Caminìa
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
1
Caminìa, the basic structure
 mathematical programming model
 spatial
 partial equilibrium
 one homogeneous commodity: wheat
 exogenous exchange rates
 perfect competition prevails both on
domestic and international markets
 19 countries/regions
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
2
Caminìa, the basic structure
 “base” model time reference: 1994
 domestic markets represented through
linear demand, supply and stock
release functions
 producer prices are farm gate prices
 consumer prices are net prices to
consumer
 domestic transportation and handling
costs
 international transportation and
handling costs
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
3
Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)
 EU compensatory payments: fully
decoupled
 US deficiency payments: fully decoupled
 EU set aside % as its “rotational
equivalent”
 minimum guaranteed prices in the EU
and the US
 EU “export restitutions” endogenously
determined
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
4
Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)
 US EEP export subsidies assumed to be
paid in cash and to be unconstrained
 EU “variable levies” endogenously
determined
 Japan’s JFA represented as an import
quota
 NAFTA
 bilateral agreements
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
5
Caminìa, solver and calibration
 Written in GAMS, solved recursively to
overcome the difficulties due to the high
non-linearity of the constraints
 Average percent difference, in absolute
values, between observed and “predicted”
values is equal to 2.6% for quantities
produced and 3.1% for quantities
consumed
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
6
Caminìa, the simulations

Base 2001, 2002 and 2005
 expected changes in demand
(population, per capita income)
 expected changes in supply
(yields)
 FAIR Act
 implementation of 1992 Cap reform
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
7
Caminìa, the simulations
1994 GATT Agreement on agriculture:
 domestic support commitments: irrelevant
 tariff levels: country schedules, unless





applied tariffs were lower than binding
ones
EU tariff protection: variable levy
Japan import quota: adjusted
TRQs
export competition commitments
individually explicitly modeled
US export subsidies: maximizing exports
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
8
Caminìa, the simulations

Agenda 2000
 intervention price
1994
2001
2002 & 2005
119.19
110.25
101.31
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
(-7.5%)
(- 15%)
9
Caminìa: where does it come from? Where is it now?
Where is it going?

Where does Caminia come from?
- Anania and McCalla, AJAE, 1991
- Anania, Bohman and Carter, AJAE, 1992
- Solagral, 1998

Where is it now?
Anania, 2001

Where is it going?
more runs of current version (EU enlargement,
$/Euro exchange rate sensitivity
multi-product: cereals, meats and dairy
Giovanni Anania, ERS/USDA, Washington D.C., November 15-16 2001
10