Supply and Demand is
Not Sustainable
Dr. Susan Krumdieck
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Dr. Andre Dantas
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Tony Burton
Energy Systems Engineer
Cape Foulwind
What is this about?
Overview:
•
Past
•
Present
•
Future
Service
andDemand
Availability
Sustainable
Growth?
Supply and
Continuity
Kyoto?
Continuous Growth
Energy
Architecture
Switch
to
Renewables?
Increasing
Demand
The Role of Engineering
Kaikuora
Past
SUPPLY
Price
DEMAND
Economics
S’
$
C
O
S
T
Supply (with tax)
P’
S
Supply (without tax)
P
Demand
Q’
Q
PRODUCTION QUANTITY
Manapouri
Past
Engineering
Advancement
Development
Innovation
Mt. Cook
We also know from the past:
The Supply and Demand Model
most closely represents the
“bloom and collapse”
cycle of bacteria and other
single-cell biota
Problems of Unlimited Growth:
Food Forests Fisheries
Water War Waste
Peak Oil
Global Climate Change
Population
Mass Extinction
Whanganui River
Modern Economics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Supply and Demand
Sustainable Growth
Triple Bottom Line Accounting
Green Image Marketing
Incentives / Carbon Tax
Price Signals for Switch to Alternatives
Sustainable Development
Modern Energy Engineering
Energy is no longer “too cheap to meter”
The Environment is no longer “a free dumping ground”
Energy Auditing
Subsidies
for
Wind
Farms
Fund
Research
on
Fuel
Cells
Deregulation
Motion Sensors
for
Lights
Load Management
Research into BioFuels
Build Bike Paths
Ripple ControlMarket Pricing Upgrade Power Networks
End Use
Demand
Cost
Supply
Energy
Resources
Environment Costs
Health Costs
Catlins
Sustainable Economy Goals
Monowai
Substitute Renewable Energy and Green Products
Stone Jet
into the fossil fuel system,
and you end up with…
Nelson
Moeraki
Farewell Spit
What will happen is what has always happened
Lake Matheson
Future: Engineering Change
• Correctly Pose the Problem
• Theory
• Method
• Analysis
• Engineering
Franz Joseph
Problem Definition
• Economics: Sustained Growth
• Ecology: Sustainable Environment
• Engineering: What ever you want
Fox Glacier
Engineering Problem Definition:
Stable energy and environmental resource
architecture which provides well-being of
civilization within the constraints of
continuous resource availability
Able Tasman
Theory
Regional System Model
Reference
Input
Controls
Actuators
Physical
Plant
Feedback
Catlins
Systems Model
Social, Economic and Energy Architecture
Culture
Values
Education
Regulations
Model
Structure
Interest Rates
Inflation
Income
Innovations
Communication Systems
Computation Capabilities
System Control Strategies
Individuals
Sustainable
Primary
Consumption
and Impacts
+
-
QUALITY
SERVICES
Well Being
Built Environment
ECONOMY
INFRASTRUCTURE
TECHNOLOGY
SUPPLY
Plant, Grid, Market Place,
Roads, Buildings
Appliances, Devices
Energy, Resources
+
CONTINUITY
MODEL
Availability
Performance
Actual Primary
Consumption
and Impacts
IMPACTS
Pollution, Erosion, Species,
Natural Resource Extraction
Environmental Structure
West Coast
Strategic Analysis Methodology
1. Define the system and performance metrics
2. Define objectives for well-being
3. Build socio-economic and cultural history
4. Develop a regional system model
5. Develop Performance-Objective design for
reference energy architecture
6. Evaluate critical change factors
7. Develop scenarios for evolution
Cape Foulwind
Method
“Achieve function and quality goals within the
constraints of resource availability”
Westport
Service and Availability Economy
Available
Desired
Services
Producers
& Suppliers
$
Consumers
Free Market
Relationship
Sustainable
Availability
Information
Flows
Sustainability
Modelling
Natural Resources
Environment
Manapouri
Analysis and Modelling
• Real-Time Simulations
• Virtual Reality Experiential Interface
• Animation
West Coast
Projects and New Technologies
•
Modelling Environment
• Comparator computational systems for real-time
analysis and communication to the community in a
generic and relevant way
• Communication of sustainable built system
possibilities to all sectors of society
•
Built Environment
• Communications systems for access to availability
information
•
Feedback processing of environmental impact data, and
real-time mitigation systems
Moeraki
Or we could keep trying to make
Stone Jets to supply demand
Thanks for your attention