ZOU Ji, China's Policies on Climate Change: a Perspective of Development.

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The Harvard Alumni Association and the Harvard Clubs of Asia
Global Series: China / Asia, Harvard and the World
Pudong Shangri-La, Shanghai, March 28~30, 2008
China’s Policies on Climate Change: a
Perspective of Development
Ji ZOU
Renmin University of China
Outline
• Development strategies: goals, path, and
constraints
• Demand: investment, consumption, and
net export
• Energy use and GHG emissions
• Response measures
• Obstacles and challenges
• Conclusion
Development Strategy: Goals 1
• GDP: Re-doubling the amount of GDP per capita
in 2000 by 2020 (with 7.2% annual growth rate
in average)
• Industrialization: lowering share of agriculture,
raising share of manufacture and service with
higher technological competitiveness and valueadded
• Urbanization: higher share of urban population
(from 45% in 2005 to 60% in 2020 and 75% in
2050) to and adequate urban infrastructure (tap
water, sanitary system, energy, transport,
housing, other public facilities, etc)
Development Strategy: Goals 2
• Full employment – a socioeconomic matter:
surplus labor forces, weak social security system,
and increasing income gap
• Economic stabilization: inflation, increasing cost
of labor, energy and environment
• Trade – export or domestic market-oriented?
Environmental and energy conditions of
accessing to market; flows-in/out of goods,
resources, capitals, and technologies for whom?
Development strategy: path
• Contribution of factor input growth and
efficiency improvement to the gross-growth
rate
G  G f input  G f efficiency
• Kaya Equation:
emission energy GDP
Emission 
*
*
* Pop
energy
GDP Pop
It’s a matter of development paths:
Conventional v.s. Innovative (SD)
GHG
Emission
Conventional path
Limits of GHGs emission
How to make this shift?
Innovative
SD path
Inputs:
1. Install low carbon technologies
2. Human resources
3. Policies and measures
4. Financial resources
GDP per capita
0
6
Development Strategy: Constraints
• Accumulative capital in early stage of
development: from farmers/agriculture and the
environment/natural resources via low price of
labors and primary products
• Huge amount of surplus labors (~130 million)
and lack of qualified human resources
• Growth pattern: the growth relies on high rate of
investment (up to ~40%) and low efficiency of
factor input
G  G f input  G f efficiency
Energy Use and
GHG Emission in China
China’s Energy Use (Mtoe)
Total energy
consumption
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Hydroelectricity+Nuclear
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
966.7
1000.0
1057.8
1228.7
1423.5
1566.7
1697.8
656.7
223.6
21.5
54.12
697.6
227.9
24.1
66.74
733.6
247.4
25.7
70.86
871.9
271.7
29.9
74.01
1012.1
318.9
35.0
91.43
1119.8
327.8
41.2
101.86
1212.3
349.8
50.0
106.59
Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007
Alternative Projections of China’s Primary
Energy Demand in Future
IEA, 2007
2015
4073 Mtce
2030
5456 Mtce
2020
3000 Mtce
2030
3857 Mtce
DRC, 2004
2020
3280 Mtce
Wang, 2007
2020
3974 Mtce
2030
6028 Mtce
ERI, 2007
Energy intensive Demand:
Investment, consumption, and net
export
• Industry used about 71% of the total energy
in 2005 and 2006;
• Such six sectors as (1) ferrous and (2)
nonferrous metal, (3) raw chemical
materials and chemical products, (4) nonmetallic and (5) metallic mineral products,
and (6) petroleum refining, coking, and
nuclear fuel, account for 72% of the
industrial energy use, more than 50% of the
total.
• A large gap exists in energy efficiency in these sectors
between China and international standard.
Estimation of China’s Recent GHG
Emission (Mt-CO2)
• IEA:5101 in 2005
• WRI:5204.8 in 2004
• CDIAC :5010 in 2004
• China:5600 in 2004
Alternative Projections of China’s GHG
Emissions in Future
IEA 2007
2015 8,631 Mt-CO2
2,354 Mt-c
2030 11,447 Mt-CO2
3,122 Mt-c
2020 6,563 Mt-CO2
1,790 Mt-c
2030 8,617 Mt-CO2
2,350 Mt-c
DRC 2004
2020 7,231 Mt-CO2
1,972 Mt-c
Wang, 2007
2020 8,177 Mt-CO2
2,230 Mt-c
2030 10,630 Mt-CO2
2,899 Mt-c
ERI 2007
Scenarios of Primary Energy
Demand in China (BAU) -RUC
700000
600000
煤炭
石油
天然气
水电
核电
生物质能
风能
太阳能
万吨标准煤
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2005
2020
2030
年 份
2050
Scenarios of Primary Energy Demand in
China (with policies) - RUC
600000
500000
煤炭
石油
天然气
水电
核电
生物质能
风能
太阳能
万吨标准煤
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2005
2020
2030
年 份
2050
Scenarios of CO2 Emission from
Fossil Fuel (BAU) - RUC
4000
3500
百万吨碳
3000
2500
2000
1500
基准情景
政策情景
1000
2005
2020
2030
年 份
2050
Coefficients for both BAU and
Policy Scenarios - RUC
Indicators
BAU
With Policies
Energy Use(100
Mtce)
2020:44
2030:51
2050:58
2020:39
2030:45
2050:50
Growth Rate of
Energy Use %
2005-20:5.1
2020-50:0.9
2005-20:4.2
2020-50:0.8
Elasticity of Energy
Use
2005-20:0.65
2020-50:0.22
2005-20:0.54
2020-50:0.20
CO2 emission (t-C)
2020:32.7
2050: 36
2020: 26.8
2050: 28.6
Response Measures
Near-term (5~10 years)
• Public awareness improvement: low carbon
economy, new lifestyle
• Development of policy implementation system
• Infrastructure investment with high-efficient
technologies (power, transportation, and
buildings) to prevent from Lock-in Effects
• Efficiency improvement in high-energy-intensive
sectors
• LUUCF for keeping and increasing carbon sink
• Capacity building for R&D of low-carbon
technologies and policy enforcement, and
development of human resources
Long-term (20~30 years)
• Mature policy and institutional system
(standards/norms, Cap-and-Trade, and
environmental taxation; monitoring and
verifiability, etc)
• Much higher R&D investment and companies
become a major driven force
• Mature financial mechanism linking capital
markets: Public-Private-Partnership
• Commercialized ESTs in major sectors at
international level
Technology change will be a key
• What’s technology? (a system)
• What’s transfer of technology? (in place and
effective)
• What’s development of technology?
• What’s diffusion and deployment of technology?
• What conditions and infrastructure are needed?
• What awareness we need to develop to address
the contradiction between the protection of climate
change as global public goods and IPR as private
goods? How can we coordinate this?
Preliminary identification of barriers of
technology transfer
• barriers from provider side
– Political will and politician and entrepreneur’s
awareness on global public goods
– Technology export ban
– Market forces: e.g. monopoly tendency by
technology owners
– Very high expectation for revenue
– Inadequacy of economic incentives from
public policies
Preliminary identification of barriers of
technology transfer
• Barriers from receiver side
– Awareness
– Knowledge and information
– human resources
– Financial resources
– Lack of monitoring and enforcement of technological
norms and regulations
– Lack of economic incentives: taxation, clarification of
PR, including IPR
– Divided institutional arrangement
• Infrastructure Barriers
– Transportation and telecommunication
– Enabling legal basis and policies
Risks and Challenges
• Awareness and lifestyle
• High pressure of population and employment
call for high growth rate and lead to massive
inputs of resources
• Rural population and infrastructure: incremental
energy use
• Lock-in by low efficient technologies in
infrastructure (transport, power, and buildings)
• Human resources for next several decades
• Managing increasing financial resources
Conclusion
• China’s energy use and GHG emission will
continue to increase, but may be in a more
sustainable manner
• Awareness and policy infrastructure should go in
advance of the implementation of policy
instruments as a learning process
• Recent focuses should be on specific sectors
and technologies
• International cooperation is needed, incl. an
innovative, PPP-based financial mechanism to
support R&D, transfer, and deployment of CSTs
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
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