Program Planning for
Maximum Impact
Spring Training Workshop
April 9, 2013
Lena Etuk, Social Demographer
The Nature of Program Planning
Varying purposes
• Create new programming
• Adjust current programming
• End old programming
Different directions
• Inputs-focused
• Outcomes-focused
Program Planning Cycle
1. Analyze the
situation: Needs
Assessment
7. Evaluate
2. Set goal to
address need
3. Design
program to
meet goal
6. Implement
5. Plan program
details
4. Take stock of
& gather
resources
Needs Assessment
Phase I
Pre-Assessment
Identify needs
Phase II
Assessment
(optional)
Further identify needs
Phase III
PostAssessment
Prioritize
Make decisions
Allocate resources
Implement
Focus Today: PHASE I of NA
1. Get organized
2. Form a Needs Assessment Committee (NAC)
3. Find out what is already known or available from existing
data sources about:
•
•
•
•
•
What is
What should be
Causes of gap
Consequences of gap
Potential solutions for gap
4. Synthesize the data and decide to move to Phase II or Phase
III
Phase I Needs Assessment Case Study
1. Issue of concern: rising Latino population, and not sure if
RCE is/I am meeting their needs generally or needs for
decision-making data
• What can I do to help meet needs of Latino population?
• What can I do to better inform decision makers about Latino population?
2. Review available statistics about the current Latino situation
and the ideal situation
3. Make sense of the statistics
4. Identify causes and consequences of gaps
5. Determine if more data are needed
An approach to gathering existing statistics for needs
assessment
1. Explore overall
trends
Latinos over time
and space
2. Explore subtrends
3. Identify
related trends
4. Explore
related trends
5. Make sense of
trends
Demographic
Talk to experts
Integration
Tell the story
Social
Latino advocacy
groups
Immigrant
policies
Identify gaps
Review literature
Political
representation
Economic
Economics
Education
When you explore statistics look out for…
• Deviations from a benchmark
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
State
Nation
Similar communities
Target level
Larger geography or group of people
Particular time point
Representation in population
• Information about methods
• Discrepancies across sources
Keep a set of questions in mind
Forefront of mind
• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?
• What should be?
• Where are the assets among this population?
• What’s surprising?
• How do surprising findings challenge assumptions?
• What further questions are we asking ourselves?
Back of the mind
• Causes of gap?
• Consequences of gap?
• Potential solutions for gap?
With Rural Communities Explorer
1. EXPLORE OVERALL TRENDS
% of Population Latino
% Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS)
0.0% - 5.6%
5.7% - 11.6%
11.7% - 21.2%
21.2% - 36.1%
36.2% - 71.1%
% Latino by Census Tract
(2007-2011 ACS) - WV metro zoom-in
0.0% - 5.6%
5.7% - 11.6%
11.7% - 21.2%
21.2% - 36.1%
36.2% - 71.1%
Counties with highest Latino populations (2007-11 ACS)
• Malheur (31%); ~10,000
• Morrow (31%); ~3,000
• Hood River (29%); ~6,000
• Marion (24%); ~74,000
2. EXPLORE SUB-TRENDS
Sub-trends
• Compare Latinos to state at large with data from US Census
Bureau
• Demographic variables
• Social variables
• Economic variables
Demographic Variables
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•
•
•
•
•
Younger median age
More families with kids
Larger household and family sizes
Higher fertility rate
Less residential stability
Mostly engage in regionalized migration, but also experience
farther within-state migration
Malheur continues to be a Destination County
Hood River County exodus, but stay close
Social Variables
• Higher percentage of Latinos are enrolled in K-8, and lower
percentage is enrolled in college or graduate school
• Latinos = 19% of K-8; Latinos = 8% of higher ed enrollees
• Lower educational attainment among adults
2010 Oregon Latino Population
Pyramid
80 to 85
70 to 74
60 to 64
50 to 54
Females
40 to 44
Males
30 to 34
20 to 24
10 to 14
0 to 4
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
Socio-economic Variables
• Higher labor force participation
• Higher employment rate
• Top occupations
1.
2.
Service
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
• Top industries
1.
2.
3.
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food service
Manufacturing
Socio-economic Variables
• More likely to earn income from wages and salaries
• Lower full-time year-round median earnings
• greater disparity among men, than women
• Higher poverty rate
• Higher SNAP recipient rate (23%), but equitably represented
among recipients (12%)
3. IDENTIFY RELATED TRENDS
Identify Related Trends/Missing Information
• Consult with experts (NAC)
• Refer to practitioner reports
• CAUSA
• PEW Hispanic Center
• Review literature
• Integration/Assimilation, Education, Political representation, Economics
• Griffin, JD, & Newman, B. 2007. The Unequal Representation of Latinos and
Whites. The Journal of Politics, 69(4):1032-1046.
• Lee, Y. & Aytac, IA. 1998. Intergenerational Financial Support among Whites,
African Americans, and Latinos. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(2):426-441
• Kalogrides, D. 2009. Generational Status and Academic Achievement among
Latino High School Students: Evaluating the Segmented Assimilation Theory.
Sociological Perspectives 52(2): 159-183
Important Related Trends
•
•
•
•
•
Immigrant policies
Integration/Assimilation
Education
Economics
Political representation
4. EXPLORE RELATED TRENDS
Related Trends
• Integration/Assimilation
• Foreign-born vs. US-born
• Immigrant policies
• Policy impacts
• Political representation
• Economics
• Representation of Latinos in
public office
• Circulation of $s
• Education
• School enrollment
Foreign-born vs. US-born
• Foreign-born Latinos = 38% of OR Latinos (and declining)
• Foreign-born:
•
•
•
•
•
20 years older (median age) than US-born Latinos
Less educated
Earn $10,000 less
Lower unemployment
More likely to work construction and ag. industries, and service
occupations
Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
Foreign-born vs. US-born
• In 2010, US-born Latinos come close to non-Latino Whites in
the % with some college
• In 2007, US-born Latinos came close to non-Latino Whites in
median household income, but from 2007 to 2010 that grew to
a $12,000 difference
• While median income of whites declined by $2,000 from 2007 to 2010,
the median income of US-born Latinos declined by $10,000
Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2007 & 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
Policy impacts
• SB 1080 (required proof of legal US residence to obtain OR
driver’s license)
• Social burdens placed on families of undocumented
• Fear of deportation
• Labor shortages will be concentrated in certain industries (crop
production, ag support, textile mills, and food production)
(Assessment of the socio-economic impacts of SB 1080 on Immigrant groups. 2011.
ODOT. SR 500-270.)
• HB 2787 - Tuition Equity Bill (in-state tuition for children of
undocumented)
• Proposed SB 833 (4-yr driver’s license w/o proof of legal
residence)
Latinos in public office
% of County Officials Latino
~2% of elected offices held by Latinos (2012)
Source: Northwest News Network
Economics
• $22 billion transferred from US to Latin American countries in
2012 as private remittances (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
• $13.5 billion transferred from US to Mexico in 2012
• Economic impact on Oregon
• $7 billion purchasing power in 2009 (Selig Center, 2009)
• Rate of growth among Latino entrepreneurs 4x higher than total business
growth (1997 & 2007 US Census Survey of Business Owners)
Education
% of all enrolled students
Percentage of Oregon K-12 Students Latino
Source: OR Dept. of Education, Oct. 1
membership file
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
School year
• 8% of Oregonians enrolled in higher-ed were Latino (ACS, 06-10)
• 18% of Oregonians enrolled in K-12 were Latino (ACS, 06-10)
5. MAKE SENSE OF THE DATA
Interpreting the data
• Interpretation requires:
• Knowing the unit of analysis
• Understanding how accurate the data are
• Understanding what the stats you’ve created mean and imply (e.g.,
population % change ’90-’00: represents in-migration or changes to the
birth and death rates?)
• Understanding the strengths and limitations of the stats
Telling the story
Answer a series of questions with the data
• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?
• What’s surprising?
• Where are the gaps?
• Where are the assets among this population?
• What further questions are we asking ourselves?
Discussion
My take on the statistical story about Latinos in Oregon…
• Growing population with unique attributes (age, labor,
language)
• Over-represented in K-12 and under-represented in higher-ed
• Contribute greatly to our economy and society
• Disadvantaged and vulnerable group, that may improve its
advantage in future generations
• Reliant on allies and coalitions to make policy decisions that
benefit them
Gap Areas
1. Gap between Latino and non-Latino socioeconomic
outcomes:
• Educational attainment
• Income
• Poverty
2. Under-representation of Latinos in higher-education
3. Under-representation of Latinos in politics, despite
influential policies being established affecting this population
Consequences
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes
• Demand for social services
• Health and other outcomes
2. Inequitable educational representation
• Low-skill and low-wage work concentration
3. Inequitable political representation
• Recent policy outcomes appear favorable
Do we need more information about consequences?
Which gap area deserves more attention?
Causes
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes
• Immigration history
• Concentration in low-wage jobs
2. Inequitable educational representation
• Age structure
• Immigration legacy
3. Inequitable political representation
• Not enough information from stats
Do we have enough information about causes?
Preliminary solutions to high priority needs (gaps)
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes
• Improve wages of jobs held by Latinos
• Improve the job prospects of Latinos
• Others?
2. Inequitable representation in education
• Wait for population to age
Solutions that I can handle…
1. Socioeconomic outcomes
• Increase the amount of information I share about outcomes among
Latinos
• Share information w/advocacy groups that are working on improving
the wages of jobs held by Latinos and the job prospects for Latinos
Our secondary statistical analysis prompts more
questions
About Level 2’s needs
• How are data being used for advocacy or for educating non-Latinos?
• How can data be used to help improve the quality of life for Latinos?
• How is it being used?
• How should it be used?
Causes & Consequences
…Phase II is necessary…
Program Planning Cycle
1. Analyze the
situation: Needs
Assessment
7. Evaluate
2. Set goal to
address need
3. Design
program to
meet goal
6. Implement
5. Plan program
details
4. Take stock of
& gather
resources
QUESTIONS?
Training Evaluation
For live streaming viewers:
Either type this link into your URL, or email me so I can send you the link
after this training
http://survey.qualtrics.com/SE/?
SID=SV_eWgfoWdsyZFiJHn
Lena Etuk – lena.etuk@oregonstate.edu
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