Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
Research Article
TSUNAMI PROPAGATION IN ARABIAN SEA AND ITS
EFFECT ON PORBANDAR, GUJARAT, INDIA
V M Patel1, H S Patel2, A P Singh3
Address for Correspondence
1
2
Ganpat University, Ganpat Vidyanagar, Mehsana-384002, Gujarat, India.
Department of Applied Mechanics, L. D. College of Engg., Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
3
Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
1
E- Mail vmpatel001@yahoo.com, 2dr.hspatel@yahoo.com,3apsingh07@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Almost all of the recorded tsunamis along the Arabian Peninsula have occurred on its eastern and southern edge,
some, such as the one formed by the 1945 Makran earthquake, were extremely destructive. The Indian Ocean is the
most likely source area for future destructive tsunamis (Jordan, 2008 & Rastogi, 2006). The most significant
tsunamigenic earthquake in recent times was that of 28 November 194521:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of
8.1 (Mw). In this paper an attempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the Makran
Subduction Zone, and its propagation into the Arabian Sea and its effect on the Porbandar city of Gujarat, India,
through the use of a numerical model. It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami
waves at the Porbandar is in good agreement with the available data sources. In this study more importance has been
given to the run up height of tsunami waves, arrival time and inundation map. Also effect of different fault
parameters on basic data is also studied.
KEYWORDS Earthquake, Tsunami, Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), Numerical Modeling, Porbandar .
INTRODUCTION
plate
The disaster of 26 December 2004 underscores
segments of lengths of about 200 km each in
the need to understand the Indian Ocean tsunami
1483 (58–60°E), 1851 and also 1864 (61–63°E),
sources. A search for older regional tsunamis
1945 (63–65°E), and 1765 (65–67°E) (Byrne &
exposes the possibility that other potential
Sykes, 1992) (Fig. 1-A & 1-B). Out of all these
source zones may exist in the Indian Ocean and
earthquakes only the 1945 earthquake is known
Arabian Sea (Cummins, 2007, Bapat, 2007 &
to have caused a large tsunami, followed by a
Murty, 1999). With reference to eastern coast &
large aftershock in 1947 immediately to the
southern coast, western coast of India is having
south. The western Makran zone has no clear
very less numbers of tsunami recorded in the
record of historic great earthquakes. Absence of
past. Because of it, very less work has been done
frequent
on tsunamigenic sources and possible tsunami
seismic subduction occurs or that the plate
hazard from earthquakes in the Arabian Sea and
boundary is currently locked and experiences
Western coast of India particularly Porbandar.
great earthquakes with long repeat periods
Due to unavailability of data, Government and
(Dimri, 2007). One of the most deadly tsunamis
people in this region are not so active for
ever recorded in the Arabian Sea occurred with
protective
great
its epicenter located in the offshore of Pansi in
earthquakes in Makran may have ruptured the
the northern Arabian Sea, about 100 km south of
measures.
Five
of
the
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
boundary
in
earthquakes
four
different
indicates
rupture
either
that
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
Churi (Baluchistan), Pakistan at 21.56 UTC
this region is going on increase. Hence, the
(03.26 IST) on November 28, 1945. More than
accurate modeling of tsunami hazard from the
4000 people lost their life along the Makran
earthquake and early warning system of
coast of Pakistan by both the earthquake and
tsunamis for a coastal community is of great
tsunami. The tsunami was responsible for great
importance in this area.
loss of life and destruction along the coasts of
NUMERICAL MODELING
India, Pakistan, Iran. The earthquake’s Richter
Numerical modeling of tsunamis is commonly
Magnitude (Ms) was 7.8 (Pendse, 1948) & the
carried out to better understand events that have
Moment Magnitude (Mw) was revaluated to be
occurred either during or before historical times.
8.1 (Byrne et al, 1992).
Numerical modeling can also help to predict the
The sesimotectonics of the MSZ, historical
effects of a future tsunami.
earthquakes in the region, and the recent
The present study uses the finite difference code
earthquake of October 8, 2005 are indicative of
of TUNAMI – N2 to predict wave propagation
the active tectonic collision process that is taking
(Imamura, 2005). The rupture parameters, as
place along the entire southern and southeastern
provided by Jaiswal et. al. (2008) was used for
boundary of the Eurasian plate as it collides with
the source of 1945 earthquake for validation of
the Indian plate and adjacent micro plates.
programme. Along with this some another
Tectonic stress transference to other, stress
probable parameters have been taken for the
loaded
trigger
study (Rajendran, 2008). Static displacement on
tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Northern
the surface of an elastic half space due to elastic
Arabian Sea in the future.
dislocation was computed on the basis of
According to popular legends, in the 10th
equations provided by Mansinha et al (1971).
century, Porbandar was known as Pauravelakul
Tsunamis which are mainly generated by the
and was later renamed Sudamapuri after the
movement of sea bottom due to earthquakes
childhood
Krishna.
belong to long waves. In the theory of such
Porbandar was a prosperous port during the
waves, the vertical acceleration of water
Mughal period and thereafter retained its
particles are negligible compared to the
importance as a seat of maritime activities. The
gravitational acceleration except for an oceanic
popularity of Porbandar in the present day is
propagation
attributed to its affiliation with the Father of the
Consequently, the vertical motion of water
Nation, Mahatma Gandhi. The city is the
particles has no effect on the pressure
birthplace of this great patriot and leader. In last
distribution. It is a good approximation that the
few years on western coast of India particularly
pressure is hydrostatic.
in Porbandar, good numbers of big projects have
Based
been established. With the results population in
neglecting
tectonic
regions
companion
of
could
Lord
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
of
upon
the
tsunami
these
(Kajiura,
1963).
approximations
vertical
acceleration,
and
the
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
following two dimensional equations (this is
into shallower water (Shuto et.al., 1985, 1986).
called the shallow water theory) were used.
Therefore each tsunami wavelength should be
covered by at least 20 grid points. Ramming and
Kowalik (1980) found that 10 grid points per
……….Eq. -1
wave length is sufficient if we are willing to
accept 2% error in the phase velocity. Still
(2D Mass Momentum Equation) ……..Eq. -2
another reason is that numerical stability
considerations require that the finite differences
time step be such that
……….Eq. -3
where D is the total water depth given by h+η,
τx and τy the bottom frictions in the x and y
directions, A the horizontal eddy viscosity
which is assumed to be constant in space, the
shear stress on a surface wave is neglected. M
and N are the discharge fluxes in the x- and ydirections.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The bathymetric grid was built from General
Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) 30
second database and updated with the help of
latest hydrograph charts of Gujarat Maritime
Board (GMB). Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) data has been used to
accurately map the land heights (topography). In
this study four nested domains, namely A, B, C,
D are used. The increased resolution is essential
in order to simulated as best as possible the
travel time and tsunami amplitude of the waves.
For grids A and B, the model is run in the linear
mode which, although not good enough for runup estimates, but it is good enough for travel
time estimates. Another reason for increasing
resolution is to diminish numerical dispersion
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
Δt ≤ [Δx / √(2gh)],
where Δx is the space discretization size, g the
gravitational acceleration, and h is the maximum
depth in the given grid. As the wave propagates
into shallower waters h decreases and by
decreasing Δx we can maintain a constant Δt
(Goto and Ogawa 1992).
The initial displacement is generated in the
exterior domain (A), and it is interpolated into
the higher resolution grids B, C and D. The end
result is an initial sea surface profile that extends
smoothly from the exterior, lower resolution,
domain into the higher resolution domains. The
tsunami propagation states at every 1-min
interval are simulated. In this study, model outer
domain has a horizontal resolution of 2700 m
over the Arabian Sea including the Indian subcontinent (7–26N and 62–80E). The simulation
is carried out for duration of 360 min and the
Sea states at 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 min
in the Arabian Sea are presented in (Fig-2 A to
E). The wave amplitude varies with the forward
motion of the tsunami waves. Boundary
conditions play a significant factor in the
separation of the land and ocean boundary.
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
Fig 1: Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ)
Fig- 2-A: Propagation at 0 min
Fig- 2-B: Propagation after 60 min.
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E-ISSN 0976-7916
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
Fig 2-C: Propagation after 120 min.
Fig 2-D: Propagation after 150 min.
Fig 2-E: Propagation after 180 min.
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Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
In order to validate quantitatively the simulation
coastal
and it is compared to the only available
susceptibility to inundation corresponding to
measurements of the 1945 Makran tsunami. The
various wave-heights. The Gujarat state has
results
important
obtained
are
configured with the
community
E-ISSN 0976-7916
and
installations
like
others
ports,
about
jetties,
available reports of 1945 Makran Tsunami
industries along the coast, and also other socio-
(Pendse, 1948) and also with results of Indian
economical perspective, which can be affected
Seismological
of
by tsunami trigged due to such events, and hence
Gandhinagar. (R.K.Jaiswal et.al., Nat Hazards
the determination of possible inundation areas is
2008).
important (Singh, 2008). Inundation model is
RESULTS
prepared for coastal parts of Gujarat belt on the
Model runs of eighty six earthquake events were
basis of existing topographic and bathymetric
simulated for a far source generated tsunami
(water depth) data sets. For preparation of the
caused by an offshore earthquake.
Table -1
inundation map, high resolution of SRTM data
shows the time of arrival of maximum amplitude
set has been used. Surfer-8.0 software is used to
of water waves and wave run up height at
plot elevation data. The different colors in Fig. 4
Porbandar (69.589, 21.640), Mandvi, Dwarka
present various elevations as 0–10 m are shown,
and Okha for different fault models of MSZ.
over the parts of Gujarat state. From this Figure
Fig. 3 (A to F) shows comparison of fault
we can infer that the Rann of Kutch region has
parameters on Run-up height at Porbandar. The
very low elevations, and therefore inundation
elevation data sets are the most important input
would be more due to tsunamigenic conditions
for inundation mapping in tsunami prone areas.
than other costal parts of Gujarat.
Research
Centre
Team
Preparation of a vulnerability map could inform
Fig -3-A: Comparision of Slip Variation at Porbandar
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Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
Fig -3-B: Comparision of Depth to Top (Focus) Variation at Porbandar
Fig -3-C: Comparision of Rake Variation at Porbandar
Fig -3-D: Comparision of Dip Variation at Porbandar
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
Fig -3-E: Comparision of Length Variation at Porbandar
Fig -3-F: Comparision of Width Variation at Porbandar
Fig -3-G: Comparision of Run-up Height with Diff. Epicenter for Porbandar
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
E-ISSN 0976-7916
Table 1. : Run Up Height and Time of Arrival for Diff. Models of Faults at Porbandar
RESULT SHEET
Sr. Length Width
Dip
No. (km) (km)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
200
200
200
250
300
150
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
350
300
200
200
200
250
300
350
150
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
350
300
200
200
200
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
75
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
75
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
20
25
10
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
20
25
10
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
Depth
Depth
Long. to Top Strike Rake Slip of water
Lat. - y
x
(Focus)
(m)
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-5
-15
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-5
-15
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
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250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
240
260
230
270
250
250
250
250
250
250
240
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
240
260
230
270
250
250
250
250
250
250
240
250
250
250
10
8
12
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
12
12
10
8
12
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
12
12
10
8
12
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
27
27
27
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
62.23
63.48
63.48
63.48
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25.09
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25.05
25.05
25.05
Arr.
Time
(min.)
185
185
185
185
186
185
184
185
185
187
182
188
185
186
185
186
185
186
184
175
175
175
175
176
176
174
189
175
175
177
171
183
175
175
174
175
174
176
173
157
166
166
Runup
ht.
(m)
1.12
0.89
1.35
1.23
1.54
1.09
0.71
0.84
0.84
0.9
0.76
0.63
1.25
1.37
0.96
1.01
1.16
1.54
1.82
1.28
1.01
1.54
1.38
1.65
1.89
1.2
0.85
0.95
0.95
0.94
0.82
0.59
1.43
1.55
1.1
1.14
1.31
1.89
2.28
1.30
1.03
1.56
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
Continue from the previous page….
43
250
100
15
-10
44
300
100
15
-10
45
150
100
15
-10
46
200
50
15
-10
47
200
75
15
-10
48
200
100
15
-10
49
200
100
15
-10
50
200
100
15
-10
51
200
100
15
-10
52
200
100
20
-10
53
200
100
25
-10
54
200
100
10
-10
55
200
100
15
-5
56
200
100
15
-15
57
350
100
15
-10
58
300
100
15
-10
59
350
100
15
-10
60
350
100
15
-10
61
300
100
15
-10
62
200
75
20
-10
63
200
100
15
-10
64
200
100
15
-10
65
300
100
15
-10
66
200
100
15
-15
67
300
100
15
-10
68
200
75
20
-10
69
200
100
15
-10
70
200
100
15
-10
71
300
100
15
-10
72
200
100
15
-15
73
300
100
15
-10
74
200
75
20
-10
75
200
100
15
-10
76
200
100
15
-10
77
300
100
15
-10
78
200
100
15
-15
79
300
100
15
-10
80
200
75
20
-10
81
200
100
15
-10
82
200
100
15
-10
83
300
100
15
-10
84
200
100
15
-15
85
200
100
15
-10
86
200
100
15
-10
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
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250
250
250
250
250
240
260
230
270
250
250
250
250
250
250
240
240
230
240
240
250
250
250
250
240
240
250
250
250
250
240
240
250
250
250
250
240
240
250
250
250
250
250
250
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
12
12
12
12
10
10
12
10
10
10
10
10
12
10
10
10
10
10
12
10
10
10
10
10
12
10
10
10
10
10
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
128
128
128
128
128
128
29
29
29
29
29
29
234
234
234
234
234
234
168
168
168
168
168
168
243
23
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
61.61
61.61
61.61
61.61
61.61
61.61
62.855
62.855
62.855
62.855
62.855
62.855
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
63.48
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.99
60.863
63.607
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25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.05
25.045
25.045
25.045
25.045
25.045
25.045
25.025
25.025
25.025
25.025
25.025
25.025
24.968
24.968
24.968
24.968
24.968
24.968
25.041
25.041
25.041
25.041
25.041
25.041
25.09
25.05
167
167
165
165
166
166
168
162
169
166
167
166
167
166
178
175
165
162
179
178
180
180
181
170
169
168
170
170
171
170
164
163
165
165
165
165
183
143
184
184
146
145
186
152
1.57
2.06
1.14
0.83
0.97
0.97
0.96
0.85
0.48
1.45
1.57
1.11
1.15
1.36
2
2.42
2.73
3.08
1.67
1.31
1.41
1.51
1.43
1.46
2.14
1.64
1.66
1.39
1.73
1.46
2.1
1.51
1.59
1.32
1.59
1.39
1.48
1.26
1.35
1.12
1.28
1.16
1.09
0.58
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies
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Fig. -4: Inundation Map of Gujarat
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
scientific studies aimed at revealing the
Eastern and Western parts of the Makran
physical
Subduction Zone of southern Pakistan are
generation, propagation and inundation
potential zones for great earthquakes that can
and to establish seismic criteria for
generate tsunamis affecting west coast of India.
issuing tsunami warnings in the event of
The eastern part of the Makran zone has
an actual tsunami.
produced the 1945 Mw 8.0 earthquake that

processes
of
tsunami
When distance between Epi Center and
generated the last major tsunami in the Arabian
Location increases, time of arrival of
Sea. Some sectors of the Makran zone are un-
tsunami increases and run up height
ruptured for a long time and can produce large
decreases.

earthquakes in near future.
When width, length and dip angle
The basic grids have been prepared with the help
increases time of arrival of tsunami
of surfer 8.0, Global Mapper 9.0 and MatLab
decreases and run up height increases.
R2009a. Basic Numerical Modeling has been

done in TunamiN2. A programme made for run
up height and time of arrival of tsunami in
Arrival
time
is
decreasing
while
increasing depth of water.

At 260˚ orientation of failure plane
MatLab environment.
whole MSZ is having same effect at
The following conclusions can be drawn from
Porbandar, below which eastern Makran
this study:
is more effective and above it western

The
Numerical
modeling
is
an
appropriate tool and can be used for
JERS/Vol.I/ Issue II/Oct.-Dec.,2010/206-217
Makran is more effective.
Journal of Engineering Research and Studies

When depth to top of focus increases,
7.
effect of tsunami increases.

In comparision of other ports of western
coast of Gujarat, Porbandar is having
danger of tsunami. So, it should be
8.
developed very carefully.
9.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful to Dr. B. K. Rastogi
(D.G., ISR, G‘Nagar) for the permission of use
10.
of ISR library & other resource materials. We
also thank scientists and librarian of ISR,
11.
G’Nagar for their kind support for our research
work.
12.
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