OECD Universities’ Joint Economics Congress
Paris, 6-8 July 2011
New Directions in Welfare II
“Measuring Patterns of Local Human and
Sustainable Development”
Mario Biggeri and Vincenzo Mauro
Department of Economics, University of Florence
Contact vincenzo.mauro@unifi.it
WORK IN PROGRESS! COMMENTS WELCOME.
- Theoretical approach to analyse local development
from a human sustainable development angle
- A method to examine human development from a
multidimensional and time perspective
- Preliminary results of the research
Starting point
“The separation of the ‘economic’ from the ‘social’
discourse is inherent in the leader–follower hierarchy
model of the orthodox policy recommendations. … In
such circumstances, Social Funds and education and
health ministries are left to take care of the consequences
of macroeconomic policy mistakes – essentially, to pick
up the pieces.” (Mehrotra and Delamonica, 2007, p. 14).
Theoretical approaches to development and to local
development
Indeed, most of the theoretical frameworks analyse
development at local level focussing separately on the
economic or social aspects, rather than jointly.
We conceptually underline the need to integrate
environmental and social-sector policies with economic
ones at local level.
The two synergies
The idea is based on the existence of synergies in policy
implementation between social and economic outcomes
(see for instance Mehrotra and Delamonica 2007, and
Mehrotra and Biggeri, 2007). (The idea was conceived
initially by Mehrotra and Jolly, 1997 and Taylor et al,
1997)
The two synergies (both at individual level)
The first synergy is between interventions within basic
social services (BSS). Interventions in health, nutrition,
water and sanitation, environment, fertility control and
education complement each other. This increases the
impact of any one from investments in any other.
The second synergy is between economic opportunities
(e.g. income increase) and social and education
opportunities
HSD at local level
In this work we are especially interested in the second
synergy. We therefore consider:
- The social-environmental dimension SD
(This should be the result at aggregate local level of
different components of the first synergy above mentioned)
- The economic dimension ED.
This should be the results at aggregate level of different
components
which
determine
the
economic
opportunity/efficiency at local level
Interpretative framework
Possible routes of a unit (i.e. a local cluster over time)
toward Human Sustainable Development HSD
Possible routes of a unit (i.e. a local cluster over time)
toward Human Sustainable Development HSD
Possible routes of a unit (i.e. a local cluster over time)
toward efficiency
Idea: Represent the units
on the figure below, and try to observe their shift over time
Need for two indexes or a bi-dimensional index
that can describe both situations
Many approaches are possible to describe both social and
economic components: most of them have to face a step
where the variables available are aggregated into a
(possibly single) value.
Possible approach: use a function (e.g. a distance from an
“optimal” point) to reduce the dimensionality
Unit A
(economic)
Unit A
(social)
Possible approach: use a function (e.g. a distance from an
“optimal” point) to reduce the dimensionality
Unit B
(social)
Unit B (economic)
Why a distance from a “best” unit?
Because it underlines the effect of the synergy
A
B
Why a distance from a “best” unit?
Because it underlines the effect of the synergy
Linear: perfect substitutability
Why a distance from a “best” unit?
Because it allows to overcome the problem of the implicit weighting
depending on the variability of the distribution of every single
dimension
A
B
Finally, units are represented in the initial framework
…and a single unit is observable over time.
1998
2006
2010
2002
Characteristics of analysis
• Dynamic: medium-term analysis with 4-years
intervals
• Multidimensional: economic and social dimensions
with 5 subdimensions each
Medium-term analysis
•
•
•
•
1998
2002
2006
2010 (or most recent data)
4-years intervals are needed to observe significant
movements on Local Human Development
trajectories
Multidimensional analysis
Economic Dimension
Social Dimension
(n° indicators)
(n° indicators)
Wealth (4)
Environment (2)
Employment (3)
Access to health services (3)
Credit (4)
Education (3)
Entrepreneuship (3)
Participation and social capital (6)
Investments and innovation (3)
Equal opportunities (8)
Main difficulties in data collection
• Missing data in panel series
• Some indicators changed over time
• Low territorial disaggregation (province level)
Mc
Tuscany is divided
into 10 provinces
Lu Pt Po
Fi
Pi
Approx. 3.7M
inhabitants
Si
Li
Gr
Ar
Economic Dimension
Some Results (1)
Social Dimension
Economic Dimension
Some Results (2)
Social Dimension
Interpretation of preliminary results
• Most units follow route quite close to a synergic
pattern
• Similar trajectory 1998-2002 except for Livorno and
Massa-Carrara (decline ED)
• Impressive impact of recent financial crisis: dramatic
decline in SD in all provinces
• ED seems to diminish sensitively its growth rate
Thank you !
(Comments/questions?)