Influencing Policy Makers in a
Changing Environment
Presentation by Jean-Mari Peltier,
President of the National Council of
Farmer Cooperatives
Election Day Prognostication
• Razor tight Presidential Margins
• House: 30 seat turnover
– Democrats need 12 seat net gain
– Likely continued Republican Control
• Senate: 8 of 34 are open seats
– Democrats need net gain of 2 if Bush wins
– 8% turnover
2004 Electoral Map
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
VT-3
MT-3
ND-3
MN-10
OR-7
ID-4
SD-3
MI-17
WY-3
NV-5
NE-3
PA-21
IA-7
UT-5
IL-21
CO-9
NY
-31
WI-10
KS-6
CA-55
MO-11
IN
11
OH
20
NM-5
OK-7
WV
5
KY-8
VA
13
TN-11
AR-6
SC-8
HI-4
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
TX-34
LA-9
Solid or leaning Bush
Solid or leaning Kerry
Toss Up
MA-12
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
NC-15
AZ-10
ME
4
FL
27
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
Shifting Farm Committees
• House Agriculture: 51% turnover since ’02
• Senate Agriculture: New Chair
– Tom Harkin?
– Pat Roberts?
– Saxby Chamblis?
Agriculture Members Changes:
Dooley, Ose, Smith, Putnam, Neugebauer or Stenholm?
Cochran?
Changes in the Agencies too…
• Average tenure: 18 months
• Speculation on several cabinet members
• Who might be in a Kerry Cabinet?
U.S. Demographics– The changing
nature of rural America
•
•
•
•
1% population; 1%GDP
7/8 rural counties dominated by non-farm
Population growth slowing
Market growth focused on changing consumer
preferences, not larger population
• Baby boomers nearing retirement
• Non-farm interests in farm bill expenditures
• Specialty crops/value added
Farm Income and Government Payments
Billion dollars
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Net Farm Cash Income
Net farm cash income
less
direct gov't payments
Direct government payments
(emergency/miscellaneous is red area)
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
Significant farm policy influences:
•
•
•
•
•
Overall health of the farm economy
U.S. demographics
Global trade rules
Regulatory Challenges/
Consumer/environmental interests
Regulatory Challenges
•
•
•
•
Environmental regulation
Changing emphasis in Farm Bill programs
Food Safety regulation
Food Security concerns
Agricultural Trade
• Imports up nearly 50% since 1996 (fruits &
vegetables…)
• Soybeans -- Brazil & Argentina
• Countries of former Soviet Union
• Textiles and Cotton (WTO case)
• Fertilizer and competitiveness
U.S. Ag Trade: A Disappearing Surplus
Billion dollars per fiscal year
70
Exports
Imports
Balance
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
U. S. Federal Budget Outlook
Farm bill
debate,
Doha round
Billion dollars
450
300
These forecasts include recent extension of expiring
tax provisions but no extension of other expiring
provisions or making 2001 tax cuts permanent.
2002
farm
bill
150
0
-150
-300
1996
farm
bill
-450
Total surplus or deficit*
-600
Total excluding social security*
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
*Total surplus or deficit includes social security trust funds & postal service. On budget
estimates exclude trust funds.
Farmer Cooperatives are major
players:
• 28% of farm supply sales
• 29% of all commodities marketed
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How Will Coop Voices by Effective?
• What are the issues critical survival of my
farming entity?
• What are the issues critical to survival of
my cooperative?
• How do we address these issues most
effectively?
Effectiveness
• Coalitions
– Agriculture – Others?
Education
Turnover
One on one
Tours, Dinners, Washington Conference
Grassroots Network
Do I react? PACs? Website
Brings new meaning to Benjamin
Franklin’s words...
• We must all hang together
….or assuredly we shall all hang
separately!