AAE 773 Discussion Guide: Load Forecasting
Due: Wednesday, April 27th by 10pm (submit via email)
Assigned Readings:
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Dubner, Stephen. (January 14, 2016). How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future.
Freakonomics Radio. [Podcast]
St. John, Jeff. (April 15, 2015). Why EIA’s Energy Outlook Misses the Real Value of
Renewable Energy. Greentech Media.
Gimon, E. & Aggarwal, S. (June 1, 2015). Driving Blind: The Worst Examples of
Outdated Data Skewing Renewable Energy Projections. Greentech Media.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (April 2015). Annual Energy Outlook 2015.
DOE/EIA-0383(2015). [Skim body of report, no need to read appendices]
Urban, B. et al. (June 2014). Energy Consumption of Consumer Electronics in U.S.
Homes in 2013. Prepared by Fraunhofer USA. [Executive summary & Appendix A]
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (December 2013). Analysis and Representation
of Miscellaneous Electric Loads in NEMS. Prepared by Navigant Consulting and SAIC.
[Executive Summary]
Mendyk, A. (2015). Use Per Customer Trends. Prepared for 2015 Edison Electric
Institute Forecasting Meeting, San Diego, CA. [Available on AAE server]
Discussion Questions:
1. Which of the 10 commandments for superforecasters (from the Freakonomics podcast)
seem most difficult to master?
2. Comment on this quote from the “Driving Blind” GTM article:
“Failure to account for cost and capability improvements for new technologies often
follows a typical sequence. First, a drawn-out stakeholder consultation and study process
results in cost figure time-lags. Second, a desire to lend credibility by using
“conservative” assumptions and the need for consensus further encourage pessimistic
estimates of functionality, cost and deployment rates. The real kicker comes when
exponential increases in deployment (as have happened for solar and wind generation)
far outpace predictions.”
3. List several reasons from the Greentech Media articles that the EIA’s forecasts for
renewable energy are repeatedly too low. Can you think of any others?
4. Which of the EIA’s AEO forecasts did you find the most surprising? Why?
5. In what ways do econometric methods for forecasting and program evaluation
fundamentally differ?
6. In trying to forecast system load for an electric utility, what types of variables would you
consider for inclusion in your regression model?
7. If accurate forecasts are difficult (if not impossible) to generate, what is the point of
forecasting?
8. What concepts from the readings are unclear? What concepts would you like to discuss in
class?
9. List one question for the seminar speaker.