STATE OF THE HOUSING:
EXISTING CONDITIONS AND OUR ABILITY TO PLAN FUTURE
REGIONAL LAND USE FOR CREATING HEALTHY & SUSTAINABLE
COMMUNITIES
Jamshid Damooei, PhD
Professor and Chair
Department of Econ, Finance & Accounting
Co-Director of the Center for Leadership and Values
School of Management
California Lutheran University.
13th Annual Ventura County Housing Conference,
September 18th, 2014
CONTENTS
Areas of Urban & Built-Up Land & Housing
Start Up
Home Ownership and Prices
Housing Affordability
Economic & Policy Implications for the
County, its Economy and Creation of
Sustainable Communities
AREAS OF URBAN & BUILT-UP LAND &
HOUSING START UP
Acres of Urban and Build-Up Land in Ventura County
(1984-2012)
120,000
100,000
Acres
80,000
77,613
80,657
83,603
87,859
89,035
1990
1992
91,541
92,883
1994
1996
95,522
97,236
1998
2000
105,461
102,874 104,280 105,233
99,789 101,841
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1984
1986
1988
2002
2004
2006
Source: The Calif. Dept. of Conservation, Farmland Conversion Reports,
http://www.conservation.ca.gov/
2008
2010
2012
AREAS OF URBAN & BUILT-UP LAND &
HOUSING START UP
New Housing Units Permitted in Ventura County
(2001-2013)
4500
4023
Housing Units Permitted
4000
3500
3567
3442
3000
2592
2449
2500
2000
1575
1500
1066
1000
710
500
195
624
410
354
264
2010
2011
2012
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits,
http://censtats.census.gov/
2013
HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES
Percentage of Owners and Renters in Ventura County
(2012)
Owner-occupied
Renter-occupied
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Ventura County
Oxnard
Ventura
Simi Valley
Source: American Community Survey, Selected Housing Characteristics,
http://factfinder2.census.gov/
Thaousand Oaks
HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES
Ventura County Median Home Price, July (2006-2014)
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity,
http://dqnews.com/
2013
2014
HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES
Ventura County Median Home Price (2013)
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity,
http://dqnews.com/
HOME OWNERSHIP AND PRICES
Ventura County Median Home Price & Notices of Default (Q1)
(2007-2014)
Notices of Default (Q1)
$600,000
3000
$500,000
2500
$400,000
2000
$300,000
1500
$200,000
1000
$100,000
500
$0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: DataQuick, California Home Sale Activity and California Foreclosures,
http://dqnews.com/
Notices of Default
Median Home Price $
Median Home Price
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Average 2 Bedroom Multifamily Remts & Rented Vacancy
Rate in Ventura County (2005-2012)
Rented Vacancy Rate (%)
$1,540
4.0%
$1,520
3.7%
$1,500
3.4%
$1,480
3.1%
$1,460
2.8%
$1,440
2.5%
$1,420
Rented Vacancy Rate %
Average Rent for 2BR $
Average Rent for 2BR ($)
2.2%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: 1) National Low Income Housing Coalition Out of Reach Reports, http://nlihc.org/oor/;
2) American Community Survey, Total Housing Units and Vacancy Status, http://factfinder2.census.gov/.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Median Family Income in Ventura County (2005-2012)
$88,000
$86,000
$84,000
$82,000
$80,000
$78,000
$76,000
$74,000
$72,000
$70,000
$68,000
2005, 1-year
estimates
2006, 1-year
estimates
2007, 3-year
estimates
2008, 3-year
estimates
2009, 5-year
estimates
2010, 5-year
estimates
2011, 5-year
estimates
Source: American Community Survey, Median Family Income in Past 12 Months,
http://factfinder2.census.gov/
2012, 5-year
estimates
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Housing Affordability Index (Q4 2013 - Q4 2014)
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
80
Affordability Index
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
San Bernardino
U.S.
Riverside
County
California
Los Angeles
Ventura
Orange County
Source: The California Association of Realtors, Housing Affordability Index,
http://www.car.org/
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Top ten metropolitan areas that have highest wages to afford a two
bedroom apartment
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition Out of Reach Reports,
http://nlihc.org/oor/
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Occupational employment and wages by major occupational group, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura
Metropolitan Statistical Area, May 2013
Major Occupational Group
Farming, fishing, and forestry
Food preparation and serving
related
Average hourly
wage
9.63
Annual wage
20,030
Approx hours a
week to afford a
Two-bedroom Total Employment in
Home
Occupation
120
6530
% of Group
Within Total
County
Employment
2%
10.52
21,882
110
28470
10%
Personal care and service
Building and grounds cleaning and
maintenance
Healthcare support
14.16
29,453
81
8990
3%
14.58
14.76
30,326
30,701
79
78
8410
7810
3%
3%
Transportation and material moving
Production
15.54
16.46
32,323
34,237
74
70
16870
19140
6%
7%
Office and administrative support
Sales and related
18.23
18.95
37,918
39,416
63
61
47820
35170
16%
12%
Installation, maintenance, and repair
22.65
47,112
51
9530
3%
Construction and extraction
23.95
49,816
48
9790
3%
Community and social services
24.11
50,149
48
3960
1%
Education, training, and library
25.86
53,789
45
17970
6%
Protective service
28.53
59,342
40
4010
1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages
http://www.bls.gov/
IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND
CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES
Take Away From What Have Been Discussed:
 Urban and Built-up lands has grown in the last three decades. The rate slowed down
in the last decade.
 The county experienced a much faster rate of building new home (measured by
number of permits as a proxy) in the first half of the last decade.
 There is a distinct difference in the proportional ratios of home owner and rental
occupancies in various citers within the county.
 Home prices suffered a sharp decline since 2006 and reached its lowest in 2011 (37%
overall decline) and began to rebound as of 2012 and since 2012 the median home
prices increased by about 25%.
 Various cities have different median home prices and the ratio is about 3.7 times
when Westlake village is compared with Piru.
 Notices of default reached its peak in 2009 (2648) and declined to 384 in 2014.
Median home prices changed little between 2009 to 2011. It went up much sharper
since 2012.
IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND
CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES
 Home affordability remains a major economic challenge for the county. A sustainable regional
economy should consider housing affordability as one of the most important elements of its effort to
create a healthy and sustainable community.
 Rented vacancy reached its lowest point of 1.0% in 2006. It went up to its highest level of 1.6% in 2011.
 Level of rent on average for a 2 bedroom multifamily changed around $100 during the period of 2005
to 2014. It has been consistently high at around $1420 to over $1500.
 Based on the latest data (First Quarter of 2014) only 29% of residents of Ventura County residents can
afford to buy homes at the prevailing median home prices in the county.This is down from 42% only a
year ago (in 2013).
 Ventura county is among the top ten metropolitan areas within the nation requiring a high wage level
to afford a two bedroom housing unit. To be able to afford a two bed room home, the wage rate had
to be $28.83 in Ventura County.
 Based on our research 15% (a total of 43,990 people) of workers in the county require two to three
full time jobs in order to afford 2-bedroom housing. 46% have to work one and a half to two jobs in
order to afford 2-bedroom housing (a total of 135,220 people). Finally, 77% of workers in the county
can not afford 2-bedroom housing with ONLY one full time job. (224,470 County residents)
IMPLICATION FOR THE COUNTY, ITS ECONOMY AND
CREATION OF SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES
 The economic consequences of low housing affordability are many. Here are a
selected number of them for our county, which explains the economic impacts
of the high cost of housing and/or investment to reduce it:
 More than 70% of our country residents cannot buy a home or afford a 2-bedroom
apartment on one full time job.
 High cost of accommodation is one of principal elements of businesses NOT moving
into an area.

Investment to increase affordable housing has the following impacts:
 Creation of jobs during the construction and after.
 Attracting employers and employees
 Increase consumer spending
 Increase government revenue
 Lower the risk of foreclosures.
 Lessen the number of mileage to travel from home to working place and back
and thus helping to reduce pollution.
THE END
Thank you.