Genetically Modified Crops/Foods: The
Future of the World Agricultural Economy?
C. Ford Runge, Ph.D.
University of Minnesota
April 15, 2005
Global analysis
 Surveys the global diffusion of biotech crops at
end of 2004
 Four-part study
– Analyzes global market adoption and commercial value
– Summarizes historical R&D activity by crop and by
country – 63 countries and 57 crops
– Profiles country-level activity
– Assesses tiers of country activity and spheres of biotech
influence around the globe now and in the future
 Approval and trial data based on data collected
by UN FAO, World Bank, European Commission
and other public databases
Scope of diffusion
 Four stages of crop development
–
–
–
–
Commercial production
Regulatory approval processes
Field trials
Lab and greenhouse studies
 Bottom line: plant biotech diffusion is rapid and
widespread
Biotech goes global
Identified 63 countries that have conducted biotech
research on one or more of
57 food and fiber crops as of 2004
Wide range of crops
16 Field Crops
14 Vegetables
16 Fruits
11 other crops
Alfalfa
Barley
Canola
Cassava
Clover
Cotton
Flax
Maize
Rice
Safflower
Sorghum
Soybean
Sugar Beet
Sugar Cane
Sunflower
Wheat
Broccoli
Cabbage
Carrot
Cauliflower
Cucumber
Eggplant
Lettuce
Onion
Pea/Bean
Pepper
Potato
Spinach
Squash
Tomato
Apple
Banana
Cantaloupe
Cherry
Citrus
Coconut
Grape
Kiwi
Mango
Melon
Papaya
Pineapple
Plum
Raspberry
Strawberry
Watermelon
Chicory
Cocoa
Coffee
Garlic
Lupins
Mustard
Oil Palm
Oilseed Poppy
Olive
Peanut
Tobacco
57 fruits, vegetables, field crops and other plants – ranging from lab
trials to commercial production
Biotech value
 Total market value of biotech crops in
2003-2004: $44 billion
– Soybeans: $23.5 billion
– Maize: $11.2 billion
– Cotton: $7.8 billion
– Canola: $1.4 billion
Biotech value
 Five countries account for 98 percent of the value:
– United States: $27.5 billion (maize, soy, cotton and
canola)
– Argentina: $8.9 billion (maize and soy)
– China: $3.9 billion (cotton)
– Canada: $2 billion (canola, maize and soy)
– Brazil: $1.6 billion (soy)
Global R&D diffusion
 R&D activity has been wider and much deeper
than commercial adoption
–
–
–
–
Field crops: 16 in 55 countries
Vegetables: 14 in 50 countries
Fruits: 16 in 29 countries
Other crops: 11 in 29 countries
Potential to increase rapidly
 Several crops could reach commercial production
quickly, rapidly increasing adoption and value
– Biotech soybeans or maize could be quickly
implemented in China
– If half of the 16.2 million and 114 million metric tons,
respectively, were planted to biotech, global value of the
crops would grow by $2.5 billion
Potential for developing countries
 More than half of the 63 countries engaged in
biotech R&D are in the developing world
 Asia
– China is aggressively engaged, investing hundreds of
millions of dollars annually in research with huge market
potential
– India has at least 20 institutions involved in R&D
 Latin America
– Argentina and Brazil are rapid adopters and poised for
further growth
 Africa
– South Africa has the capacity and resources to lead the
continent in R&D and expanding crop acreage
Developed countries
 Canada has produced, approved or field tested a
wider variety of field crops than any other country
 Australia has an active biotech sector, is growing
biotech cotton and has import or other approval
on seven major crops
 U.S. remains the leading adopter and major
center of R&D activity
The European situation
 Pockets of European opposition have received
disproportionate attention
 R&D has been and remains active on a wide
variety of crops
 European Commission’s Joint Research Center
reports 1,849 biotech field trials from 1991 to
present
 If regulatory framework is clarified, the EU can
recover quickly from its dormant state
Tiers and spheres
 Tier one: leaders
– Major commercial adopters: U.S., Argentina, China,
Canada, and Brazil
– Other significant R&D activity: Australia, Western
Europe, Mexico and South Africa
 Tier two: emerging
– Indonesia, Egypt and India
– Limited by resources, regulation and technical capacity
 Tier three
– Rest of the world
Future trends: past is prologue
 Major expansions in adoption and development
still to come
 Range of approvals will grow, creating new
opportunities
 Acreage expected to expand significantly,
particularly in Asia, Latin America and Africa
 North America, Western Europe, China,
Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Australia and
India are centers of influence that will lead
future development
a
A
P
P
P
F
L
a
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
L
L
F
Sorghum
F
Safflower
Clover
F
F
F
F
F
L
F
F
F
Sunflower
L
F
F
F
F
L
Cassava
Sugar cane
F
F
Alfalfa
F
F
F
F
F
F
L
L
Barley
F
Wheat
A
A
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
p
A
F
L
L
F
L
F
F
L
a
A
A
A
P
P
p
A
A
a
F
F
Flax
P
P
a
a
Sugar beet
P
P
a
P
P
F
F
a
P
F
a
F
P
F
A
Canola
A
P
P
F
P
P
P
a
P
F
Rice
P
P
a
a
P
A
F
a
P
P
a
F
P
Maize
Canada
United States
Australia
West Europe (15/15)
Argentina
Mexico
China
Japan
South Africa
Brazil
South Korea
Indonesia
Uruguay
Egypt
East Europe (7/12)
India
Colombia
Philippines
Paraguay
Chile
Honduras
Belize
Cuba
Thailand
Venezuela
Zimbabwe
Bolivia
Costa Rica
New Zealand
Malaysia
Pakistan
Morocco
Bangladesh
Kenya
Cotton
FIELD CROPS
by COUNTRY
Soybean
Field Crops by Country
F
L
F
F
L
L
F
F
F
F
L
L
L
L
L
L
commercial Production
regulatory Approval
Field study
Lab / greenhouse
P
A
F
L
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
L
L
Spinach
F
P
F
F
Broccoli
F
L
F
Cauliflower
F
F
F
Onion
F
Eggplant
F
F
Carrot
Cucumber
F
F
Cabbage
Lettuce
F
P
A
Pea/Bean
F
A
A
F
a
P
A
F
F
F
F
Pepper
F
A
A
a
a
F
F
F
F
Squash
West Europe (13/15)
United States
Canada
Australia
Japan
China
Mexico
Brazil
Egypt
Thailand
Argentina
East Europe (7/12)
Cuba
Zimbabwe
Bolivia
Peru
South Africa
Kenya
Guatemala
New Zealand
South Korea
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Chile
Colombia
Bangladesh
Philippines
Tunisia
Tomato
VEGETABLES
by COUNTRY
Potato
Vegetables by Country
L
L
F
F
F
L
F
F
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
F
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
F
commercial Production
regulatory Approval
Field study
Lab / greenhouse
P
A
F
L
L
F
L
L
L
L
F
F
F
L
L
Strawberry
Watermelon
Citrus
Cherry
Cantaloupe
Kiwi
Raspberry
Plum
Grape
Banana
F
L
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
L
Coconut
F
F
F
F
F
F
Mango
F
A
F
F
L
F
A
F
Apple
P
Pineapple
United States
West Europe (8/15)
Australia
Canada
Mexico
Cuba
Philippines
China
Egypt
Japan
South Africa
Brazil
Malaysia
Chile
Venezuela
Colombia
Costa Rica
Bangladesh
Thailand
Melon
FRUITS by
COUNTRY
Papaya
Fruits by Country
L
L
L
L
F
L
F
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
commercial Production
regulatory Approval
Field study
Lab / greenhouse
P
A
F
L
F
F
Garlic
Cocoa
F
Oil palm
F
Olive
F
Oilseed poppy
F
F
F
Lupins
Coffee
A
A
Mustard
P
a
Peanut
United States
West Europe (9/15)
Australia
China
Brazil
Canada
East Europe (1/12)
South Korea
India
Mexico
Indonesia
Chile
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Venezuela
Philippines
Argentina
Cuba
Japan
Chicory
OTHER CROPS
by COUNTRY
Tobacco
Other Crops by Country
F
F
L
F
F
F
F
F
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
commercial Production
regulatory Approval
Field study
Lab / greenhouse
P
A
F
L
Global Biotech Crop Area:
Leading Countries
Five leading
counties
United States
Argentina
Canada
Brazil
China
Area in biotech
crop production
Share of
world
biotech
area
67.5 million hectares
98%
42.8 million hectares
13.9 million hectares
4.4 million hectares
3.0 million hectares
2.8 million hectares
63%
21%
6%
4%
4%
biotech crop varieties:
maize, cotton, soy, canola
soy, maize, cotton
canola, maize, soy
soy
cotton
Global Biotech Crop Value:
Leading Countries
2003/04
Biotech-related
crop value*
2003/04
Biotech-related
crop value*
Five countries:
$43.9 billion
Four crops:
$43.9 billion
United States
$27.5 billion
Soybean
$23.5 billion
Argentina
$8.9 billion
Maize
$11.2 billion
China
$3.9 billion
Cotton
$7.8 billion
Canada
$2.0 billion
Canola
$1.4 billion
Brazil
$1.6 billion
Global Biotech Soybean Value:
Leading Countries
Soybean
2003/04
price = $250/MT
Crop area (1)
M Ha
Production (2)
MMT
Biotech
adoption rate
Biotech-related
crop value (3)
Five countries:
74.2
171.8
54%
$23.5 billion
United States
29.2
65.8
81%
$13.3 billion
Brazil
21.3
53.5
12%
$1.6 billion
Argentina
14.0
34.0
98%
$8.3 billion
China
8.7
16.2
-
-
Canada
1.1
2.3
50%
$284 million
Rest of the world
13.8
18.3
*
*
Global Biotech Maize Value:
Leading Countries
Maize
2003/04
price = $100/MT
Crop area *
M Ha
Production **
MMT
Biotech
adoption rate
Biotech-related
crop value***
Five countries:
68.5
434.5
19%
$11.2 billion
United States
28.8
256.9
40%
$10.3 billion
China
23.5
114.0
-
-
Brazil
12.6
41.5
-
-
Argentina
2.1
12.5
40%
$500 million
Canada
1.2
9.6
40%
$384 million
Rest of the world
71.9
179.5
-
-
Global Biotech Cotton Value:
Leading Countries
Cotton
2003/04
price = $0.59/lb.
Crop area *
M Ha
Production **
M Bales
Biotech
adoption rate
Biotech-related crop
value***
Five countries:
11.2
46.7
61%
$7.8 billion
China
5.1
22.4
62%
$3.9 billion
United States
4.9
18.3
73%
$3.8 billion
Brazil
1.0
5.7
-
-
Argentina
0.3
0.4
60%
$75 million
-
-
-
-
21.4
46.8
-
-
Canada
Rest of the world
Global Biotech Canola Value:
Leading Countries
Canola
2003/04
price = $285/MT
Crop area *
M Ha
Production **
MMT
Biotech
adoption rate
Biotech-related
crop value***
Five countries:
12.6
18.8
28%
$1.43 billion
China
7.5
11.4
-
-
Canada
4.7
6.7
68%
$1.29 billion
United States
.4
.7
73%
$138 million
Argentina
-
-
-
-
Brazil
-
-
-
-
13.4
20.2
-
-
Rest of the world