116,466m 16,967 United Kingdom 1,245,735m 20,430 Average annual GVA growth rate 1997-2007 3.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.6% 5.4% Source: Local GVA, 2007 Growth rates year on year for Blackburn with Darwen have been consistently lower than the regional and UK average. Blackburn with Darwen’s growth rate is also consistently lower than the growth rates of Lancashire and Lancashire County Council 12 districts. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 42 Figure 3 GVA Growth rates (year-on-year) 1996-2007 8.0% UNITED KINGDOM 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% GVA Growth rate (%) GVA Growth rate (%) 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 8.0% North West Blackburn with Darwen GVA Growth rate (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 Over the 10 years between 1997 and 2007, average annual growth rates for Blackburn with Darwen was 3.2%, Blackpool 2.9%, and Lancashire County Council 4.4%, all are much lower compared to the UK average of 5.4%. Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool both have lower growth rates than the Lancashire Average of 4.1%. GVA can be broken down by broad industry sector. Table 3.1 shows GVA by broad industry sector for Blackburn with Darwen Table 3.1 : Gross Value Added In Blackburn with Darwen by sector Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution, transport and communication Business services and finance Public administration, education, health and other services All sectors Source: 1995 2007 0.3% 44.8% 4.8% 18.0% 11.8% 0.2% 27.1% 5.1% 20.6% 17.1% % change 1995-2007 -75.0% -34.6% 103.9% 40.9% 52.4% 20.3% - 30.0% - 72.5% 42.2% Chart 3.1 shows GVA by year as a proportion of total GVA for Blackburn with Darwen. In 1995 production accounted for 44.8% of total GVA, since then its share as a proportion of total GVA has steadily declined such that in 2006 it accounted for 27.1% of total GVA, a decrease of 34.6%. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 43 Figure 3.1 Production and Public sector GVA as proportion of total GVA by year 50.0% 45.0% 44.8% Production 43.4% 42.1% 40.3% 40.0% Public admin, Education, Health 38.4% 36.6% 35.0% 34.6% 32.6% 30.4% 30.0% 28.7% 25.0% 28.4% 20.0% 20.3% 21.1% 21.6% 1 995 1 996 1 997 22.7% 23.7% 24.6% 22.0% 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 25.9% 27.2% 27.7% 29.6% 30.0% 27.1% 30.1% 26.3% 2 006 2 007 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 The proportion of GVA accounted for by Public administration, education and health has in the same period grown from 20% of total GVA in 1995 to 30% of total GVA in 2006, an increase of 72.5%. 3.2 Productivity and GVA per head Productivity is defined as the ratio between outputs and inputs in an economy. GVA per head is the most frequently used measure of productivity, it measures the value of goods and services that a local area produces as a proportion of the number of residents who live there. Table 3.2 shows that GVA per head is lowest for Blackburn with Darwen (£14,800/per head) and is lower than the regional and national average. Table 3.2: Gross Value Added per head in Blackburn with Darwen Total GVA per % change GVA (£) head (£) 1995-2007 Blackburn with Darwen 2,085m 14,800 42.8% Lancashire County 18,620m 15,940 60.3% Council* Lancashire 22,470m 15,481 57.8% North West 116,466m 16,967 70.3% United Kingdom 1,245,735m 20,430 81.3% Source: Average annual GVA per head growth rate 1997-2007 3.0% 4.0% 3.9% 4.5% 5.0% Average growth rates for GVA per head is lowest for Blackburn with Darwen compared to local, regional and national levels. Since 1995 Blackburn with Darwen GVA per head has increased 42.8% from £10,363 in 1995 to £14,800 in 2007. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 44 Fig 3.2 Average GVA per head growth rate UNITED KINGDOM 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% GVA per head (%) 5.0% GVA per head (%) Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool 6.0% North W est 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 0.0% 1 996 1 997 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 Figure 3.2 shows GVA per head growth rates (year on year), from 1996 to 2000, GVA per head growth rates in Blackburn with Darwen lagged behind those of Blackpool, Lancashire and Lancashire County Council 12 district rates. However, since this date average growth rates per head have varied but have been higher than Blackpool but still lag behind those of Lancashire and Lancashire county council 12 district rates. 3.3 Economic Structure The economic structure of an area shapes and influences many of the issues that affect an area. In Pennine Lancashire manufacturing represents a just over a fifth of total employment in the sub-region. Pendle and Ribble valley have the largest share of manufacturing as a proportion of the total when compared to the other districts. Hyndburn has the smallest share at 17.6%. Public administration, education and health also appear to represent a large share of total employment in all districts. NB Figures are rounded up or down, Percentages based on actual numbers Table 3.3: Blackburn with Darwen Employment Structure Male Total Female N % Part time N % Full time N % N % Industry N % Agriculture and fishing 30 43.0% 40 57.0% 30 34.2% 50 67.1% 80 0.1% Energy and water 20 92.0% 5 8.0% 5 8.0% 20 92.0% 25 0.0% Manufacturing 9,500 73.7% 3,350 26.3% 900 7.1% 11,800 92.9% 12,700 20.3% Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance Public administration, education & health Other services 1,750 82.6% 360 17.4% 150 7.4% 1,950 92.6% 2,100 3.4% 6,300 50.8% 6,100 49.2% 5,400 43.0% 7,100 57.0% 12,400 19.9% 2,200 72.2% 850 27.7% 450 15.1% 2,600 84.9% 3,000 4.8% 5,000 52.5% 4,500 47.5% 2,100 21.8% 7,400 78.2% 9,500 15.2% 4,600 24.4% 14,250 75.6% 6,400 34.0% 12,400 66.0% 18,850 30.1% 2,300 59.1% 1,600 40.9% 1,750 46.0% 2,100 54.0% 3,800 6.1% Total 31,500 50.4% 31,000 49.6% 17,200 27.4% 45,400 72.6% 62,600 100.0% Source: Nomis Annual Business Inquiry 2008 ONS Crown copyright 2008 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 45 Table 3.3 shows that nearly three quarters (72.6%) of Blackburn with Darwen workforce is in full time employment. There is, however considerable variation in full time employment between sectors, a large majority is employed full time in manufacturing (92.9%) to just over a half (54%) in other services. Just under a half of the workforce is female 49.6%, of these around 45.9% or 14,254 are employed in public service organisations. Again there is considerable variation of female employment by sector, ranging from 75.6% of employment in the Public sector to 8% in Energy and Water and 17.4% in construction. It is apparent that sectors that are female dominated Public services (75.6%), Distribution, hotels and restaurants (49.2%) and banking fiancé and insurance (47.5%). These sectors also have a high proportion of jobs which are of a part time nature, two fifths of jobs in distribution is part-time compared to a third in Public administration, education and health and a fifth in Distribution, hotels and restaurants. Male dominated sectors Construction Manufacturing Transport and communications Female dominated sectors Public Services Distribution, hotels and restaurants Banking finance and insurance Sectors with high proportion part time working Distribution, hotels and restaurants Other services Public administration education and health Agriculture and fishing Only 70.6% of the Pennine Lancashire workforce is in full time employment. The highest percentage of full time jobs in Pennine Lancashire (excluding Agriculture and fishing, Energy and water) is in Manufacturing with 93.7% and construction 90.8%. These are based on total jobs of 41,000 in manufacturing and 8,300 for construction. Distribution, hotels and restaurants employ 27,000 people only 58% of this is full-time. Public administration education and health employs 34,000 59% of this is full-time. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 46 Economic structure has a significant impact on the performance of local economies and influences their growth potential. The graph below shows the distribution of employment by sector for each Pennine Lancashire district. Fig 3.3: Distribution of sectors by district 100.0% 90.0% 30.1% 80.0% 28.3% 29.9% 13.4% 10.6% 26.4% 27.7% 24.7% 10.0% 8.6% 11.9% 21.7% 24.2% 7.1% 4.3% 26.9% 26.2% Pendle Ribble Valley 28.4% 70.0% 60.0% 15.2% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 19.9% 25.3% 3.4% 3.7% 27.3% 4.7% 20.3% 18.7% 17.6% Blackburn with Burnley Hyndburn 10.0% 23.6% 12.3% 23.0% 6.0% 4.6% 22.7% 21.7% Rossendale Pennine Lancs 0.0% Darwen Agriculture and fishing Manufacturing Distribution, hotels and restaurants Banking, finance and insurance Other services Energy and water Construction Transport and communications Public administration,education & health Three sectors Manufacturing, Distribution, hotels and restaurants and Public administration, education and health play a prominent role in terms of employment within these areas. Table 3.4: Distribution of sectors by district BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Rossendale 30,400 Ribble Valley 25,200 21,300 Pennine Lancashire 200,800 63,000 32,600 28,700 Agriculture and fishing 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% Energy and water 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 20.3% 18.7% 17.6% 26.9% 26.2% 22.7% 21.7% 3.4% 3.7% 4.7% 7.1% 4.3% 6.0% 4.6% 19.9% 25.3% 27.3% 21.7% 24.2% 23.6% 23.0% Transport and communications 4.8% 4.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.7% 5.7% 4.1% Banking, finance and insurance 15.2% 13.4% 10.6% 10.0% 8.6% 11.9% 12.3% Public administration, education & health 30.1% 28.3% 29.9% 26.4% 27.7% 24.7% 28.4% 6.1% 5.7% 4.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.9% 5.2% Industry Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Other services Source: Nomis Annual Business Inquiry 2008 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 47 The same data given above is charted for each Pennine Lancashire district, to enable a better visual comparison to be made. Each bar presents the number of jobs in a sector expressed as a percentage of all jobs at that geography. A summary for each area is provided on the following page. 30.1% Public administration, education and health Manufacturing Distribution, hotels and restaurants Banking, finance and Insurance Other services Distribution, hotels and restaurants 19.9% Manufacturing 15.2% 28.4% Public administration, education & health 20.3% Other 6.1% Banking, finance and Insurance 21.7% Distribution, hotels and restaurants 12.3% Banking, finance and insurance 4.6% Transport and communications 4.1% Transport and coomunications Construction Public administration, education and health 23.0% Distribution, hotels and restaurants 22.7% Banking, finance and Insurance 28.2% 23.5% 6.6% Transport and coomunications 5.8% Construction 5.2% Other services 4.9% 5.6% 4.8% Construction 3.4% Agriculture and fishing 0.1% Agriculture and fishing 0.6% Energy and water 0.2% Agriculture and fishing 0.7% Energy and water 0.0% Energy and water 0.2% Agriculture and fishing 0.2% Energy and water 0.3% Blackburn with Darwen Other services Pennine Lancashire 4.8% Greater Manchester 26.4% 23.5% Banking, finance and Insurance 11.6% Transport and coomunications Public administration, education and health Distribution, hotels and restaurants 19.7% Manufacturing 10.3% Manufacturing 5.2% Construction 26.6% Public administration, education and health 23.0% 22.7% Manufacturing 10.1% 6.0% Transport and coomunications Other services North West Construction 5.3% 4.6% England & Wales Agricult ure and fishing 0.9% Energy and water 0.5% 29.9% Public administration Distribution, hotels and restaurants 27.3% 17.6% Manufacturing Banking, finance and Insurance Construction 27.7% Manufacturing 26.2% Distribution, hotels and restaurants 24.2% Banking, finance and Insurance 10.6% 4.7% Other services 4.0% Transport and coomunications 4.0% Public administration Hyndburn 8.6% Public administration Distribution, hotels and restaurants 25.3% Manufacturing 18.7% Banking, finance and Insurance Construction 4.3% Other services Other services 4.1% Transport and coomunications Transport and coomunications 2.7% 28.3% Ribble Valley Construction 26.9% Public administration 26.4% Distribution, hotels and restaurants 13.4% 21.7% Banking, finance and Insurance 5.7% 10.0% Construction 4.5% 3.7% Manufacturing Other services Burnley 24.7% Distribution, hotels and restaurants 23.6% Manufacturing 22.7% Banking, finance and Insurance 7.1% 5.1% Transport and coomunications 2.0% Public administration Pendle 11.9% Construction 6.0% Transport and coomunications 5.7% Other services 4.9% Energy and water 1.0% Agriculture and fishing 2.0% Agriculture and fishing 0.4% Agriculture and fishing 0.6% Agriculture and fishing 0.6% Agriculture and fishing 0.9% Energy and water 0.4% Energy and water 0.1% Energy and water 0.1% Energy and water 0.1% Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 48 Rossendale 3.4 District overview - employees Blackburn with Darwen In all, around 31.2% of Pennine Lancashire employment is with organisations based in Blackburn with Darwen. Manufacturing accounts for a fifth of employment in Blackburn with Darwen compared to 11.6% in the North West. Distribution hotels and restaurants account for a further fifth compared to a quarter for the North West. Public services accounts for the highest proportion of employment in Blackburn with Darwen with 30.1%. Banking, finance and Insurance accounts for 19.7% in the North West compared to 15.2% in Blackburn with Darwen. Burnley Around 16.2% of Pennine Lancashire employment is with organisations based in Burnley, like other districts Public services is the biggest employer in Burnley, (3 rd highest in Pennine Lancashire after Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn) with 28.3% of all employment,. Distribution hotels and restaurants account for a quarter and manufacturing for 17.6%. Burnley has the second highest employment in Banking, finance and Insurance. Hyndburn Has the fourth highest proportion of employee jobs (14.3%) in Pennine Lancashire, whilst employment is strongly skewed in Public services (29.9%), distribution, hotels and restaurants accounts for (27.3%) and manufacturing (17.6%) of all employment. Within Pennine Lancashire the Agricultural sector is the 2nd largest in Hyndburn after Ribble Valley. Of all Pennine Lancashire districts Energy and water sector is the largest in Hyndburn account for 60% of all Pennine Lancashire jobs in this sector. Ribble Valley The Ribble Valley is a large and rural district accounting for the 2 nd lowest proportion of employee jobs (12.6%) in Pennine Lancashire after Rossendale. Over a quarter of all jobs are in concentrated in two main sectors, manufacturing accounts for 26.2% of all Ribble Valley employment and Public services for 27.7%. Ribble Valley is Pennine Lancashire’s main Agriculture and fishing centre accounting for 39.4% of all Pennine Lancashire employment in the district. Construction employment is lowest in Ribble Valley as is Banking, finance and insurance services employment. Pendle Pendle provides the 3rd highest employment of all Pennine Lancashire districts with 15.1% of all employment. As with the other districts, Public services is the largest employer accounting for 28.4% of all Pendle employment. Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants accounts for a quarter of employment and manufacturing a further fifth. Rossendale Rossendale accounts for the lowest share of all Pennine Lancashire employment, providing just over 10%, as with other districts Public services (28.4%), distribution hotels and restaurants (21.7%) and manufacturing (23.0%) are the three largest sectors. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 49 Table 3.5 below shows the new SIC 2007 codes breakdown of employment for Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire, regional and national comparators are also provided. The table highlights the relative importance of manufacturing, wholesale and retail and health and social work sectors to both the Blackburn with Darwen economy and the Pennine Lancashire sub-region. It is important ant to note that if public administration, education and health are combined then the three sectors account for 30.1% of total employment in Blackburn with Darwen and 28.3% in Pennine Lancashire and 28.2% in the North West. (NB, figures vary slightly to previous table, 3.14 due to rounding) Table 3.5: Employment by sector using SIC 2007 Industry Blackburn with Pennine Darwen Lancashire N % N % Agriculture, forestry 100 0.1% 880 0.4% and fishing Mining and quarrying 0 0.0% 100 0.0% Manufacturing 12,300 19.7% 42500 21.2% Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 100 0.0% 100 0.0% supply Water supply 300 0.5% 1300 0.7% Construction 2,200 3.5% 9600 4.8% Wholesale and retail 10,000 16.0% 35300 17.6% trade Transportation and 2,100 3.3% 5900 3.0% storage Accommodation and 2,500 3.9% 10700 5.3% food service activities Information and 2,100 3.3% 4000 2.0% communication Financial and 850 1.3% 3000 1.5% insurance activities Real estate activities 600 1.0% 2300 1.2% Professional, scientific and technical 2,800 4.4% 7500 3.8% activities Administrative and support service 4,600 7.3% 11100 5.5% activities Public administration 3,600 5.7% 8200 4.0% and defence Education 6,000 9.7% 21600 10.8% Human health and 9,200 14.7% 27100 13.5% social work activities Arts, entertainment 2,300 3.6% 5400 2.7% and recreation Other service 1,300 2.0% 4300 2.1% activities Total 63,000 100.0% 200,900 100.0% Greater Manchester N % North West England N % N % 0.1% 1,200 17,300 0.6% 172,700 0.7% 0.0% 9.8% 300 144,200 2,000 333,700 0.1% 11.1% 26,200 2,175,900 0.1% 9.4% 0.1% 800 4,750 0.2% 63,400 0.3% 0.6% 5.9% 6,500 68,330 18,400 165,200 0.6% 5.5% 127,200 1,136,500 0.6% 4.9% 16.7% 194,100 500,600 16.7% 3843,400 16.7% 5.4% 62,100 141,500 4.7% 1,107,300 4.8% 5.8% 67,300 202,750 6.7% 1,544,00 6.7% 2.9% 33,100 80,050 2.7% 914,600 4.0% 4.3% 50,100 108,000 3.6% 945,400 4.1% 1.5% 17,100 40,500 1.3% 326,650 1.4% 7.2% 83,300 179,400 6.0% 1,638,500 7.1% 9.1% 105,200 234,100 7.8% 1,931,200 8.4% 5.2% 60,100 167,800 5.6% 1,202,000 5.2% 9.3% 107,400 288,800 9.6% 2,181,700 9.5% 12.1% 141,100 390,000 13.0% 2,689,000 11.7% 2.0% 23,500 65,900 2.2% 5,54700 2.4% 2.2% 25,400 64,300 2.1% 4,93950 2.1% 3,005,100 100.0% 21,530,300 100.0% 100.0% 1191130 Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 NB Figures are rounded up or down, Percentages based on actual numbers Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 50 3.5 Sectors – Change over time The following section provides a more detailed commentary on changes in sector employment over the last decade using SIC 2003 codes since they provide a long term picture of employment by sector in each of the Pennine Lancashire areas and enables changes over a 10 year period to be calculated. 3.5.1 Manufacturing sub-sectors Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show employment by manufacturing sub-sector as a proportion of all jobs in manufacturing. Fig 3.5: Blackburn with Darwen 1998 Fig 3.6: Pennine Lancashire 1998 2008 Non metallic mineral products 2008 Non metallic mineral products Transport equipment Transport equipment Machinery and equipment Machinery and equipment Food, drink and tobacco Food, drink and tobacco Optical and electrical equipment Optical and electrical equipment Chemicals & man-made fibres Chemicals & man-made fibres Tex tiles/products,leather/products Tex tiles/products,leather/products Pulp,paper/products; Pulp,paper/products; Timber,rubber,plastic Timber,rubber,plastic 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 5 10 15 20 25 51 3.5.2 Textiles Between 1998 and 2008, the textiles industry experienced significant change, textiles went from accounting 21% of jobs in the sub-region in 1998 to 10% of all jobs in the sector in 2008. Blackburn with Darwens share of textile jobs as a proportion of all jobs fell by 4.3% points between 1998 and 2008. Blackburn’s share of textiles as a proportion of all jobs was 16.8% in 1998 by 2008 this had fallen to 12.6%. By far the largest decrease in textiles jobs as a proportion of all jobs has been in Burnley which has seen a 90% fall in employment in this sector over 10 years, textile employment now accounts for 4.3% of all manufacturing compared to 20.8% in 1998. Compared to other districts in Pennine Lancashire Blackburn’s with Darwen has the smallest decrease. Table 3.6: Number employed in textiles as a proportion of all manufacturing Textiles Number Proportion of all % change employed manufacturing jobs 1998-2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 Blackburn with Darwen 3,328 1600 16.8 12.6 -51.9% Burnley 2,733 259 20.4 4.3 -90.5% Hyndburn 2,181 609 23.4 12.0 -72.1% Pendle 2,656 906 20.6 11.1 -65.9% Ribble Valley 476 105 6.3 1.6 -77.9% Rossendale 3,394 782 38.5 16.2 -77.0% Pennine Lancashire 14,768 4,261 20.6 9.8 -71.1% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 ONS crown copyright 3.5.3 Food, drink and tobacco Food and manufacturing has over time increased its share of all manufacturing jobs, in 1998 this sector accounted for 6.8% of all manufacturing jobs in the Pennine Lancashire sub region by 2008 its share had increased to 8.2%. The food and drinks sector in Blackburn with Darwen accounts for over a quarter of all Pennine Lancashire manufacturing jobs, Pendle and Ribble Valley both account for a fifth. Between 1998 and 2008 food and drinks went from accounting 5.8% of all manufacturing jobs in Ribble Valley to 11.0% of all jobs in 2008 and in Burnley its share went up from 3.2% to 6.9%. 3.5.4 Optical and Electrical Equipment As a sector, the manufacture of optical and electrical equipment has decreased, this sector accounted for 7.3% of all manufacturing jobs in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region in 1998 its share has fallen to 5.9% in 2008. Blackburn with Darwen and Rossendale hold the highest share of manufacturing jobs in this sector with Blackburn accounting for 39% and Rossendale a fifth of all jobs in Pennine Lancashire. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 52 3.5.5 Pulp, paper/products: printing Printing constitutes 9.3% of manufacturing jobs in the Pennine sub-region, at 49.1% Blackburn with Darwen holds the highest share of manufacturing jobs in this sector, Hyndburn share is 19.4% and Burnley’s is 13.2% between them these three areas account for four fifths of all printing jobs in Pennine Lancashire sub-region. 3.5.6 Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing of machinery and equipment represents 7.3% of the sub-regions manufacturing jobs in 2008, since 1998 it has increased its share by 0.5 of a percentage point, with the exception of Ribble Valley each district in the sub-region accounts for between a sixth and a quarter of all manufacturing jobs in this sector, Blackburn with Darwen has the highest share of manufacturing jobs in this sector with 23%, closely followed by Pendle with 21.1% and Hyndburn with 18.8%. Ribble valley’s share of manufacturing jobs in the machinery and equipment sector is 2.9% of all sub-regional jobs in this sector. 3.5.7 Transport and Equipment The manufacture of transport and equipment accounts for 15.9% of all manufacturing jobs in the sub-region, the lion’s share of jobs in this sector is in Ribble Valley which accounts for 52.9%, Pendle and Burnley account for 19.5% and 17.7% respectively. Blackburn with Darwen’s share is 4.6% and Rossendale and Hyndburn have approximately 3%. With the exception of Blackburn with Darwen and Pendle all other districts in the sub-region increased their share over the period, some by a modest amount and other by a large amount. Blackburn’s share decreased by half a percentage point from 3% to 2.5% while Pendle’s decreased by 2 percentage points. Between 1998 and 2008 Burnley has increased its share by 11.2% points, up from 9.0% in 1998 to 20.2% in 2008, Ribble Valley’s share increased by 9.2% points over the same period. 3.5.8 Chemicals and man-made fibres Employment in chemicals and man-made fibres manufacturing has remained relatively stable, accounting for 6.2% of all manufacturing jobs in Pennine Lancashire in 1998 and 7% in 2008. Blackburn with Darwen has the highest proportion (44.7%) of the sub-regions jobs in this sector and Pendle the lowest (2.9%)/ 3.5.9 Non-metallic minerals The manufacture of non-metallic minerals accounted for 2.4% of all manufacturing jobs in the sub-region in 2008. Ribble Valley manufactures a high proportion of non-metallic mineral products (46.9% of all the sub-region’s non-metallic minerals manufacturing), Blackburn with Darwen produces a fifth and Pendle approximately 15%, together these three areas account for 80% of manufacturing in this sector. In 1998 the sector accounted for 9.3% of all jobs in Ribble Valley, by 2008 this had decreased to 7.3%. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 53 3.6 Services sector Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire service sector employment has increased over the 10 year period between 1998 and 2008. In Blackburn with Darwen the service sector accounted for two thirds and manufacturing a third of employment in 1998, by 2008 Blackburn with Darwen saw its share (proportion) of service employment increase to 73% at the same time the manufacturing sector reduced its share to 27%. The graph below trends the share of the two broad sectors over the period in Blackburn with Darwen. The trend for Pennine Lancashire is similar to that shown for Blackburn with Darwen. Fig 3.7: Employment in manufacturing and service sector as a proportion of total Blackburn with Darwen 80.0% manufacturing & serv ice sector employment 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Serv ice 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Manufacturing 10.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Annual Business Inquiry - ONS, crown copyright reserved NB: Service sector: Wholesale & Retail, Hotels and restaurants, transport storage and communications, Financial intermediation, Public administration education and health. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 54 3.6.1 Wholesale & retail distribution:repair The wholesale and retail trade sub-sector (SIC 50, 51, 52) accounts for 17.7% of jobs in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region and 16% in Blackburn with Darwen and between 1998 and 2008 the subsector grew by 1.6% points in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region and decreased by -2.2% points in Blackburn with Darwen. Ribble valley experienced much growth in the sector over the 10 year period increasing by 18.8%, there was modest growth in other districts of between 2-4%. Hyndburn has decreased its share of wholesale and retail trade employment by 3.0%, shedding some 200 jobs in the 10 year period. 3.6.2 Visitor economy: Hotels and restaurants The hotels and restaurants sub-sector (SIC 55) accounts for 5.3% of all jobs in Pennine Lancashire, over the 10 year period employment in this sector has decreased by 8.8%. The subsector is most prominent in Ribble Valley where it accounts for 9.6% of all jobs in that district. Ribble Valley’s share of jobs in this sector as a proportion of all Hotel and restaurants jobs in Pennine Lancashire sub-region is 22.4%. Blackburn with Darwen’s share is 22.6%. Over the 10 year period Hyndburn has experienced a 52.3% decrease in the number of people employed in this sector while Ribble valley has experienced a 25.4% increase. 3.6.3 Public administration, Education and health The Pennine Lancashire sub-region has a high proportion of employment in the public sector, in 2008 this sector accounted for 28.4% of all employment. The public sector component is made up of public administration & defence, education, health and social work. While public administration has decreased by 25.6% over the 10 years in Pennine Lancashire, education and health have increased by 44.1% and 24.3% respectively. In 2008 56,943 persons were employed in this sector compared to 47,812 in 1998, an increase of 19.1% Within Blackburn with Darwen Public sector employment is 30.1%, as a proportion of all Public sector jobs in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region Blackburn with Darwen’s share of public administration and defence component is 44.2%. The share for other districts is given below In many towns within the Pennine Lancashire sub-region, the public sector is a major employer, this employment has in some cases propped up the local economy when private sector has been in decline. Table below shows Public administration as a share of Public sector jobs and Pennine Lancashire jobs. Table 3.7: Public sector employment Public admin & % of all jobs in Public defence Pennine Lancs. Sector* Blackburn with 3,589 44.2% 18,852 Darwen Burnley 981 12.1% 9,229 Hyndburn 1,091 13.4% 8,594 Pendle 1,311 16.1% 8,028 Ribble Valley 781 9.7% 6,993 Rossendale 357 4.4% 5,247 Pennine Lancashire 8,118 100% 56,943 Source: Annual Business Inquiry - ONS, crown copyright reserved % of all jobs in Pennine Lancs.* 33.1% % of all jobs in district* 30.1% % change 1998-2008* 9.2% 16.2% 15.1% 14.1% 12.3% 9.2% 100% 28.3% 29.9% 26.4% 27.7% 24.7% 28.4% -3.2% 34.1% 30.5% 50.5% 38.0% 19.1% *Amalgamation of public administration, education and health Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 55 3.6.4 Transport, storage and communications Transport and communications makes up 4.1% of all employment in the sub-region, in Blackburn with Darwen its share of all jobs is 4.8%. Blackburn with Darwen accounts for 37.2% of all transport and communications jobs in Pennine Lancashire, Burnley (18.0%), Hyndburn (14.0%), Rossendale (14.0%), Pendle (7.5%) and Ribble Valley (8.4%). In real terms this sector lost 30.1% of jobs between 1998 and 2008 in Pennine Lancashire. Rossendale experienced the largest decrease of -72.3% over 10 years, employing 4,338 persons in 1998 to 1,216 in 2008. Ribble valley experienced a decrease of -30.1% 3.6.5 Financial Intermediation Burnley and Hyndburn have all experienced significant growth in financial intermediation employment (SIC 65, 66, 67) between 1998 and 2008. Hyndburn has seen the largest percentage increase up 54.0% on 1998 levels while Burnley saw a 14% increase. Blackburn with Darwen experienced the largest decrease of any Pennine Lancashire authority, just under a third (31%) over the period. Pendle saw its employment in this sector decrease by 27.9% and Ribble Valley by 18.5%. Between them Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley account for 54.7% of all financial intermediation employment in the sub-region, Hyndburn accounts for 17.9% and Pendle 13.2%. Between 1998 and 2008 there was a 8.9% decrease in financial intermediation employment in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 56 3.6 Creative and digital The North West is home to the largest cluster of Creative and digital industries outside London. The Northwest regional development Agency (NWDA) estimates that over 140,000 people across the North West are employed in the creative and media industries. The region has long enjoyed a well-earned reputation for outstanding creativity and artistic innovation. Its creative success has historically been based around music but today it is increasingly focused on film, digital media, computer games and television-related activities. This sector has been identified as a priority growth sector. The following are the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003 codes for Creative and digital industry sector: 74.4 Advertising; 74.81 Photographic; 72.2 Software consultancy and supply; 92.1-2,4 Film and video, radio and TV, news agency The Pennine Lancashire sub-region has 1800 jobs in the Creative and digital media sector in 2008, employment grew by 56% between 1998 and 2008 and business units by four fifths over the same period, the increase in employment in Pennine Lancashire is higher than the regional but lower than the national average. Creative and digital sector employment grew by half both nationally and in the region. Within Blackburn with Darwen employment in this sector increased or grew by 86% and number of business units increased by 90%. In 2008 Blackburn with Darwen accounted for 38% of employment in this sector and Pendle a quarter (23%), employment in this sector was lowest in the Ribble Valley and Rossendale (both of whom accounted for 9% of jobs). Hyndburn and Burnley each account for approximately 12% of jobs 3.7 ICT and telecommunications The following are the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003 codes for ICT and Telecommunications sector: 64 Post and telecommunications 72 Computer and Related (Excluding 72.2) The Pennine Lancashire sub-region has over 3600 jobs in the ICT and telecommunications sector in 2008, employment grew by a quarter between 1998 and 2008 and business units by % over the same period, the increase in employment in this sector in Pennine Lancashire is higher than the regional and national average. Regionally jobs in this sector grew by 8% while nationally they decreased by less than 1%. Blackburn with Darwen saw employment in this sector increase by 40% over the 10 year period. In 1998 post and telecomm accounted for over 94% of employment, other computer related activity 3%, maintenance of machinery 2%, over time the proportion of employment for each of these sub sectors has changed such that by 2008 post and telecomms share of employment fell to 70% while that for other computer related activity has increased to 7%. Over the same period data processing has increased its share from 0% to 23% in 2008. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 57 3.8 Sports and Leisure The sports and leisure sector is a relatively large sector in terms of employment in Pennine Lancashire, employing a total of 6,000 employees in 2008. Blackburn with Darwen accounts for the lion’s share of employment in this sector employing 38% of the total. Hyndburn, Ribble Valley and Rossendale account for between 9% and 11% of jobs. Over the period Hyndburn, Pendle, Ribble valley and Rossendale have seen employment in this sector increase two and three fold. 3.9 Retail trade Like the sports and leisure sector, the retail trade employs over 20,000 persons within the Pennine Lancashire area, over the period between 1998 and 2008 Blackburn with Darwen has seen employment in this sector decrease by 16% and Burnley by 4%. Rossendale on the other hand has seen employment in its retail sector increase by a fifth and Hyndburn by 12%. By far the largest share of retail sector employment in the Pennine Lancashire districts is held by Blackburn with Darwen district which accounted for 27%, Hyndburn accounts for a fifth of all employment in this sector. The Ribble Valley has the smallest share with 9%. 3.10 Construction Within Pennine Lancashire construction has seen its share of jobs increase from 7,000 to just over 9000 jobs, an increase of 30.7%. Construction accounts for 4.9% of all jobs in Pennine Lancashire. Blackburn with Darwen and Pendle account for just under a half of all Pennine Lancashire construction employment with approximately 23% each. Over the 10 year period between 1998 and 2008 the construction sector grew by between 10% and 85%. In Pendle construction grew by 85%, in contrast, the Hyndburn construction sector grew by 10%. In Pennine Lancashire as a whole the construction sector grew by 31%. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 58 3.11 Tourism The following are the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003 codes for the tourism industry: Tourism-related includes the following sectors: 551 Hotels 552 Camping sites etc 553 Restaurants 554 Bars 633 Activities of travel agencies etc 925 Library, archives, museums etc 926 Sporting activities 927 Other recreational activities In 2008 Blackburn with Darwen accounted for 26.6% or a quarter of all tourism related employment in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region, Burnley and Ribble Valley have the second largest share with 17.5% each. Compared to 1998 levels Ribble Valley has seen the largest percentage increase in tourism related employment with 35% more jobs in existence in 2008. Hyndburn has also experience an increase of tourism related employment of 31.3%. Blackburn with Darwen has seen a modest increase of 2.5% over the same period. Rossendale has been the biggest loser in terms of tourism related employment and has experienced the largest decrease with -65.1% fewer jobs in tourism in 2008 compared to 1998, a reduction of 2800 jobs. Overall the Pennine Lancashire sub-region has seen a reduction in tourism related employment of approximately 6% over the period. Table 3.8 Tourism related Jobs in Pennine Lancashire Total tourism jobs 2008 Blackburn with Darwen 4,100 Pennine Lancashire 15,400 Greater Manchester 83,800 North West 247,500 Great Britain 2,181,100 % change in tourism jobs 1998-2008 2.5 -6.1 22.5 13.7 20.4 Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 – ONS, Crown copyright Table 3.9 Tourism related Jobs in Pennine Lancashire districts Total tourism As a % of all Tourism jobs (2008) jobs in Pennine Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen 4,100 26.6 Burnley 2,700 17.5 Hyndburn 2,100 13.6 Pendle 2,300 14.9 Ribble Valley 2,700 17.5 Rossendale 1,500 9.7 % change in tourism jobs 1998-2008 2.5 8.0 31.3 15.0 35.0 -65.1 Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 – ONS, Crown copyright Rossendale has the lowest share of tourism related jobs and employment in this district has fallen by two-thirds in this sector. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 59 3.12 The Knowledge Economy Over the years there has been an increasing realisation that businesses that are able to quickly harness changes in technology, better understand the markets they operate in and are able to exploit new market opportunities tend to be very successful. The term used to describe such businesses is the ‘Knowledge Economy’ this covers activities which rely on the creation, evaluation and trading of knowledge. This sector has been growing fast in recent years, the presence of such business is important as a means of generating wealth and improving competitiveness. The knowledge economy may be described as the part of the economy where organisations generate wealth by utilising a knowledge specialism in their workforce. This may include the knowledge to use a certain technology. "Economic success is increasingly based upon the effective utilisation of intangible assets such as knowledge, skills and innovative potential as the key resource for competitive advantage. The term 'knowledge economy' is used to describe this emerging economic structure". There is no single way of defining what the ‘knowledge economy’ is, rather a number of separate definitions, in terms of particular types of businesses and occupations associated with higher knowledge requirements and levels of skills exist. Two definitions are available both of which are given below. The first is the Eurostat definition which is a broad measure while the second is a much narrower definition. Both use 2003 SIC codes. Unless otherwise stated we have used the Eurostat definition of knowledge intensive services which includes the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003 codes: 61 Water transport; 62 Air transport; 64 Post and telecommunications; 65 to 67 Financial intermediation; 70 to 74 Real estate, renting and business activities; 80 Education; 85 Health and social work; 92 Recreational, cultural and sporting activities Table 3.10: Distribution of knowledge intensive service (KIS) units within Pennine Lancashire Number of KIS units Total number of business unit % of total units Blackburn with Darwen 1,925 4,946 38.9% Burnley 1,016 2,834 35.9% 876 2,682 32.6% Pendle 1,019 2,906 35.1% Ribble Valley 1,215 2,926 41.5% Rossendale 1,101 2,685 41.0% Pennine Lancashire 7,152 18,979 37.7% Hyndburn Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 – ONS, Crown copyright Note: Figures are rounded to 100 but percentages are calculated on unrounded figures. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 60 There exists a degree of variation in terms of the location of knowledge intensive businesses in Pennine Lancashire. Hyndburn has a third of its business units that are knowledge intensive industries, while Rossendale and the Ribble Valley have over 40%. Two districts Ribble Valley and Rossendale have a higher proportion of its business units that are knowledge intensive industries than the Pennine Lancashire average. 3.12.1 Employment within knowledge intensive (KI) industries In 2008, 28,354 people were employed in knowledge intensive industries in Blackburn with Darwen, approximately 45% of employees. This proportion is higher than the Pennine Lancashire (41%). Table 3.11 : Number of employees working in knowledge intensive industries Number employed in KI industries % employed in KI industries as a % of employment in all industries Blackburn with Darwen 28,354 45.3% Burnley 14,114 43.3% Hyndburn 11,195 39.0% Pendle 10,702 35.2% Ribble Valley 8,972 35.6% Rossendale 8,132 38.3% Pennine Lancashire 81,469 40.6% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 – ONS, Crown copyright Note: Figures are rounded to 100 but percentages are calculated on unrounded figures. However this is not a particularly good measure of people working within knowledge intensive jobs as these figures would include everyone working within that industry including manual or supporting jobs that may not require a high level of knowledge. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 61 3.12.2 Occupation of people working within knowledge intensive industries Probably one of the better ways of measuring how many people are employed in knowledge intensive jobs is to look at their standard occupational classification. Occupational classification information is obtained through the annual population survey (APS). Standard Occupational Classifications (2003) are: 1: managers and senior officials 2: professional occupations 3: associate professional and technical occupations 4: administrative and secretarial occupations 5: skilled trades occupations 6: personal service occupations 7: sales and customer service occupations 8: process, plant and machine operatives 9: elementary occupations The first three occupations, managers and senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional and technical occupations are classified as knowledge intensive occupations. 'The underlying rational for this definition is that these occupational groups include the sorts of jobs we most readily associate with the knowledge intensive industries. One drawback is that some categories include large numbers of people who would not typically be regarded as knowledge workers, for example, managers of small stores and corner shops.' 18 In 2007, over a third or 35.9% of Blackburn with Darwen’s workers (20,600 people) were working within the top three occupations, managers and senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical occupations. This proportion is lower than that for the region as a whole (41.2%) and England (44.6%). The Pennine Lancashire average was 39.3% All other Pennine Lancashire districts had a higher percentage of their workers within the top three occupations, Pendle and Ribble Valley having the highest (44.2% and 44.6% respectively) similar to the England average. Hyndburn had 36.4% of its workers employed in the top three occupations slightly higher than Blackburn with Darwen but lower than the regional and national average and lowest of all Pennine Lancashire districts along with Blackburn with Darwen. Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 62 3.12.3 People with higher level skills Higher level skills are considered to be NVQ Level 4 qualifications or equivalent (e.g. HND, Degree and Higher Degree level qualifications). In 2008, 17% of Blackburn with Darwen’s working age population was qualified to NVQ level 4. All of Blackburn with Darwen’s neighbouring authorities/districts have higher proportions of their population qualified to level 4, the highest being in the Ribble Valley with 40% followed by Rossendale with 26%. However, this also is not a very good measure of people working in knowledge intensive jobs, as these people may not all be working in jobs that require level 4 qualifications. For more information about qualification levels see the relevant part within the Employment and Skills section (page 18). Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS, ONS, Crown copyright Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 63 3.13 Business Structure The following section considers the size of business stock that underpins the Pennine Lancashire districts economy. 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Wholesale and retail trade 26.3% Real estate, renting and business activities Hotels and restaurants Blackburn with Darwen 4.1% Transport, storage and communication 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Wholesale and retail trade 30.0% 26.4% Real estate, renting and business activities 20.6% Construction 0.0% Wholesale and retail trade 9.3% Manufacturing Other community, social and personal service 7.9% activities Hotels and restaurants 26.1% 17.9% 11.1% Manufacturing Construction Health and social work 7.1% Burnley Transport, and communication 3.2% Hotels and restaurants Health and social work Transport, and communication 6.9% Manufacturing 6.4% 0.0% Real estate, renting and business activities 29.2% 21.2% Manufacturing Pennine Lancashire & Blackburn with Darwen Economic Assessment, February 2011 0.0% Construction Other community, social and personal service activities 7.0% Transport, and communication 4.3% 26.8% 21.1% 11.8% Manufacturing 7.8% 4.3% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Wholesale and retail trade 11.5% Health and social work 5.0% England and Wales 4.2% Real estate, renting and business activities 8.1% activities 5.5% Transport, storage and communication 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Pendle Transport, and communication 4.5% Wholesale and retail trade 8.3% Health and social work 6.1% North West Other community, social and personal service 5.8% 4.5% 6.7% Construction 5.8% Hyndburn 5.2% Hotels and restaurants Hotels and restaurants 8.3% activities 7.3% 7.3% 11.2% Other community, social and personal service 8.2% Hotels and restaurants 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 10.4% 10.2% Other community, social and personal service activities Transport, storage and communication 25.9% 20.0% Construction Manchester Metropolitan districts 21.7% 31.5% Wholesale and retail trade 10.0% Health and social work Wholesale and retail trade 10.7% activities 5.0% 22.1% Manufacturing 4.5% Real estate, renting and business activities 7.8% 5.7% Real estate, renting and business activities Construction Other community, social and personal service 6.8% 0.0% Manufacturing Hotels and restaurants 7.6% Health and social work 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Real estate, renting and business activities 11.2% Health and social work 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Other community, social and personal service activities 6.5% Transport, storage and communication 5.0% Wholesale and retail trade 7.2% Hotels and restaurants 28.7% Construction 7.6% Manufacturing 4.4% Real estate, renting and business activities 9.6% activities Pennine Lancashire 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 22.3% Other community, social and personal service 6.3% Transport, and communication 29.9% Construction 6.9% Health and social work 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Real estate, renting and business activities 7.6% Hotels and restaurants 5.0% Wholesale and retail trade 9.8% activities 6.3% 0.0% 30.0% 10.2% Manufacturing 7.3% 25.0% 23.2% Other community, social and personal service 7.5% Other community and personal service activities 20.0% 24.7% Construction 7.8% Health and social work 15.0% Real estate, renting and business activities 9.7% Construction 10.0% Wholesale and retail trade 22.9% Manufacturing 5.0% Health and social work 10.6% 7.2% 5.8% Hotels and restaurants 5.7% Transport, and communication 5.4% Ribble Valley Rossendale 64 3.14 District overview - Units In 2008 60% of Blackburn with Darwen’s and Pennine Lancashire business units were concentrated in three sectors, Wholesale and retail accounted for 26.3% of business units in Blackburn with Darwen and 24.7% in Pennine Lancashire, real estate, renting and business activities account for 23% in each of the two areas. The third largest sector in Blackburn with Darwen is manufacturing while in Pennine Lancashire it is construction. Wholesale and retail units have the greatest share of employment units in Burnley, Hyndburn and Pendle. A quarter of all business units in Burnley, Hyndburn and Pendle are in the wholesale and retail trade sector, while a fifth of all business units (exception of Hyndburn -18%) deal with real estate, renting and business activities. Construction and manufacturing compete for 3rd and 4th position in terms of employment units in Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle and Rossendale. Construction is the 3 rd largest sector in Burnley, Ribble valley and Rossendale. Manufacturing is the 3rd largest in Hyndburn and Pendle. The hotel and Restaurant sector is the 4 th largest sector in the Ribble Valley and the 5 th largest in Hyndburn, the hotel and restaurant sector accounts for 8% or 1 in 12 of all business units in Hyndburn, Pendle and the Ribble Valley. Hotel and restaurants sector share in Burnley is 7.6% and for Blackburn with Darwen it is 6.3%, its share of all other sectors or business units is the lowest in Rossendale with 5.7%. The transport and communication sector has the smallest percentage share of employment units in all the six Pennine Lancashire districts, Rossendale and Hyndburn both have 5% of their business units in this sector, while Pendle, Ribble Valley and Blackburn with Darwen all have approximately 4%. Burnley has 3% of business units in this sector. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 65 of 130 3.15 Third sector and social enterprise (Voluntary sector) The third or voluntary sector is another sector which is vitality important to local, regional and national economies. Under the previous administration the sector was known as the third sector, while under the current government the term used is the voluntary sector. Both terms are used to mean the same group of organisations - charities, social enterprises, community and voluntary organisations. A thriving voluntary sector is crucial to building stronger communities and delivering good quality services. Charities, voluntary and community groups and social enterprises need people with the right skills to be able to make a difference to the people and communities they serve. The extracts below are based on the Work chapter of the National Council for Voluntary Organisations (NCVO) UK Civil Society Almanac 2010 and covers key trends and characteristics of the voluntary sector workforce, employment and volunteering. The Labour Force Survey (LES) estimates that 668,000 people were employed in the UK voluntary sector in 2008. The sector employs two out of every hundred people in the UK workforce, accounting for 2.3% of all UK employees. In comparison the public sector employed just over seven million employees in 2008 and the private sector employed just under 21 million employees.1 Between 1999 and 2008 the voluntary sector workforce increased by 124,000 employees. In comparison, the public and private sectors’ workforces increased by 1.3 million and 1 million employees respectively. As a percentage, the voluntary sector has experienced a higher rate of increase (23%) than the private sector (7%) and the public sector (18%). The growth in the voluntary sector is linked to almost twenty years of public service delivery being contracted out by central and local government agencies to the sector (Kendall, 2003). More than two-thirds (68%) of the voluntary sector work-force are women. This compares with the public sector (65%) but contrasts with the private sector (39%). The voluntary sector workforce contains a higher proportion of disabled people than the public and private sectors. Nearly one in five people (19%) working in the voluntary sector has a disability compared to 14% of the public sector workforce and 12% of the private sector workforce. The ethnicity of over nine in ten of the voluntary sector workforce is white (93%). This is slightly higher than in the public and private sectors (each equating to 91%). Voluntary sector employees are concentrated in small workplaces with one-third of voluntary sector workers (32%) employed in workplaces with less than 10 employees. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 66 of 130 3.16 Business structure over time Fig 3.9 shows change in proportion of business units as a percentage of total units by broad sector in Blackburn with Darwen 1998 and 2008 In terms of growth, real estate, renting and business activities, public administration and defence, construction all increased, while manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade units decreased. Fig 3.9: Business units change over time (proportion of total) 1998 2008 Other community , social and personal serv ice activ ities Health and social w ork Education Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Real estate, renting and business activ ities Financial intermediation Transport, storage and communication Hotels and restaurants Wholesale and retail trade Construction Electricity , gas and w ater supply Manufacturing Agriculture, hunting and forestry 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Source: Nomis, Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 67 of 130 3.17 Business size Small businesses are important to the local economy. In 2009, there were 5,005 local units in Blackburn with Darwen. The employment size band with the highest proportion of local units in Blackburn with Darwen was the 0 - 4 band (62.2%). This is less than the proportion in the North West region (66.2%) and less than in England (68.6%). Data in the table has been aggregated to a size band of 10 or more, seventy-nine per cent of Blackburn with Darwen businesses employ fewer than 10 people, in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region the level is higher at 82.4%, This is higher than regional but not the national level. Table 3.12: Business size in Pennine Lancashire, 2008 Blackburn Pennine with Darwen Lancashire Total units 5,005 19,755 0-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250+ 78.5 9.8 7.1 2.5 1.6 0.5 82.4 8.4 5.9 1.9 1.1 0.3 Greater Manchester 94,600 North West 263,775 England 2,353,075 80.5 8.8 6.5 2.2 1.3 0.6 81.6 8.7 6.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 83.2 8.1 5.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 Source IDBR, 2009 In Blackburn with Darwen 9.8% of businesses employ 10-19 and 7.1% 20-49 employees, higher than Pennine Lancashire, regional and national levels. Ribble valley has the largest percentage of businesses employing 0-9 persons at 88.8% this is higher than Blackburn with Darwen, Pennine Lancashire and regional and national levels. Ribble valley which is predominantly rural stands out as having an above average share of micro-businesses. Table 3.13: Business size in Pennine Lancashire Districts, 2008 Blackburn Burnley Pendle Hyndburn with Darwen Total units 0-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250+ 5,005 78.5 9.8 7.1 2.5 1.6 0.5 2,875 80.0 9.0 7.5 1.9 1.2 0.4 3,030 82.8 8.1 5.8 2.0 0.8 0.5 2,710 80.4 9.0 6.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 Ribble valley Rossendale 3,390 88.8 5.8 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 2,745 85.2 7.8 4.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 Source IDBR, 2009 UK Business activity, size and location ONS Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 68 of 130 3.18 Small business by number of employees The majority of employers in the Pennine Lancashire sub region are small businesses; 84.1% employ less than 10 people, only 3.7% employ 50+, more than the proportion employed as the national average (3.5%) but lower than that for the North West (3.8%). Table 3.14: Sizeband 1-4 5-10 11-24 25-49 50-99 100-299 300+ 1-10 11-49 50+ Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn 65.8% 15.3% 9.4% 5.1% 2.4% 1.7% 0.3% 81.1% 14.5% 4.4% 66.1% 67.5% 16.1% 15.4% 8.8% 9.1% 5.2% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 82.2% 82.9% 14.0% 13.0% 3.8% 4.1% Pendle Ribble Valley 70.2% 77.6% 14.1% 11.6% 7.8% 6.2% 3.7% 2.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 84.3% 89.2% 11.5% 8.4% 4.2% 2.4% Rossendale 74.8% 12.0% 6.8% 3.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 86.8% 10.3% 2.9% Pennine Lancashire 69.9% 14.2% 8.1% 4.1% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 84.1% 12.2% 3.7% Great Britain 71.1% 13.9% 7.8% 3.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 85.0% 11.5% 3.5% North West 69.1% 14.6% 8.3% 4.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 83.7% 12.5% 3.8% Source: ONS Crown copyright Nearly two thirds of employers in Blackburn with Darwen employ 1-4 persons, the lowest of all Pennine Lancashire Districts. Ribble valley has the highest percentage of micro industries, employers employing 1-4 persons with 77.6%, closely followed by Rossendale. Blackburn with Darwen has highest percentage of employers employing 11-49 (14.5%) and 50+ (4.4%) people, higher than the regional and national average. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 69 of 130 3.19 Small business by number of employees 2008 Table 3.15: Size-band Total 1-4 510 1124 2549 5099 100499 500999 Agriculture and fishing Energy and water 20 4 16 2 3 0 1 2 Manufacturing Construction 482 388 219 327 88 28 Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance Public administration, education & health Other services 1,616 1,115 205 68 20 47 9 27 2 32 2 1 280 137 56 15 12 1 139 29 15 6 11 4 1 1,265 990 136 74 29 22 13 1 603 191 134 122 94 35 23 363 257 58 24 12 8 3,256 756 463 253 120 Total 4,946 Source: ONS Crown copyright 10001999 20004999 2 1 1 3 0 1 0 89 6 2 1 >5000 As already mentioned the majority of employers in Blackburn with Darwen are small businesses, 81% employ less than 10 people, whilst only 4% employ more than 50 people, this is higher than both the regional and national average. In all sectors in Blackburn with Darwen the majority of business enterprises employ less than 10 people. 95% of Agriculture and fishing enterprises and 91.5% of construction enterprises employ less than 1-10 people. In all other sectors around 50-90% of businesses in each sector employ 1-10 people. The only sectors with any significant proportion of enterprises employing 50+ people are Public administration, education and health and Manufacturing. Table 3.16: Percentage of Blackburn with Darwen Enterprises by size band 2008 Size-band 1-4 5-10 11-24 25-49 5099 100499 500999 Agriculture and fishing 4.0% 0.8% 0.3% Energy and water Manufacturing 50.0% 45.4% 0.0% 18.3% Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communications Banking, finance and insurance Public administration, education & health Other services Total 84.3% 69.0% 10001999 20004999 50.0% 14.1% 9.8% 5.6% 6.6% 0.2% 7.2% 17.3% 5.2% 8.5% 2.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 67.8% 14.1% 7.3% 2.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.5% 78.3% 10.8% 5.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 31.7% 22.2% 20.2% 15.6% 5.8% 3.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 70.8% 65.8% 16.0% 15.3% 6.6% 9.4% 3.3% 5.1% 2.2% 2.4% 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% >5000 Source: ONS Crown copyright Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 70 of 130 3.20 Business births and deaths The figures for business births and deaths are taken from the Inter-Departmental Business register An active enterprise is one that had turnover and/or employment at any time during the given year. In 2008 there were over 2.3 million active enterprises in Great Britain, of which just over 235,300 were in the North West. The broader 14-authority Lancashire area accounted for 22.3% of the regional total with 52,550 active enterprises whist the Pennine Lancashire area contained 18,090 active enterprises. Within the Pennine Lancashire area, only Blackburn with Darwen contained more than 4,000 active enterprises. This was 8.6% of the Lancashire 14 Authority total but 25% of the Pennine Lancashire total. Hyndburn district had the smallest total in the Lancashire 14 authority total with just 2,520 active enterprises. Figures for the so-called "Births and Deaths" of enterprises are calculated by looking at the number of active enterprises from year to year. At the national level, births exceeded deaths by a total of over 49,800. Within the broader Lancashire area, the difference revealed a net positive total of 500. Only in Pendle the change in active enterprise numbers was negative. Table 3.17: Active Enterprises and Births and Deaths, 2008 % Lancashire % Pennine Active (14 Authorities) Lancashire enterprises[1] 8.6% 24.9% Blackburn with 4,505 Darwen 5.0% 14.4% Burnley 2,605 Births[2] Deaths[2] 545 490 300 265 Hyndburn 2,520 4.8% 13.9% 270 235 Pendle 2,800 5.3% 15.5% 265 270 Ribble Valley 2,985 5.7% 16.5% 310 290 Rossendale 2,675 5.1% 14.8% 285 260 Pennine Lancashire 18,090 34.4% 100.0% Lancashire (14 authorities) 52,550 100.0% - 5,845 5,345 North West 235,315 - - 27,650 23,150 2,325,770 - - 264,525 214,700 Great Britain Source: Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 71 of 130 Table 3.18: Births and deaths of Enterprises by Employment Size Band Births[2] Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Deaths[2] Total 0-4 5-9 10-19 20+ Total 0-4 5-9 10-19 20+ N % % % % N % % % % 545 89.0 7.3 2.8 0.9 490 86.7 7.1 4.1 2 1.7 265 86.8 9.4 3.8 - 300 88.3 6.7 3.3 Hyndburn 270 92.6 5.6 1.9 - 235 91.5 6.4 2.1 - Pendle 265 310 5.7 6.5 8.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 270 Ribble Valley Rossendale 90.6 90.3 87.7 87 87.9 84.6 11.1 5.2 9.6 1.9 5.2 3.9 1.7 1.9 90.3 91 6.4 5.9 2.3 2.2 1.0 1.0 87.5 89.1 8.1 7.2 3.1 2.7 1.4 1.1 North West Great Britain 285 27,650 264,525 290 260 23,150 214,700 Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival Main points Blackburn with Darwen had the highest (of any Pennine Lancashire district) enterprise start ups and enterprise deaths in 2008. The majority of business birth and deaths in Blackburn with Darwen belonged to employment size band 0-4. Start-ups (size 0-4 units) in Hyndburn, Pendle and Ribble Valley were greater than or equal to the regional and national average. Highest start up rate was for Hyndburn (92.6%) and lowest for Burnley (88.3%) All districts exception of Blackburn with Darwen had greater enterprise birth rates in the 20+ group than the regional and national average. Highest enterprise deaths rate for size 0-4 units was highest for Hyndburn (91.5%) and lowest for Rossendale (84.6%) Enterprise deaths (0-4 units) in Hyndburn (91.5%) and Ribble Valley (87.9%) was higher than the regional average Pendle had higher enterprise deaths (in 5-9 enterprise band) than the regional and national average. Deaths in 20+ enterprise units was higher for Pennine Lancashire districts than regionally and nationally Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 72 of 130 3.21 Births and deaths as a percentage of Enterprise Stock The following table shows the number of business births and deaths as a percentage of active enterprise stock. Fig 3.10: enterprise births and deaths as a percentage of enterprise stock 2008 Enterprise births and deaths as a percentage of the enterprise stock 2008 15.0 Births % of stock Deaths % of stock Net change NW & England NW England NW & England =11.8 10.0 12.1 11.5 10.7 Births 9.5 10.7 0.7 0.9 -9.7 -9.7 5.0 0.0 Deaths 10.4 -5.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 -0.2 -10.9 -10.2 -9.3 -9.6 -10.0 England -9.5 North West -9.8 -15.0 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale The proportion of business start ups in as a percentage of the active stock enterprises was highest for Blackburn with Darwen Blackburn with Darwen proportion of business starts as a % of stock was higher than the regional and national average The proportion was lowest in Pendle (9.5%). The proportion of business deaths in as a percentage of the active stock enterprises was highest for Blackburn with Darwen This proportion was higher than the regional and national average Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 73 of 130 3.22 National Indicators and Entrepreneurialism In 2007, the local Government White Paper, Strong and prosperous Communities introduced a set of streamlined indicators -198 in total- that reflect national priority outcomes for local authorities. In terms of business growth and enterprise, there are two key indicators; the business registration rate and the proportion of small businesses showing employment growth. 3.22.1 NI 171 Business registration and closure rates per 10,000 resident adult population The business registration rate is calculated by taking the number of Vat and/or PAYE businesses that have registered for the first time and dividing this by the local population Table 3.19: Proportion of business registrations and closures per 10,000 resident adult population 2008 Business registration rate Business closure rate (calculated) Net change Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 51.1 45.8 5.3 43.1 37.9 5.2 Hyndburn 42.1 36.7 5.4 Pendle 37.0 37.5 -0.5 Ribble Valley 66.1 60.4 5.7 Rossendale 53.1 48.1 5.0 North West 49.6 41.5 8.1 England 57.2 46.2 11.0 Source: NI 171 from the Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR); Business Closure Rates were calculated using Deaths of Enterprises (2008) from Business Demography and Resident Population Estimates (2008) from Office for National Statistics The business registration rate for three Pennine Lancashire districts Blackburn with Darwen’s (51.1%), Ribble Valley (66.1%) and Rossendale (53.1%) was higher than the regional average, Ribble valley was the only district with a registration rate that was higher than the national average. Business registration rate was lowest in Pendle (37%), Burnley and Hyndburn also had registration’s that was far lower than the regional and national average. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 74 of 130 Figure 3.11 Business registration and closure rates for Pennine Lancashire districts Proportion of Business registrations and closures per 10,000 resident adult population Business closure rate (calculated) 70.0 Business registration rate 66.1 Net change 60.0 60.4 51.1 57.2 53.1 49.6 50.0 43.1 40.0 45.8 48.1 42.1 37.0 37.9 36.7 46.2 41.5 37.5 30.0 20.0 10.0 5.3 5.2 5.4 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn 8.1 5.7 5.0 Ribble Valley Rossendale 11.0 0.0 Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Pendle North West England Page 75 of 130 3.22.2 NI 172 Small businesses showing employment growth In order to assess the strength of the small business sector, NI 172 identifies the proportion of small VAT and /or PAYE registered businesses (<50 employees) showing year-on-year employment growth. Table 3.20: Percentage of small businesses in the area showing employment growth 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Blackburn with Darwen per cent 0.11 per cent 0.12 per cent 0.17 per cent 0.15 per cent 0.15 Burnley 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.15 Hyndburn 0.11 0.12 0.17 0.17 0.14 Pendle 0.10 0.11 0.16 0.15 0.15 Ribble Valley 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.14 Rossendale 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.14 North West England 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.14 Source: Business Innovation & Skills (BIS) Table 3.20 suggests that all Pennine Lancashire districts performed similar or even better than the regional and national level in 2007/08. Performance between 2003/04 and 2007/08 within and between districts has varied. Blackburn with Darwen has regularly performed better or equal to regional and national levels Ribble valley and Rossendale have regularly performed worse than the regional and national average Pendle in the earlier years performed worse but since 2005/06 performance has been in line with the region and nationally. Hyndburn initially performed worse than the regional and national average but in 2005/06 and 2006/07 performed better than the regionally and nationally but since 2007/8 performance has been lower than the regional average. Burnley’s performance like Pendle’s in the early years was poor, this lasted for a year more than Pendle’s and in 2007/08 its performance was in line with the regional and national average. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 76 of 130 3.23 Business survival rates Business survival within the North West has been affected by the credit crunch and recession. Figure x shows that real estate and construction, retail and wholesale has been significantly affected with manufacturing and technology also failing. The chart predicts that business survival rates will improve from Q1 2010 with normality with rates prior to credit crunch returning in Q3 2012. Table 3.21: (SIC2003) BROAD INDUSTRY GROUP by BIRTHS AND THEIR SURVIVAL for 2003 - 2007 Production Construction Motor trades Wholesale Retail Hotels & catering Transport Post & telecommunications Finance Property & business services (Excl 7415) Education Health Other services 1 Year per cent 2 Year per cent 3 Year per cent 4 Year per cent 5 Year per cent 15,750 91.9 78.0 64.8 55.3 47.8 31,225 7,360 92.9 92.0 79.2 77.4 66.0 63.6 57.4 54.6 50.3 47.5 11,000 26,405 93.6 91.8 77.1 77.5 58.2 62.5 49.1 52.2 41.4 44.4 27,990 7,840 90.6 92.0 71.6 77.5 54.0 62.6 43.0 53.0 34.2 44.5 3,950 2,820 93.2 89.0 76.6 76.2 60.1 63.1 49.2 54.3 41.5 46.8 98,785 93.1 78.9 64.7 55.5 48.0 4,135 6,250 96.0 95.4 87.2 86.3 75.3 77.4 67.8 70.2 60.3 63.0 23,490 93.1 78.6 65.6 56.7 49.2 Births Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 77 of 130 A business that is active at any time in the year following the year of its birth is defined as having survived 1 year, and so on for other years. Table 2 lists active enterprise survival rates for 2003, 2005 and 2007 by local authority district. Table 3.22 Births and survival rates 1 Year per cent 92.6 2 Year per cent 78.0 3 Year per cent 63.6 4 Year per cent 54.3 5 Year UNITED KINGDOM Births (2003) 266,995 GREAT BRITAIN ENGLAND 262,580 236,220 92.6 92.6 78.0 77.9 63.5 63.5 54.1 54.1 46.5 46.4 46.6 Source Office for National Statistics: Business Demography: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survival Table 3.22 and the district tables below emphasise the fact that even after only five years, more than half of active enterprises no longer exist. At the Great Britain level, only 46.5% of those born in 2003 were still active five years later. For the broader 14-authority Lancashire (not shown) area the rate was slightly higher at 47.9% and 49.1% for the 12-district Lancashire County Council area. Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Year Births 2003 580 2004 595 2005 605 2006 530 2007 640 Hyndburn Yr 1 94.8 94.1 93.4 98.1 93.0 Yr 2 75.9 74.8 78.5 78.3 Yr 3 61.2 63.9 62.8 Yr 4 50.9 51.3 Yr 5 44.0 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pendle Births 375 375 390 345 280 Yr 1 92.0 94.7 94.9 97.1 98.2 Yr 2 72.0 78.7 79.5 78.3 Yr 3 58.7 66.7 61.5 Yr 4 48.0 52.0 Yr 5 44.0 Year Births 2003 320 2004 310 2005 330 2006 285 2007 325 Ribble Valley Yr 1 96.9 91.9 95.9 96.5 92.3 Yr 2 79.7 75.8 80.3 84.2 Yr 3 65.6 64.5 65.2 Yr 4 56.3 53.2 Yr 5 48.4 Year Births 2003 370 2004 365 2005 345 2006 275 2007 330 Rossendale Yr 1 93.2 91.8 95.7 96.4 92.4 Yr 2 74.3 76.7 82.6 78.2 Yr 3 60.8 65.8 66.7 Yr 4 54.1 52.1 Yr 5 48.6 Yr 1 93.8 95.8 97.1 95.2 97.1 Yr 2 84.0 81.7 79.7 82.5 Yr 3 72.8 73.2 66.7 Yr 4 63.0 63.4 Yr 5 55.6 Yr 1 93.5 92.8 92.4 96.9 95.2 Yr 2 79.0 81.2 81.8 82.8 Yr 3 69.4 65.2 69.7 Yr 4 59.7 56.5 Yr 5 50.0 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Births 405 355 345 315 340 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Births 310 345 330 320 315 The district tables above show the survival of newly born businesses in Blackburn with Darwen, survival rates after year one is high with nine out of ten newly born businesses surviving, three quarters of all new business births survived till year two, six out of ten till year three and only a half of all newly born businesses survived till year four. The trend is such that by year 5 at the local authority level Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley both recorded rates of just 44.0. In contrast, the rate for Ribble Valley of 55.6% was well in excess of the national average, whilst six other Lancashire authorities had five-year rates of 50% or more. The nature of the local economy has an impact on survival rates. Results for enterprises by various industrial sectors reveal the large proportion classified to the agriculture forestry and fishing sector in Ribble Valley. This is a sector that contains many well established and stable businesses. The production (manufacturing) sector is well represented in both Burnley and Blackburn with Darwen and there have been significant reductions in manufacturing employment over a number of years. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 78 of 130 Chapter Four: Communities and connections The following few pages provides a geographical context for Blackburn with Darwen, the following paragraphs are taken for Blackburn with Darwen’s ‘Story of Place’ (from the 2008 Blackburn with Darwen Sustainable Community Strategy) Blackburn with Darwen, surrounded by some of the most beautiful countryside in Britain, is a key geographical and cultural gateway to Pennine Lancashire. It is located between the high land on the Metropolitan boroughs of Bolton and Bury in the South and Mellor ridge to the north. The West Pennine Moors form a natural barrier to Chorley and to the east a barrier to Rossendale. The borough covers an area of 13,700 hectares. The borough is characterised by relatively compact urban areas set within countryside. Within the main urban areas both Town Centres are surrounded by large areas of high density terraced housing, parts of which are in poor condition. Both towns have significant areas of “suburban” development, comprising a mix of larger older properties and more recent development, comprising a mix of larger older properties and more recent development. The borough has significant rural fringes containing a number of villages. The landscape in the rural area has been shaped by farming – sheep on the uplands and dairy cattle on the low-lying areas – and small-scale mining and quarrying. Residents in rural areas, however, are more likely to seek work in nearby towns and cities. 4.1 Land use In response to short-term demands for land use information at the local and neighbourhood level, DCLG developed the "Generalised Land Use Database (GLUD) for England". Using a simplified nine category classification this database shows the amount and proportion of land in each category. Data on the different land types is available is available for 2005. The principal land use in the Lancashire NUTS-2 area in 2005 was "greenspace" (Tables 4.1 and 4.2). Covering 266,866 hectares this category accounted for over 82% of the sub-region's total land use (England=88%) in a wide range that extended from a share as high as 95% in the rural Ribble Valley to 78% in Hyndburn. Other than this clear urban/rural divide, the land use structure of most districts in Lancashire has close similarities. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 79 of 130 Table 4.1 Generalised Land Use Statistics, 2005 (hectares) Blackburn with Darwen Pennine Lancashire North West England Domestic buildings 368.4 1,562.10 20,131.30 150,770.40 Gardens 275.8 1,024.70 12,016.80 86,894.90 Non-domestic buildings 649.9 3,093.30 40,055.50 294,958.80 Road 48.2 159.2 2,144.40 14,343.60 Rail 31.6 106.1 2,504.60 17,935.00 Path 894.8 3,838.20 61,933.40 564,514.00 10,704.80 108,022.30 1,231,006.50 11,574,162.50 Water 345.9 1,741.20 91,907.80 343,619.90 Other 356.5 1,496.60 23,320.90 185,020.50 Total 13,675.90 121,044.50 1,485,030.70 13,232,372.20 Blackburn with Darwen East Lancashire North West England Domestic buildings 2.7 1.3 1.4 1.1 Gardens 2 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.8 2.6 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rail 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Path 6.5 3.2 4.2 4.3 Greenspace Water 78.3 89.2 82.9 87.5 2.5 1.4 6.2 2.6 Other 2.6 1.2 1.6 1.4 Total 100 100 100 100 Greenspace Non-domestic buildings Road Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 80 of 130 Table 4.2 Generalised Land Use Statistics, 2005 (hectares) Domestic buildings Gardens Nondomestic buildings Road Rail Path Green space Water Other Total Blackburn with Darwen 368.4 275.8 649.9 48.2 31.6 894.8 10,704.80 345.9 356.5 13,675.90 Burnley 255.4 164.9 492.4 30.3 21.5 556.8 9,042.60 172.4 206.5 10,942.70 Hyndburn 238.7 143.2 438.5 25 12.7 467.1 5,649.40 116.9 189.7 7,281.50 Pendle 253.6 164.8 511.5 23.3 7.5 623.7 15,111.70 224.9 243.1 17,163.50 Ribble Valley 247.7 161 599.9 13.7 27.4 771.4 55,636.90 715.5 298 58,472.20 Rossendale 198.4 114.9 401.1 18.7 5.3 525 11,876.90 165.6 202.8 13,508.70 Pennine Lancashire 1,562.10 1,024.70 3,093.30 159.2 106.1 3,838.20 108,022.30 1,741.20 1,496.60 121,044.50 Source ONS: Land Use Statistics Generalised Land Use Statistics, 2005 (%) Domestic buildings Gardens Nondomestic buildings Road Rail Path Green space Water Other Total Blackburn with Darwen 2.7 2 4.8 0.4 0.2 6.5 78.3 2.5 2.6 100 Burnley 2.3 1.5 4.5 0.3 0.2 5.1 82.6 1.6 1.9 100 Hyndburn 3.3 2 6 0.3 0.2 6.4 77.6 1.6 2.6 100 Pendle 1.5 1 3 0.1 0 3.6 88.1 1.3 1.4 100 Ribble Valley 0.4 0.3 1 0 0.1 1.3 95.2 1.2 0.5 100 Rossendale 1.5 0.9 3 0.1 0 3.9 87.9 1.2 1.5 100 Pennine Lancashire 1.3 0.9 2.6 0.1 0.1 3.2 89.2 1.4 1.2 100 Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 81 of 130 4.2 Commercial property The rateable value of property is the value at which a property might be expected to be let for one year. It is based on a range of factors including use, location and age, but a major determinant of rental value is floor space. The data set from the Office national statistics provides information of five different types of commercial and industrial premises (known as hereditaments) in England and Wales. These are broadly known as bulk classes and include the following Retail premises Offices Factories Warehouses and Other bulk premises Those that do not fall into one of the five bulk classes are collectively known as ‘non-bulks’. Looking at the value of commercial property in Blackburn with Darwen compared to other Pennine Lancashire areas, shows The total amount of commercial floor space (bulk classes) in Blackburn with Darwen was 2,371 metres squared (thousands) in 2008. This floor space was for a total of 4,689 units with a rateable value of £80,681k. The Pennine Lancashire figure has been arrived at by summing the data for Pennine Lancashire districts. Table 4.3: Units, floor space and rateable value All Bulk Classes; (2005 Revaluation) Units Floor-space Rateable Value Count Pounds Sterling (thousands) 80681 49741 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 4689 2819 Square metres (m2)(thousands) 2371 1512 Fylde Hyndburn 2085 2818 639 1338 28184 43061 Pendle Ribble Valley 2936 1475 1420 517 33743 15834 Rossendale Blackpool 2120 4544 988 1354 25848 62109 Pennine Lancashire North West England 16857 8146 248908 187748 1346547 86050 561777 4276619 37026183 Source: Communities and local government via Neighbourhood statistics (ONSCrown copyright) Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 82 of 130 Table 4.4: Rateable Value Statistics per metre squared for all ‘bulk classes’, 2008 (2005 Revaluation) All Bulk Retail Offices Commercial 'Other' Classes; Premises Offices Offices Blackburn with 34 90 58 62 44 Darwen Burnley 33 82 54 57 46 Factories Warehouses Other Bulk Premises 25 25 25 19 23 17 29 25 24 24 27 21 31 40 29 32 Ribble Valley Rossendale 32 24 31 26 72 57 66 71 59 46 49 44 63 49 54 47 53 40 42 38 21 18 21 16 22 18 North West England 50 66 114 130 82 121 87 128 60 84 24 29 Hyndburn Pendle Source: Communities and local government via Neighbourhood statistics (ONS-Crown copyright) Looking at the value of commercial property in Pennine Lancashire districts, all districts have lower values for all bulk classes than the regional and national average. Within Pennine Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen has the highest value for all bulk classes, £34 m 2 and Pendle the lowest with £24 m2. The rateable value for ‘Office’ space is highest in Hyndburn, while rateable value of warehousing is highest in Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley and Hyndburn. 4.3 Commercial property – empty units The following considers vacancy rates for commercial and industrial properties using the latest results from statistics released by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The statistics show estimated vacancy rates for commercial and industrial properties that are derived from the amount of relief given on business rates for empty properties in each local authority. Vacancy information is reported to the DCLG by the annual National Non Domestic Rates 3 (NNDR3) return. The returns are used to estimate the value of empty property as a proportion of the total value of property. The data are used as an indicator for local authorities to measure levels of business activity in their area, and also monitor the potential for new development. Since these are estimated vacancy rates they should be viewed with caution as they may not reflect actual vacancy rates. Data on the number of empty properties is also available for Pennine Lancashire districts, in 2008 11% of Properties were vacant in Blackburn with Darwen compared to 3% in Ribble Valley. Hyndburn and Rossendale have the highest percentage of empty properties with between 15-17%. Table 4.5: Total and percent empty units (2008) (2005 Revaluation) Blackburn with Darwen Burnley All Bulk Classes; 4689 % empty 11% 2819 10% Hyndburn Pendle 2818 2936 17% 7% Ribble Valley Rossendale 1475 2120 3% 15% Source: Communities and local government via Neighbourhood statistics (ONS-Crown copyright) Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 83 of 130 4.4 Empty units trends Within Pennine Lancashire vacancy rates at the district level vary between and with each other, the trend reveals that Rossendale has a consistently high vacancy rates and recorded the joint 10th highest rate in the country, as mentioned above it is now Hyndburn that has the highest vacancy rate in the County, up four percentage points in one year. Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley also recorded double-figure vacancy rates both increasing/decreasing by 2% points on the previous year. Ribble Valley, with a vacancy rate of 3% recorded the joint thirteenth lowest rate in the Country. In general terms, the Lancashire district rates reveal low levels in affluent areas (Ribble Valley) and high rates in three neighbouring East Lancashire districts that are not amongst the most economically affluent parts of the County. A high level of old manufacturing units perhaps unsuitable for modern needs may be a contributing factor to the high levels in the East Lancashire districts. Table 4.6: Vacancy Rates in Lancashire Districts, 1998/99 to 2004/05 (percentage) 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Blackburn with Darwen 6 6 7 8 9 9 Burnley 9 8 9 10 10 12 Hyndburn 7 10 6 9 12 13 Pendle 10 6 6 7 7 7 Ribble Valley 2 2 2 2 2 2 Rossendale 10 9 10 11 12 14 2004/05 11 10 17 7 3 15 North West 7 8 7 10 10 10 10 England 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 Source: Department for Communities and Local Government, Office for National Statistics Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 84 of 130 4.5 Expenditure at retail centres in the North West Every year the private research firm CACI produces a rank of retail areas in Great Britain by their financial importance. For 2010, London's West End was in pole position with an estimated expenditure figure of £3,170 million. Manchester was ranked in fourth place (£2,320m) with Liverpool fifth (£1,960m), the Trafford Centre was in 18th position (£990m). The latest results give values of £530m, for Preston, £370m for Blackpool, and £330m for Lancaster. Across Great Britain as a whole, Preston was ranked in 47th position and was the fourth largest shopping area by value in the North West. The regional competitive pressure on medium-sized shopping centres in Lancashire is intense. Developments such as Liverpool One and the Trafford Centre provide some very stiff competition. The Middlebrook retail park is just outside the county, and has grown to become a well established shopping and leisure destination (2010 expenditure figure of £140m). The graphic below shows shopping destinations within the North West and estimated expenditure figure for each location shown. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 85 of 130 4.6 Travel to work - Where Blackburn with Darwen's residents work and where Blackburn with Darwen's workers live The data used here is from the 2001 Census which gives details about where people reside and where they work. This information enables an assessment of the composition of the workforce in terms of local residents and people travelling into the area to work. The lowest level of geography that the data is available for is ward level. For this analysis, district level data is used for commuting patterns. ‘People in employment’ include full time students in employment, people working full time, part time and self employed people. The census collects data on people’s main job, if they have more than one source of employment this is not picked up by the census. The following data provides information on those who live and work in Blackburn with Darwen borough, those who live in the borough and work elsewhere and on people who travel into the borough to work. 4.6.1 Where do residents of the borough work? Of all the people in the borough who work, the greatest flow of employed residents is within the borough itself, as 37,642 people live and work within Blackburn with Darwen. 70.8% of all those in employment. Residents of the borough travel to work at a wide range of locations. After the people who work in the borough, the largest number travel to Hyndburn 3,322 (6.2% of those employed who live in the borough), followed by Ribble Valley 1,664 (3.1%), Preston 1,569 (2.9%) and Bolton 1,467 (2.7%). Map 1 illustrates the flows of residents travelling to work outside of the borough. Numbers are printed by each local authority, while flows of 50 or more are plotted on the map. (Mapped data does not show data for Ireland, Scotland for those who work off shore or outside the UK). 4.6.2 Where do people travel from, to work in Blackburn with Darwen? Blackburn with Darwen borough also provides employment for people who live outside the borough. Again, Hyndburn has the largest flow into the borough, with 6,653 people travelling into Blackburn with Darwen to work. 3,334 people travel in from Ribble Valley, 1,334 from Chorley, 1,288 from Bolton and 1,245 from Burnley. Map 2 illustrates the flows of people who travel into Blackburn with Darwen to work. Numbers are printed by each local authority, while flows of 50 or more are plotted on the map. 4.6.3 Flows in and out of the borough 37,642 people live and work within the borough. 20,993 people travel into the borough to work and 15,673 travel out of the borough, this is a net flow of 5,320. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 86 of 130 Map One Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 87 of 130 Map Two Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 88 of 130 Table 4.7: Journey to Work, 2001 Employed Resident residents and working in area Blackburn with 53,580 37,940 Darwen Burnley 38,100 25,140 Hyndburn 34,770 19,350 Pendle 37,040 23,690 Ribble 26,410 14,090 Valley Rossendale 29,880 15,860 Pennine 219,780 136,070 Lancashire % resident and working in area Resident elsewhere and working in area (commuters to area) Resident in area and working elsewhere (commuters from area) Net movements Total working in area 70.8 21,010 15,640 5,370 58,950 66.0 55.7 64.0 13,110 12,110 8,920 12,960 15,420 13,350 150 -3,310 -4,430 38,250 31,460 32,610 53.4 10,000 12,320 -2,320 24,090 53.1 7,060 14,020 -6,960 22,920 61.9 72,210 83,710 -11,490 208,290 -27,000 477,930 -21,370 596,220 Lancashire 504,930 406,570 80.5 71,360 98,360 County Lancashire 617,590 — — — — NUTS-2 Source ONS 2001 Census of Population, Workplace and Transport to Work Statistics. The majority of Pennine Lancashire's employed residents continue to both live and work in the same area (62%). In Blackburn with Darwen this share rises to nearly 71% suggesting a fairly self-contained local labour market, the proportion falls to just 53% in the Ribble Valley and Rossendale. Many residents in the Ribble Valley may travel to Preston for work while Rossendale residents may commute to Manchester. Generally speaking the urban areas of Blackburn with Darwen (71%), Burnley (66%) and Pendle (64%) tend to be more "self-contained" in terms of employed residents' working trips than districts elsewhere in the sub-region. More recent data from the Annual Population Survey (Jan-Dec 2008) shows that in 2008 a large majority, 69.9% of Blackburn with Darwen residents lived and worked in the borough, not significantly different from 2001 figure. Bolton is second as a place of work for Blackburn with Darwen residents, 5.2% worked there in 2008 compared to 3.1% in 2001. Hyndburn and Burnley as places of work for Blackburn with Darwen residents show significant reduction on 2001 levels. Table 4.7a: Place of work for Blackburn with Darwen residents: Change over time 2001 flow 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Blackburn with Darwen Bolton Preston Hyndburn Manchester Burnley Ribble Valley Bury Rossendale Aberdeenshire 68.8% 3.1% 3.1% 7.1% 1.8% 3.6% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 2008 flow 69.9% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% Is change significant at 5% level? No Yes No Yes No Yes No No No No Source: Local labour Force survey 2001, Annual population Survey 2008 via ONS Toolkit Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 89 of 130 4.7 Distances travelled to work Details of distance travelled to work in Lancashire and its constituent areas are shown in Table 4.8 below. In general, work trips across Lancashire are somewhat shorter than those in England and Wales as a whole. Out of the total "workplace population" in the Lancashire NUTS-2 area of 596,200, 48.5% travel less than 5km between their usual place of residence and their place of work, compared with a smaller proportion of 40.2% in England and Wales. Conversely, whilst nationally 12.7% travel more than 20km, only 9% do so in Lancashire. Just 1.3% (though still representing 8,000 people) in Lancashire and 2.7% in England and Wales travel more than 60km to get to work though in many areas, notably in the south east of England, over 5% of workers travelled more than this distance. Table 4.8: Distance Travelled to Work in Lancashire, 2001 All people less than 2 km 2 to 5 km People aged 16-74 and in employment People who travel a distance to work of: 5 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 60 km km km km km 58,944 25.6% 27.1% 17.4% 12.4% 3.4% 1.9% 38,254 31,465 32,601 29.4% 27.9% 31.9% 28.4% 23.0% 22.2% 16.1% 18.5% 17.2% 10.5% 11.4% 9.0% 2.3% 3.6% 3.0% 24,099 23.0% 10.9% 19.1% 19.1% 22,918 26.2% 21.0% 16.3% Pennine Lancashire 208,281 27.4% 23.4% England and Wales 23,529,051 20.1% 20.1% Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale more than 60 km Work mainly at or from home 1.1% 1.0% 10.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 10.1% 11.6% 12.8% 4.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.9% 18.2% 12.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% 16.8% 17.4% 12.2% 3.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 12.4% 18.3% 15.3% 5.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 13.6% Source ONS: 2001 Census of Population Burnley are notable for the high proportion of work trips (58%) of less than 5km, presumably reflecting in part the fairly compact physical nature of the towns themselves and the adjacent areas from where a large proportion of the commuters derive. Nearly all of the Pennine Lancashire districts have well-above average proportions of people travelling less than 5km. The exception, being the Ribble Valley, where the proportions travelling less than 5km fall to 34%. Ribble Valley has a long history as a commuter "dormitory" but also, as well as having a high proportion of people working at or from home, also have industrial structures that are dominated by large international companies with large plants in semi-rural locations that attract their workforce from a large labour catchment area. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 90 of 130 4.8 Sex and distance travelled to work in Lancashire In Pennine Lancashire men were more likely to travel over 40 km to work than women. Three percent of men compared to 1.4% of women travelled over 40km to work. Pattern is similar in Blackburn with Darwen. Conversely, a third of women worked less than 2 km from home, compared to a quarter of men in Pennine Lancashire (Table 4.9). In Blackburn with Darwen this changes to 28% of women and 23% of men work less than 2km from home. Table 4.9: Sex and Distance Travelled to Work in Lancashire, 2001 All people Blackburn with Darwen M 31,582 F 27,362 Burnley M 19,555 F 18,699 Hyndburn M 17,148 F 14,317 Pendle M 18,932 F 13,669 Ribble Valley M 14,432 F 9,667 Rossendale M 12,429 F 10,489 Pennine Lancashire M 114,078 F 94,203 Lancashire NUTS-2 M 319,812 F 276,356 People aged 16-74 and in employment People who travel a distance to work of: 5 to 10 to 20 to 30 to 40 to more 10 km 20 km 30 40 60 than 60 km km km km less than 2 km 2 to 5 km Work mainly at or from home 23.2% 28.4% 24.9% 34.1% 22.4% 34.5% 27.5% 38.0% 17.5% 31.1% 21.3% 25.2% 29.3% 26.2% 30.6% 21.5% 24.7% 20.7% 24.2% 9.7% 12.8% 18.9% 16.3% 18.7% 16.9% 15.2% 19.5% 17.3% 17.1% 17.2% 19.6% 18.4% 16.4% 13.2% 11.6% 11.2% 9.8% 12.3% 10.4% 10.7% 6.7% 21.8% 15.0% 14.2% 4.1% 2.6% 3.0% 1.6% 4.6% 2.5% 3.7% 2.2% 5.6% 3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 3.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.9% 12.6% 7.0% 13.5% 6.6% 14.7% 8.0% 15.2% 9.4% 19.9% 15.6% 20.8% 32.0% 23.5% 16.3% 11.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.2% 12.0% 23.2% 32.5% 19.7% 30.7% 21.4% 25.8% 20.9% 25.8% 17.5% 17.3% 17.1% 17.6% 13.5% 10.6% 13.6% 10.4% 4.0% 2.4% 5.4% 3.3% 2.2% 1.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 15.3% 8.9% 16.3% 9.1% Source ONS: 2001 Census of Population Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 91 of 130 4.9 Car ownership in Lancashire – 2001 census The table below details car and van ownership in Lancashire. For the Lancashire NUTS-2 area, a total of 72.8% of households have at least one car or van, which compares with an England and Wales average of 73.2%. At the district level, Burnley has highest percentage of households (34.1%) that have neither type of vehicle whilst only 14.6% of households in Ribble Valley district are without direct access to a car or van. Table 4.10: Car and Van Ownership, 2001[1] All households Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire Lancashire NUTS-2 North West England and Wales Percentage of households with number of cars or vans: None One Two Three Four+ All cars and vans[2] 53,407 33.5 45.1 17.7 2.9 0.7 49,448 36,796 32,976 35,960 22,210 27,112 34.1 30.4 29.6 14.6 25.4 44.9 46.4 46.3 43.9 44.4 17.7 19.3 19.6 33.0 24.7 2.6 3.1 3.4 6.4 4.2 0.7 0.8 1.0 2.1 1.3 33,556 32,242 36,171 30,807 30,403 208,461 586,215 2,812,789 21,660,475 29.4 27.2 30.2 26.8 45.3 45.3 43.5 43.8 20.8 22.4 21.5 23.5 3.5 4.0 3.7 4.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 212,627 627,921 2,874,991 23,936,250 [1] Includes any company car or van if available for private use. [2] "All cars and vans" includes only those cars and vans owned by, or available for use by, households. Source ONS: 2001 Census of Population Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 92 of 130 4.10 Mode of transport used to travel to work People of working age (16 to 74) in employment were asked in the 2001 Census about how they travel to work. The 2001 census recorded people of working age (16 to 74). In total, 66.3% of residents in the borough, who are in employment, travel to work by car compared to 61% in England and Wales. 8.2% of people travel to work by public transport (by train or bus) compared to 14.9% nationally. 13% of people travel to work “on foot” compared to 10% nationally. Figures from the 2001 census reveal that for travelling to work within the Blackburn with Darwen area, there is a higher reliance on using a car or van than the national average. A total of 66.3% of commuters either drive a car or van to work, or are a passenger. In comparison, the England and Wales average is 61.0%. The higher level of reliance on private transport in the authority leads to lower levels of public transport use. Only 1% of people in Blackburn with Darwen usually commute to work by train (4.2% nationally), whilst the proportion using a bus, mini-bus or coach is only 7.2% against an England and Wales average of 7.4%. Only 1.2% Cycle to work, this mode of transport is less popular than the 2.8% average for England whilst, motorcycles, scooters or mopeds account for 0.9% in Lancashire and 1.1% across England and Wales. More people usually walk to work in Blackburn with Darwen (13%) than in comparison with the England and Wales average of 10%. Table 4.11: Mode of travel to work Blackburn with Darwen Pennine Lancashire North West England Working mainly at or from home 8.1% 8.6% 8.4% 9.2% Underground, metro, light rail, tram 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% Train 0.9% 0.6% 1.9% 4.2% Bus, mini-bus, coach 7.2% 6.6% 8.6% 7.5% Motorcycle, scooter, moped 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% Driving a car or van 57.1% 59.6% 58.4% 54.9% Passenger in a car or van 9.2% 8.8% 7.5% 6.1% Taxi or minicab 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% Bicycle 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 2.8% On foot 13.2% 12.4% 10.3% 10.0% Other 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 53,566 219,798 2,900,020 22,441,498 All people in employment Source: 2001 Census Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 93 of 130 Table 4.12: Mode of travel to work by district Blackburn Burnley with Darwen Working mainly at or 8.1% 7.4% from home Underground, metro, 0.1% 0.0% light rail, tram Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendal e Pennine Lancashire 7.5% 8.1% 13.0% 8.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Train 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% Bus, mini-bus, coach 7.2% 8.5% 6.7% 6.4% 2.2% 6.9% 6.6% Motorcycle, scooter, moped 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% Driving a car or van 57.1% 56.5% 60.7% 58.6% 64.5% 64.0% 59.6% Passenger in a car or van 9.2% 10.6% 9.1% 8.8% 5.6% 7.9% 8.8% Taxi or minicab 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% Bicycle 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% On foot 13.2% 13.6% 12.2% 14.2% 10.5% 9.6% 12.4% Other 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 53,566 38,108 34,781 37,045 26,403 29,895 219,798 All people in employment Source: 2001 Census Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 94 of 130 4.11 NI 176 Working age population with access to employment by public transport This indicator measures the percentage of people of working age (aged 16 to 74 years) living within the catchment area of a location with more than 500 jobs by public transport and/or walking. The data enables year on year comparisons to be made, however, please note that there have been improvements in data quality and coverage during these years and therefore an in increase in accessibility may not entirely be attributable to interventions made by local authority. There have also been methodology changes between 2005 indicators and the revised 2007 and 2008 indicators, therefore comparisons between 2005 and recent years should be made with caution Table 4.13: Working age population with access to employment by public transport % point 2007 2008 2009 difference (2007-2009) Blackburn with Darwen 83 84 82 -1 Lancashire County Council 82 82 82 Blackpool UA Manchester MD 86 85 86 86 85 85 -1 - North West 83 83 82 -1 Source: Places Analysis Tool Data for this indicator is available at NUTS3 level, it is therefore not possible to see trends by district within Lancashire. Data available for the North West suggests that between 82-83% of the working age people have access to a catchment area with more than 500 jobs by public transport. The figures for Blackpool and Manchester metropolitan districts show a higher percentage of people having access by public transport. 4.12 NI 177 Local bus and light rail passenger journeys originating in the authority area This indicator measures the total number of local bus and light rail passenger journeys originating in the authority area in a given year. Local bus services are defined for the purposes of this indicator as those using one or more public service vehicles for the carriage of passengers by road at separate fares where the stopping places, or journey length, are less than 15 miles (24 kilometres) apart. Table 4.13: Working age population with access to employment by public transport 2008 2009 Blackburn with Darwen 7745390 4952788 Lancashire County Council 67610000 62745230 Blackpool UA Source: Places Analysis Tool Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment 15095501 14457000 Page 95 of 130 Chapter Five : Housing This chapter presents key statistics about the local housing market and the implications for the local economy Table 4 below shows the types of houses (dwellings) in Blackburn with Darwen compared to the North West region and England at the time of the 2001 Census. Most noticeably Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire both have higher proportions of terraced than regionally or nationally. Consequently, Blackburn with Darwen has a lower proportion of detached and semi-detached properties. Table 5: Percentage of unshared dwellings by type in Blackburn with Darwen, the North West region and England House type BwD Pennine North England Lancashire West Detached House or Bungalow 13.5% 15.7% 18.0% 22.7% Semi-detached House or 28.4% 27.4% 37.4% 32.1% Bungalow Terraced (including end 47.4% 48.3% 31.3% 25.7% terraced) House or Bungalow Flat, maisonette or apartment In a purpose built block of flats or tenement Flat, maisonette or apartment Part of a converted or shared house (includes bedsits) Flat, maisonette or apartment In a commercial building Total flats Caravan or other mobile or temporary structure 8.5% 6.5% 9.8% 13.7% 1.3% 0.9% 2.3% 4.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 10.6% 8.3% 13.0% 19.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% Source: 2001 Census, ONS, Crown copyright Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 96 of 130 5.1 Household tenure According to 2001 Census data, Blackburn with Darwen has a higher proportion of households that own their house (70.5%) either with a mortgage or outright compared with regionally and nationally (68.7% and 69.3% respectively). One fifth of the population lived in rented accommodation, this is higher than both the regional and national average, however the proportion that rent from the council is higher both regionally and nationally - approximately 13% compared to 9.7% in Blackburn with Darwen while those renting from other social landlords is higher in Blackburn with Darwen (9.3%) than regionally (6.1%) and nationally (6.5%). Within Pennine Lancashire as a whole nearly three quarters own their own home (mortgaged or owned outright) which is higher than the Blackburn with Darwen figure while those renting from council or other social landlord is lower. Housing provision has seen major change within Blackburn with Darwen over recent years. In March 2001 council houses in the borough were transferred to Twin Valley Homes Ltd, now the main provider of social rented properties in the borough. Although no longer directly responsible for providing rented accommodation, the Council still has a role in the strategic development of social rented, private rented and privately owned properties in the borough. An example of this is the Elevate East Lancashire Housing Market Renewal (HMR) project, of which Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council is a partner. The project aims to develop the housing market in the area and improve the long term sustainability of areas experiencing low demand. Within the Pennine Lancashire districts household ownership is highest in the Ribble valley (81.2%) and Rossendale (71.9%) and lowest in Blackburn with Darwen. Renting from the council is highest in the Rossendale (15.1%) higher than the national or regional figure and lowest in the Ribble valley (5.4%). In Hyndburn and Pendle the percentage renting is similar to Blackburn with Darwen levels. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 97 of 130 5.2 Interaction of housing and the Economy Housing costs are a major factor in determining how a local economy functions. If they are too high compared to incomes, it will be difficult to attract people to an area. Within context of the overall UK housing market, prices in Blackburn with Darwen are relatively low due to large stock of terraced dwellings; however, they vary considerably within urban areas and throughout the surrounding local authority areas. 5.3 House prices and Housing costs In 2006, the median house price for properties in Blackburn with Darwen was £89,950 a 173% increase from 1996 when the median was £33,000. Although house prices in the borough remain below the median for the North West, the 2006 median was £127,000, the rate of increase has been on a par with the region (North West also seeing 173% increase from 1996 to 2006). A factor contributing to the lower house prices in Blackburn with Darwen is the high proportion of terraced housing in the borough. Terraced housing generally commands some of the lowest sales prices of the types of housing available. Table 5.1: Change in House Prices between 1998 and 2008 Lower Quartile England Northwest Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale 1999 2009 50,000 36,500 123,000 92,000 26,000 67,750 22,188 24,000 20,000 50,000 30,000 50,000 60,000 57,000 127,750 75,000 Median % Change 146% 152% 161% 125% 150% 185% 156% 150% 1999 2009 74,000 53,950 170,000 130,000 39,950 98,000 37,000 36,250 34,000 69,000 44,000 75,000 85,000 83,500 165,000 112,000 Mean % Change 130% 141% 145% 103% 134% 146% 139% 155% 1999 2009 98,385 66,289 216,493 154,436 47,508 114,200 42,986 42,179 45,439 60,062 87,679 92,238 100,012 108,297 142,262 211,026 % Change 120% 133% 140% 115% 137% 138% 137% 141% Source :DCLG Live Tables, House Price data Table 4.1 above shows that house prices have risen substantially during 10 year period 1999 to 2009. The percentage change for both Blackburn with Darwen and Rossendale for mean (average) house prices was +140% between 1998 and 2008 and +120% in England. The mean (average) house price in both England and the Northwest was higher than in Blackburn with Darwen. The median house price in Blackburn with Darwen rose by 145% between 1999 and 2009 (compared to 141% in the Northwest and 130% in England). Lower quartile house prices in Blackburn with Darwen increased at a higher rate (161%) than for the median (145%) and the mean (140%) during the 10 year period. The increase for lower quartile house prices was greater than in Blackburn with Darwen +161% compare to 152% in the Northwest and +146% in England between 1998 and 2008. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 98 of 130 5.4 House prices and sales volume by housing type In the 1st quarter of 2010 the average price of a property in Blackburn with Darwen was £108,571 and £109,170 in Pennine Lancashire compared to £153,126 for the North West The land registry produces a House price Index (HPI) which is a good measure of how prices have increased annually. The HPI for Q1 2010 show that house prices have fallen again compared to the previous quarter (figure 1.2). Pennine Lancashire (-11%) has experienced a significantly larger reduction than the North West (-3%). Sales volume (figure 1.3) has also fallen in Pennine Lancashire (-37%) from previous quarter. There has been a continued downward trend from Q3 2009, whilst nationally anecdotal reports suggest sales have increased. When analysed by housing types (figure 1.1), it can be seen that all housing types have declined in value with the exception of flats and maisonettes, although the sales volume in this housing type is usually low in Pennine Lancashire. Terraced property prices have fallen with significant losses seen in Hyndburn (-15%), although current prices are higher than those from a year earlier, particularly in Rossendale (+11%). Prices in other housing types such as semi’s and detached properties have declined although they also remain higher than a year earlier. This suggests that prices in Pennine Lancashire remain volatile with hopes of stability still some way off. The numbers in the bracket next to local authority names in figure 1.1 denote the position placed from the BBC house price ranking out of 379 local authorities in the UK. Burnley (378), Hyndburn (377) and Pendle (373) are within the 7 lowest ranked local authority house prices within the country and all but Ribble Valley fall in the lowest 10% nationally. These ranking were previously reported by Regenerate in July 2009 where similar results were shown. BwD (6%) and Rossendale (4.5%) have had above Pennine Lancashire average (2.6%) proportion of new build properties sold. BwD has sold many new build flats and maisonettes (40%). It is expected to see higher new build sales in flats/maisonettes as, prior to the credit crunch, high density living was the affordable means to enter the housing market. Prices fell as demand for this housing type fell. Since the recession began, delayed construction sites may now be moving closer to completions on some private developments and this, more affordable option, may continue to increase. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 99 of 130 Table 5.2: Q1 2010 House Price Analysis AREA Q1 2010 Price AVERAGE Quarterly PRICE Change (2009 Q4) Q4 2009 AVERAGE ACROSS ALL TENURES BwD (360) £108,571 -5.3% Burnley (378) £86,231 -11.3% Hyndburn (377) £88,294 -19.3% Pendle (373) £95,363 -10.4% Ribble Valley (184) £197,987 -8.5% Rossendale (345) £121,041 -6.2% Pennine £109,170 -11.4% Lancashire North West £153,126 -3.4% Price Yearly Change Q1 2009 Q1 2010 SALES VOLUME % New Build Sales Quarterly Change (2009 Q4) Sales -Yearly Change (Q4 2009) 1.6% -1.2% -1.8% -2.9% -7.0% 3.6% 0.3% 302 203 169 210 112 111 1,107 6.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 4.5% 2.6% -34.5% -31.2% -35.7% -33.8% -46.2% -49.8% -37.3% 58.1% 34.4% 27.1% 68.0% 75.0% 23.3% 46.8% 6.3% 11,796 - -34.3% 32.6% TERRACED BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire £82,851 £65,029 £69,378 £67,390 £139,738 £87,372 £77,670 1.5% -3.2% -14.9% -11.7% -6.3% -2.6% -6.5% -1.5% 6.5% 1.3% -10.6% -5.5% 10.7% -0.3% 153 136 123 145 46 60 663 1.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% -38.3% -26.9% -19.1% -31.9% -28.1% -45.0% -31.8% 45.7% 38.8% 28.1% 72.6% 48.4% 27.7% 43.8% £127,544 £120,090 £131,615 £130,768 £179,926 £116,956 £132,546 -8.1% -5.9% 0.4% -15.0% 4.4% -8.1% -6.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.9% 11.8% -27.2% 4.1% 1.9% 75 48 26 46 31 25 251 2.7% 0.0% 3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% -44.9% -35.1% -63.9% -41.8% -59.2% -56.1% -49.2% 87.5% 33.3% 18.2% 100.0% 106.7% 66.7% 66.2% £201,195 £173,100 £177,635 £250,838 £327,756 £200,250 £227,638 -7.7% -14.6% -4.8% 17.0% -7.9% -12.8% -7.5% 9.0% -8.8% -1.7% 21.9% -7.3% 4.2% 6.6% 39 16 13 16 27 19 130 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.8% -29.1% -50.0% -63.9% -30.4% -55.0% -58.7% -48.4% 56.0% 6.7% -7.1% 6.7% 80.0% -26.9% 18.2% £77,143 £42,333 £93,857 £75,333 £164,938 £209,214 £103,080 -1.0% -44.0% 23.5% -63.4% 29.7% 102.0% 7.0% -29.1% -51.1% -1.5% -14.4% 38.5% 108.8% 2.9% 35 3 7 3 8 7 63 40.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 28.6% 59.1% 0.0% 133.3% 50.0% 0.0% -22.2% 34.0% 66.7% 50.0% 600.0% 0.0% 166.7% 250.0% 96.9% SEMI_DETACHED BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire DETACHED HOUSES BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire FLAT/MAISONETTE BwD Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire Source Land Registry Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 100 of 130 5.5 House prices and earnings Two measures of house price affordability are available, the first is the ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings and the second is ratio of median house prices to median income. The preferred measure for house price affordability is the ratio of lower quartile house price (cheapest housing0 to lower quartile earnings (lowest income); these are combined to construct a ratio of lowerquartile price to income ratio. Figures for these ratios are published by the Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG). Notes: For 2009, the ratio for Blackburn with Darwen was 3.96, that is, for those on lower quartile earnings, a house at the bottom end of the market would cost them nearly 4 times their annual earnings. Table 4.3 below shows, that in 2009 the Ribble Valley and Rossendale had the worst affordability ratio out of the Pennine Lancashire authorities ((Unitary, boroughs) Table 5.3: Ratios of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings for Pennine Lancashire districts Authority – ranked in descending Affordability ratio order of affordability 2009 Blackburn with Darwen 3.96 Burnley 3.07 Hyndburn 4.18 Pendle 3.87 Ribble valley 7.61 Rossendale 4.90 North west England Source: Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment 5.02 6.28 Page 101 of 130 5.6 Ratio of median house prices to median earnings This indicator is the major international measure of housing affordability and cost. When high, it is a sign that housing markets are not working properly. Ratio of median house prices to median earnings 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Blackburn with Darwen England North West 1 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004R 2005R 2006R 2007R 2008R 2009R Table 5.4: Ratio of Median House Price to Median Individual Earnings, 1997 to 2009 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Blackburn 2.25 2.22 2.46 2.38 2.17 2.24 2.37 3.15 with Darwen Burnley 2.01 2.12 2.01 2.06 1.94 1.79 1.85 1.88 Hyndburn 2.35 2.06 2.35 2.44 2.45 1.99 2.07 3.38 Pendle 2.03 2.19 2.24 2.03 2.19 2.09 2.29 2.79 Ribble Valley 3.60 3.66 3.41 4.63 4.33 4.17 6.25 8.68 Rossendale 2.82 3.16 3.36 3.03 3.10 3.07 3.68 4.80 North West England 3.01 3.54 3.01 3.67 3.04 3.86 3.09 4.21 3.19 4.47 3.43 5.07 3.94 5.83 4.84 6.58 2005 3.90 2006 4.23 2007 4.27 2008 4.39 2009 4.15 2.39 3.68 3.01 7.33 5.59 2.94 4.62 3.76 7.85 5.71 3.75 4.54 4.36 7.58 6.11 3.72 4.67 4.22 7.44 6.64 3.58 4.03 4.01 7.35 5.19 5.38 6.81 5.68 6.97 5.81 7.23 5.54 6.93 5.17 6.27 Source: DCLG Live Tables, House Price Data The ratio of median house price to median income rose from 2.46 in 1999 (compared to 3.04 in the Northwest and 3.86 in England) to a ratio of 4.15 in 2009 (compared to 5.17 in the Northwest and 6.27 in England). This indicates a change making housing less affordable both in Blackburn with Darwen and elsewhere during this time period. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 102 of 130 5.7 Wages in Blackburn with Darwen Wages in Blackburn with Darwen do not compare favourably with the Northwest and the median wage for Great Britain. The median weekly wage for residents in Blackburn with Darwen working full time for 2008 is £429.3 compared to £460.2 in the Northwest and £496 in England. (Source: ASHE survey 2009, NOMIS website) 5.8 Trends in house prices and volume of sales Data from the land registry website shows that between July 2007 and July 2010 house prices in Blackburn with Darwen had dropped by 16%. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 103 of 130 5.9 Dwelling stock by tenure Table 5.5: Dwelling Stock by Tenure, 2009 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Pennine Lancashire North West England Total dwelling stock 57,353 Local authority Registered social landlords No. % 11,226 19.6 Other public sector No. % 46 0.1 Owner-occupied and privately rented No. % 46,079 80.3 No. 2 % 0.0 40,343 36,114 40,006 25,315 29,891 229,022 0 5 0 4 0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 5,836 4,838 4,513 1,741 4,531 32,685 14.5 13.4 11.3 6.9 15.2 14.3 36 0 0 152 0 234 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 34,471 31,271 35,493 23,418 25,360 196,092 85.4 86.6 88.7 92.5 84.8 85.6 3,092,610 22,564,243 153,604 1,819,696 5.0 8.1 424,537 2,195,195 13.7 9.7 1,934 73,698 0.1 0.3 2,512,535 18,475,654 81.2 81.9 Source Office for National Statistics: Dwelling Stock by Tenure and Condition Hyndburn and Blackburn with Darwen no longer have Local Authority owned stock, both have been transferred to Housing Associations (Hyndburn Homes and Twin Valley). There are different levels of social rented stock with 19.6% in Blackburn with Darwen (above the national average) and 13.4% in Hyndburn below the regional average of 13.7%. Table 4.5 shows that out of a total dwelling stock of 57,353 in Blackburn with Darwen, one fifth was run by registered social landlords, the vast majority 80% was either owner occupied or privately rented, the stock registered with social landlords was higher the Pennine Lancashire (14%), regional (14%) and national average (10%). Ribble valley has the lowest number of stock held by registered social landlords (7%), Blackburn with Darwen the highest with 20%. The proportion of owner occupied housing stock is highest in the Ribble valley and lowest in Blackburn with Darwen Table 5.6 shows the amount of new private housing that were completed in 2009/10 (new builds completed). The number of new builds in Blackburn with Darwen local authority area was 310, the majority of which were private builds (87%). The number of new builds is much lower in the social rented sector than in the private sector, there are few – if any – social new build starts in the vast majority of local authority areas within Pennine Lancashire. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 104 of 130 Table 5.6: Permanent dwelling completed by tenure and district 2009/10 2004/05 Total build Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale North West England 220 Private enterprise No. % 270 87.1 Registered social landlords No. % 40 12.9 No. - LA % - Total No 310 80 170 180 160 320 110 20 50 10 80 100 100 100 16.7 66.7 40 40 66.7 33.3 - - 110 20 50 60 120 17,910 155,890 8.900 88.630 90.0 78.0 900 24,740 9.1 21.8 80 300 0.8 0.3 9,880 113,670 Source Office for National Statistics: Dwelling Stock by Tenure and Condition Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 105 of 130 5.10 Number of affordable homes delivered This indicator monitors the number of affordable homes built or acquired. These have been included in Blackburn with Darwen’s Local area agreement 2008-2011, as affordable housing was identified as a priority. The baseline (55) for this indicator was established in 2005-08 and the target is to increase this to 68 affordable homes deliver in 2008-09, 126 in 2009-10 and 114 in 2010-11. Table 5.7: Affordable homes delivered Blackburn with Darwen Blackpool Burnley 2003/04 na 2004/05 na 2005/06 79 2006/07 104 2007/08 188 2008/09 82 26 109 44 94 na 0 na na 12 0 40 10 Hyndburn 10 10 0 20 0 5 Pendle na na 0 0 1 4 Ribble Valley na na 0 12 40 49 Rossendale na na 0 20 23 2 Lancashire (14 authorities) na na 351 399 519* 343 na = not available * Excludes Blackpool Source: Lancashire districts and the two unitaries Spatial Planning in Lancs Monitoring Report 3, Table 12 (page 37) district results 2003/04 to 2008/09 Blackburn with Darwen exceeded the target set for 2008/09 and delivered 82 affordable homes against a target of 68. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 106 of 130 5.11 Vacant dwellings by local authority area Table 5.8: Vacant dwellings by district 2008 2008 2008 2008 All Vacant Dwellings (Excluding Second Homes) All Vacant Dwellings (Excluding Second Homes) All Vacant Dwellings (Including Second Homes) All Vacant Dwellings (Including Second Homes) Count % Count % Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale .. 3128 .. .. 685 .. .. 7.7 .. .. 2.8 .. .. 3172 .. .. 899 .. .. 7.8 .. .. 3.7 .. North West 79272 4.6 79693 5.1 England 412709 3.6 515643 4.7 Source: Communities and Local Government, via Neighbourhood Statistics, Office for National Statistics (ONS) In 2008 in Burnley there were 3128 vacant dwellings (excluding second homes), which is 7.7% of all homes. This is greater than the proportion of vacant homes in North West. The number of vacant homes in the Ribble Valley was 685 2.8% of all homes. The number of vacant dwellings (including second homes) was higher in each of the two districts. No data is available is for the other Pennine Lancashire districts. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 107 of 130 5.12 Council Tax Table 5.10 provides numbers and percentages for each council tax band. The most striking aspect is that in four authorities in the Pennine Lancashire sub-region have three out of five or 60% of its dwellings classified in the lowest tax band 'A', (with limited amount of housing stock in Council Tax bandings ‘E+’) a figure noticeably higher that the average for England and Wales of 24.47%. The indicates a lack of choice of property type available, with a large proportion being old, in poor condition and no longer meeting the needs and aspirations of the local population. The four East Lancashire authorities of Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle and Blackburn with Darwen all recorded over 59% of their dwellings classified in the lowest band 'A' category. Table 5.9: Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band, 2008 Local authority council tax band Band C Band D Band E Number of taxed properties 8,056 4,198 2,067 Band F Band G Band H 783 549 67 1,265 886 1,720 3,250 1,825 327 270 944 2,026 638 141 169 520 1,858 428 18 15 44 192 38 312,218 3,645,469 181,326 2,303,861 88,333 1,230,844 59,495 845,419 6,153 137,678 13.59 7.08 3.49 1.32 0.93 0.11 15.04 15.36 10.60 19.34 12.57 6.78 7.58 7.50 18.03 10.54 3.13 2.44 4.34 13.23 6.01 0.81 0.74 2.38 8.25 2.10 0.35 0.47 1.31 7.56 1.41 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.78 0.13 North West 42.30 19.43 17.43 10.05 5.83 England & Wales 24.47 19.56 21.70 15.30 9.67 Totals include a tiny number (less than 0.01%) of unallocated property records. Source Valuation Office Agency: Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band 2.84 5.17 1.91 3.55 0.20 0.58 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Band A Band B 35,065 8,513 25,131 21,501 24,812 3,374 15,743 4,733 5,097 4,402 4,689 4,688 6,080 5,569 4,200 4,753 3,818 2,743 2,749 2,970 4,430 3,203 604,001 4,660,373 541,698 5,170,221 14.36 11.70 14.06 11.11 19.08 15.43 North West 1,314,734 England & Wales 5,831,148 Percentage of taxed properties Blackburn with 59.13 Darwen Burnley 62.15 Hyndburn 59.30 Pendle 62.64 Ribble Valley 13.73 Rossendale 51.82 The percentage of band 'B' properties vary from 19% in the Ribble Valley to 11% in Pendle. Apart from the Ribble Valley all other areas council tax banding for band B fall short of the regional and national average, especially for those towns in the east of the county, viz. Burnley and Pendle both of which only have 11% of housing stock in band B. From band C onwards the percentages in Pennine Lancashire fall noticeably below the norm for England and Wales. An amalgamation of the highest tax bands of 'F' to 'H' accounts for 9.30% of properties in England and Wales as a whole but over a quarter (28.8%) in the Pennine Lancashire area. In Ribble Valley the proportions is 16.59%. In contrast, Burnley and Hyndburn recorded less than 1.3% of their dwellings in the top three bands. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 108 of 130 Chapter 6: Environment The European Landfill Directive requires the Country to divert biodegradable waste from landfill sites. Rotting rubbish in tips creates methane which is a powerful greenhouse gas and contributes to global warming. Dealing with waste growth and having a balanced waste policy including energy recovery and recycling helps to contribute to meeting this national requirement The Government has set the targets that have to be achieved. In order to meet these targets authorities must aim to reduce the amount of waste produced per household, increase the amount recycled and reduce the amount of waste going to landfill. Central government has set a number of measures for local government over the next few years. These national indicators are listed below NI 191: Reducing the amount of household waster per household NI 192: The percentage of household waste sent for reuse, recycling or composting is indicator NI 193: Percentage of Municipal Waste Sent to Landfill Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 109 of 130 6.1 NI 191: Residual household waste per household In Blackburn with Darwen, 609 kg of residual waste was recorded per household in 2008/09. This is less than the waste per household in the North West region (700.6 kg) and England (668.8 kg) Table 6: Residual household waste per household Blackburn with Darwen North West England 2002/03 2003/04 1060.9 940.6 1162.3 1095 1023.6 962.4 2004/05 2005/06 909.3 873.3 1012.3 950.2 911.5 844.7 2006/07 2007/08 825.4 686 857.2 770 798.5 735.5 2008/09 609 700.6 668.8 Source: Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Local Authority data from 2002/03 to 2006/07 was downloaded from Waste Data Flow. Local Authority data for 2007/08 and 2008/09 was downloaded from Floor Target Interactive. National and regional figures were collect from the Waste Statistics on DEFRA's website. From 2007/08 to 2008/09, the amount of residual waste in Blackburn with Darwen reduced by 77 kg per household compared with a reduction of 69.4 kg for the North West region. Table 6.1: Local Rates for National Indicator 191, 2007/08 and 2008/09 Residual household waster per Waste collection household % change authorities 2007/08 2008/09 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 686 609 -11.2% 525 507 -3.4% Hyndburn 422 423 0.2% Pendle 573 536 -6.5% Ribble Valley 659 536 -18.7% Rossendale 521 496 -4.8% 770 700.6 -9.0% 735.5 668.8 -9.1% North West England Source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) – Municipal Waste Statistics – Local Authority Data The largest percentage decrease has been in the Ribble Valley (19%) and Blackburn with Darwen (11%). Hyndburn has experienced a 0.2% increase in its residual household waste per household. Only two authorities reduced household waste by a greater percentage than the regionally and nationally. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 110 of 130 6.2 NI 192: Percentage of household waste sent for reuse, recycling or composting The National Performance Indicator NI 192, measures the percentage of household waste that have been sent by a local authority for reuse, recycling, composting or treatment by anaerobic digestion. In Blackburn with Darwen, 41.1 per cent of household waste was sent for reuse, recycling or composting in 2008/09. The percentage of waste sent for reuse, recycling or composting increased in Blackburn with Darwen between 2007/08 and 2008/09, from 34.3 to 41.1 per cent At the local authority level within Pennine Lancashire, recycling rates varied with the lowest being Burnley with 33.4%. Both Blackburn with Darwen and Ribble Valley recorded substantial improvements in their rates over the past year with Blackburn with Darwen increasing its recycling from 33.8% to 41.1% an increase of 7.3% points and Ribble Valley by 1.7% points. Table 6.2: Local Rates for National Indicator 192, 2007/08 and 2008/09 Percentage of household waste sent for reuse, Waste collection recycling or composting authorities 2007/08 2008/09 Blackburn with Darwen 34.3 41.1 Burnley 32.9 33.4 Hyndburn 36.9 36.6 Pendle 33.8 34.8 Ribble Valley 26.2 37.9 Rossendale 34.3 37.6 North West England 33.4 34.5 36.6 37.6 Source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) – Municipal Waste Statistics – Local Authority Data Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 111 of 130 6.3 NI 193: Percentage of Municipal Waste sent to landfill In 2008/09 Blackburn with Darwen, sent 59.3 per cent of its municipal waste to landfill. This is greater than that sent for the North West region (58.6%) and England (50.3%) Although the percentage sent to landfill is higher than the regional and national average, over time the percentage of municipal waste sent to landfill in Blackburn with Darwen has decreased by a greater amount from 86% in 2003 to 59% in 2009, (a decrease of 27% points) while for the North West and England the percentage sent to landfill during this same period while also decreasing, has decreased by approximately 25%. Table 6.3: North West England 2002/03 Blackburn with Darwen 85.8 83 75 2003/04 79.7 80 72 2004/05 76.2 74.7 66.9 2005/06 73.7 70.3 62.2 2006/07 71.3 65.9 57.9 2007/08 65 62.2 54.4 2008/09 59.3 58.6 50.3 Source: Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Local Authority data from 2002/03 to 2006/07 was downloaded from WasteDataFlow. Local Authority data for 2007/08 and 2008/09 was downloaded from Floor Target Interactive. National and regional figures were collect from the Waste Statistics on DEFRA's website. 100 Percentage of municapal waste sent to landfill 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Blackburn with Darwen North West England 10 0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Data for other Lancashire Authorities including Pennine Lancashire districts does not exist. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 112 of 130 6.4 Energy Consumption The website for the Department for Energy and Climate Change contains tables that detail energy consumption down to the local authority level. This data is used to detail local authority energy consumption figures for the Pennine Lancashire authorities. At the time of writing this article in June 2010, the latest set of results was for 2007. The figures are produced to assist local authorities, regional development authorities and other subnational bodies to develop, implement and monitor energy strategies. There are some limitations to the data and it is important to remember that local authorities are diverse, with some being heavily industrial whilst others are predominantly rural in nature. It is apparent that in Lancashire, major industrial users have a dramatic influence on the results for some local authorities. Table 6.4: Energy consumption of domestic gas and electricity Energy Consumption Average consumption of domestic gas kWh Average consumption of ordinary domestic electricity 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 Blackburn with Darwen 20141 19362 18895 4135 3878 3820 North West 19429 18657 17932 4161 3985 3929 England 18921 18132 17508 4110 4029 3952 Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Average Consumption of Ordinary Domestic Electricity In 2007, the average consumption of ordinary domestic electricity for Blackburn with Darwen was 3820 kWh per meter point, which is lower than the regional average of 3929 kWh. Since 2005 there has been a reduction in domestic electricity usage of 315 kWh per meter point in Blackburn with Darwen, which compares to a regional a decrease of 232 kWh. Average Consumption of Domestic Gas In 2007, the average consumption of domestic gas for Blackburn with Darwen was 18895 kWh per meter point, which is higher than the regional average of 17932 kWh. Since 2005 there has been a reduction in domestic gas usage of 1246 kWh per meter point in Blackburn with Darwen, which compares to a regional a decrease of 1497 kWh. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 113 of 130 Table 6.5: Energy consumption by district Energy Consumption Average consumption of domestic gas kWh Average consumption of ordinary domestic electricity 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 Blackburn with Darwen 20141 19362 18895 4135 3878 3820 Burnley 19081 18342 17806 4029 3785 3697 Hyndburn 18997 18315 17842 3968 3759 3717 Pendle 19468 18734 18378 4022 3780 3707 Ribble Valley 22260 21498 20915 4797 4576 4590 Rossendale 21821 20934 20321 4391 4130 4060 Pennine Lancashire 121768 117185 114157 25342 23908 23591 North West 19429 18657 17932 4161 3985 3929 England 18921 18132 17508 4110 4029 3952 Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Table 6.6: Energy consumption change Average consumption of domestic gas kWh Average consumption of ordinary domestic electricity % change (2005-2007) % change (2005-2007) Blackburn with Darwen -6.2% -7.6% Burnley -6.7% -8.2% Hyndburn -6.1% -6.3% Pendle -5.6% -7.8% Ribble Valley -6.0% -4.3% Rossendale -6.9% -7.5% North West -7.7% -5.6% England -7.5% -3.8% Energy Consumption Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) The tables above show average consumption of domestic gas and ordinary domestic electricity, over the 3 year period from 2005 to 2007 all Pennine Lancashire districts have experienced a reduction in their domestic energy consumption levels. For domestic gas these are below regional and national levels. While for domestic electricity all districts had reductions greater than the national average, while at the regional level Ribble valley had a reduction which was lower than that achieved for the region. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 114 of 130 6.5 Estimates of local carbon dioxide emissions Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal greenhouse gas believed to be contributing to global warming. The vast majority of man-made CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels in power generation and in the transport, domestic and industrial sectors. The level of emissions depends on the fuel mix and the fuel consumption data. In 2007, the estimate of carbon dioxide emissions for Blackburn with Darwen was 8.1 tonnes per head. Since 2005 there has been a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 0.2 tonnes per head. Table 6.7: Tonnes per head (CO2) Estimated per capita emissions of CO2 2005 2006 2007 8.3 8.3 8.1 Blackburn with Darwen Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Total CO2 emissions in the 14-authority Lancashire sub-region in 2007 were estimated at 11.82 million tonnes (Table 5.7). This represented 20.6% of the North West total of 57.3 million tonnes and 2.3% of the UK total. Overall, 41.6% of Lancashire emissions were attributable to industry and commerce sector sources, 29.6% to the domestic sector, 26.8% to road transport and a minor residual of 2.0% to land use, land use change and forestry. The small net emissions from land use changes in the broader Lancashire area (242kt) contrasts with the fact that for the UK as a whole, there was actually a modest net positive balance from this source with a net removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere. Total CO2 emissions in the 14-authority Lancashire sub-region in 2007 were estimated at 465 million tonnes (Table 5.8). This represented 8.1% of the North West total of 57.3 million tonnes and 0.9% of the UK total. Overall, 52.3% of Pennine Lancashire emissions were attributable to industry and commerce sector sources, 27.3% to the domestic sector, 19.5% to road transport and a minor residual of 0.5% to land use, land use change and forestry. Table 6.8: Local and Regional Estimates of Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2007 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Lancashire (14 Authority Area) Pennine Lancashire Industry and commerce 630 CO2 emission (thousands of tonnes) Domestic Road transport Land use change Total Per capita[1] CO2 emission (tonnes) 325 181 4 1,144 8.1 214 201 257 893 242 210 190 212 155 181 154 187 136 122 130 1 2 3 10 3 579 580 608 1,180 557 6.6 7.1 6.8 20.2 8.3 4,913 3,500 3,165 242 11,823 8.1 2437 1273 910 23 4648 North West 25,354 16,406 14,933 643 United Kingdom 232,945 145,725 136,361 -1,815 [1] Per capita rates are based on the ONS 2007 Mid-year Estimates of Population. 57,336 513,216 8.4 8.4 Source: Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 115 of 130 Expressed in terms of per capita (per resident), the total CO2 emissions of 8.1 tonnes per annum in the 14- were marginally lower than the UK average (8.4 tonnes). At the district authority level, CO2 emissions can exhibit wide variations due to differences in population numbers, geography and most especially the economy, with differing amounts of industrial and commercial activity being of particular importance. Across the broader Lancashire area, total CO2 emissions range from a low of 557kt in Rossendale, with slightly higher amounts in neighbouring Hyndburn and Burnley, to over 1,000kt in Ribble Valley and Blackburn with Darwen. Viewed in terms of CO2 per head rates, a slightly different pattern is evident with per capita emissions ranging from a low of just 6.6 in Burnley to 20.2 in the Ribble Valley. The presence of certain high-energy using industries like refineries, metals production, glass and other non-metallic mineral sectors, which are concentrated in a few areas, can have a very large local impact. Within Lancashire the share of emissions attributable to industry and commerce is greatest in those districts where energy-intensive industrial activities have a disproportionate representation. These include Blackburn with Darwen, but most especially Ribble Valley. A single major energy user in the form of a large cement works has a major impact on this outturn. Please note that the company's website contains details of its environmental performance. Across Lancashire, total domestic carbon dioxide emissions range from a high of 325kt in Blackburn with Darwen to just 155kt in Ribble Valley. Road transport emissions include freight and passenger transport, both private and for business purposes. The estimates of road transport CO2 are made on the basis of the distribution of traffic, therefore some of the emissions within an authority represent through traffic, or part of trips into or out of the area whether by residents or non-residents. In some authorities this can be particularly significant and may. None of the Pennine Lancashire authority exhibit particularly high figures especially in relation to authorities of Chorley, Preston and South Ribble which are the three authorities at the heart of the county's motorway network. Blackburn and Hyndburn have moderately large amounts and this may relate to the M65 extent that runs past and through these areas. Land use, land use change and forestry are the final sector considered in the CO2 estimates. This is very much a minor or residual category. Because it can act as a sink, removing carbon from the atmosphere, as well as a source of carbon emissions, the measure takes account of both CO 2 emissions and removals. Within the 14-authority Lancashire area, the sector is responsible for just 242kt of emissions. Ribble valley is the only Pennine Lancashire authority with a significant figure (10kt) in this category and is a reflection of the large amount of agricultural land and the resulting farm types. However within Lancashire there exist other authorities namely West Lancashire and Wyre that have greater emissions. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 116 of 130 6.6 NI 185 Greenhouse gas emissions The local authority emissions estimates published by DEFRA do not include GHG emissions (only CO2) but allow comparisons between areas. According to Defra’s local authority emissions data, CO2 emissions for Blackburn with Darwen from the industry and commercial sector was 630 ktCO2 in 2007 (55% of total emissions in Blackburn with Darwen) compared to approximately 45% in the region and nationally. Industry and commerce Great Britain 45.4% 28.4% Domestic 26.6% Road transport Land use change North West 44.2% Blackburn with Darwen 28.6% 26.0% 55.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 28.4% 40% 50% 60% 70% 15.8% 80% 90% 100% The total emissions from industry and commerce in Blackburn with Darwen, as a percentage of total Lancashire emissions is 12.8% and as a percentage of Pennine Lancashire it is 25.9%. The graph below shows emissions from each of the Pennine Lancashire areas shows emissions from industry and commerce to be highest in the Ribble Valley (76%) followed by Blackburn with Darwen (55%). Emissions from the industry and commerce sector were lowest in Hyndburn (34%) and Burnley (37%). The domestic sector was the 2nd largest contributor to emissions with the highest being Burnley at 36% followed by Pendle with 35%. Ribble valley had the lowest domestic sector emissions with 13%. Rossendale 43.4% Ribble Valley 32.5% 23.3% 75.7% Pendle 42.3% Hyndburn 34.7% Burnley 37.0% Blackburn with Darwen 0% 20% Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment 13.1%10.3% 34.9% 22.4% 32.8% Road transport Land use change 26.6% 28.4% 40% Domestic 32.2% 36.3% 55.1% Industry and commerce 60% 80% 15.8% 100% Page 117 of 130 It is the transport sector that shows the greatest contrast between the six Pennine Lancashire comparator areas, the rural area of Ribble Valley (10%) has the lowest emissions of the comparator areas and Hyndburn the highest (32%) Using data based on emissions per capita shows the Ribble Valley to have the highest emissions rate with 20.2% despite it having a similar emissions output to Blackburn with Darwen, this may be due to differences in the size of the population between the two areas, never the less even with a smaller population the total emissions for the Ribble Valley is high Table 6.9: Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble valley Rossendale North west United kingdom Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Total Emissions 1,144 579 580 608 1,180 557 Per capita[1] CO2 emission (tonnes) 8.1 6.6 7.1 6.8 20.2 8.3 57,336 513,216 8.4 8.4 Page 118 of 130 Chapter Seven –Exclusion Anyone who deviates in any perceived way from the norm of a population may become subject to coarse or subtle forms of social exclusion. This is usually the outcome of multiple deprivations that prevent individuals or groups from participating fully in the economic, social, and political life of the society in which they live. Social exclusion is evident in deprived communities. This chapter profiles the Pennine Lancashire districts in terms of deprivation health and crime. 7.1 Deprivation The following describes the extent, intensity and geography of economic exclusion within Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire districts. The Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 provides indicators of deprivation at local authority and lower super output area level (LSOA). The IMD 2007 replicates the methodology and where possible, the indicators used in the IMD 2004. The IMD ranks the 354 boroughs in England with 1st being the most deprived and 354th the least deprived. The IMD 2007 is made up of seven domains: Domain Income deprivation Employment deprivation Health deprivation and disability Education skills and training deprivation Barriers to housing and services Living environment deprivation Crime Weight 22.5% 22.5% 13.5% 13.5% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% Supplementary indices have also been produced, these include: Income Deprivation Affecting Children Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Six summaries of the IMD2007 are available at local authority level. These summaries show different aspects of deprivation. Since local authorities are large in both population and geographical terms, it is difficult to gauge or generalise too much about the extent of deprivation between areas. It is important to note that no single summary measure is favoured over another, i.e. there is no single best way of describing or comparing England’s 354 local authority districts. 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 Local concentration – This shows the severity of deprivation in each authority, measuring ‘hot spots’ of deprivation. Extent – This measures the proportion of a district’s population that lives in the most deprived LSOAs in England. Average scores Average ranks – Both these measures are ways of depicting the average level of deprivation across the entire local authority. Income scale – This measures the number of people experiencing income deprivation. Employment scale – This measures the number of people experiencing employment deprivation. A relatively useful way of representing local authority level deprivation as a whole is the average score measure, which present population-weighted IMD scores Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 119 of 130 Rank of Employment Scale Blackburn with Darwen 17 27 15 9 Burnley 21 31 27 5 Hyndburn 40 45 43 16 Pendle 44 51 40 29 Rossendale 92 85 104 124 Ribble Valley 302 296 309 332 Ranked where 1 is the most deprived and 354 is the least deprived. Rank of Income Scale Rank of Local Concentration Rank of Extent Rank of Average Rank Table 7 : Measures of deprivation for Pennine Lancashire districts Rank of Average Score 1. Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 borough level summary ranks for AGMA and Lancashire authorities. 60 113 130 118 228 349 73 113 135 134 200 323 Compared to the 2004 Index of Deprivation, on five of the six summary measures of deprivation, Blackburn with Darwen ranks as being relatively more deprived. In 2004, Blackburn with Darwen was the 5 th most deprived authority within Lancashire and AGMA on the ‘rank of average score’ summary. In 2007, using the same summary measure, the borough now ranks as the 4th most deprived. In addition to the summary ranks, scores are also available, table 6.1. Blackburn with Darwen has seen a drop in its rank on the Employment summary (has become less deprived). The Employment score shows the number of people in the borough classified as employment deprived. In the IMD 2004 12,662 people were classed as employment deprived. However, in the IMD 2007, 12,422 people were classified as employment deprived. The Income deprivation summary score highlights that in the IMD 2004, 29,810 people were classified as income deprived, whilst in the IMD 2007 this number had increased to 38,543. However, there have been changes to the indicators used to calculate these scores between the two years. These adjustments were necessary due to changes to the structure of benefits and tax credits. Table 7.1 : Deprivation scores 2007 for income and employment Measures of deprivation for Pennine Lancashire districts No. of people experiencing income deprivation % of population No. of people experiencing employment deprivation % of population Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Rossendale Ribble Valley 38543 19891 17244 19005 3635 10526 27.3 22.6 21.0 21.2 6.3 15.8 12422 8012 6898 9632 2159 4812 8.8 9.1 8.4 7.7 3.8 7.2 The Extent measure highlights that in 2004, 45% of the population of Blackburn with Darwen lived within the most deprived areas in England. In the IMD 2007, this had increased to 52%. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 120 of 130 Scores and Ranks for the six summary measures, for Blackburn with Darwen for IMD 2004 and IMD 2007. Table 7.2 : BwD deprivation measures 2004 & 2007 IMD 2004 IMD 2007 Average Score 32.28 35.83 Rank of Average Score 34 17 Average Rank 22273.4 23048.41 Rank of Average Rank 45 27 Extent 0.45 0.521124 Rank of Extent 25 15 Local Concentration 31794.31 32194.02 Rank of Local Concentration 25 9 Income Scale 29810 38543 Rank of Income Scale 71 60 Employment Scale 12661.75 12422.25 Rank of Employment Scale 66 73 Looking at the small area data for Lancashire only, Burnley now has the most deprived area within the 10 most deprived LSOAs (lower super output areas). Table 7.3 : The most deprived ten lower super output areas in Lancashire Ranking of all LSOAs in Lancashire District Ward the LSOA is located in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Burnley Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Burnley Hyndburn Preston Blackburn with Darwen Blackburn with Darwen Blackburn with Darwen West Lancashire Bank Hall Wensley Fold Trinity Daneshouse with Stoneyholme Central Ribbleton Shadsworth with Whitebirk Queens Park Mill Hill Digmoor IMD Rank out of 32,482 LSOAs in England 13 35 48 62 67 87 184 218 220 244 Change in ranking of the ‘rank of average score’ for local authorities in Lancashire and AGMA. (A positive number indicates an increase in relative deprivation a negative number indicates a decrease in relative deprivation). Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 121 of 130 Table 7.4 Pennine Lancashire district deprivation measures 2004 & 2007 Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Rossendale Ribble Valley IMD 2004 Rank of average score 34 37 58 71 92 288 IMD 2007 Rank of average score 17 21 40 44 92 302 Difference 17 16 18 27 0 -14 Another measure of deprivation constructed by the social disadvantage research centre at the University of Oxford as part of the Indices of deprivation 2007 is the Income deprivation affecting Children index (IDACI). This is given below Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 122 of 130 7.2 Income deprivation affecting children (IDAC) This index covers children aged 0–15 living in income deprived households. These are defined as: either households receiving IS/JSA-IB/PC or those not in receipt of these benefits but in receipt of WTC/CTC with an equivalised income below 60 per cent of the national median before housing costs The IDACI is the proportion of children 0–15 living in these households as a proportion of all children 0–15. Map of Deciles 2007 • Lancashire • Income Deprivation affecting Children Decile (note 6) Ranks in England (note 5) 1 Deprivation (note 1) 1 to 3,248 The most deprived 10% 2 3 4 5 6 to 10 3,249 6,497 9,746 12,994 16,242 to to to to to 6,496 9,745 12,993 16,241 32,482 The second most deprived The third most deprived The fourth most deprived The fifth most deprived The least deprived 10% 10% 10% 10% 50% Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment of LSOAs in England ^ of LSOAs in England ^ increasing deprivation ^ ^ Page 123 of 130 Area Code 00EX 30UD 30UG 30UJ 30UL 30UM Number of LSOAs 1 345 91 13.3 23.1 Percentage of LSOAs in decile number: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 << increasing deprivation << 14.5 11.3 9.3 7.8 9.0 5.5 7.5 7.2 20.9 12.1 5.5 4.4 5.5 3.3 7.7 4.4 60 53 57 40 44 18.3 13.2 10.5 15.0 9.4 19.3 11.7 18.9 10.5 2.3 13.6 755 940 7.0 9.9 4,459 32,482 14.4 10.0 Name Pennine Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Lancashire County Lancashire NUTS-2 North West England 2 10 14.5 13.2 11.4 13.3 9.4 10.5 2.5 15.9 15.0 7.5 10.5 5.0 4.5 15.1 10.5 10.0 18.2 3.3 9.4 8.8 7.5 2.3 6.7 1.9 8.8 10.0 11.4 6.7 1.9 3.5 22.5 11.4 10.0 13.2 7.0 42.5 9.1 9.1 10.5 8.5 9.3 10.2 10.0 7.9 8.7 8.1 8.5 11.1 9.8 11.1 9.9 12.8 10.9 14.0 12.6 10.9 10.0 9.5 10.0 8.8 10.0 8.4 10.0 8.5 10.0 8.2 10.0 8.7 10.0 10.3 10.0 12.4 10.0 7.3 Benefit Claimants In February 2010, there were a total of 19,940 benefit claimants in Blackburn with Darwen. This is equivalent to 22.7% of the population aged 16-64, this compares to 18.4% for the North West and 14.7% in England. After Blackburn with Darwen, of the six Pennine Lancashire districts, Burnley has the second highest number with 12,100 or 22.3% of the population aged 16-64. Hyndburn has the third highest with 20.5%, Ribble valley has the lowest percentage of claimants aged 16-64 with 8.8%. The out of work benefit count is an indicator of worklessness that combines several type of benefit related with worklessness, In February 2010 16,780 or 19.1% of the population aged 16-64 were claiming out of work benefits, this is higher than the regional (15.7%) and national rate (12.5%), as with benefit claimants Blackburn with Darwen (19.1%), Burnley (19.5%) and Hyndburn (17.6%) have high claimant rates, however in this case Burnley has the highest of the three authorities. 30.0 People aged 16-64 claiming benefit, February 2010 25.0 % 20.0 22.7 22.3 20.5 15.0 18.2 16.9 18.4 15.2 14.7 10.0 8.8 5.0 Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment England North West Lancashire Rossendale Ribble Valley Pendle Hyndburn Burnley Blackburn with Darwen 0.0 Page 124 of 130 Disability Living Allowance Bereaved Unknown Out-of-work benefits count 4,090 10,070 2,050 1,650 570 1,290 220 0 16,780 12,100 2,430 6,410 1,380 740 340 660 150 0 10,560 Hyndburn 10,480 2,080 5,510 1,090 730 300 630 140 0 8,980 Pendle 10,350 1,970 5,500 920 920 320 580 130 0 8,720 Ribble Valley Lancashire North West Carer 19,940 Burnley Lone Parent Incapacity Benefits Blackburn with Darwen Total Job Seekers Allowance Other Income Related Benefits Table 7.7: Working Age Client Group (persons), February 2010 3,150 590 1,710 150 240 90 270 90 0 2,550 113,520 23,280 57,190 11,050 8,660 3,460 8,060 1,820 0 94,980 820,310 194,830 392,880 88,640 58,680 23,680 51,330 10,260 0 700,040 4,951,230 1,304,990 2,132,880 600,860 356,300 164,720 321,360 70,120 0 4,203,450 Blackburn with Darwen 22.7 4.7 11.5 2.3 1.9 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 19.1 Burnley 22.3 4.5 11.8 2.5 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.3 .. 19.5 Hyndburn 20.5 4.1 10.8 2.1 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.3 .. 17.6 Pendle 18.2 3.5 9.7 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.2 .. 15.4 Ribble Valley 8.8 1.6 4.8 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 .. 7.1 Rossendale 16.9 3.5 8.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.2 0.3 .. 14.2 Lancashire 15.2 3.1 7.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.8 North West 18.4 4.4 8.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 15.7 England 14.7 3.9 6.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.5 England Percentage Source: Working age client group, Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) through Nomis Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 125 of 130 7.4 Disability rate The estimated proportion of people aged 16-64 in Blackburn with Darwen who were disabled based on DDA definition in 2009 was 4.6%, 15.3% were both work-limiting disabled based on the DDA definition. 3.4% were work-limiting disabled in 2009 Table 7.8: Disability amongst people aged 16-64, 2009 disabled 95% CI, +/workbased on (DDA) limiting the DDA disabled definition Blackburn with Darwen 4.6% 1.2 3.4% Burnley 4.8% .. .. 95% CI, +/(worklimiting) both work-limiting disabled and disabled based on DDA definition Confidence Interval 1.1 15.3% 2.1 .. 18.6% 6.8 Hyndburn 7.9% 4.5 5.0% 0.0 12.0% 5.4 Pendle 7.1% 3.9 6.1% 3.6 9.9% 4.6 Ribble Valley 8.2% .. 2.8% 0.0 9.6% 6.0 Rossendale 10.1% 5.4 2.2% 0.0 15.6% 6.5 Lancashire 5.8 1.0 3.8 0.8 11.5 1.4 North West 5.3 0.3 3.1 0.2 12.3 0.4 England 5.1 0.1 3.1 0.1 10.3 0.2 Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics (ONS) 12.0 Disability amongst people aged 16-64, 2009 North West =5.3, England = 5.1 10.0 8.0 8.2 7.9 7.1 6.0 4.0 10.1 4.6 4.8 Blackburn with Burnley 2.0 0.0 Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Darwen Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 126 of 130 7.5 Infant mortality Over the period 2003-2005 Blackburn with Darwen had an infant mortality rate of 6.4 deaths per 1,000 live births, the North West rate is 5.7 and the national rate is 5.1. Pendle has the highest infant mortality rate with 9.9 per 1,000 live births; Hyndburn has the second highest (7.7) and Burnley the third highest with 7.3. Ribble Valley meanwhile has an infant mortality rate of 5.3 and Rossendale the lowest with 3.4 per 1,000 live births. 7.6 Mortality All age All cause, circulatory disease and cancers Table 7.9: 2006-2008 All-age, mortality rate from all circulatory diseases, per 100,000 persons (European Standard Population) Directly LCL UCL Directly LCL UCL Standardised (95% (95% Standardised (95% (95% Rate level) level) Rate level) level) All-age, all cause mortality rate, All-age, mortality rate from all cancers, Directly Standardised Rate LCL (95% level) UCL (95% level) Blackburn with Darwen Burnley 749.9 726.3 773.6 257.0 243.3 270.8 198.4 185.6 211.2 723.0 695.7 750.3 229.5 214.5 244.5 195.1 180.2 210.0 Hyndburn 708.4 680.5 736.3 238.6 222.8 254.4 175.1 160.4 189.9 Pendle 618.6 593.6 643.7 200.5 186.8 214.3 178.4 164.3 192.6 Ribble Valley 526.1 499.8 552.4 172.5 158.0 186.9 148.5 133.6 163.4 Rossendale 685.1 654.5 715.7 221.9 204.7 239.1 184.2 167.6 200.9 Lancashire 631.6 624.9 638.3 202.9 199.2 206.5 179.6 175.8 183.3 North West 661.2 658.3 664.1 211.9 210.3 213.5 190.6 189.0 192.3 England 581.9 581.0 582.9 183.7 183.1 184.2 173.9 173.3 174.5 Source: NHS Information Centre for health and Social Care via ONS toolkit Figures for mortality for all causes and all ages, Circulatory disease and all cancers show that over the period 2006-08 in Blackburn with Darwen, the all age, all cause mortality rate was 749.9 deaths per 100,000, this is higher than both the regional and national averages. The mortality rate from circulatory disease was 257 and from cancers 198.4, again both are higher than the regional and national rates. Comparing Pennine Lancashire district mortality rates for the three causes shows Blackburn with Darwen to have the highest all age, all cause mortality and Ribble Valley (526.1) the lowest, indeed Blackburn with Darwen has the highest mortality rates of all Pennine Lancashire districts for all three causes. Ribble Valley in contrast has the lowest. Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 127 of 130 7.7 Crime In Blackburn with Darwen, the overall crime rate, using types of crime comparable with the British Crime Survey in 2009/10, was 48.7 crimes per 1,000 people. The crime rate has decreased over successive years, in 2007/08 the overall crime rate was 60.5 and in 2008/09 it was 55.3 Table 7.10: Overall crime (BCS comparator), per thousand persons Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Lancashire North West England 2007/08 60.5 73.8 53.4 47.8 19.1 44.2 2008/09 55.3 76.4 45.2 46.7 17.9 40.0 2009/10 48.7 58.4 39.8 39.4 15.9 31.8 46.7 58.4 54.0 43.6 53.6 49.7 .. .. .. Source: Recorded Crime, Home Office The highest crime rate in 2007/08 was for the district of Burnley with 73.8 per thousand persons, of the Pennine Lancashire districts Burnley has the highest crime rate for each of the three years and Ribble Valley has the lowest. The table below shows the types of crime prevalent in 2009/10 for the six Pennine Lancashire districts Criminal Damage Including Arson Burglary in a Dwelling Burglary Other than a Dwelling Theft of a Motor Vehicle Theft from a Motor Vehicle 414 709 74 109 2,923 434 770 246 869 1,630 1,101 1,253 276 678 55 36 34 4 10 682 510 523 137 334 363 148 224 49 91 420 324 395 71 187 24 29 20 4 18 55 32 40 12 11 1,972 1,430 1,389 392 846 580 246 210 73 208 1,065 398 607 166 294 240 177 162 52 134 711 294 517 132 269 118,611 749,791 37,367 258,500 35,749 256,449 15,626 111,051 43,363 318,656 North West England Common Assault 1,103 Harassment Including Penalty Notices for Disorder 88 Other Wounding Theft from the Person Count Blackburn with Darwen Burnley Hyndburn Pendle Ribble Valley Rossendale Wounding or Other Act Endangering Life 2,480 Violence Against the Person Robbery Table 7.11: Recorded crime, notifiable offences, 2009/10 101,862 3,739 44,463 23,320 22,743 8,757 8,180 810,831 21,851 354,017 184,658 195,311 73,409 81,036 Source: Notifiable offences record by the police, Home Office via ONS toolkit Table 7.11: Recorded crime, notifiable offences, 2009/10 Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment Page 128 of 130 Theft from a Motor Vehicle Burglary Other than a Dwelling 1 1 0 0 0 0 21 23 18 15 7 13 3 7 3 2 1 3 5 12 5 7 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 2 6 8 4 6 2 4 1 2 17 15 5 5 5 5 2 2 6 6 North West 15 1 6 3 3 1 England 16 0 7 4 4 1 Source: Notifiable offences record by the police, Home Office via ONS toolkit Theft of a Motor Vehicle Burglary in a Dwelling 1 0 0 0 0 0 Criminal Damage Including Arson 5 5 4 4 1 3 Theft from the Person Harassment Including Penalty Notices for Disorder 3 4 2 2 1 1 Robbery 8 8 6 6 2 5 Common Assault 1 1 0 0 0 0 Other Wounding Wounding or Other Act Endangering Life Violence Against the Person Per thousand persons Blackburn with Darwen 18 Burnley 19 Hyndburn 13 Pendle 14 Ribble Valley 5 Rossendale 10 As can be seen the most prevalent type of crime for Blackburn with Darwen and other Pennine Lancashire districts are: Violence against the person and Criminal damage including arson, Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley have the highest of any Pennine Lancashire district and Ribble valley the lowest. Over time 2005/06 to 2009/10 recorded crime levels decreased in Blackburn with Darwen, the largest decrease has been for robbery (-53.8%) and theft from the person (-53.6%), the lowest decrease has been for harassment including penalty notices for discharge. Common Assault however increased by 1% from 702 to 709 crimes. Blackburn with Darwen (Crimes 000s) Theft from a Motor Vehicle 0- Theft of a Motor Vehicle 0- Burglary in a Dw elling 0- Theft from the Person 0- 109 Robbery 0- 74 Common Assault 0- Harassment Inc PND 0- Other Wounding 0- Wounding or Other Act Endangering Life 0- Burglary Other than a Dw elling 0- Criminal Damage Inc Arson 0- Violence Against the Person 0- 869 246 1500 413 434 500 815 900 235 300 160 200 414 1103 88 709 800 532 600 1704 1900 120 770 200 1017 2923 1200 4616 2480 2006 Blackburn with Darwen Local Economic Assessment 1332 3306 4800 3500 2010 Page 129 of 130