Corporate Research briefing paper
October 2012 Job Seekers Allowance
Background
This report analyses the number of people who were in receipt of Job Seekers Allowance
(JSA) in October 2012.
The unemployment figures presented in this monitor are published by the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) each month. Claimant unemployment percentages are
calculated by dividing the number of claimants by the number of local authority area
residents aged 16-64. This claimant count measure was introduced in January 2003 and
replaced the previous measure based on workforce rates.
Unemployment is often measured by the uptake of Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) benefit.
This takes into account those who are unemployed and seeking employment but not
people who are unemployed and not seeking work.
NB: The population figures used to calculate residence-based proportions (rates) have changed
from working age (16-59f/64m) to aged 16-64 for both males and females. This change affects
rates for all dates. So rates for all dates will differ to those downloaded previously.
1. Summary
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The claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen (4.9%) is higher than the North West
rate of (4.4%) and the national rate of 3.8%.
Regionally and nationally the rate has remained unchanged for the fifth successive
month following a fall for two successive months prior to this.
The rate for Blackburn with Darwen has fallen over the last month. There are 131
fewer claimants this month compared to last year.
The annual change shows 39 fewer female claimants, and 92 fewer male
claimants. The overall number of JSA claimants decreased by less than 131, a 2.9%
decrease.
The claimant rate of 4.9% for Blackburn with Darwen equates to a total of 4,345
people, approximately 70.0% of whom are male.
The male claimant rate of 6.7% is higher than that of females (3.1%).
In October 2012, 1,200 people started claiming JSA, and 1,155 stopped, i.e. more
people joined the claimant count than left, 8.7% more people joined and 4.5%
fewer left the claimant count compared to October 2012. Compared to the
previous month on-flows decreased by 4% and off-flows decreased by 3.7%.
The majority of claimants over a half (55.5%) are between the ages of 25-49.
Claimants aged 25-49 have increased by 80 or 3.4% over the year, claimants aged
50+ increased by 12.1%. 18-24 year olds claimants decreased by 9.8% during the
same period.
Approximately a quarter of claimants (25%) have been claiming for over 12 months
and are classed as ‘long term unemployed’.
Long term claimants have more than doubled, increasing to 1,085 from 495 a year
ago (119% increase). There has been no change in the number of Long term
claimants over the last month.
Seven wards have experienced an increase and fourteen a decrease in claimants
since last year.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
2 Headline claimant rates
In October 2012, 4.9% of the working age population in Blackburn with Darwen were
claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), this is higher than the regional rate of 4.4% and the
national rate of 3.8%. The national and regional rates have remained unchanged for the
last 3 months, in contrast the rate in Blackburn with Darwen has been decreased for the
third consecutive month.
Table 1: Headline Claimant rate in Blackburn with Darwen September 2012.
Claimant rates by gender:
Total Claimants Male Claimants Female claimants
Area
N
Rate
N
Rate
N
Rate
Blackburn with Darwen
4,345
4.9%
2,988
6.7%
1,357
3.1%
North West
196,433
4.4% 130,832 5.8%
65,601
2.9%
Great Britain
1,483,957 3.8% 959,770
4.9%
524,184
2.7%
Source: Claimant Count, Nomis
Figure 1 illustrates current JSA claimant rates by gender for October 2012.
Figure 2: Claimant Rate trends
Figure 1: JSA Claimant Rate
7
6
5
6
Rate as a proportion of the 16-64 population
8
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
6.7
Rate: % of 16-64 population
5
4
5.8
4.9
%4
4.9
% 3
4.4
3.8
3
2
3.1 2.9
2.7
2
1
1
Blackburn with Darwen
North West
Great Britain
Male
Female
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
All People
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
0
0
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
The rate equates to a total of 4,345 people claiming JSA in the borough, this being made
up of 2,988 males and 1,357 females. Approximately seven out of ten claimants are male.
The claimant rate of 6.7% for males is higher than the claimant rate for females (3.1%).
3. On and off Flows
In October 2012, 1,200 people started claiming JSA, and 1,155 stopped, i.e. more people
joined the claimant count than left, 8.7% more people joined and 4.5% fewer left the
claimant count compared to October 2012. Compared to the previous month on-flows
decreased by 4% and off-flows decreased by 3.7%.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Figure 3: On-flows and Off-flows to Claimant Count
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
4. Change over time
The October 2012 claimant rate shows no difference from the number registered last year,
but shows a 2.9% monthly decrease.
Table 2: Monthly and annual change in claimant rates
Claimant rates by gender:
Claimants September 2012 Monthly change
Area
N
Rate
+/+/- %
Male
2,988
6.7
-39
-1.3%
Female
1,357
3.1
-92
-6.3%
Total
4,345
4.9
-131
-2.9%
Source: Jobcentre Plus, Nomis
Annual change
+/+/- %
-5
-0.2%
5
0.4%
-
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The percentage change over the previous month shows a decrease for all groups.
Male claimants decreased by 1.3% and females 6.3%. The overall decrease in
claimants over the month is -2.9%.
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The annual change shows an increase for female claimants. There are 5 more
female claimants compared to last year, an increase of less than 1%. Male
claimants decreased by a similar amount and show a 0.2% decrease.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below trends claimant rate by gender
The claimant rate in October 2012 within the borough has changed little from that
recorded 12 months ago, Claimant levels continue to high for the borough. During the last
12 months the number of claimants within the borough has been above the 4, 000 mark.
The monthly figures show 131 fewer claimants, 70% of the monthly decrease is accounted
for by female claimants.
The graph below shows claimant count figures by gender indexed to January 2006, it can
be seen that female claimant count rate rose sharply after February 2008 and has
increased at a faster rate than that for males and continues to be at a higher level than
for males. Female claimants rates over the last couple of months show a decreasing trend.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
5. Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants and claims
The majority of claimants over a half (55.5%) are between the ages of 25-49. Claimants
aged 25-49 have increased by 3.4% over the year, the largest percentage increase in
claimants is for those aged 50+ increasing by 12.1% or 65 since October 2011. Claimants
aged 18-24 decreased by 145 or 9.8% over the same period.
Fig 3: JSA Claimants by age
Fig 4. JSA Claimants by duration
Table 3: Age and duration of job seekers allowance claimants in Blackburn with Darwen
October 2012.
Age of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
Aged 18-24
1,330
30.6%
-145
-9.8%
Aged 25-49
2,410
55.5%
80
3.4%
Aged 50+
600
13.8%
65
12.1%
Duration of Blackburn with Darwen JSA Claimants
Claimants
Duration
N
%
Up to 6 months
2,620
60.4%
Over 6 months and up to 12 months
635
14.6%
Over 12 months
1,085
25.0%
+/-245
-345
590
Annual change
+/- %
-8.6%
-35.2%
119.2%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Three out of five claimants have been receiving the benefit for 6 months or less. However,
a quarter, (1,085) have been claiming for over 12 months and are classed as ‘long term
unemployed’.
The number of claimants claiming for 6 months or less has decreased by 8.6% over the
year, while those claiming for 6-12 months decreased by more than a third. Those claiming
for over 12 months increased by 590, from 495 to 1,085, an increase of over a 100%. For the
sixth consecutive month we are seeing the number of claimants claiming for 12+ months
exceeding those who have been claiming for between 6-12 months.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
The graph below shows claimants by age and by duration, indexed to January
2006, Long term claimants show a sharp increase over the last 12 months, 18-24
year old claimants show a positive trend with decreases over the last.
Figure 5: Claimants by age (Jan06=100)
Figure 6: Claimants by duration (Jan06=100)
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
6. Long term claimants (over 12 months)
People claiming JSA for 12 months or more are classed as long term unemployed. There
are currently 1,085 long term claimants in Blackburn with Darwen (a quarter of all
claimants), there is no change in the number of claimants from the previous month’s
figures. Compared to last year there are 590 more long term claimants. Those claiming for
12 months or more have doubled increasing by over 119% since October 2011.
The graph below shows long term claimants by age.
There were 5 long terms claimants aged 18-24 in October 2011, these have now increased
to 250 in October 2012, an increase of 235 over the year. Long term claimants aged 25-49
have increased by two-thirds (increasing from 375 to 625) and long term claimants aged
50+ have doubled from 105 to 210.
Nearly 60% of all long term claimants are aged 25-49, just less than a quarter (23%)are
aged 18-24 and 19% are aged 50+. The proportion of long term claimants aged 18-24
have increased from 13% in March 2012 to 14.4% in April to 15.3% in May, increasing further
to 16.3% in June 2012 and to 18.6% in July 2012. 18-24 year old made up a fifth of all long
term claimants in August 2012, they now account for 23% of all long term claimants in
October 2012.
The general trend is that long term claimants (12+ months) for each age group are
increasing with 25-49 year olds experiencing the sharpest and most sustained increase.
The trend now is seen for the other age groups with those aged 18-24 experiencing a
sharp increase over the last 12 months or so. The proportion of long term claimants aged
18-24 now exceed long term claimants aged 50+.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
7. Youth unemployment (aged 18-24)
There are currently 1,330 young claimants aged 18-24 in Blackburn with Darwen (31% of all
claimants). The JSA claimant rate for 18-24 year olds (9.6%) is historically higher than the
regional (8.3%) and national average (7.2%). All have decreased over the last month.
Claimants aged 18-24 show an annual decrease of 9.8% and a monthly decrease of 5.0%.
The graphs below show 18-24 year old claimants by duration, the same data is also
indexed to January 2006. The graphs show those claiming for up to 12 months decreasing,
while those claiming 12+ months have increased.
The indexed data shows 18-24 year old claimants claiming for 6-12 months and 12+
months grew at a faster rate than those claiming for less than 6 months.
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Seventy per cent of claimants aged 18-24 were claiming for six months or less
and 1 in 10 between 6-12 months.
18-24 year olds claiming for six months or less decreased by over a fifth or 275
over the year and by 2.6% or 25 over the month. Those claiming for 6-12 months
also decreased, this group shows an annual decrease of over 40% and a
monthly decrease of 28%.
Those claiming for 12+ months increased by 235 from 15 to 250 over the year,
the number claiming for this duration increase by 1600%.
Table 4: 18-24 year old claimant by duration in Blackburn with Darwen
October 2012.
Duration of blackburn with Darwen JSA claimants
Claimants
Annual change
Age
N
%
+/+/- %
< 6 months
940
70.7%
-275
-22.6%
6-12 months
140
10.5%
-105
-42.9%
12+ months
250
18.8%
235
1566.7%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
8. Claimants aged 50+
Those aged 50+ make up approximately 14% of all JSA claimants. A half of all 50+
claimants (50.0%) are aged 50-54, two fifths are aged 55-59. In total these two sub-groups
make up 91.7% of all the 50+ claimants. A small minority (8.3%) are aged 60 or over.
Table 5: JSA Claimants aged 50+
Claimants
Age
N
%
Annual change
+/+/- %
50-54
300
50.0%
-
-
55-59
60 or over
250
50
41.7%
8.3%
55
10
28.2%
25.0%
Figures rounded up or down
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
Claimants aged 55-59 increased by 28.4%. Those aged over 60 increased by 10, an
increase of 25% on last year. 50+ claimants overall increased by 12.1% over the year but
decreased by 4.1% over the month.
(NB, the percentage change for 60+ is based on small numbers).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
9. Job seekers allowance claimant rates across Blackburn with Darwen wards.
Rate
Claimants
Annual
Change
Monthly
change
Audley
6.8
341
-1.2%
-0.3%
Bastwell
6.2
285
0.3%
1.8%
Beardwood with Lammack
1.7
62
-6.8%
-11.3%
Corporation Park
5.1
203
-9.7%
-3.4%
Earcroft
4.3
135
12.9%
-3.0%
East Rural
1.0
12
-33.3%
-33.3%
Ewood
6.0
247
-1.2%
-0.8%
Fernhurst
1.7
60
-3.0%
8.3%
Higher Croft
5.3
261
-9.1%
-12.3%
Little Harwood
5.0
194
-7.8%
-8.2%
Livesey with Pleasington
1.7
82
-7.2%
-22.0%
Marsh House
3.4
128
-5.8%
0.8%
Meadowhead
4.3
170
14.7%
1.2%
Mill Hill
6.0
285
15.9%
-0.4%
North Turton with Tockholes
1.2
32
0.0%
0.0%
Queen's Park
6.2
262
9.5%
-3.1%
Roe Lee
3.1
96
-13.8%
-2.1%
Shadsworth with Whitebirk
9.5
469
-8.9%
-10.0%
Shear Brow
5.0
214
-6.2%
-0.5%
Sudell
7.4
290
-2.3%
2.1%
Sunnyhurst
3.6
169
23.1%
-2.4%
Wensley Fold
8.9
427
9.5%
-0.5%
Whitehall
2.2
52
0.0%
11.5%
Total
4.9
4,476
0.0%
-2.9%
October 2012
Source: Claimant counts, www.nomisweb.co.uk
Updated: Monthly
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Three wards with the highest claimant rates are Shadsworth with Whitebirk (9.5%),
Wensley Fold (8.9%), and Sudell (7.4%).
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In total, 7 wards have experienced an increase in claimants since last year. The
largest percentage increase has been in Sunnyhurst where claimants have
increased by a quarter.
 Fourteen wards have experienced a decrease in the number of claimants over
the last year. The largest percentage decrease has been in East Rural (33%).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).
Further information
This briefing was prepared by: Saeed Patel
Research and Intelligence Officer
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
3rd Floor Old Town Hall
saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk
01254 58(5106)
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller Office of Public Sector Information (OPSI).