Diffusion of Innovations
“Make a better mousetrap and the world
will beat a path to your door.” –Ralph
Waldo Emerson
“Not necessarily.”
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Introduction
Diffusion – a process by which an innovation is
communicated through certain channels over time
among members of a social system
Innovation – an idea, practice, or object that is
perceived as new by an individual or other unit of
adoption
Hardware
Software
Example – QWERTY vs.. Dvorak
Home keys: 32% vs. 70%
Left hand (57%) vs.. Right hand (56%)
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Overview of Issues
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Innovation
Social System
Time (Decision-making)
Communication Channels
Consequences
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1. Innovation
A. Origins
Needs/problems
Developers (skunkworks – Lockheed, 1943)
Poachers (Fax 1843, Alexander Bain, clockmaker,
RCA, Xerox, Sharp)
Consumers
Serendipitously (Major Technologies for Heart
Surgery/Treatment (41% no relation))
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Innovation cont.
B. Key Characteristics
Relative Advantage
Compatibility
Complexity
Trialability
Observability
Adaptability (Re-invention)
Joseph Zimmerman
1948 Answering Machine
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Characteristics cont.
Relative Advantage
Economic
Status
Compatibility
Values, beliefs (hot water)
Previous ideas
Complexity
Software
Hardware
1st cell call, Oct.1983
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Characteristics cont
Trialability
Experimenting without commitment
Observability
Immediate
Long-term (AIDS prevention)
Adaptability
Customize
Use for unintended purposes
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Example
Cell Phone
Relative Advantage
Compatibility
Complexity
Trialability
Observability
Adaptability
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Innovation & Value
Match the Examples
Toothbrush with
angled brush
Detergents with
improved cleaning
power
QWERTY Key Board
Satellite Radio
Cell Phone
Linux operating
System
Google
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Innovation cont.
C. So what?
Increase incentives
Increase visibility of results
Avoid the “empty vessel fallacy”
Be attentive to naming
Encourage “tinkering”
Decrease perceived complexity (use role-models)
Allow trial periods
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2. Social System
A. Definition – a set of interrelated units engaged in
a joint problem-solving to accomplish a common
goal.
B. Key elements
Innovators
Early adopters
Early majority
Late majority
Laggards
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B. Key elements
Innovators
Cosmopolites
Venturesome
Early Adopters
Opinion-leaders
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6994382959717863945&q=Walter+Mossberg&total=93&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=1
Localites
Early Majority
Deliberate
Interact frequently with peers
Late majority (Skeptical)
Laggards (Traditional conventional)
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Comparison of Adopter Types
Dimension
Early
Late
Age
Formal Education
Socio-economic background
Intelligence
Dogmatism
Empathy
Rationality
Cope with uncertainty
Aspirations
Social participation
Networks
Exposure to mass media
Contact with “change agents”
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C. Social System – The Big Picture
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Social System – The Big Picture
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Social System cont.
D. So What?
Segment your audience
Stress different features of the innovation with
different audiences
Recognize that the “change agent” may not be
the best person to persuade certain groups.
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3. Time (Decision-making process)
A. Stages
Knowledge
Persuasion
Decision
Implementation
Confirmation
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Stages cont.
Knowledge stage
Recall of information
Comprehension of messages
Knowledge or skill to make adoption
Persuasion stage
Liking the innovation
Discussing new behavior with others
Accepting messages about innovation
Forming positive opinions
Supporting innovation
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Stages cont.
Decision stage
Form intention to seek more information
Form intention to try innovation
Implementation stage
Use the innovation on a regular basis
Acquire additional information
Confirmation stage
Recognizing the benefits
Integrating the innovation into routine
Promote to others
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Decision-making Process
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Stages cont.
B. So what?
Recognize that adoption is not a one-shot
decision
• Active rejection
• Passive rejection
Use mass media in the 1st phase
Use interpersonal networks in phases 2 –5
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4. Communication channels
A. Important channels
Change agents
Mass media
Interpersonal networks
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Change agents
Examples – teachers, consultants, public health workers, agricultural
extension agents, salespeople etc. (linkers)
Roles
Develop need
Establish information-sharing relationship
Diagnosis problems
Create intent to change
Translate intent into action
Stabilize adoption
Methods
Foster credibility
Emphasize homophily
Focus on clients
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Mass media
Hypodermic needle model
Two-step flow model
Multi-step flow
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Interpersonal Channel
Established through personal networks of
like people
Achieving critical mass (80-20 rule)
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Channels cont.
B. So What?
Recognize limits of mass media
Distinguish between “competence” and
“interpersonal” credibility
Develop strategy linked to phases and timing
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5. Consequences
A. Dimensions
Form
physical appearance
Function –
usage pattern
Meaning –
sense making,
categorizing
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Consequences cont.
B. Types
Desirable versus undesirable (productivity,
higher income, equity etc.)
Direct versus indirect
Anticipated versus unanticipated
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Example - Segway
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Consequences cont.
C. So what?
Anticipate both positive & negative consequences
Recognize that some important consequences will
emerge over time
Discuss the implicit tradeoffs made by adoption
Realize that an innovations benefits and liabilities are
not easily separated.
Monitor the meanings associated with the innovation.
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6. The Gartner Hype Cycle
(One more angle)
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2006 Predictions
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