Predictors of floater status in a long-lived bird: a cross-sectional and longitudinal test of hypotheses Fabrizio Sergio*, Julio Blas and Fernando Hiraldo Department of Applied Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, C.S.I.C. Avenida Maria Luisa s/n, Pabellón del Perú, Apdo 1056, E-41013 Sevilla, Spain Summary 1. Few studies have been capable of monitoring the nonterritorial sector of a population because of the typically secretive behaviour of floating individuals, despite the existing consensus over the demographic importance of floating. Furthermore, there is almost no information on floating behaviour for migratory species. 2. The factors that determine whether an individual will be a floater or a territory owner have been framed into five, non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: (i) territory holders are morphologically superior to floaters (resource-holding potential hypothesis); (ii) age confers skills and fighting motivation which lead to social dominance and territory ownership (age hypothesis); (iii) occupancy time of a site determines asymmetries in its knowledge, familiarity and value for potential contenders (site-dominance hypothesis); (iv) contenders use an arbitrary rule to settle contests leading to pre-defined cut-off points for a biologically meaningful trait (e.g. age, body size) separating floaters from territory holders (arbitrary convention hypothesis); and (v) floaters set up a ‘war of attrition’ at arbitrarily chosen territories (arbitrary attrition hypothesis). 3. We tested these hypotheses using long-term data on a long-lived, migratory raptor, the black kite Milvus migrans Boddaert. 4. Floating status was best explained by the concerted action of mechanisms consistent with the age and site-dominance hypotheses. 5. In both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, acquisition of a territory was determined by a complex interaction between age and early arrival from migration, suggesting: (i) a progressive incorporation of early arriving individuals in the territorial contingent of the population, and (ii) the existence of an alternative restraint strategy of delayed territoriality mediated by long-term acquisition of social dominance. 6. Such results suggested that territory acquisition was mediated by the establishment of site dominance through pre-emption and, secondarily, despotism. In this population, age and arrival date aligned individuals along a demographic continuum ranging from successful breeders monopolizing high-quality resources to floaters with no resources, consistent with the notion of floating as an extreme form of breeding failure. Key-words: dominance, floating, nonbreeders, territoriality, territory acquisition Introduction Many populations of territorial species are composed of both territory holders and nonterritorial, usually nonbreeding individuals, commonly defined as ‘floaters’. The existence of such floating contingent has been demonstrated in taxa as diverse as fish, mammals and birds (Newton 1992; Solomon & Jaquot 2002; Voigt & Streich 2002; Brännäs, *Correspondence author. sergio8@tin.it E-mail: fsergio@ebd.csic.es, fabrizio. Jonsson & Lundquivst 2003). Floating is usually viewed either as a constraint imposed by territory holders on a ‘doomed surplus’ of lower-quality individuals (Newton 1992), or as a restraint integral to a strategy of delayed breeding and fitness enhancement (Smith & Arcese 1989; Zach & Stutchbury 1992). Whatever the underlying mechanism, there is growing recognition of the importance of floating behaviour for individual fitness and population regulation (e.g. Hunt 1998; Kokko & Sutherland 1998; Newton 1998; Penteriani et al. 2005). However, studying floaters has invariably proven difficult because of their elusive behaviour Table 1. Hypotheses explaining the determinants of the status of individuals as floaters or territory holders. Predictions have been adapted to the model system under analysis (a migratory, long-lived bird) Hypothesis 1. Resource-holding potential Mechanism determining territorial status Morphological characteristics yield capabilities to acquire resources Predictions 1a 1b 1c 2. Age (social dominance; undivisive asymmetry) Age confers dominance status 2a 2b 2c 3. Site dominance (value asymmetry) Site occupancy and familiarity determine value asymmetries between potential contenders 3a 3b 3c 3d 4. Arbitrary convention (uncorrelated asymmetry) Territorial status determined by an arbitrary rule (e.g. the resident always wins) 4a 4b 5. Arbitrary attrition hypothesis Floaters set up a war of attrition at a small number of arbitrarily chosen territories 5a 5b 5c Supported† Body measures predict territorial status‡ Body measures predict the transition from floater to territorial status§ In takeovers, body measures predict success in territory acquisition Floaters are younger than territory holders‡ Floaters are younger than ‘first-time territory holders’§ In takeovers, age predicts success in territory acquisition * Floaters arrive later from migration than territory holders‡ Floaters arrive later than ‘first-time territory holders’§ Longitudinal improvements in arrival date enhance floaters’ likelihood of acquiring a territory¶ In takeovers, arrival date predicts success in territory acquisition * * * * * In all comparisons, floaters and holders are separated by a cut-off value (of body size, age, or arrival date) In takeovers, evicted and winners are separated by a single cut-off value. Floaters and holders do not differ for any of the tested traits (body measures, age, arrival)†† Floaters and ‘first-time territory holders’§ do not differ for any of the tested traits†† In takeovers, evicted and winners do not differ for any of the tested traits†† †Symbol legend: *the prediction was supported by the Results of this study; ‡this prediction compares floaters with any type of territory holder; §this prediction compares floaters with territory holders at their first year of successful territory acquisition (first-time ‘breeders’), that is, between floaters that succeeded or not in acquiring a territory that year. ¶For individuals repeatedly sampled in consecutive years, longitudinal improvements in arrival dates are more pronounced for individuals in transition between floater and territory holder status in successive years than for individuals that remain floaters in consecutive years. ††This hypothesis predicts no clear separation between territory holders and floaters in terms of quality traits such as age or body size, because floaters can eventually obtain a territory even if they lose all fights with owners (Stutchbury 1991). (review in Zach & Stutchbury 1992), to the point that they have been referred to as a ‘shadow’ population living in a secretive ‘underworld’ (Smith 1978; Rohner 1997). Furthermore, there is almost no information on floating behaviour for migratory species (Porter 1988; Stutchbury 1991). The factors that determine whether an individual will be a floater or a territory owner have been usually framed into the following five, non-mutually-exclusive hypotheses (summarized in Table 1): (i) the resource-holding potential (RHP) hypothesis suggests that, compared to floaters, territory holders will have characteristics (larger size, strength etc.) that promote higher capabilities to acquire and defend resources (Mönkkönen 1990; Lozano 1994; Pryke & Andersson 2003). This hypothesis predicts that territory holders will be larger than floaters or morphologically different, and that such characteristics will lead to higher success during contests over territories. (ii) The age (or social dominance) hypothesis proposes that age (and its associated decline in residual reproductive value) confers skills and fighting motivation which lead to social dominance and thus to higher likelihood of successfully acquiring and defending a territory (Rohwer, Ewald & Rohwer 1981; Grafen 1987; Shutler & Weatherhead 1991). This hypothesis predicts that younger individuals will be more likely to be floaters and to loose contests over territories. Some authors consider this hypothesis as a special case of RHP (Shutler & Weatherhead 1991). (iii) The site dominance (or value asymmetry) hypothesis states that the occupancy time of a site determines asymmetries in its knowledge, familiarity and value for potential contenders (Krebs 1982; Beletsky & Orians 1989; Tobias 1997). It predicts that, all else being equal, territory holders will have spent more time at the site than floating individuals which did not succeed in acquiring it. (iv) The arbitrary convention (or uncorrelated asymmetry) hypothesis postulates that contenders use an arbitrary rule to settle contests, such ‘the resident always wins’, or ‘the older always wins (Davies 1978; Rohwer 1982). It predicts the existence of some pre-defined cut-off point for a biologically meaningful trait (e.g. age, body size), below which all individuals will be either all floaters or all territory holders. (v) The arbitrary attrition hypothesis claims that floating individuals choose an arbitrary number of territories where they regularly intrude and challenge the owner in a ‘war of attrition’ won by who is able to persist the longest (Stutchbury 1991). It predicts no clear separation between territory holders and floaters in terms of quality traits such as age or body size, because floaters can eventually obtain a territory even if they lose all fights with owners (Stutchbury 1991). It is important to note that the above hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Overall, the relative importance of these hypotheses in predicting territorial status remains unclear, as inconsistent results have even been obtained for different populations of the same species (e.g. Eckert & Weatherhead 1987; Pryke & Andersson 2003). Therefore, there is a great need for further empirical tests in order to reach a consensus over a potential general pattern. To date, studies on floaters have mainly included: (i) model species which are small-sized, short-lived and year-round residents (reviews in Newton 1992; and Zach & Stutchbury 1992); (ii) theoretical models examining the consequences of floating for individual fitness and population regulation (e.g. Zach & Stutchbury 1992; Kokko & Sutherland 1998); (iii) estimates of floater abundance (Rohner 1996; Kenward et al. 2000; Newton & Rothery 2001); (iv) removal experiments (Newton 1992); and (v) analyses of territory acquisition where floater characteristics are indirectly inferred by examining individuals at their first incorporation into the territorial sector of the population (e.g. Porter 1988; Arcese 1989). Given the secretiveness of floating, unavoidably some of these methods yield an incomplete picture of floater characteristics because of inherent biases and assumptions. Commonly reported biases include: (i) the difficulty to detect and monitor all floater age classes in observational studies (e.g. Smith & Arcese 1989; Stutchbury 1991; Kenward et al. 2000); (ii) the incapability to distinguish between nonbreeding territorial holders and true floaters (e.g. Eckert & Weatherhead 1987; Kenward et al. 2000); (iii) the younger age classes of floaters never reclaim territories and are thus missed in some removal experiments (e.g. Shutler & Weatherhead 1994); (iv) studies on the age of first territorial acquisition unavoidably miss a large portion of floaters which die without ever being territorial; (v) in removal experiments, the contests between the removed owner trying to regain its territory against its artificially induced replacement yield unclear information because both contenders may believe to be the owner, an unrealistic condition in a natural setting (e.g. Shutler & Weatherhead 1992); (vi) floaters occupy areas and habitats disjunct from those of breeders (e.g. Ferrer & Harte 1997), which confounds direct comparisons between floater and holder characteristics (e.g. differences in body condition caused by habitat rather than territorial status). Therefore, as noted by other authors (Newton 1992; Zach & Stutchbury 1992; Danchin & Cam 2002), there is a great need for empirical studies where floaters co-exist with breeders and can be observed before they become territorial and without removing territory holders. This would represent a much needed complement to previous experimental or indirect analyses. Here we use a long-term data set on the population of a long-lived migratory raptor, the black kite Milvus migrans Boddaert, in which floaters co-exist with territory holders and can be easily identified. Previous studies on floaters in raptors have been extremely few, most of them focused on small-sized short-lived species, none of them was conducted on migrants, and they were mostly based on indirect methods (removal experiments, or estimation of floater numbers based on breeders demographic rates) (Village 1990; Rohner 1996; Ferrer & Harte 1997; Hunt 1998; Kenward et al. 2000; Newton & Rothery 2001). None of them was framed as a test of the above hypotheses. Methods STUDY AREA Kites were studied in a 430-km2 plot located in Doñana National Park (south-western Spain). The landscape was characterized by seasonally flooded marshland, scrublands, grasslands, and mobile sand dunes along the sea shore. STUDY SPECIES The black kite is a medium-sized, migratory raptor. In our population, the age of first territorial establishment ranges between 1 and 7 years and the maximum recorded life span is 23 years (Blas, Sergio & Hiraldo 2009). On return from migration, individuals settle on breeding territories, which usually include a nest site and an area of 20–200 m around it, while foraging occurs over wider, undefended (communal) areas. The population was stable during the study period at around 500 breeding pairs plus 400–500 nonbreeding individuals congregated in six communal roosts (Blas 2002). The roosts are regularly distributed within the matrix of breeding territories and the floaters use hunting areas that overlap widely with those of breeders (i.e. floaters and breeders fully co-exist). Breeding and natal dispersal distances are short (median 302 m and 4800 m respectively) and extensive surveys suggest the absence of emigration to other populations (Forero et al. 1999; Forero, Donázar & Hiraldo 2002). FIELD PROCEDURES In all analyses, we employ reproductive data collected between 1997 and 2000. However, ringing activities started earlier in the following staggered manner: since 1964, as many nestlings as possible have been marked every year with metal rings. Since 1986, the nestlings were also marked with a white plastic ring with a black, threecharacter alphanumeric code, which can be read by telescope without disturbing the birds. In addition, since 1986, we used cannon nets and padded leg-hold traps throughout the study area to capture and mark adults with metal and plastic rings. Many of these had been metal-banded as nestlings before 1986, which subsequently allowed us to sample all the age classes in the population. For each trapped adult, we measured body mass to the nearest 5 g, tarsus length to the nearest 0·1 mm, and wing length and tail length to the nearest 1·0 mm. Overall, up to 2000, 2367 nestlings were marked only with metal bands, and 4257 nestlings plus 1076 adults were marked with both metal and plastic bands. Individuals were sexed by molecular analysis of a blood sample (Ellegren 1996) or by multiple observations of copulation behaviour. Marked territory holders were searched intensively by visiting breeding territories every 4–5 days. A marked individual was assigned to a specific territory when it was observed there in more than three separate visits. In our population, floaters regularly gather to sleep at communal roosts throughout the spring–summer (authors’ unpublished telemetry data on > 40 floaters). Roost sites were checked in the evening from hides every 4–5 days throughout the spring–summer and we classified as floaters all individuals that were (i) detected at roosts in ≥ two visits separated by ≥ 15 days in the period 15 April–15 June, and (ii) never observed holding a breeding territory in that year. Telemetry data on > 40 confirmed floaters indicated that such procedure could reliably identify floater status. Arrival date from migration was expressed as the date of first observation of a marked individual, which is known to be a reliable estimate of true settlement date (details in Sergio et al. 2007a). The extremely frequent visits to territories allowed detection of numerous cases in which a marked bird was observed to hold a territory and to be replaced by another individual at a later date. In all the cases in which this was directly observed, it was accompanied by fighting, which sometimes escalated into talon-locking, with individuals grasping each other’s talons in flight and falling to the ground, where fighting continued until one of the contestants escaped. For this reason, we assume that most of the observed replacements were aggressive evictions. Hereafter, we refer to such contests as ‘takeovers’, to the expelled bird as the ‘evicted’ and to the new occupant as the ‘winner’. HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES Because univariate metrics have been criticized as measures of body size (Freeman & Jackson 1990), we estimated size by means of the first axis (PC1, hereafter ‘body size’) of a principal components analysis built using tarsus, wing and tail length. The PC1 explained 62% of the variation in size and had high positive loadings for wing length (r = 0·87), tarsus length (0·52) and tail length (0·68). We used body mass corrected for skeletal size as an index of condition. In particular, as mass varied with year and body size, we standardized it by using the residuals of such relationship as an index of body condition (see Sergio et al. 2007b, unpublished data and references therein). The five testable hypotheses and their main predictions are summarized in Table 1. Throughout, we assume that early arrival from migration allowed individuals more time to acquire general familiarity with the area and to establish site dominance through pre-emption (Sergio et al. 2007a; predictions 3a–d). To test the effect of age, arrival date and body measures on territorial status (predictions 1a, 2a, 3a, 5a), we built a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM, Littel et al. 1996) with year (as a random factor), individual identity (as a random factor), sex, age, arrival date, body size, body condition and their first-order interactions as explanatory variables and territorial status (floater vs. territory holder) as the dependent variable (n = 170 individuals, details in Table 3). Because body size and condition were never significant and were available for a sub-sample of trapped birds, we re-ran the analysis without fitting body measurements. This allowed to increase the sample size to 714 individuals. To further test whether body size, age or arrival date afforded a higher likelihood of territory acquisition for floaters (prediction 1b, 2b, 3b), we built the same GLMM as above, but restricted the analysis to territory holders at their first year of successful territory acquisition (first-time ‘breeders’, n = 111 individuals when including the effect of body measures, n = 280 individuals without including the effect of body measures, details in Table 3). While the previous models compared floaters with all territory owners, this analysis discriminated cross-sectionally between floaters that succeeded or not in acquiring a territory that year. To gain a further understanding of the link between arrival date and territorial status, we conducted a longitudinal analysis of the improvement in arrival dates in relation to age and territorial status for individuals sampled in consecutive years (prediction 3c). For each marked individual whose arrival date was known in consecutive years, we: (i) calculated whether its arrival improved (became earlier or not) in consecutive years; and (ii) tested by means of a binomial test whether there was a preponderance of individuals improving their arrival for each age class category (e.g. transition from age 1 to 2 years old, 2 to 3 years old, etc) and for each of three territorial status categories: (i) floater, (ii) territory holder, and (iii) individuals in transition between the status of floater and territory holder in consecutive years. To test whether age, arrival date or body measures predicted successful territory acquisition during a takeover (predictions 1c, 2c, 3d, 4a, 5c), we built a GLM with takeover success as the dependent variable and sex, age, arrival date, body size and body condition as the explanatory variables. To increase sample size, for this analysis we employed all the takeover episodes recorded between 1992 and 2006. Because winners of takeovers included both individuals that were previously floaters and individuals that previously held a territory elsewhere (individuals switching to another territory), we conducted two separate analyses. In the first, we compared floaters that succeeded in usurping a territory (i.e. which abandoned floater status) with floaters that failed to evict the previous territory owner during a takeover attempt (n = 39). In the second, we compared floaters that failed to acquire a territory during a takeover attempt with experienced territory holders that succeeded in switching to another territory and evicting its previous owner (n = 50). All models were built through a backward stepwise procedure where the least significant terms or interactions were sequentially removed until obtaining a minimal adequate model that only retained significant effects at the 5% probability level (Crawley 1993). All tests are two-tailed, statistical significance was set at α < 0·05, and all means are given ± 1 SE. Results P RE LIMINA R Y, DE S CRIPT IV E T EST S Compared to territory holders, floaters of both sexes were smaller, younger and arrived later from migration (Table 2; Figs 1 and 2). Body condition did not vary significantly between floaters and territory holders (Table 2), but its seasonal variations differed between the two status categories (Fig. 3): the body condition of territory holders declined rather constantly through the breeding cycle. In contrast, the Table 2. Generalized linear mixed model logistic regressions (with binomial errors and a logit link function) testing the effect of sex, age, arrival date from migration, body size and body condition on the territorial status of black kites in Doñana National Park (Spain). (a) comparison between floaters and territory holders for 72 males and 98 females for which body measurements were available; (b) comparison between floaters and territory holders for an extended sample of 361 males and 353 females for which body measurements were not available‡; (c) comparison between floaters and individuals acquiring a territory for the first time in their life (n = 146 males and 134 females); (d) comparison between floaters that succeeded in usurping a territory and floaters that failed to evict the previous territory owner during a takeover attempt (n = 17 males and 22 females); (e) comparison between floaters that failed to acquire a territory and experienced territory holders that succeeded in switching to another territory and evicting its previous owner during a takeover attempt (n = 19 males and 31 females). Random factors (year and individual identity) are only shown when their effect was significant Variable Parameter estimate ± SE a. Dependent variable: territorial status (with body measures, n = 170)† Age Arrival date Intercept b. Dependent variable: territorial status (without body measures, n = 714)‡ Age Arrival date Interaction term: age × arrival date Intercept c. Dependent variable: territorial status (first time territory holders, n = 280)§ Age Arrival date Interaction term: age × arrival date Intercept d. Dependent variable: floater success in a takeover attempt (n = 39)¶ No variable entered the model e. Dependent variable: territorial status in a takeover attempt (n = 50)†† Age Intercept F Percentage of deviance explained P 66·6 −0·39 ± 0·04 0·02 ± 0·004 5·22 ± 0·21 91·0 16·5 – < 0·001 0·002 – 53·6 −19·38 ± 1·86 2·18 ± 0·15 −0·23 ± 0·02 −176·08 ± 13·96 108·7 198·1 123·3 – < 0·001 < 0·001 < 0·001 – 34·6 –0·13 ± 0·02 ± 0·07 ± 0·44 ± 0·04 0·001 0·03 0·13 – 10·03 3·27 4·75 – 0·003 0·075 0·033 – – – 42·3 1·07 ± 0·03 −6·21 ± 1·81 36·9 – < 0·0001 – †1, territory holder; 2, floater. This analysis employs only individuals for which body measurements were available. ‡1, territory holder; 2, floater. Because the effect of body measures was not significant in Model a, the model was repeated on a sample of individuals for which body measurements were or not available. This allowed a marked increase in sample size. §1, individual holding a territory for the first time in its life; 2, floater. ¶1, floater which failed to usurp a territory; 2, floater that succeeded to evict a previous owner. ††1, floater which failed to usurp a territory; 2, experienced territory holders that succeeded in switching to another territory and evicting its previous owner. Table 3. Mean (± SE) age, arrival date from migration, body size and body condition of floaters and territory holders of both sexes in a black kite population of Doñana National Park (Spain) Variable Floater (n) Territory holder (n) Age Arrival date Body size Body condition 2·39 ± 0·06 (400) (167†) 123·9 ± 1·6 (300) (134‡) −0·49 ± 0·09 (128) (33§) −11·85 ± 8·18 (127) (33 §) 6·76 ± 86·9 ± 0·28 ± 6·72 ± 0·13 (637) (63†) 0·6 (697) (146‡) 0·06 (228) (141§) 5·82 (224) (138§) t P 24·93 27·94 7·49 1·88 < 0·0001 < 0·0001 < 0·0001 0·06 †Individuals of unknown sex included in the sample; ‡individuals of unknown sex or age included in the sample; §individuals of unknown age included in the sample. body condition of floaters declined from pre-laying to incubation and steeply recovered thereafter. Because of such different trends, in the following analyses body condition was recalculated as the residuals of body mass on body size, year and breeding stage. H YP OT H ES IS 1: R ES O U RC E-H O L D IN G P OT E NT IA L Once accounting for the effects of age and arrival date in a GLMM, body size and condition did not predict territorial status (in all tests, F ≤ 0·53, P ≥ 0·47; Table 3). Similarly, Fig. 1. Age structure of the floater and territorial portions of the black kite population of Doñana National Park (Spain). Fig. 3. Body condition of floater and territorial black kites along four successive stages of the breeding season (Doñana National Park, Spain). Body condition was estimated as the residuals of a regression of body mass on body size and year (see Methods). For floaters, breeding stage was assigned on the basis of the yearly mean laying date of breeding individuals, assuming an incubation period of 30 days and a nestling period of 48 days. For example, if a floater was trapped and measured 15 days after the yearly mean laying date of the population, its body condition was assigned to the incubation stage. Sample sizes in the four breeding stages were: 107, 40, 72, 5 for breeders and 55, 20, 42, 10 for floaters. during territory takeovers, body size and condition did not predict floater success in acquiring a territory (F ≤ 0·36, P ≥ 0·56; Table 3). There was no support for the RHP hypothesis. H YP OT H ES IS 2: A G E (S O C IA L D O M IN A N C E) Age entered all GLMMs discriminating between floaters and territory holders (Table 3a,b,c; Fig. 1). Territory holders were consistently older than floaters. During takeovers, territory holders that succeeded in switching to a new territory and evicting its previous owner were older than floaters which failed to usurp a territory (Table 3e). The age hypothesis was supported. H Y P O T H E S I S 3: S I T E D O M I N A N C E (V A L U E A S YMME T R Y) Fig. 2. Arrival date from migration for floater and territorial black kites in relation to age (Doñana National Park, Spain), when including (a) all territory holders and (b) only individuals at their first territorial establishment. Sample sizes in the seven age categories were: (a) 1, 21, 78, 75, 81, 59, 287 for breeders and 47, 157, 48, 22, 14, 6, 6 for floaters; (b) 1, 21, 56, 25, 16, 8, 3 for breeders and 47, 157, 48, 22, 14, 6, 6 for floaters. Arrival date from migration and its interaction with age entered all GLMMs discriminating between floaters and territory holders (Table 3a,b,c). In such cross-sectional analyses, arrival date improved constantly with age for territory holders, while for floaters, arrival date improved steeply only during the first three years of life (Fig. 2). In longitudinal analyses, arrival date improved significantly for floaters between 1 and 2 years old and marginally so between age 2–3 years (Table 4, Fig. 4). For floaters that succeeded in acquiring a territory (successful transition to territoriality), arrival date improved between ages 1–2 and Table 4. Percentage of cases in which the arrival date from migration improved from 1 year to the next for a given individual. For territory holders, only data up to 5 years of age were considered, in order to make them comparable to the data on floaters. Improvements above 75% are highlighted in bold Age Floaters (n†) P‡ Transition between floater and territory holder (n†)§ P‡ Territory holders (n†) P‡ 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 Pooled 90% (10) 79% (14) 40% (5) −¶ 76% (29) 0·021 0·057 −¶ −¶ 0·009 100% (11) 97% (29) 75% (8) 100% (5) 94% (53) 0·001 < 0·001 0·28 0·06 < 0·001 −¶ 50% (4) 69% (32) 44% (32) 56% (68) −¶ −¶ 0·052 0·60 0·40 †Number of individuals, each one sampled in two successive years; ‡tested by means of a binomial test; §individuals sampled in the year of their first territorial establishment and in the previous year (their last year as floaters); ¶not available, or sample size too low for any meaningful estimate or test. Furthermore, in at least two cases, an individual known to hold a territory in previous years was evicted from it and the process was accompanied by much fighting. Therefore, residence in previous years did not guarantee successful defence from eviction by floaters, falsifying the ‘resident always wins’ arbitrary rule. H YP OT H ES IS 5: A RB IT RA R Y A T T R IT IO N Fig. 4. Longitudinal improvement in arrival date from migration for floaters, territory holders and individuals in transition between the status of floater and territory holder (i.e. between the year before and after their first acquisition of a territory). The y-axis represents the percentage of individuals that improved their arrival date in successive years (i.e. how many birds arrived earlier in the second of the 2 years in which they were consecutively sampled). 2–3 (Table 4, Fig. 4). Similar rates of improvement were apparent for ages 3–4 and 4–5, but sample size was too low to reach significance (Table 4, Fig. 4). For territory holders, there was only a weak indication of longitudinal improvements in arrival dates from migration (Table 4, Fig. 4). Therefore, improvements in arrival dates were minimum for territory holders, intermediate for floaters and maximum for individuals that managed to make the transition between floating and territorialism. During takeovers, arrival date from migration was never a predictor of floater success in acquiring a territory. Therefore, the site-dominance hypothesis was partially supported. H YP OT H ES IS 4: A RB IT RA R Y C O N VE NT IO N (U N C O RR E LAT E D A S YMME T R Y) There was no evidence of any cut-point above or below which all individuals were either floaters or breeders for any of the examined variables and in any comparison. In the four cases in which both the evicted and the winner were marked and in which fighting was directly observed (i.e. cases of sure takeover attempts), there was no clear separation between contenders in terms of body measures, age or arrival date, all variables overlapping considerably. In all comparisons, age and/or arrival date predicted territorial status (Table 3), disproving predictions 5a,b,c. Furthermore, in an ongoing study, telemetry data from > 40 floaters showed that they occupied very large home ranges, encompassing 100–250 breeding territories and overlapping widely with those of all other floaters (authors’ unpublished data). Therefore, floaters did not seem to queue for specific territories contained within restricted home ranges, nor intruded consistently in certain territories over others. The arbitrary attrition hypothesis was not supported. Discussion Of the five tested hypotheses, there was no support for the RHP, arbitrary convention and arbitrary attrition hypothesis. The idea that morphological characteristics (i.e. RHP) can determine dominance and territorial status is contradictory, having received support from some studies (Mönkkönen 1990; Lozano 1994; Pryke & Andersson 2003; Sol et al. 2005) but not others (Eckert & Weatherhead 1987; Shutler & Weatherhead 1991, 1992; Peer, Robertson & Kempenaers 2000). The arbitrary convention hypothesis has been disproved in various empirical investigations (e.g. Beletsky & Orians 1989; Smith & Arcese 1989), has been criticized on theoretical grounds by Grafen (1987), and seems to be poorly suited to avian territorial systems and long-lived species which occupy territories for long periods (Grafen 1987; Beletsky & Orians 1989). Finally, the arbitrary attrition hypothesis is likely to apply only to certain species, because other previous studies have also reported that floaters do not hold restricted home ranges encompassing only a few territories (e.g. Shutler & Weatherhead 1992, 1994). In contrast, there was support for the age hypothesis and, partly, for the site-dominance hypothesis. Age can lead to a higher likelihood of territory acquisition in five non-exclusive ways: (i) age can directly confer or be associated with higher dominance status, as shown in many studies (e.g. Smith et al. 1980; Rohwer et al. 1981; Cronin & Field 2007); (ii) older individuals have lower residual reproductive value and are thus expected to be ready to fight harder for a territory (Grafen 1987; Shutler & Weatherhead 1994). This is consistent with the age effect that we observed in takeover fights. (iii) Conversely, in long-lived species with dangerous weaponry, like raptors, younger individuals are more likely to refrain from physical confrontations given the risk of lethal injuries and their likelihood of surviving to the next breeding season. (iv) In long-lived species, the cost of reproduction is often high (e.g. Tavecchia et al. 2001), selecting for delayed territoriality as a voluntary restraint in order to enhance longevity and the quality of the territory eventually acquired (Zach & Stutchbury 1992; Hunt 1998; Kokko & Sutherland 1998). Consistent with this idea, in our population delayed breeding led to higher longevity and older birds monopolized the best territories (Sergio et al. 2007a, unpublished; Blas et al. 2009). Such strategy may contribute to accumulate older birds in the territorial sector of the population. (v) Finally, even assuming that vacancies are filled randomly by the first individuals encountering them, older individuals will have accumulated more time and thus a higher probability to chance upon a vacancy than younger ones, contributing to the older age-structure of territory holders (Shutler & Weatherhead 1994). However, this mechanism is unlikely in our model-system, because it assumes that territory holders do not suffer takeovers (Eckert & Weatherhead 1987) and it cannot explain why the winners of takeovers were older than the evicted individuals. In agreement with the above ideas, most previous studies have shown that floaters are usually younger than territory holders (Porter 1985; Smith & Arcese 1989; Shutler & Weatherhead 1991; Sol et al. 2005; Blanco et al. 2007; but see also Stutchbury 1991). However, in our population age alone could not be the sole predictor of territorial status because there was (i) wide overlap in the age structure of floaters and holders (Fig. 1), and (ii) pronounced variation among individuals in the age of first territorial establishment (range: 1–7 years old). Therefore, two individuals of the same age could still belong to different categories of territorial status. Variation in arrival dates may help to explain such differences in territorial status within age classes (Fig. 2, see below). Independent of age, early arriving birds had a higher likelihood of acquiring a territory (Table 4, Fig. 2). Early arrival from migration may allow floaters to: (i) find more numerous vacant territories; (ii) have more time to encounter vacancies and gain familiarity with the general area; (iii) pre-empt territories (sensu Rodenhouse, Sherry & Holmes 1997) for long enough to develop subsequent site dominance. All this is consistent with the site-dominance hypothesis. On the other hand, in our system, occupying a territory too early could lead to subsequent eviction by an older individual, suggesting that the effect of site dominance can be overcome by direct aggression coupled with social dominance. This implies a concerted action of the mechanisms proposed by the site-dominance and age hypotheses. In agreement with this, territorial status was consistently predicted by the interaction between age and arrival date. In particular, the comparison of Figs 2 and 4 suggested a complex interplay between age and arrival in determining territorial status. In the cross-sectional analysis shown in Fig. 2a, territory holders constantly improved their arrival with increasing age, particularly so in the youngest age classes. However, in the longitudinal analysis of Fig. 4, territory holders did not show such pronounced improvement in arrival dates. By exclusion, this implies a process of progressive incorporation of early arriving birds into the territorial pool of the population, confirmed by the longitudinal analyses in which the transition from floater to territorial status coincided with pronounced improvements in arrival dates (Table 4, Fig. 4). In turn, such progressive removal of early arriving birds from the floater sector of the population may explain why floaters did not show any further cross-sectional improvement in arrival date beyond the age of 3 years (Fig. 2a). Therefore, only late-arriving birds seemed to accumulate in the older floater age classes. Such ‘late, old’ floaters could be either low-quality individuals incapable to advance their arrival, or individuals with an alternative, delayed breeding strategy. The latter explanation seems more likely, because such delayed breeders had a better nutritional status (Blas 2002) and a higher longevity (Blas et al. 2009), which is usually a reliable predictor of lifetime reproductive success (Newton 1989). The above reasoning is consistent with two alternative ‘career-decisions’ co-existing in the population: (i) an investment in early arrival and early incorporation into the territorial sector of the population; and (ii) an investment in long-term survival and in acquisition of social dominance. The first strategy entails a route to territoriality mainly mediated by the establishment of site dominance, while the second may rely more on the dominance status conferred by age. However, considering that 84% of the individuals become territorial within 4 years of age, the site-dominance route to territoriality seems to be the predominant one in the population. All the above reinforces the idea of previous analyses, and extends it to the floater contingent, that access to breeding territories in this population is mediated by pre-emption and, secondarily, despotism (see Sergio et al. 2007a). To date, we are aware of only one previous study which focused on the potential link between arrival date and territorial status (Porter 1985). Its results were remarkably similar to ours: in Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, improvements in arrival dates were particularly pronounced in the younger age classes, and, within each age class, floaters arrived later than established breeders. Longitudinal improvements in arrival were particularly marked for individuals passing from floater to territorial status. Although more studies will be needed, the above observations suggest that the patterns found for our population may be common to many other migratory species. Furthermore, the five hypotheses we tested could also be valid for resident, nonmigratory species. However, site dominance would be attained through different mechanisms. For example, rather than investing in early arrival, floaters of resident species could invest in frequent visits to breeding areas in order to improve their site familiarity and their chances of pre-empting a vacancy. Dispersal movements consistent with such idea have been observed in some studies (Ferrer & Harte 1997; Kenward et al. 2000). In conclusion, annual breeding in the study population was competitively structured by age along a sequence of arrival dates. Older breeders arrived early and pre-emptively monopolized resources. Lower quality individuals (e.g. younger) arrived progressively later and accessed lower-quality resources (Sergio et al. 2007a). At the end-tail of such demographic continuum were the even younger and later arriving floaters, consistent with the previously proposed notion of floating as an extreme form of breeding failure (e.g. Danchin & Cam 2002). Aggressive takeovers reinforced the age-structured determination of territorial status and, possibly, weakened the advantages provided by early arrival. This may have partly insured the honesty of arrival date as a cue to individual quality and site dominance for potential, later-arriving contenders. Exceptions to this general pattern existed in the form of alternative strategies, where some individuals were capable of acquiring territories by arriving very early despite a young age, or by investing in long-term acquisition of social dominance, suggesting the importance of individual variation in life-history decisions through time. Acknowledgements We thank F.G. Vilches, R. Baos, S. Cabezas, J.A. Donázar, M.G. Forero, G. García, L. García, M. Guerrero, and A. Sánchez for help in the field and L. Marchesi, K. Norris, an anonymous associate editor and two anonymous referees for comments on a previous draft of the manuscript. 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