A Chemical Resistant Invader: Greenhouse Whitefly in Strawberries Colin A. Carter, James A. Chalfant, Rachael E. Goodhue, & Greg McKee University of California-Davis PREISM Workshop, Aug. 2004 Objectives 1. Measure impact of greenhouse whitefly on strawberry yields (damage calculation). 2. Incorporate environmental regulations regarding chemical use. 3. Account for commodity price cycle. 4. Develop a simple action threshold model to identify optimal chemical treatment dates. 5. Evaluate how control based on private incentives contributes to regional management of pest. Policy Relevance 1. Policymakers need to understand how producers will act to mitigate their losses not just pest biology 2. Key Players: EPA CA Dept. of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) CA Strawberry Commission & Industry Calif. Dept. of Food and Agriculture California Strawberries • Coastal production • California accounts for over 80% of U.S. production • Florida accounts for around 12% Santa Cruz (18%) Monterey (33%) San Luis Obispo (5%) Ventura (27%) Santa Barbara (10%) Orange (6%) Fresh Strawberry Price $/lb 2.5 Price Cycle: California Fresh Strawberries (1988-2002) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Week 30 35 40 45 50 Traditional Season • Fall planting (90% of acreage) – Planted late Sept. (Oxnard) – Oct. (Watsonville) – Harvested • December – June in Oxnard area • March – October in Watsonville area • Summer planting (10% of acreage) – Planted in July (Oxnard) & August (Watsonville) – Harvested • September – December in Oxnard area • October – May in the Watsonville area Calif. Industry Has Closed the Southern Hemisphere Window • CA Strawberries are now available essentially year-round: no more from Australia/NZ. • Did growers inadvertently also provide a host for whiteflies year-round? • Southern Calif: filled gap in season for whitefly. • Northern Calif: provided convenient, better host late in year. Greenhouse Whitefly: Resident Invader • Common pest along CA coast • Emerged in strawberries in 1999-2000 – Strawberries not previously a host – Invaded primarily Oxnard and Watsonville areas – Heavy infestation in 2002 • Possible explanations for invasion: – Increased summer acreage – Expansion of total acreage – Urban hosts closer to strawberry fields – Nursery stock (Oxnard) Economic Impact of Whitefly Feeds on the sap of strawberry plant – Reduce total yield up to 25% – Reduce marketable yield – Decrease nutritional content (less sugar, citric acid) – Helps spread plant viruses Greenhouse Whitefly Management – Control is complicated • Difficult to kill (resistant to traditional chemicals) • Feeds on underside of leaf – Few chemical products registered for control • Admire (used at planting): not registered • Esteem: not registered • Other chems. provide limited control of adults – Eliminating plant hosts is another option • Crop clean-up • Reducing overlap of strawberry plantings • Break continuous whitefly cycle by eliminating plant hosts Source: Dr. Tom Perring, UCR Source: Dr. Nick Toscano, UCR - 1999 Economic issues • Price cycle creates economic incentive to plant “host” crops • Continuous “host” plants allows year-round population development – Summer plantings – Second year plantings – Late harvest for processing – Alternative hosts (Oxnard) • Lack of grower coordination in whitefly management • Environmental regulations of chemical control Esteem (pyriproxyfen) • Esteem provides effective post-plant whitefly control – Application costs approx. $40/acre – Effective for up to nine weeks – Sometimes used in conjunction with Admire (Imidacloprid) – Emergency registration for 2004 – Restricted to two applications per acre per year Damage Calculation 4000 y = -396.9Ln(x) + 5593.7 R2 = 0.46 Yield (g / plant) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 WF Days (Jan 29 - Jun 5) 4500 5000 5500 6000 Marketable Value of Treated and Untreated Fall Planting: Watsonville 00 0 /2 00 12 /2 3 12 /2 / 20 00 0 /2 00 0 11 /1 1 /2 /2 00 20 9/ 9/ 00 0 /2 8/ 19 00 0 /2 00 7/ 29 20 7/ 8/ 00 0 /2 6/ 17 00 0 /2 00 5/ 27 20 5/ 6/ 00 0 /2 00 0 4/ 15 /2 00 3/ 25 20 3/ 4/ 00 0 /2 2/ 12 00 0 /2 1/ 22 1/ 1/ 20 00 Optimal sprays: end of Apr. & mid Aug. 9/ 30 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10 /2 1 '000 $/ac 00 0 Value of Benchmark Yield per acre Incremental Value of 2 sprays Value of 2 spray yield Comments on Watsonville Case • WF population peaks in March – April • Late April Esteem spray may not fully control Whitefly population – Likely to promote larger overall population – Watsonville monoculture • August spray reduces carryover into fall plants, transplanted in Oct– Nov Marketable Value of Treated and Untreated Fall Planting, Oxnard CA Value of Benchmark Yield per acre Incremental value of 2 sprays Value of 2 spray yield 00 0 /23 /2 00 0 12 /2/ 2 00 0 12 11 /11 /2 00 0 /2 /21 10 9/3 0/ 2 00 0 00 0 9/9 /2 00 0 9/ 2 8/1 9/ 2 00 0 00 0 7/2 7/8 /2 00 0 7/ 2 6/1 7/ 2 00 0 00 0 5/2 5/6 /2 00 0 5/ 2 4/1 5/ 2 00 0 00 0 3/2 3/4 /2 2/1 2/ 2 00 0 Optimal sprays: early Jan & mid April 00 0 2/ 2 1/2 1/1 /2 00 0 '000 $/ac 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 - Comments on Oxnard Model • WF population peaks in late March – April • Spray in March or April will control the historical spike in WF population • If only fall plantings, entire harvest season could be protected – Increasing summer acreage makes this unlikely – Multiple hosts makes reinfestation likely Other Issues 1. Dynamic considerations may matter less when total applications limited. Also, reinfestations from neighboring crops breaks the link between your actions now & whitefly population later. 2. Does market power make a shipper less concerned (risk preferences and also more inelastic demand). 3. Optimization errors by producers. Conclusion • If growers focus on the value of strawberries instead of the number of whiteflies, this delays the first spray of Esteem until April & may not result in total whitefly control in the Watsonville area. • Significance: individual grower spray decisions may not completely control the greenhouse whitefly, and the severity of the invasion could worsen.