II-D II. General equilibrium approaches—theory A. Ana lytical tools : produce rs, consumers, markets and trade B. Geo metric models of trade and env ironment - What are we measuring? Environmental and welfare outcomes C. Comparative static result s and standa rd theo rems D. Simpl e models of trade and environmental policy (OEE Ch. 2.3 – 2.4) 1 II-D Trade and environment policies • Analytically, we want to be able to identify socially optimal policies in economies with environmental problems • The following model does so for an economy with initial distortions due to trade policy and pollution • What are the optimal trade and environmental policies in such an economy? 2 II-D -- Ima gin e a small open econo my in which n goods are produced using m factors. -- Produc tion of each good also gene rates poll ution or an ana logous bad. -- Vectors p, q, c, y and z, each of leng th n, deno te world and domestic prices, consu mption o f marketed comm oditi es, domestic supply, and poll ution respectively. -- Factor endow ments are given by a vec tor v, with leng th m. -- World prices are determi ned outside the model by the small coun try assumption, and do me stic prices are related to them by q = p + t, whe re t is a vec tor of tariffs or expo rt taxes. -- Firms are also sub ject to poll ution taxe s at rates given by the n-vec tor s. -- Choo se the first good to be numéraire, so p = (1, p2, …, pn) and q = (1+t1, p2+t2, …, pn+tn). 3 II-D -- A representative con sumer ha s a utili ty func tion u(c, z), wit h uc > 0 and uz < 0; by assumption, this func tion is strictly qua siconcave in c. -- Agg rega te expend it ure is deno ted by the cond iti ona l expend it ure func tion e(q, z,u) minq' c | u, whe re a prim e denotes the transpo se of a vec tor. -- The expend it ure func tion is non-de creasing and concave in q, and nondecreasing in z and u. -- Partial derivatives of the expend it ure func tion w it h respect to the i’th price give commodit y de ma nds by con sumers. Thus the v ector c of domestic consumer demand s ha s ele ments ci e(q, z,u) qi 0 . 4 II-D -- Agg rega te income is given by a revenue or GN P func tion g(q,s,v) maxq' y s'z | v. -- Partial derivatives of this func tion wit h respect to prices give domestic output suppli es y, a vec tor wit h elements yi g(q, s,v) qi 0 . -- Derivatives wit h respect to env ironmental taxe s give the qu antiti es of poll ution e mitt ed, i.e. zi g(q, s,v) si 0 . -- The revenue fun ction is convex in (q, s) and concav e in v. -- Net imports, m, are the excess of domestic dema nds over supp li es, or for sector i, mi = ci – yi; by definition, mi < 0 if a good is a net expo rt. 5 II-D Assume that tariff and tax revenues a re rebated to consu mers in lump-sum form. Equili brium i s described by the agg rega te budge t constraint (2.1), the market-clearing cond it ion for net imports (2.2), and the production of poll ution (2.3): e(q, z,u) g(q,s,v) s'z t' m (2.1) m eq (q, z,u) gq (q,s,v) (2.2) z gs (2.3) These equa tions can be so lved as a system f or the three endogenou s variables: agg rega te welf are, ne t imports, and the quan tit y of pollution produced . 6 II-D First-best policies address distortions at source -- The welf are effect of small change s in tariff s and poll ution taxes is obtained by totall y d iff erentiating (2.1), assumi ng wo rld prices to be fixed so that dq = dt. Th is yields: eudu = – (ez– s)'dz + t'dm, (2.4) whe re eu is the inve rse of the marginal utilit y of inco me, so the left-hand side of (2.4) is a mon ey metric of welfare change . -- Interpretation o f (2.4): t he fir st-best strategy for a socia l planne r is to set env ir onmental taxes equa l to marginal da mage s, i.e. s = ez, and to pursue free trade, i. e. t = 0. -- Any o ther policy must be associated with lower welfare 7 II-D Second-best solutions depend on c hoosing the appropriate policy mix -- Solve the model in terms of poli cy instruments. Fir st find the change in poll ution by total differentiation o f (2.3): dz = – (gsqdt + gssds), (2.5) and , from ( 2.2), find the change in net imports: dm = Hqqdt + eqzdz + equdu – gqsds, (2.6) whe re Hqq = (eqq – gqq), is positi ve semidefinit e. -- Combining (2.5) and (2.6) in (2.4) yields an exp ression for welf are chang e in terms only o f change s in the poli cy instrume nts t and s: eudu zg sq t' H qq dt z g ss t'gqs ds , (2.7) whe re = (1 – t'm) > 0 is the tariff m ulti pli er, and z = (es' – t'eqz – s') captures the exce ss of po ll ution costs over env ironme ntal tax revenues . 8 II-D Understandin g economic and environmental policy choices from (2 .7) eudu zg sq t' H qq dt z g ss t'gqs ds , (2.7) whe re > 0 is the tariff multi pli er, and z = (es' – t'eqz – s') captures the exc ess of poll ution co sts ove r env ir onmental tax revenue s. 1. Poli cies interact. For example, the welfare cost of a tariff ha s a direct effect through mis all ocation o f consu mer exp enditures and p roduc tive resources, and an indir ect effect through incen tives to poll ute. 2. No sing le poli cy change must increase welfare. E.g. l et ds = 0, dt > 0. Welf are ma y rise or fall , depend ing on whe ther the tariff protects clean or dir ty indus tries (compositi on e ffects). 3. A positive tarif f on clean sectors may b e optim al (trade polic y a s env ir onmental poli cy). 9 II-D Insights -- summary 1. In general equilibrium, there are both direct and indirect effects to be accounted for. 2. Trade and environmental policies may interact. • A tariff has direct welfare effects, and indirect effects through pollution. 3. No single policy change will necessarily improve welfare. • • (Theory of the second best) Thus trade restrictions may serve as instruments of environmental policy. 4. Free trade is not the same as laisser-faire. 10 II-D Some complications… • Distribution of income: what if pollution taxes have greatest impact on the poorest? • Non-traded goods and endogenous factor supplies • There may be env. irreversibilities. • Property rights/open access to natural resources, or free disposal of pollutants. • Spatial variation may be important. * More detailed models are more complex! – Preceding results form a ‘benchmark’ when models cannot easily be solved for analytical results. 11 II-D GE insights for environmental analysis • In open economies, factor and product markets link all sectors. – Indirect as well as direct effects of policies, price shocks, etc., must be measured. • When people derive utility from the environment, ‘true’ welfare is hard to measure. – Most people are willing to accept some degree of environmental damage in return for economic growth. 12